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Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

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Competing Teams:

 

1. X-Kansas City 11-4

2. Y-New England 10-5

3. X-Houston 10-5

4. Baltimore 9-6

5. X-Los Angeles Chargers 11-4

6. Indianapolis Colts 9-6

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7. Tennessee Titans 9-6

8. Pittsburgh Steelers 8-6-1

 

8. Pittsburgh Steelers 8-6-1

Potential Seeds 4, 6

The Steelers started the season rough, and they finished the season rough, penalties, turnovers and various other mental mistakes have put them in the outside looking in after leading the North for most of the second half of the season. They have two routes to the postseason, and they both require some help. The first is the path to the 4 seed, which is the easier method. As long as the Steelers beat the Bengals, and the Browns beat the Ravens, the Steelers will take the North, and the Ravens will miss the postseason. The second method is a little nastier, but the Steelers can still make the playoffs if they win and Baltimore wins. Indianapolis and Tennessee play on Sunday Night, and the winner will be the 6 seed at a bare minimum. However, if neither the Titans nor the Colts win on Sunday Night, the Steelers make it over the Colts and Titans by virtue of their tiebreaker (Common Games, which is broken on ESPN’s Playoff Machine), and sneak in as the unlikely 6 seed.

 

7. Tennessee Titans 9-6

6. Indianapolis Colts 9-6

Potential Seeds: 2 (Titans only), 3, 4, 6

I put them together because only the winner of their game can make the postseason, the loser is out entirely. If the Texans win against the Jaguars, the winner of their week 17 bout will be the 6 seed. If the Texans lose, then things get interesting. The winner of the game will become the AFC South champion (Divisional Record tiebreaker) and depending on results from the Ravens and Patriots, could jump higher in the seeding. If the Patriots and Ravens lose, and the Titans win, the Titans jump all the way up to the second seed. If the Pats and Ravens lose and the Colts win, the Colts only jump up to 3rd, since they lost H2H against the Pats. If the Ravens win, the best the Colts can do is 4th seed, and the Titans could be 3rd or 4th depending on the Patriots winning or losing.

 

5. X-Los Angeles Chargers 11-4

Potential Seeds 1, 5

The Chargers are rather simple by comparison. A Win and a Chiefs Loss will give them home field advantage (what home field?) throughout the playoffs. Anything else, and they’re the 5 seed, set for a road game against… someone.

 

4. Baltimore Ravens 9-6

Potential Seeds 2, 3, 4, 6

The Ravens can potentially be the 6 seed, but that requires them to tie the Browns this week and have the Colts and Titans tie as well, which is so absurd it may as well be impossible instead of just incredibly improbable. A loss won’t eliminate them, but a loss and a Steelers win will. If both AFC North frontrunners lose, the Ravens would be locked into the 4. The ravens have superior tiebreakers on the Titans, Patriots, and Colts, so in a scenario with those division winners at 10-6, the Ravens would be the lead dog, and could grab the second seed with a mere Patriots and Texans loss and a victory. They don’t have a good tiebreaker with the Texans, but it won’t be relevant at this stage.

 

3. X-Houston Texans 10-5

Potential Seeds 1, 2, 3, 4, 6

The Texans blew a shot at keeping control of a playoff bye with their loss to the Eagles yesterday. However, they could still gain a bye and even home field advantage thanks to the Chiefs slipping up against the Seahawks. The Texans have a playoff spot locked up, but a loss to Jacksonville means they will be the 6 seed unless the Colts and Titans both tie. They’ve got a lot more play if they do win however. They lost the H2H to the Patriots, so they need them to lose to the Jets to get a bye. If the Chiefs, Chargers, and Texans all go 11-5 with the Pats going 10-6, the Texans would have the tiebreaker on the Chiefs and claim the first seed. If the Pats are thrown into that mix, the Patriots have the first seed, and the Texans the two, while the Chiefs drop to third.

 

2. Y-New England Patriots 10-5

Potential Seeds 1, 2, 3, 4

They clinched their division this week so they are guaranteed a home game at the worst. A win would secure at least a first round bye, and if both the Chiefs and Chargers lost on top of that, they would secure home field advantage. If they lose to the Jets, then they can tumble. With a H2H loss to the Titans, they’d prefer the Colts winning if the Texans lost so they could keep a bye, and they’d also prefer to have the Ravens lose as well so they don’t tumble all the way to 4th potentially. A lot of teams could be looking for weird results in the Colts / Titans game if they don’t take care of their own business.

 

1. X-Kansas City Chiefs 11-4

Potential Seeds 1, 2, 3, 5

For the Chiefs it’s simple. Win and you get HFA. Lose… then things get really bad, really fast. The Chiefs have the division tiebreaker on the Chargers, but a loss and a San Diego win drops them to the 5th seed, and a road date against a nasty opponent. Supposing both they and San Diego lose, then they can easily tumble down the division winners because New England has a H2H victory on them, and the Texans would (likely) have Strength of Victory on them.

 

I'll be doing the NFC later, but it's a lot simpler.

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Competing Teams:

1. Z-New Orleans Saints 13-2

2. Y-Los Angeles Rams 12-3

3. Y-Chicago Bears 11-4

4. Y-Dallas Cowboys 9-6

5. X-Seattle Seahawks 9-6

6. Minnesota Vikings 8-6-1

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7. Philadelphia Eagles 8-7

 

7. Philadelphia Eagles 8-7

Potential Seeds: 6

The Eagles only have one road to the postseason, now that Week 16 shook up like it did. They need to beat the Redskins and they need to have the Bears beat the Vikings. They can’t even hope for the Vikings and Bears to tie either, because the Vikings beat them H2H. With Seattle beating the Chiefs, there is no hope of pushing them out for a playoff spot, because the Seahawks have a superior conference record tiebreaker.

 

6. Minnesota Vikings 8-6-1

Potential Seeds: 5, 6

A Philadelphia loss or tie will put them into the postseason. A win or a tie will put them into the postseason. A win and a Seattle loss will allow them to take the 5 seed instead of the 6. It’s time to see what Kirk Cousins is truly worth, since the Bears are one of the few NFC teams who aren’t playing for nothing but pride this week.

 

5. X-Seattle Seahawks 9-6

Potential Seeds: 5, 6

With their win against the Chiefs they are guaranteed a playoff berth. Whether they play the Cowboys or the 3 seed depends on them. A win or tie, or a Vikings tie or loss gives them the 5th seed outright. A loss and a Vikings win will drop them down to the 6th seed, to play the Rams or the Bears.

 

4. Y-Dallas Cowboys 9-6

Potential Seeds: 4

The Cowboys are locked in after beating the Bucs last week. No matter what they do, they’re awaiting the Seahawks or Vikings in the postseason.

 

3. Y-Chicago Bears 11-4

Potential Seeds: 2, 3

The Bears can get a first round bye, but they need to beat the Vikings, and have the Rams lose to the 49ers to make that a reality. Otherwise they will be the 3 seed,and the most likely scenario would be playing the Vikings two weeks in a row.

 

2. Y-Los Angeles Rams 12-3

Potential Seeds: 2, 3

Losing to the two other powerhouses in the conference may have seriously hurt the Rams chances to buy a title. A win would guarantee them the 2 seed at least, but the Bears could take it if they lose. They’ll likely have to face both the Bears and Saints if they want to get out of the NFC and to the Super Bowl this year.

 

1. Z-New Orleans Saints 13-2

Potential Seeds: 1

Drew Brees and the rest can rest and relax for the postseason. They’ve got a nice little 19 day vacation before they play one of the Cowboys, Eagles, Seahawks, or Vikings in the third week of January.

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7 hours ago, seanbrock said:

Bears are playing for a bye since the Rams and them both play at 4:00. 

doesnt matter. Vikings are in.. or rather, they will be no matter how it happens.

already been decided

 

 

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4 hours ago, seanbrock said:

I suddenly feel much better about the Eagles chances of making it lol

You're kidding but I won't be wrong

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Anyway lol I also don't think I'd want to back into a playoff game against a divisional opponent. 

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