AP rushing for 2,500 yards???

[BroadcastinMayne 2]

I 've been hearing this alot on the streets, friends, NFL network experts, and online that AP the Beast will rush for up to 2,500 yards this year. In my mind that seems very unlikley i meen he is by far the hardest working, best RB in the game and could became an all time great if he continues. But unless Minesota only throws the ball like 10 times a game, the defense has a killer year, and Peterson's body holds up then its a POSSIBILITY he could get that feat. Minesota doesn't want to do that and they wont, i feel Christian Ponder has grown alittle and this is a hot seat year for the young man so Minesota will pressure to throw the ball and we'll see what he's made of. So no not 2,500 yards for AP the Beast but i can see back to back years possiblly because he's a much more rounded out Running Back than Chris Johnson

[Phins4life 271]

He unquestionably has the talent to do it. But there are so many factors that have to line up for it to happen...health, O-line performance, offensive gameplan, etc. I just don't see it happening, and it's less of a knock on him than it is an observation of just how freakin' hard it would be to accomplish.

[oochymp 2,393]

this is not the first time this topic has come up, so here you go:

 

2500 yards is obscene, I laughed when CJ talked about it and it's just as laughable now. As has already been pointed out, he'd have to average over 156 yards per game to hit 2500 (precise average needs to be minimum 156.25) and that's not gonna happen, it's hard enough to put up those sorts of numbers over a short stretch, much less maintaining it for 16 games. For reference, OJ Simpson holds the record for single season ypg with 143.1 in 1973, when he broke 2000 yards in a 14 game season, and nobody else has averaged more than 133.1 ypg through a season (Jim Brown in '63) and the best anyone has done in a 16 game season is Dickerson's 131.6 in '84 (Peterson averaged 131.1 ypg this year) and only 11 players have averaged over 120 ypg in a season (OJ and Jim Brown both did it twice) only five have averaged more than 130 (the four mentioned and Walter Payton at 132.3 in 1977, a 14 game season) Someone mentioned expansion to 18 games as helpful, while it would certainly be easier, he'd still have to average 138.9 ypg to hit 2500 in an 18 game season, which isn't impossible, as mentioned it has been done, but it would be an amazingly high number and would require top end ypg to go up with two games added, which I don't see happening.

 

(see also: http://www.thegridir...ost__p__2465483 )

Edited July 14, 2013 by oochymp

[theMileHighGuy 656]

He's have to run like 160 yds/game. I just don't think that's possible with 9 in the box every down. He makes the most of that situation, but 400 more yards than he ran for last year? Just no way.

 

I think they're going to be passing a little more this year maybe with Jennings and Cordarrelle. That might open it up for AP more, but it's also going to take carries away.

[Phins4life 271]

He's have to run like 160 yds/game. I just don't think that's possible with 9 in the box every down. He makes the most of that situation, but 400 more yards than he ran for last year? Just no way.

 

I think they're going to be passing a little more this year maybe with Jennings and Cordarrelle. That might open it up for AP more, but it's also going to take carries away.

 

8 in the Box Myth

[Omerta+ 1,206]

I will be the one to say he can. I have said it before and will say it again, I think AP is the best RB that the NFL has ever seen...ever. I dont want to say firmly believe, but I do believe that he will. I think the additional weapons at WR, that defense, I dont know I just have a feeling. I am probably wrong but I have the faith.

[KempBolt 498]

Lolno

[ATL_Predator+ 1,196]

It's not an obscene thought after witnessing what happened this past year. I don't want to be one of the ones sitting here saying AP can't do something anymore.

 

Last year I said he wouldn't come back the same from his injury and...look what happened. If there's anyone in the NFL that has the ability to set legendary records at any given moment, it's him. I don't think he'll go for 2500, but he sure as hell has the capability to do so.

[Phins4life 271]

It's not an obscene thought after witnessing what happened this past year. I don't want to be one of the ones sitting here saying AP can't do something anymore.

 

Last year I said he wouldn't come back the same from his injury and...look what happened. If there's anyone in the NFL that has the ability to set legendary records at any given moment, it's him. I don't think he'll go for 2500, but he sure as hell has the capability to do so.

 

I don't think anyone with half a brain would argue against that point. Just a matter of all the factors and things that would have to go right.

[KempBolt 498]

I think people that doubted him coming back last year are going to be prone to the opposite mistake this year and assume that he's capable of anything.

[Crash 105]

With the two WR they have now AP won't see a loaded box or run blitz as much out of fear of the deep ball. First play of the game I'd run that big fast WR straight downfield and run the hardest play action I could and go deep to him just to scare the defense a little

[Crash 105]

I think people that doubted him coming back last year are going to be prone to the opposite mistake this year and assume that he's capable of anything.

I also think AP is a completely different breed of RB then ever seen before. He's had over 1700 carries in his pro carrier, he had over 1000 carries in college, hes hit the dreaded 350 carry mark twice that is supposed to mark the decline of your skills and ran for 2000 yards after destroying his knee. He was on a pitch count until week 6, if you take his carries and yards the last 10 weeks of the season and stretch them to all 16 he would've gotten it

Edited July 14, 2013 by Crash

[KempBolt 498]

I also think AP is a completely different breed of RB then ever seen before. He's had over 1700 carries in his pro carrier, he had over 1000 carries in college, hes hit the dreaded 350 carry mark twice that is supposed to mark the decline of your skills and ran for 2000 yards after destroying his knee. He was on a pitch count until week 6, if you take his carries and yards the last 10 weeks of the season and stretch them to all 16 he would've gotten it

 

You can always explain how, if you take away certain circumstances, something could have happened. But the reality is that circumstances exist and will always factor. And they'll keep AP from running for 2500 yards.

[Crash 105]

You can always explain how, if you take away certain circumstances, something could have happened. But the reality is that circumstances exist and will always factor. And they'll keep AP from running for 2500 yards.

Same was probably said about Calvin Johnson and his 2000 yards

[.AirMcNair. 1,232]

It's not as outlandish as it seems. He would have needed 68 more carries to reach it at 6.0 ypc. 68 goes in to 16 4.25 times..so only a little more than adding 4 more carries per game would have got him that mark. He only carried it 21 times per game last year. 25 times per wouldn't be outlandish to expect from a workhorse like AP, but again, he'd have to maintain that 6.0.

[SolomonGrundy 10]

I also think AP is a completely different breed of RB then ever seen before. He's had over 1700 carries in his pro carrier, he had over 1000 carries in college, hes hit the dreaded 350 carry mark twice that is supposed to mark the decline of your skills and ran for 2000 yards after destroying his knee. He was on a pitch count until week 6, if you take his carries and yards the last 10 weeks of the season and stretch them to all 16 he would've gotten it

 

Was he on a pitch count or was he just not as good until after week 6? He had at least 18 touches in every week up until week 6, 2 games where he had over 20 carries. I don't think AP was ever on a pitch count, I think they started force feeding him the ball once 2000 yards got in reach for him. They said they wanted to limit his touches, but they never really did.

Edited July 15, 2013 by SolomonGrundy

[Crash 105]

Was he on a pitch count or was he just not as good until after week 6? He had at least 18 touches in every week up until week 6, 2 games where he had over 20 carries. I don't think AP was ever on a pitch count, I think they started force feeding him the ball once 2000 yards got in reach for him. They said they wanted to limit his touches, but they never really did.

I was just going off of what the Vikings had said early in the season that they were going to ease him back in with a pitch count and if you do look at his carries he was getting 16, 18 early and at the end of the season he's logging 31, 28 and 27 carries. I also don't think they were going for 2000 only, the team was better the more AP touched the ball

Edited July 15, 2013 by Crash

[Phins4life 271]

Same was probably said about Calvin Johnson and his 2000 yards

 

Johnson didn't get 2000 yards...either way that doesn't really make the situations the same.

 

As much as people like to say Peterson WAS the offense, it simply isn't true. A team HAS to have some semblance of a passing game (yes, 2700 yards counts) for a runner to pull it off, even him. Because the pass is less dependent on the run than the other way around, one could even argue that Johnson has a better chance of hitting 2000 yards than Peterson does, especially with so little balance in Detroit's play selection.

Edited July 15, 2013 by Phins4life

[KempBolt 498]

Same was probably said about Calvin Johnson and his 2000 yards

 

Megatron had 1964 yards, which was 116 more than the previous record held by Jerry Rice.

 

You're talking about a guy breaking the rushing record by at least 395 yards a year after he had 348 carries.

[KempBolt 498]

It also bears mentioning that no 2000 yard rusher has ever even reached 1500 yards the following season. So not only are we talking about AP doing better than Sanders, Dickerson, etc... We're talking about him doing better by a thousand yards.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

I personally hope the Vikings give AP unrealistic amount of caries it'd take to reach 2500 yards. They'd probably suck major ass.

[Dutch 874]

I personally hope the Vikings give AP unrealistic amount of caries it'd take to reach 2500 yards. They'd probably suck major ass.

 

Somewhat like how Stafford targeted Megatron a lot and almost reached 2,000 yards and they sucked major ass?

[KempBolt 498]

Somewhat like how Stafford targeted Megatron a lot and almost reached 2,000 yards and they sucked major ass?

 

Buuuuurrrrnnn!!!!

[KempBolt 498]

Just to further explain my point from earlier, here are all of the 2000 yard seasons we've seen out of a RB in NFL history and the way that they followed that season up:

 

- O.J. Simpson, 1973, 332 carries for 2003 yards at 6.0 YPC => 1974, 270 carries for 1125 yards at 4.2 YPC

 

- Eric Dickerson, 1984, 379 carries for 2105 yards at 5.6 YPC => 1985, 292 carries for 1234 yards at 4.2 YPC (missed 2 games)

 

- Barry Sanders, 1997, 335 carries for 2053 yards at 6.1 YPC => 1998, 343 carries for 1491 yards at 4.3 YPC

 

- Terrell Davis, 1998, 392 carries for 2008 yards at 5.1 YPC => 1999, 67 carries for 211 yards at 3.1 YPC (missed 12 games)

 

- Jamal Lewis, 2003, 387 carries for 2066 yards at 5.3 YPC => 2004, 235 carries for 1006 yards at 4.3 YPC (missed 4 games)

 

- Chris Johnson, 2010, 358 carries for 2006 yards at 5.6 YPC => 2010, 316 carries for 1364 yards at 4.3 YPC

 

-Adrian Peterson, 2012, 348 carries for 2097 yards at 6.0 YPC =>

 

The consistent dropoff in YPC is pretty astounding. The absolute best case in history was one full yard less per carry after the 2000 yard season, and the average has been 1.6. Now I understand that we're talking about a special player here, but if you want to try and tell me that he's so much better than guys in this list like Sanders, Dickerson, Davis, or Lewis that he's going to completely reverse what they were able to accomplish then I'm going to have to say that you're probably a prisoner of the moment.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Somewhat like how Stafford targeted Megatron a lot and almost reached 2,000 yards and they sucked major ass?

Yea, actually pretty much.