Bay 2,003 Posted November 15, 2012 (edited) Dolphins at Bills -- Week 11 Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, N.Y. (Low 40s, 6 mph wind) When: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NFL Network) Spread: Buffalo by 1. 2012 records -- Dolphins (4-5, AFC East: 1-1); Bills (3-6, AFC East: 0-3) Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec. 18, 2011: Dolphins 30, Buffalo 23; Nov. 20, 2011: Dolphins 35, Buffalo 8. Series record: Dolphins lead 56-39-1. What matters: Any chance the Dolphins have at reaching the postseason begins in Buffalo on Thursday night. Miami can't afford a third consecutive loss after getting blown out against lowly Tennessee last week. The Bills are searching for their first division win and haven't beaten the Dolphins since 2010. Who matters: Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill couldn't have been much worse against the Titans last week. Tannehill completed 23 of 39 passes for 217 yards with three interceptions. Overall, the signal caller has completed 58.9 percent of his passes for 1,979 yards with five touchdowns against nine interceptions this season. Meantime, DE Cameron Wake needs to get back on track after seeing his streak of five straight games with a sack snapped against Tennessee. The former Penn State standout has 8.5 sacks to go with 29 tackles this season. Key matchups: CB Sean Smith is struggling. The veteran played well against Bengals WR A.J. Green and Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald, but has been a disaster the last two weeks and was torched by a mediocre Tennessee receiving corps. Smith, who has 40 tackles and two interceptions this season, must contain Buffalo star WR Stevie Johnson. The elite pass-catcher has 41 grabs for 502 yards with four touchdowns this year. Injuries of note: WR Davone Bess (non-football related) missed practice Tuesday while WR Jabar Gaffney (knee) and TE Jeron Mastrud (hamstring) were limited. Inside stuff: RB Reggie Bush didn't have a carry after fumbling in the first quarter against the Titans last week. He played in the fourth quarter, but didn't touch the ball. Bush is a pending free agent and if he has fallen out of favor, rising backup RB Daniel Thomas could see his workload continue to increase against the Bills. Stat you should know: 4. Turnovers for the Dolphins last week. The team entered the game with a minus-2 turnover margin for the season, but came totally unglued and gave up field position and easy points. Miami isn't talented enough to overcome that many giveaways. Looking ahead: This is a must-win for Miami. The schedule has games against the Seahawks, Patriots and 49ers on tap. A third consecutive defeat would be devastating as Miami's margin for error is non-existent. Another defeat and the season could spiral out of control and first-year coach Joe Philbin could quickly lose a locker room loaded with veterans in the final year of their contracts. Last meeting: Dolphins RB Reggie Bush rushed for 203 yards, including a 76-yard touchdown, in a 30-23 win Dec. 18, 2011. Streaking: Bills RB C.J. Spiller averages 7.3 yards per carry. He has never had 20 carries in a game. In the past 14 games, Spiller topped out at 16 carries. Spill pill: Fred Jackson (concussion) is the emotional leader of the team and his absence is significant. RB C.J. Spiller faces a stiff test in the Dolphins' fifth-ranked run defense. Miami's front seven showed signs of cracking at Indianapolis and then allowed 126 yards to Chris Johnson of the Titans in last week's blowout. Spiller has a skill set similar to Johnson's and the Bills' confidence is rising; they put up 481 yards and 35 first downs last week. Controlling the ball to keep a ragged defense off the field also requires holding a strong pocket around QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Rookie LT Cordy Glenn is rounding back into form after an ankle injury. He'll get some help containing Dolphins DE Cameron Wake, who leads his team with 8.5 sacks and has 36.5 for his career. The Colts and Titans consistently picked on CB Jimmy Wilson, a starter by default who is best in the nickel. Middle men: The Bills' beleaguered defense (31st in total defense, 32nd in points allowed, 32nd against the run) still poses a threat to QB Ryan Tannehill because of the interior line tandem of Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, active, gap-shooting tackles who can force plays outside. RB Reggie Bush hasn't been heavily involved in the passing game -- 12 catches in the past seven games -- and was benched last week for losing a fumble. The Dolphins cannot sustain success on offense without Bush, the primary big-play threat who had 203 yards last season at Buffalo and averages 5.6 yards per carry against the Bills. Tannehill can pass on first down without fear of turnovers. He's coming off of a three-interception clunker, but the Bills have allowed 29 passes of 20-plus yards, and have given up a cumulative quarterback rating of 96.8 and 18 TD passes. Need to know: Fitzpatrick needs five TD passes to pass Jack Kemp (77) for third place on the team's career list. ... QB Ryan Tannehill has 165 completions and needs 12 more for most by a Dolphins' rookie quarterback (David Woodley). Looking forward to this one. Edited November 15, 2012 by BayAreaBomber 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thanatos 2,847 Posted November 15, 2012 Miami's already slim playoff hopes are done if they lose here. Be interesting to see how Tannehill handles the pressure on the road. On the other side, the Bills run-game is their strength, but the Fins are a hard team to run on. If the Bills win this game, I think it will be because Fitzpatrick does enough through the air. However, I don't see him able to do that enough to keep up with the Fins. 30 20 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Piggly Wiggly 960 Posted November 15, 2012 Bills win this shitfest of a game. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BigBen07 285 Posted November 15, 2012 Bills win this shitfest of a game. Not with that shitty defense. They'll be lucky if Tannehill only throws for ~250 yards. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vin+ 3,121 Posted November 16, 2012 Bills declared RB Fred Jackson, CB Aaron Williams, DEs Mark Anderson and Chris Kelsay, LB Kirk Morrison, OT Thomas Welch, and QB Tarvaris Jackson inactive for Thursday night's game against the Dolphins. Jackson is week-to-week with a concussion, so C.J. Spiller will get the start and see upwards of 20 touches. Be sure to get him in fantasy lineups. Spiller is our own Chris Wesseling's No. 2 running back for Week 11. Williams and Anderson have knee injuries, while Kelsay is out with a neck issue. Kyle Moore will start at defensive end opposite Mario Williams. Dolphins declared WR Jabar Gaffney, TEs Michael Egnew and Jeron Mastrud, DT Tony McDaniel, OL Will Yeatman, and QB Pat Devlin inactive for Thursday night's game against the Bills. Gaffney (knee) and Mastrud (hamstring) were both listed as questionable but are out. Marlon Moore will serve as the No. 3 receiver. McDaniel has a knee issue of his own, but the other three players are healthy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RazorStar 4,025 Posted November 16, 2012 Spiller is gonna get a lot of touches... this could be a big win for the Bills at home. 34 :Dolphins 28 I expect a big struggle tonight. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BigBen07 285 Posted November 16, 2012 Not with that shitty defense. They'll be lucky if Tannehill only throws for ~250 yards. And Tannehill ends up with 141... Eh, whatever. No big deal in that I'm wrong. Good win for Buffalo. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RazorStar 4,025 Posted November 16, 2012 Spiller did get a lot of touches and this game was close, but not as high scoring as I thought. Cameron Wake really deserves some love as a great player and pass rusher in this league. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BigBen07 285 Posted November 16, 2012 Spiller did get a lot of touches and this game was close, but not as high scoring as I thought. Cameron Wake really deserves some love as a great player and pass rusher in this league. I was quite surprised in particular at Buffalo's defense tonight. I figured they'd still struggle, even with going up against an opposing rookie QB. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bay 2,003 Posted November 16, 2012 I guess we shouldn't be too shocked of the score considering how poorly Ry Tan has been playing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
