Hey everyone, it's been a long time coming, but I'm finally ready to put up the results of what I've been working on over the season. I wanted to find a way to adjust a QB's play for what his defense does, and see how often a guy can overcome a bad performance from his defense, or likewise, fail to win even when the defense has a stellar game. In order to do that I needed a whole lot of data. Every single game a QB started or played most of the game (including postseason), the average amount of points a defense allowed in each year, and how often a QB won in those situations. So doing a lot of number crunching, and by examining the years in the Super Bowl Era, I came up with a list of 102 QB's, sorted by 4 separate eras marked by important rule changes or historical reasons.
To qualify for this list, a QB must have had 90 starts (including postseason), or 80 starts in the dead ball era (14 game seasons meant I needed a little leeway). Starts in this case are games where the QB played most of or all of the game. (Tom Brady doesn't get credit for starting the game where Bernard Pollard broke his leg, for example). By having the data for all of the eras, you can find the expected win percentage of a QB in games where their defense played well, and the expected win percentage when their defense played poorly. This list is sorted by the player with the most wins above replacement in a 16 game season, to the player with the least. With all of that in mind, let's go ahead and start this list.
Current List:
Tier 7: Garbage (2 or more wins below the average starter a season)
102. Archie Manning (New Orleans Saints) (-2.886)
Tier 6: Career Backup (1-2 wins below the average starter a season)
101. Chris Miller (Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams) (-1.335)
100. Jeff George (Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders) (-1.162)
99. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets, Bucs) (-1.123)
98. Steve DeBerg (San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Bucs and Kansas City Chiefs) (-1.055)
97. Norm Snead (Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants) (-1.028)
Tier 5: Journeyman (0.5-1 wins below the average starter a season)
96. Jon Kitna (Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions) (-0.865)
95. Ron Jaworski (Philadelphia Eagles) (-0.841)
94. Vinny Testaverde (Tampa Bay Bucs, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets) (-0.807)
93. Jim Harbaugh (Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, and San Diego Chargers) (-0.790)
92. Ken O'Brien (New York Jets) (-0.743)
91. Kerry Collins (Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans) (-0.713)
90. Jim Everett (Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints) (-0.602)
89. Greg Landry (Detroit Lions) (-0.586)
88. Lynn Dickey (Green Bay Packers) (-0.533)
87. Steve Beuerlein (Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers) (-0.530)
86. Joe Ferguson (Buffalo Bills) (-0.507)
Tier 4: Average (0.5 wins above to 0.5 wins below the average starter a season)
85. Aaron Brooks (New Orleans Saints) (-0.414)
84. Steve Bartkowski (Atlanta Falcons) (-0.413)
83. Daunte Culpepper (Minnesota Vikings) (-0.282)
82. Doug Williams (Washington Redskins) (-0.270)
81. Trent Dilfer (Tampa Bay Bucs and Baltimore Ravens) (-0.261)
80. Drew Bledsoe (New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys) (-0.253)
79. Richard Todd (New York Jets) (-0.249)
78. Jim Zorn (Seattle Seahawks) (-0.211)
77. Chris Chandler (Arizona Cardinals, Houston Oilers and Atlanta Falcons) (-0.117)
76. Jeff Blake (Cincinnati Bengals) (-0.110)
75. Jake Plummer (Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos) (-0.025)
74. Bernie Kosar (Cleveland Browns) (0.000)
73. Dan Pastorini (Houston Oilers) (0.051)
72. Jeff Garcia (San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.075)
71. Warren Moon (Houston Oilers, Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.081)
70. Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.091)
69. Brian Sipe (Cleveland Browns) (0.115)
68. Ken Anderson (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.147)
67. Jay Cutler (Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears) (0.165)
66. Bert Jones (Baltimore Colts) (0.218)
65. John Hadl (San Diego Chargers, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers) (0.238)
64. Boomer Esiason (Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets) (0.260)
63. Jim Plunkett (New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers and Oakland/L.A. Raiders) (0.286)
62. Jim Hart (St. Louis Cardinals) (0.294)
61. Craig Morton (Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Denver Broncos) (0.342)
60. Mark Brunell (Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins) (0.350)
59. Neil O'Donnell (Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets) (0.362)
58. Gus Frerotte (Washington Redskins, Lions, Broncos, Bengals, Vikings, Dolphins, Rams) (0.367)
57. Neil Lomax (St. Louis/Arizona Cardinals) (0.368)
56. Tommy Kramer (Minnesota Vikings) (0.375)
55. Dave Krieg (Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.379)
54. Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions) (0.412)
53. Marc Bulger (St. Louis Rams) (0.475)
52. Billy Kilmer (San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints and Washington Redskins) (0.476)
51. Jake Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) (0.483)
Tier 3: Good (0.5-1 wins above the average starter a season)
50. Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals, Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals) (0.568)
49. Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) (0.591) 48. Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) (0.591) (1.266 without adjustment)
47. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.608)
46. Bobby Hebert (New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons) (0.610)
45. Philip Rivers (San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers) (0.614)
44. Phil Simms (New York Giants) (0.639)
43. Roman Gabriel (Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.653)
42. Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans) (0.719)
41. Brad Johnson (Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.722)
40. Dan Fouts (San Diego Chargers) (0.738)
39. Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys) (0.748)
38. Trent Green (Kansas City Chiefs) (0.821)
37. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) (0.840) 36. Jim McMahon (Chicago Bears) (0.875) (1.705 without adjustment)
35. Eli Manning (New York Giants) (0.884)
34. Michael Vick (Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.890)
33. Steve Grogan (New England Patriots) (0.989)
Tier 2: Franchise QB (1-2 wins above the average starter a season)
32. Joe Namath (New York Jets) (1.002)
30t. Jay Schroeder (Washington Redskins and Los Angeles Raiders) (1.056)
30t. Joe Theismann (Washington Redskins) (1.056)
29. Steve McNair (Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans) (1.064)
28. Bob Griese (Miami Dolphins) (1.069)
27. John Brodie (San Francisco 49ers) (1.071)
26. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) (1.086)
25. Fran Tarkenton (Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants) (1.157)
24. Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.186)
23. Sonny Jurgensen (Washington Redskins) (1.219)
22. Rich Gannon (Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders) (1.234)
21. Dan Marino (Miami Dolphins) (1.407)
20. Len Dawson (Kansas City Chiefs) (1.451)
19. Randall Cunningham (Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings) (1.457)
18. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) (1.464)
17. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) (1.511)
16. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) (1.523)
15. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.539)
14. Drew Brees (San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints) (1.777)
13. Brett Favre (Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings) (1.795)
12. Jim Kelly (Buffalo Bills) (1.841)
11. Kurt Warner (St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals) (1.873)
10. John Elway (Denver Broncos) (1.957)
Tier 1: Legend (2 or more wins above the average starter a season)
9. Ken Stabler (Oakland Raiders, Houston Oilers and New Orleans Saints) (2.174)
8. Steve Young (Tampa Bay Bucs and San Francisco 49ers) (2.198)
7. Roger Staubach (Dallas Cowboys) (2.224)
6. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) (2.248)
5. Danny White (Dallas Cowboys) (2.284)
4. Joe Montana (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (2.441)
3. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos) (3.065)
2. Daryle Lamonica (Oakland Raiders) (3.365)
1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) (3.532)