SteVo's 2011 Mock Draft 3.0

[SteVo+ 3,702]

We're officially on lockout mode, and while CBA negotiations will now be left to endless hours of litigation, it's time for the fans to fully enter draft mode. With Pro Days in full sweep across the nation, this is my most thought out mock draft to date. For each pick I tried to give serious thought to what each team would be thinking given the players on the board at that time. Explanations for each pick are detailed, but as always I love to hear comments and criticism, so bring 'em on!

 

 

Pick Explanations

1. Blaine Gabbert's stock is rising fast, especially after Missouri's Pro Day. But I think once scouts go back to the film, they'll see a guy who struggles outside the hashmarks and who struggles downfield. I think Carolina will ultimately take a quarterback with this pick, and I think Newton's stock will be higher at that point.

2. Champ Bailey's re-signing and Perrish Cox's avoidance of jail time has alleviated the need for a cornerback. Denver may still take Patrick Peterson anyway, but for now my money's on Dareus, who fills Denver's biggest need and has gotten the stamp of approval from Mike Mayock and Warren Sapp.

3. Nobody seems to be taking this seriously, but I think Green is on his way to Buffalo. The Bills' defense actually wasn't that putrid last year, and they need playmakers on offense. We found out last year how much the Bills love playmakers when they drafted C.J. Spiller ninth overall. If passing on Patrick Peterson seems really stupid, well--it's the Bills.

4. With the playmaking Green off the board, this is a no-brainer for Cincinnati unless they fall in love with Blaine Gabbert. If they snag Peterson, Cincy can rest a little easier in letting Jonathan Joseph walk.

5. Arizona is slowly building up their defense. They got a nose tackle and impact linebacker last year in Dan Williams and Daryl Washington, respectively; now they need to add a pass rusher. Again, this pick could be Gabbert if the Cardinals brass likes him, but I think Arizona will be trading for a veteran signal caller, and Miller makes too much sense.

6. This pick is up in the air pending the status of Bowers' injured knee, but early indications are that there's no concern. A few weeks ago, Bowers' stock was slipping along with Nick Fairley's. I don't think that's fair. Bowers led the nation in sacks and tackles for loss. You can't ignore that type of production. Cleveland, meanwhile, needs defensive ends for their new 4-3 defense. If the knee raises red flags then Robert Quinn could just as easily be the pick here.

7. San Francisco showed they take the highest player on their board when they took two offensive linemen in the first round. So this pick has the potential to be a surprise. I can not, however, see the 49ers not taking Amukamara and continuing to neglect their secondary, a glaring weakness that is holding their defense back.

8. You know it's a deep draft when you're getting guys like Amukamara and Fairley drafted outside the top five. Again, this could be a landing spot for Blaine Gabbert, but I can't see Tennessee passing on Fairley, who would fill a hole on the defensive line that has existed since Albert Haynesworth left town.

9. I don't project trades (in this mock, anyway), but if I expect a team to trade down to get better value for a certain player, I just give them said player in that slot. In this case, I fully expect Jerry Jones to trade down if Amukamara is off the board. Jordan and J.J. Watt make a lot of sense for Dallas, both projecting as five-technique defensive ends. But Watt's stock has been up and down whereas Jordan's has been consistent.

10. So this is where the Gabbert train stops. It's as good a guess as any, I feel. Washington is literally in need of an upgrade at every position, and when you're that far down in rebuilding mode, a quarterback is the best place to start. If the Redskins pass on Gabbert and the board looks like this, I'd say Robert Quinn and Julio Jones are both realistic options.

11. What a steal this would be for the Texans, and for Wade Phillips, who has inherited Houston's defense and is converting it to a 3-4. The secondary needs major help, but Jimmy Smith would be a reach. Quinn would convert to rush linebacker and fill Houston's next biggest need.

12. Let me state for the record that Jake Locker is gaining steam to be this pick. Now that that's out of the way, I see Watt as something of a best-player-available pick for Minnesota, but he fills a need no matter which way you slice it, which is what I like about this pick. Watt can play end or tackle in a 4-3, so he can either take over for Ray Edwards if Robinson doesn't pan out, or he can replace Pat Williams on the inside.

13. Much has been said about Detroit's offensive line woes, so I'll just be simple: if Smith, the far-and-away best tackle in this class, falls to Detroit at thirteen, they'd be stupid to pass on him. Stranger things have happened, of course. And we know that Detroit has a BPA philosophy. But they have to address the offensive line, and they know it.

14. St. Louis has a lot of needs, many on defense, but I can't see them passing up an opportunity to snag Jones if he falls this far. In terms of athleticism, he can do everything A.J. Green can. He would plug in immediately as a number one receiver and as Sam Bradford's primary target, his go-to-guy.

15. I think Miami's running back need is exaggerated. They may still re-sign Ronnie Brown, they could get a bargain buy like Darren Sproles on the market, or they could pay the big bucks for DeAngelo Williams. Even still, running back is a position where you can find quality starters well after the first round. An organization once governed by Bill Parcells knows that. Instead of Mark Ingram, I expect the Dolphins to trade down and snag Pouncey, who immediately boosts the interior offensive line.

16. The Jaguars may claim to draft the best player available but we all know the truth: Gene Smith looks for a solid prospect with lots of experience and no character concerns whatsoever who fill a need. By that token, only Ponder and Ryan Kerrigan qualify strongly for this pick. Kerrigan is definitely the better prospect, but I don't think the Jags will chance trying to get Ponder in the second round. I see them really falling in love with him as their future quarterback.

17. So begins the run of massive amounts of draft picks for the Patriots. Every year it seems like they wheel and deal, trade down a few times, then make a slight reach for a guy. Then a few years later said guy is a stud and it becomes apparent there was no reach at all. I see that happening with Liuget, a quietly rising prospect who addresses New England's need on the defensive line. Look for the Pats to pick up a pass rusher with their next pick.

18. A.J. Smith puzzles me in the first round. Drafting Larry English sixteenth overall? Trading all the way up from twenty-eight to twelve to take Ryan Mathews? I just don't know. So I figure this guess is as good as any. Clayborn addresses a very big need at five-technique defensive end. The Chargers have needed a right tackle for years and done nothing about it, so there's no reason to think they'll take one with this pick.

19. Akeem Ayers may seem like a good pick with the Giants needing impact linebackers, but the G-Men don't like drafting linebackers in the first round; they'll grab someone to develop in the second or third round. In the first round this year, I expect New York to address the offensive line, once a great strength of the team.

20. Unlike most, I do not think this pick is a lock to be a defensive end. Pass rushers who get drafted by teams with 4-3 defenses generally take a few years to get going. Tampa Bay needs pass rush now; they'll be addressing that through free agency. And by taking two defensive tackles last year, they proved they're a BPA team. Nevertheless, I see Kerrigan as the pick because he probably would be the best player at this point.

21. Scott Pioli has established that he's not afraid to reach for players who fit his defense. It was Tyson Jackson in 2009, and I think it'll be Taylor in 2011. Realistically Pioli and the Chiefs trade down a few spots, and judging by some of the juicy names still on the board, they'd probably find plenty of takers.

22. After the loss to the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV, Bill Polian cast blame onto the offensive line for not protecting Peyton Manning. In the 2010 draft, the Colts took Jerry Hughes with Roger Saffold on the board. Months later, Polian admitted his regret towards passing on Saffold. That makes an offensive tackle pretty obvious here, right? Not necessarily. Polian has a history of weird draft picks in the first round (Anthony Gonzalez, Donald Brown). Still, Solder is athletic enough to play left tackle and would be too tough to pass up.

23. This pick makes sense for the Eagles in many ways. Carimi has drawn comparisons to Jon Runyan and fits perfectly into Andy Reid's style of offense. The Eagles like to convert tackles to guards so Carimi can start at right guard if he doesn't replace Winston Justice right away. Cornerback is still Philadelphia's biggest need, but they will most likely address that through free agency.

24. Everything I know about New Orleans' drafting philosophy tells me they take the highest player on their board. Ingram would almost definitely be that at this point. Despite re-signing Pierre Thomas to a four-year deal, New Orleans could use more stability in the backfield. Ingram would provide that and then some. Also, the need for help on the defensive line was alleviated when the Saints signed Shaun Rodgers to a one-year deal.

25. I mentioned earlier that there was increasing buzz for Locker to get drafted by Minnesota; there has been similar buzz for Seattle. All in all, it's getting tough to see Locker escape the first round. The Seahawks have been quiet in regards to Charlie Whitehurst, which tells me they don't want to tip their hand in revealing a quarterback need.

26. Smith is an intriguing prospect. Off-the-field issues have apparently driven his stock way down, but there are times on tape when he's as dominant as any corner in this class. I think when the dust settles his stock will dip a little bit, but he'd be a worthy investment for Baltimore, a team who desperately needs help at corner.

27. Everybody expects Atlanta to add a wide receiver with this pick, but none are worthy of going in the first round (besides Green and Jones, who will be long gone). With so many needs on the other side of the ball, I see Atlanta drafting the best defensive player available, which is Smith, a physical beast with enormous potential. If the Falcons are hellbent on adding a playmaker for Matt Ryan, look for them to snag Kyle Rudolph.

28. After addressing the defensive line, the Pats get some pass rush with Ayers, a prospect once thought of as an instant impact guy.

29. Chicago's offensive line is awful. They need an upgrade badly. They also strike me as a team who will take an offensive tackle in the first round no matter what. So if Sherrod isn't available, I wouldn't be surprised to see them reach for Ben Ijalana.

30. The Jets really need to add a quality pass rusher, but Heyward would likely be higher than Brooks Reed on their board at this point. He fills a need at five-technique, putting the abysmal Vernon Gholston era in the distant past.

31. This works out really well for Pittsburgh. They draft BPA, and I think Harris would be that in this case. Let's not forget that he fills Pittsburgh's biggest need at cornerback.

32. Brooks Reed is getting first round buzz and could very well be the pick here, but GM Ted Thompson always sticks to his board. Knowing that depth helped Green Bay win the Super Bowl, I have a hard time thinking he would deviate from his philosophy in this case.

[Purple Pride 4]

I am still saying we draft a bigger need.

[SteVo+ 3,702]

I am still saying we draft a bigger need.

 

Like what...QB? OT?

[Purple Pride 4]

Tyron Smith or Mallet/Locker/Ponder.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Lol.. actually.. I see Gabbert or Newton to Min... Two QBs you didn't mention.

[Phenomenal TJ 28]

Brandon Harris.

[Purple Pride 4]

Lol.. actually.. I see Gabbert or Newton to Min... Two QBs you didn't mention.

Neither will last to our pick. I would take them if they did.