Saints Season Preview

[MCFLYYY 7]

Doing these for all 32 teams - the Saints are the first from the NFC South.

 

http://cappers.forumotion.com/t240-no-preview

 

Feedback and critique welcome.

[Thanatos 2,847]

Nawlins aint sweeping anyone, sry. You really underestimate all the other teams in the South.

 

Atlanta's defense wasn't decimated by the offseason, lol, just for starters.

[MCFLYYY 7]

Nawlins aint sweeping anyone, sry. You really underestimate all the other teams in the South.

 

Atlanta's defense wasn't decimated by the offseason, lol, just for starters.

 

They lost their best pass rusher and replaced him with Osi, who is not nearly the same quality.

 

They lost their best run stuffing DT and replaced him with no one.

 

They lost their top 2 CBs and replaced them with rookies.

 

They have an injury prone safety and no depth.

 

They have 1 quality LB.

 

This is all from a team that ranked 27th against the run and middle of the road pressuring the QB and in coverage. I see nowhere that they improved and several places where they are worse off.

 

Thanks for the opinion though.

[Thanatos 2,847]

They lost their best pass rusher and replaced him with Osi, who is not nearly the same quality.

 

They lost their best run stuffing DT and replaced him with no one.

 

They lost their top 2 CBs and replaced them with rookies.

 

They have an injury prone safety and no depth.

 

They have 1 quality LB.

 

This is all from a team that ranked 27th against the run and middle of the road pressuring the QB and in coverage. I see nowhere that they improved and several places where they are worse off.

 

Thanks for the opinion though.

 

John Abraham wasn't really playing all that well. He's old, over the hill, and the Falcons don't need him. Osi will be fine there.

 

Brent Grimes wasn't worth what he wanted, not to mention he was injured quite a bit. Their second-best corner is Asante Samuel and they still have him.

 

You don't really need more than 1 great LB, so long as the guys surrounding him are good. Weatherspoon is more than capable of leading that defense.

 

As far as safety goes, they have Thomas DeCoud and William Moore. DeCoud isn't great, but he's serviceable, and William Moore is going to turn heads this year. Did great last year. I still agree its their weak spot, but its not that bad.

 

Their best DT is Jonathan Babineaux, PFF stats notwithstanding. I assume you're referring to Vance Walker, but just because PFF stats say something doesn't mean its the case.

Edited July 18, 2013 by Thanatos19

[DavethePanther 37]

You seem to use a double standard in your analysis. Carolina Secondary worst in the NFL yet the Saints defense was the worst in NFL history. But you give all positives to your new defense (3-4) that usually takes a year or so really get used to. Rob Ryan didn't light it up in Dallas so assuming he is going to be a major difference is a reach.

 

You also didn't mention Carolina had the top ranked defense in the NFC South and the the Saints had the worst defense in NFL HISTORY!!! You didn't mention that Carolina addressed the worst secondary in the NFL with some good young talent. Josh Norman's issue wasn't lack of talent. He had to learn to do things a team way and not his own way. You didn't mention the overhaul of the Defensive Tackle position. A position that may have only one returning DT on the roster. I guess we'll see what your unbiased opinion is when you do the Panthers.

 

I believe the NFC South is going to be a dog fight and it wouldn't surprise me that everyone goes 3-3. To predict a sweep of a team that swept you in 2012 is pretty bold.

 

Good homer thread though... Got me excited if I were a Saints Fan.

[Phins4life 271]

You seem to use a double standard in your analysis. Carolina Secondary worst in the NFL yet the Saints defense was the worst in NFL history. But you give all positives to your new defense (3-4) that usually takes a year or so really get used to. Rob Ryan didn't light it up in Dallas so assuming he is going to be a major difference is a reach.

 

You also didn't mention Carolina had the top ranked defense in the NFC South and the the Saints had the worst defense in NFL HISTORY!!! You didn't mention that Carolina addressed the worst secondary in the NFL with some good young talent. Josh Norman's issue wasn't lack of talent. He had to learn to do things a team way and not his own way. You didn't mention the overhaul of the Defensive Tackle position. A position that may have only one returning DT on the roster. I guess we'll see what your unbiased opinion is when you do the Panthers.

 

I believe the NFC South is going to be a dog fight and it wouldn't surprise me that everyone goes 3-3. To predict a sweep of a team that swept you in 2012 is pretty bold.

 

Good homer thread though... Got me excited if I were a Saints Fan.

 

Homer?

 

 

OP is a Bengals fan...

[KempBolt 498]

They lost their best pass rusher and replaced him with Osi, who is not nearly the same quality.

 

They lost their best run stuffing DT and replaced him with no one.

 

They lost their top 2 CBs and replaced them with rookies.

 

They have an injury prone safety and no depth.

 

They have 1 quality LB.

 

This is all from a team that ranked 27th against the run and middle of the road pressuring the QB and in coverage. I see nowhere that they improved and several places where they are worse off.

 

Thanks for the opinion though.

 

I agree that Abraham to Osi is a downgrade. However I think the extent to which it's a step backwards is overblown if you're going by the PFF grades. Abraham inflated his final score by feasting on bad offensive tackles and getting pressure on blitzes when ATL sent 5+. But the bottom line is the same: the pass rush is a concern.

 

I'm not sure that Walker was their best run stuffing DT last year and I'm not really sure losing him is going to have that great of an impact. Not that he wasn't a good player last year, but I just don't see a major step down when you're talking about rotating Babineaux, Peters, and Jerry. But while I doubt ATL actually got worse at DT, I also don't think they got better. Which is a problem, because they needed to.

 

The Falcons' top cornerback a year ago was Asante Samuel. Yes, Grimes is better when healthy but he wasn't on the field in 2012 so losing him to Miami shouldn't impact what we see between the two seasons. The one player from last season that they lost, Dunt'a Robinson, is really overrated. They have McClain at nickel (he's actually pretty darn good), Samuel returning as the top corner, and Trufant coming in to replace Robinson. Rookie corners struggle, but an up and down season is exactly what Robinson gave them so I can't see that being a big step backwards. The other rookie, Alford, will be depth. I think they're fine at corner. In fact, this is the area where I think they potentially got better.

 

I can't argue with you about Moore's missed time the last two seasons. They need him and Decoud to both stay healthy, because they have very poor depth. But while both starters have deficiencies, both can be called decent on the whole. And having two decent safeties makes for a better than average starting duo. As long as they're in the lineup, I can't see the safeties being the major weakness on the roster.

 

Weatherspoon and Nicholas both had down years. To put it plainly, that can't happen again or their D will be in trouble.

 

Bottom line, I agree with you that the defense was not that good in 2012 and figures to be worse in 2013. What saved them last year was their big takeaway numbers (a hallmark of Nolan-led defenses in the beginning of his tenures with teams- before opposition gets good tape on how he's attacking offenses). They had 20 picks and 11 fumble recoveries. But history tells us that high takeaway numbers aren't a consistent stat from year to year. I could see that number regressing in a big way this season.

 

On the offensive side of the ball, I see concerns on the line. Peter Konz is now the starting center and he struggled mightily at guard last season when he was in the lineup. Sam Baker was very good, but it was the only good season he's put forth to date so one has to wonder if his health will hold up. Lamar Holmes is starting for the first time and almost definitely figures to be a step back from Tyson Clabo. I can envision issues cropping up.

 

On the whole, the Falcons are elite or nearly so at the "skill positions" (QB, RB, WR, TE, CB, S) but figure to be below average at the LOS (OL, DL).

[MCFLYYY 7]

John Abraham wasn't really playing all that well. He's old, over the hill, and the Falcons don't need him. Osi will be fine there.

 

Brent Grimes wasn't worth what he wanted, not to mention he was injured quite a bit. Their second-best corner is Asante Samuel and they still have him.

 

You don't really need more than 1 great LB, so long as the guys surrounding him are good. Weatherspoon is more than capable of leading that defense.

 

As far as safety goes, they have Thomas DeCoud and William Moore. DeCoud isn't great, but he's serviceable, and William Moore is going to turn heads this year. Did great last year. I still agree its their weak spot, but its not that bad.\

 

Their best DT is Jonathan Babineaux, PFF stats notwithstanding. I assume you're referring to Vance Walker, but just because PFF stats say something doesn't mean its the case.

 

Abraham was a top 10 pass rusher. Osi was outside the top 20 while playing across from a great pass rusher. Abraham did it alone.

 

Babineaux is a great all-around guy, but he is a better pass rusher while Walker was their run stuffer.

 

Grimes has been in the top 10 in coverage his last two full years (2010 and 2011). Samuel was outside the top 25 each of his least 2 years (including outside the top 50 in 2012). You cannot tell me Samuel is just as good as Grimes. Grimes is a solid cover guy, Samuel is a risk taker that gets torched frequently. It doesn't matter how much he wanted, Grimes was still the better corner.

 

1 great LB and 2 below average guys does not equal fine.

 

I said there was no depth at safety. The starting duo is great. Heaven forbid they have an injury because they have no one behind them though.

[KempBolt 498]

Getting back to the Saints:

 

-QB: Totally agree. No reason to think Brees won't be even better in 2013 with the re-addition of his head coach and playcaller.

 

-RB: Again, I agree. I don't much care for Ingram, but Thomas and Sproles are both studs and perfectly fit the needs of the offense.

 

-WR/TE: I disagree that it was a bad thing to let Henderson walk. It was a healthy move for the roster IMO. His game is based on speed, and he's well past 30... not a good situation. Between Morgan, Stills, Givens, and Toon there is a solid chance that they find a capable replacement for Devery. And said player will only need to act as the 5th/6th option behind Graham, Colston, Moore, Thomas, and Sproles.

 

-OL: The tackle situation is straight up bad. No getting around it. If a team is placing hope in the acquisition of Jason Smith, something is wrong. Best case scenario, Charles Brown wins the LT job outright and either Smith or Armstead unseat the detiorating Strief. I know OT's aren't as important to the Saints as to most teams, but having terrible ones will still come around to hurt them sooner or later.

 

-DL: I think this is going to actually be a good group. Bunkley might not be the typical 340 LB NT, but he's a stout run defender and in 2011 (when the Dallas D was healthy), Rob Ryan just put forth a 7th ranked run defense with the sub-300 lb Jay Ratliff at NT. I've been a big fan of Cameron Jordan since his days at Cal, and think he has always belonged in a 3-4, and Akiem Hicks flashed good things last season. Jenkins and Coleman are solid depth.

 

-LB: The starters should be ok, but the depth here is weak. Lofton and Hawthorne both lack athleticism, but that can be mitigated in a 3-4 where they only have to cover half the field. My money is on Wilson and Gallette to start, and I think they'll do quite well. But they have to stay healthy because there's nothing behind them. Butler is hurt and Smith is washed up. The other issue is which LB stays on in coverage on passing downs? I don't see coverage skills anywhere on their LB depth chart.

 

-Secondary: This is still the main concern. Their outside corners will be fine if healthy, but their nickel situation figures to be bad. Jenkins was bad in coverage last season, and I wouldn't count on Vaccaro being good right away either. Like was said- modest gains here still mean a bad secondary.

 

On the whole I like the Saints to win the division. To me, the defense looks capable of being middle of the road- and that's all the offense will need to win a lot of games. But the NFC South is wide open. I can realistically see any team taking it this year.

[Thanatos 2,847]

Abraham was a top 10 pass rusher. Osi was outside the top 20 while playing across from a great pass rusher. Abraham did it alone.

 

Babineaux is a great all-around guy, but he is a better pass rusher while Walker was their run stuffer.

 

Grimes has been in the top 10 in coverage his last two full years (2010 and 2011). Samuel was outside the top 25 each of his least 2 years (including outside the top 50 in 2012). You cannot tell me Samuel is just as good as Grimes. Grimes is a solid cover guy, Samuel is a risk taker that gets torched frequently. It doesn't matter how much he wanted, Grimes was still the better corner.

 

1 great LB and 2 below average guys does not equal fine.

 

I said there was no depth at safety. The starting duo is great. Heaven forbid they have an injury because they have no one behind them though.

 

I agree Grimes was the better corner, I didn't argue that. You said they lost their top 2 corners, I don't agree with that.

 

But you're just spouting off PFF stats, so whatever. I do like that you seem to have put a lot of time into this, but PFF is not the be-all end-all of evaluating a player. There's a lot of circumstances to take into account.

[KempBolt 498]

I agree Grimes was the better corner, I didn't argue that. You said they lost their top 2 corners, I don't agree with that.

 

But you're just spouting off PFF stats, so whatever. I do like that you seem to have put a lot of time into this, but PFF is not the be-all end-all of evaluating a player. There's a lot of circumstances to take into account.

 

I'd say that metrics from PFF or FO or ANS are good pieces to the puzzle and can support an opinion, but yeah- they're not the be all end all. Football is just way too complex a sport to accurately boil things down to hard numbers consistently. And the guys that run those sites would be the first to tell you that.

[Glanvilles Grits 142]

They lost their best pass rusher and replaced him with Osi, who is not nearly the same quality.

 

They lost their best run stuffing DT and replaced him with no one.

 

They lost their top 2 CBs and replaced them with rookies.

 

They have an injury prone safety and no depth.

 

They have 1 quality LB.

 

This is all from a team that ranked 27th against the run and middle of the road pressuring the QB and in coverage. I see nowhere that they improved and several places where they are worse off.

 

Thanks for the opinion though.

 

Osi had a down year and shows signs of steep decline. No doubt about that. However, John Abraham was terrible down the stretch and he wasn't on the field enough to even be a factor a lot of the times. You're talking about a guy who had 2 good games and if it weren't for those two games against TERRIBLE lines, he would be a below average defensive end still. Abraham and Osi are probably the same caliber player at this point in their careers so I call it a wash.

 

Top 2 CBs Brent Grimes didn't even play last year, so there is NO loss compared to last year. Dunta Robinson was alright in pass coverage, but we watched him blowing tackles and giving up huge plays most of the time. Replacing Robinson with either Trufant or Alford is an upgrade, no matter if they are rookies. They both show better ball skills and raw talent than Robinson ever had on the Falcons. McClain will probably still hold the nickel position on defense barring a rookie beats him out.

 

Injury Prone Safety Injury prone safety? First off, Thomas DeCoud is always healthy so I assume you're trying to name Moore as injury prone. He has missed 4 games in each of the last two seasons. You can actually say he missed 2 games in 2011 instead of 4 because he was cleared and Mike Smith held him out to save him for the playoffs. It's not like this guy is being injured jogging around. Last year he was injured in a field collision. Everyone gets slapped with an injury prone label these days. Truth is, half the guys that are labeled that really aren't and it's blown out of proportion. He needs to stay healthy, period. He's not Darren McFadden.

 

1 Quality Linebacker Sean Weatherspoon is a monster. Stephen Nicholas, while not an all-pro, has shown to be MORE than serviceable as an outside linebacker in the 4-3 system. In fact, he played absolutely phenomenal up until week 13. At that point, he kind of hit a wall. But he wasn't so terrible that you could say he was near the bottom of the league during that stretch. Akeem Dent is horrible. Our middle linebacker position is a big question mark but luckily, being in the NFC South, we don't run 3 linebacker sets very often. Also, we added Brian Banks, who I am very high on. The kid has so much potential - the sky is the limit.

 

I just feel like you're taking a media stance on the entire NFC South. Not too well informed on this one. Again, while stats are good things to use as a corner stone, they aren't the say all end all. Brent Grimes DID NOT play last season after the first quarter of week 1, so he can not be chalked up as a loss on the defense. Rookies or not, Alford and Trufant are clear upgrades to Robinson as our RCB. John Abraham didn't "do it alone" because he was in a rotation. He didn't see the field near as many times I bet as most starting defensive ends that are in the top 5 or 10 that you're looking at. Great stats, but look at the big picture. Abraham was not that good. And that's coming from someone that wants to see Abe and the Falcons reconnect!

 

 

I think Thanatos and others probably could have told you I was going to jump on this one! Haha

[DavethePanther 37]

Homer?

 

 

OP is a Bengals fan...

 

Soooooooooo

 

What part of the Bold didn't you get? The man predicted they were going to sweep a team that beat them twice?

 

I don't care what team he follows it sounded like he was a New Orleans fan. Not much negativity in the post considering they had the worst defense in NFL History.

[Phins4life 271]

Soooooooooo

 

What part of the Bold didn't you get? The man predicted they were going to sweep a team that beat them twice?

 

I don't care what team he follows it sounded like he was a New Orleans fan. Not much negativity in the post considering they had the worst defense in NFL History.

 

The Saints aren't his team, genius...it's one of the qualifiers of being a homer...yet you refer to him as "you" as if he's a Saints fan.

 

Am I really wasting my time answering this post?

[MCFLYYY 7]

Soooooooooo

 

What part of the Bold didn't you get? The man predicted they were going to sweep a team that beat them twice?

 

I don't care what team he follows it sounded like he was a New Orleans fan. Not much negativity in the post considering they had the worst defense in NFL History.

 

The Saints won 7 games in 2012 with the worst defense in the league and no head coach simply because of their offense. Now they have their coach back and they appear to have made some modest improvements to a defense that should regress them nearer toward average.

 

They lost to the Panthers by a combined 13 points while their defense gave up 77. If you think that 38-44 loss at home to the Panthers in week 17 is at all representative of what you'll see out of the Saints in 2013, it's been WAY too long since you saw the 2011 Saints (13-3, 5-1 in the NFCS).

[Mentch 42]

I'm not 100% sold on the improvements the Saints have made yet. That being said I think they'll return to the playoffs this year. Just about everything seemed to go wrong for them last year, yet they were still able to get back into it at 5-5 at one point in time before losing 3 straight to effectively end their season. Their defense of course was historically bad, but there's no way they give up 440 yards a game again this year. I dont expect everything to magically click again either now that Payton is back, but his presence alone will make an impact, and of course as long as the Saints still have Drew Brees, theyre never truly out of a game. 10-6 and 2nd in the division is what I have them as, with a wild card spot

[KempBolt 498]

The Saints aren't his team, genius...it's one of the qualifiers of being a homer...yet you refer to him as "you" as if he's a Saints fan.

 

Am I really wasting my time answering this post?

 

Seems to me that this is probably more to do with DavethePanther being a homer than MCFLYYY.

Edited July 19, 2013 by KempBolt

[Glanvilles Grits 142]

I think it's completely realistic for the Saints to have a great record in 2013. However, I don't think it's realistic that they win the division. I think all 4 teams are going to be in the running and I don't see any of the 4 accomplishing a 13 win season (The Panthers, as I've stated before, are my personal least likely to succeed). I don't see the Saints sweeping any of the other teams in the south though. The thing about the South is that they are all built to stop eachother. What each team does well on offense is what the other teams are able to stop (Cam Newton & Company being the wild card of the bunch). I can also easily make a strong case for the South to be the toughest division in football because of all the teams being so competitive and having solid rosters.

[Eefluxx 113]

-WR/TE: I disagree that it was a bad thing to let Henderson walk. It was a healthy move for the roster IMO. His game is based on speed, and he's well past 30... not a good situation. Between Morgan, Stills, Givens, and Toon there is a solid chance that they find a capable replacement for Devery. And said player will only need to act as the 5th/6th option behind Graham, Colston, Moore, Thomas, and Sproles.

 

 

I agree with both you and Mccflyy on this about Henderson. For one I think it was a healthy move to let him go and get younger at the position. For the other, Henderson was our best blocking WR. He set the edge for our RB's many a time in games and this is something I don't think Joe Morgan has excelled at yet. So he will be missed and it will hurt for awhile but I do agree it was a healthy move.

 

 

As for the rest of the article. Dave Thomas was worthless in the passing game and Zach Strief graded near the bottom in blocking, Both were hurt for much of the year last year, not hard to figure out they weren't going to produce like they have in the past.

 

As for the rest of the NFC South. Fuck the rest of the NFL the NFC South is the best division.

 

So many things can go right or wrong. If the Saints defense regains middle of the pack they have a good chance for the division. If Atlanta plays the same way the did last year they will be the first repeat South champs. If Josh Freeman shows some consistency and Revis is 85% Bucs could walk away with it. If Panthers finally realized they have 2 great running backs to take pressure of Cam (which I think they have this year), I mean honestly, what other division is worth watching?

 

NFC South Homer rant end.

[BC 331]

I mean Brees will have to be lights out and turn Lance Moore into a solid #2 receiver. But we saw Manning to 12-4 with the Colts numerous times with a shitty defense so its possible.