RazorStar 4,025 Posted December 18, 2018 Competing teams: 1. Kansas City 11-3 2. Houston 10-4 3. New England 9-5 4. Pittsburgh 8-5-1 5. Los Angeles Chargers 11-3 6. Baltimore 8-6 --- 7. Indianapolis 8-6 8. Tennessee 8-6 9. Miami 7-7 10. Cleveland 6-7-1 10. Cleveland Browns Potential Seeds: 6 Cleveland is on the fringest of fringe scenarios to make it in, and really shouldn’t be considered in the hunt. However, there is a single set of events that allows them in, and it takes a tie to get that far. The easy part is winning the games on their schedule… from there, it’s up to the hands of fate. Week 16 Washington beats Tennessee New York Giants beats Indianapolis Los Angeles Chargers beats Baltimore Cleveland beats Cincinnati Week 17 Indianapolis and Tennessee tie Cleveland beats Baltimore Miami either loses in week 16 to the Jaguars, or week 17 to the Bills. So you can’t exactly consider their odds realistic, but stranger things have happened in the NFL. Browns should take pride in this season regardless, and finishing 8-7-1 would be a great boon for the future next year. 9. Miami Dolphins Potential Seeds 3, 4, 6 Despite being 7-7 right now, due to the way the seeds are shaping up, they could potentially go as high as the 3 seed, but that would require some unlikely results. The Dolphins can win the AFC East if they win out against the Jaguars and Bills (which is possible), and have the Patriots lose out against the Bills and Jets (which is impossible). But assuming the impossible does happen, Miami would have a tiebreaker on Baltimore if they finished with the same record and won their divisions, and if Pittsburgh won the division at 8-7-1, they’d be a half game behind the Fish. A loss will eliminate them entirely, but they can still make a wild-card if they win out and the Patriots win a game. If they tie with the Titans at 9-7, with the Titans beating the Colts in Week 17, they have H2H on them. If they tie with the Colts at 9-7 with the Colts beating the Titans in week 17, they lose the spot since the Colts have H2H on them. With all that said, if the Colts and Titans both win in week 16, it doesn’t matter what the Dolphins do, they can’t secure the wild card. 8. Tennessee Titans Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 The Titans are a very interesting team. While they do not control their own destiny, if things fall a certain way, they could still be looking at a first round bye this year. Granted that would take a lot of finagling, but assuming they win out, all they need is a Baltimore loss at some point, thanks a crucial week 17 matchup between them and the Colts. Winning out, having the AFC North champion finish with less that 10 wins, having the Texans lose out and the Patriots losing a game would put them in the second seed thanks to H2H with the Patriots. A loss in week 17 would put them out of the race entirely, however with a lot of help they could still sneak into the 6th seed with a Win against Indy and a lot of help in the other games. It’ll be interesting to see what happens down the stretch, they could be a real spanner in the works. 7. Indianapolis Colts Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 The Colts face a similar challenge that the Titans do. They lose the tiebreaker to the Ravens, so they don’t control their destiny unless the Birds drop a game, but they could still sneak into the division title by winning out and having the Texans losing out. Like the Titans, the week 17 game is a must win game for them, they cannot make the playoffs if they lose that one, but they could still sneak into the 6 seed if they lost week 16 to the Giants. Unlike the Titans however, they would need the Patriots to lose both of their games if they wanted to sneak into the 2nd seed, in addition to having the Texans lose out and neither the Steelers or Ravens hitting 10 wins. That’s is a lot to ask for, but the wild-card odds are reasonable at the least. 6. Baltimore Ravens Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 Win out, and you’re in. For the Ravens, it’s almost just that simple. They need to beat some tough teams, but beating the Chargers and Browns will guarantee the 6th seed at the very worst. If Pittsburgh drops a game, they win the North and get at least the 4th. If Houston manages not to win the AFC South, they have the tiebreaker on the Colts and Titans, and could jump up to 3rd, and if the Patriots lost a game down the stretch as well, they could end up the second seed. Once again, it is a lot to expect, but it isn’t outside the realm of possibility. The Ravens can still make the 6th even if they lose a game, all they need is the Dolphins to avoid winning both of their games, or the Titans and Colts winning both of their games. They could even win their division if they lost a single game, provided the Steelers lost out. Well the situation is actually pretty complex if the Patriots, Dolphins, Ravens, Colts and Titans all finish 9-7, because in that case Miami has the division tiebreaker on New England, and takes the 4, while Baltimore takes the tiebreakers over the rest of the pack and steals the 6 seed. If Baltimore were to lose both games, they would not make the playoffs because either the Colts or Titans will get ahead of them by virtue of their week 17 game, even in event of a tie, both of those teams would finish with a better record than 8-8. I mentioned that there was a scenario where the Ravens won out and wouldn’t make the playoffs, so I figure I might as well elaborate on what exactly needs to happen to cause that. If either the Colts or Titans win out, the Steelers win out, and the Texans lose out then you get a situation where Houston and Baltimore are tied for the 6th seed at 10-6, and Houston has the tiebreaker in common games over them. But that’s the most unlikely scenario out there. 5. X- Los Angeles Chargers Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 5 The Chargers did a great job winning against the Chiefs, but still cannot claim the division without some help from the Chiefs. If the Chiefs win out, the Chargers are locked in at the 5 seed, they can’t go below that even if they lost out. However if the Chiefs lose a game, then the Chargers have some flexibility to move around, and having a better record than them will guarantee a first round bye. They could tie the Texans at 12-4, and depending on which game they lose, they would either become the second seed due to common games (Losing to Denver), or the tiebreaker would come down to Strength of Victory (Losing to Baltimore) which would be way too complicated for me to deal with. Winning out and having the Chiefs lose at least once would guarantee the Chargers the first seed. Their scenarios are pretty simple, all things considered. 4. Pittsburgh Steelers Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 The Steelers are still on the knife’s edge, even after beating the Patriots. Only being a half game up on the Ravens means they could lose the division at any moment, and coming up against the Saints next week shouldn’t engender confidence. Still, winning out, having the Pats lose a game, and having the Texans lose out would get them up to the 2 seed. Losing a game isn’t a death sentence, but they would need help to guarantee a playoff spot if that were to happen, since the Ravens could take their division spot by winning out and the Colts or Titans would probably end up with a 10-6 record to remove them from the postseason chase. Losing both games would eliminate the Steelers unless the Ravens managed to lose out as well, so their fates are inexorably linked. 3. New England Patriots Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 The Patriots aren’t quite in the position we’d thought they’d be, but their situation is still very favourable. A Dolphins loss at any point guarantees the East division, and if they manage to beat the Jets or Bills, they’ll have the division. With a tiebreaker on the Texans, and a half game on the Steelers they have good tiebreakers on the teams currently in the lead, but they have a head to head loss to the Titans, and poor tiebreakers against the Ravens, so if they didn’t win out you could still see a lot of nonsense happening. But this is the Pats against the AFC East, these wins are virtually guaranteed, and at 11-5, a single Texans loss would jump them up to the second seed, and if both the Chargers and Chiefs decided losing out was in their fashion, the Patriots could be the top dog by seasons end. Therefore, that’s the most likely scenario because we’re cursed to eternal Patriots hell. 2. X- Houston Texans Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 The Texans have a lot of flexibility, but their playoff situation is very simple. Win and they are in. Win twice and they guarantee a home game at 12-4 and at least the second seed. Houston’s tiebreakers with the Chargers and Chiefs are still dependent on which games they’d lose if they both went 12-4, so it’s hard to say if they’d guarantee the 1 seed for themselves with a single Chiefs and Chargers loss. Of course, losing out means that they are at the mercy of the Colts and Titans, who would both overtake them with a tied 10-6 record. However, they’d still get a wild-card spot from all the scenarios I’ve run. No one has a confirmation that the Texans have clinched a spot, but I’m not seeing a scenario where they end up at worst the 6th seed, thanks to a tiebreaker on the Ravens, by virtue of the fact that the Colts and Titans cannot both be 10-6 to kick them out, and there can be no other 10-6 or better wild-card team. Perhaps my playoff machine is busted, but it looks as though the Texans are at least locked in for the 6th seed at worst. 1. X- Kansas City Chiefs Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 3, 5 Chiefs control their own destiny at this point, win out and get home field advantage, no questions asked. Put a loss on the docket, then things get stupid. With a H2H loss to the Patriots, losing out with the Chargers losing out could drop them down to third seed, since they’d still win the division over the Chargers in that circumstance. A loss to the Raiders on week 17 would probably lose them the division since the Chargers would steal the division title from them with any win. A win and a Chargers and Texans loss would wrap up home field advantage by week 16, but they have a tough bout against the Seahawks this week. The difference between a home game and a bye and a road bout against another playoff contender is a staggering difference, so the Chiefs should be looking to play out the season strong if they can. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RazorStar 4,025 Posted December 18, 2018 9. Carolina Panthers Potential Seeds: 6 The Panthers really needed that win against New Orleans on monday. They still have a very slim shot, but they need a lot of help. 1. Win out, beating Atlanta and New Orleans at New Orleans. 2. Have the Vikings lose out. A single win or tie by the Vikings will eliminate them. 3. Have the Eagles and Redskins lose in week 16, then have the Eagles beat the Skins in week 17. If all that happens, boom, the Panthers somehow get to be the 6 seed after losing 5 straight games in the second half of the season. Needless to say, that is extremely unlikely. 8. Washington Redskins Potential Seeds: 4, 5, 6 It’s sort of amazing that we’re still talking about the Skins as a potential playoff candidate even with all of their injuries, but the NFC keeps leaving the door open. They have tiebreakers on the Panthers, Seahawks, and Vikings so if it does come down to it they are in a favourable position. They can even take the NFC East by winning out and having Dallas lose out. Losing to the Eagles in week 17 will eliminate them from postseason contention regardless of what they do in week 16. Winning out will not guarantee them a playoff spot, they either need the VIkings to lose a game, Dallas to lose out, or Seattle to lose to the Cardinals (losing to the Chiefs wouldn’t help tiebreakers) 7. Philadelphia Eagles Potential Seeds: 4, 5, 6 Philly is a very similar position to Washington. Losing to the Skins in week 17 will eliminate them from the postseason no matter what they do, so that game is a must win for both squads. However winning out does give them a fair shot. They don’t control their destiny and need some help, but it’s the same situation as the Redskins. Dallas losing out would give them the division, the Vikings losing one would get them in as the 6, or they would need the Seahawks to lose out to sneak in. Losing in week 16 wouldn’t be a death sentence, but they would need the Vikings to lose out and the Panthers to lose a game to stay alive since they lost H2H to both the Vikings and Panthers, and the Seahawks have the conference game tiebreaker on them. 6. Minnesota Vikings Potential Seed: 5, 6 The Vikings control their own destiny, and simply winning out would be enough to get in at 9-6-1. A single loss isn’t disastrous, as they still have good tiebreakers, but two losses would require a miracle to sneak in (Washington and Philly would have to tie, and Carolina would need to lose once more). They’re very likely to remain in the postseason, even though they do have two divisional games on the horizon. 5. Seattle Seahawks Potential Seed: 5, 6 The Seahawks had a great opportunity to win and guarantee a playoff spot, but now they need some help. Well help to guarantee their spot, they are still in amazing position. A win will keep them in the playoffs. Two losses… then they need some help. The Redskins have the tiebreaker if they both go 8-8. The Vikings would need to lose out to go below .500 if that happened. If the Eagles win week 17 and go 8-8, they’ll still sneak in thanks to tiebreakers. If Dallas loses out, and either the Eagles or Redskins win the division at 9-7, Seattle will get in thanks to good tiebreakers on Dallas, who will knock off any East teams at 8-8 with divisional tiebreakers. The situation gets really messy if ties are involved, so Seattle fans are just praying they get the win against KC or Arizona and not have to worry about all this nonsense. 4. Dallas Cowboys Potential Seeds: 3, 4, 5, 6 If the Cowboys win they guarantee at least the 4 seed. If they win out and the Bears lose out, they’ll grab the three seed based on Conference game tiebreakers. If they lose out, then things get interesting. They’ll still win the division if both the Eagles and Redskins lose week 16, because they’d have the tiebreaker on either of them, but if either of them wins out, the Cowboys are looking at a wildcard berth. The Vikings can better them with a win, and the Seahawks are guaranteed a higher spot than them thanks to the H2H victory earlier in the season. They’d still be alive if the Vikings got a tie and a loss, but a single win from the Vikings would dash their hopes. 3. Y-Chicago Bears Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 3, 4 The bears locked up a divisional berth with a win last week, and thanks to a Rams loss, they are in striking distance of the 2nd seed, and a miracle away from the first seed. A win in any capacity guarantees the third seed at a minimum. A Dallas loss will do the same. If they win one more game than the Rams do, they’ll sneak into the second seed. And in the best case scenario where they win out, the Saints lose out, and the Rams lose at least one game, they’ll take home field advantage thanks to their superior conference record. 2. Y-Los Angeles Rams Potential Seed 1, 2, 3 If the Rams want the number 1 seed, they have to win out and have the Saints lose out. No other option will get them there. If they lose one more game than the Bears they’ll drop to the 3rd seed. And if they stay the course, win out and the Saints win at least one game, they’ll settle in at the second seed. The Rams are playing for a bye but they’ve been flat these past few weeks. 1. Y- New Orleans Saints Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 3 The Saints have their division locked up already, but they need to win to guarantee the first seed. If they lose out, depending on the Bears and Rams they could fall all the way to the third seed, and having to play a divisional round game in Soldier Field sounds like a recipe for disaster. All they need a single win though, so the odds are in their favour. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SteVo+ 3,702 Posted December 18, 2018 Thanks for posting all this, Razor. I've been trying to figure out what week 17 game is most likely to be flexed to Sunday night. I guess Colts/Titans if the winner gets the #6 seed? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RazorStar 4,025 Posted December 18, 2018 The Colts/Titans and Eagles/Redskins would be the most likely games to be in that flex spot. The Browns / Ravens might be a longshot since the Ravens affect the chances of so many other teams. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
.AirMcNair. 1,232 Posted December 19, 2018 I have to imagine either Baltimore will lose at LAC or Pittsburgh will lose at NO, if not both this week(just need one of them to lose to control our destiny for the 6 seed), and surely we can take care of business vs a Josh Johnson led Redskins team(if not obviously don't belong anywhere near the postseason). Having to beat Andrew Luck to get in to the playoffs in week 17, if that does end up being the case, is probably the tallest task you can ask of this Titans team. Would rather play pretty much any other team than the Colts to have to get in. Luck just owns the Titans soul. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhilElliot 65 Posted December 19, 2018 Quote The Titans are a very interesting team. While they do not control their own destiny, if things fall a certain way, they could still be looking at a first round bye this year. Granted that would take a lot of finagling, but assuming they win out, all they need is a Baltimore loss at some point, thanks a crucial week 17 matchup between them and the Colts. Winning out, having the AFC North champion finish with less that 10 wins, having the Texans lose out and the Patriots losing a game would put them in the second seed thanks to H2H with the Patriots. the Titans are never interesting. theyll lose saturday anyway Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thanatos 2,847 Posted December 23, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 7:04 AM, PhilElliot said: the Titans are never interesting. theyll lose saturday anyway Another wrong prediction from the king of them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
.AirMcNair. 1,232 Posted December 23, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 6:04 AM, PhilElliot said: the Titans are never interesting. theyll lose saturday anyway 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhilElliot 65 Posted December 23, 2018 Ok great, they won. They're still inconsequential in the ultimate goal. A side note, a momentary amusement Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RazorStar 4,025 Posted December 23, 2018 After the saturday and the sunday morning games: The Browns are eliminated because they didn't get the help they needed. The Dolphins are eliminated by virtue of their loss to the Jaguars The Panthers are eliminated by virtue of their loss to the Falcons. The Redskins are eliminated by losing and the Eagles and Vikings winning. --- The Cowboys clinched the NFC East with a victory The Patriots clinched the AFC East with a win (dolphins loss too), and are currently frontrunners for the second seed If the Steelers lose, the Titans/Colts game week 17 becomes a win and in for both squads. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RazorStar 4,025 Posted December 24, 2018 Well all the teams current in the hunt or in the postseason have played their games this week, which means I'll crank out something for Week 17 sometime soon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites