My 2014 NFL Draft Thoughts (Part 2)

[butta54 371]

As said before this is where I'll be posting some of my thoughts leading up to the draft. As of right now I am through three stages of my evaluation process. I recently finished my first evaluation of each offensive & defensive position and here are some of my observations.....

 

• This draft is being called one of the deepest draft classes in many years. I agree it is a very deep class at most positions, because it lacks talent at the top of the draft. There are alot of players with similar talent levels clustered together in each position

 

• Going off the previous point, this draft class is largely based off potential. The top players in a draft usually have a pretty good amount of potential to get better, but also come in with talent to contribute right away. There aren't alot of these types of players in this draft. The largest group of underclassmen to declare for the draft is part of the reason. Less experience and less technique overall makes this junior-heavy draft risky.

 

• The tackles in this draft aren't close to the group from last year. I'm not sure what it is that everyone is so excited about in this class. Joeckel is by far better than anyone in this draft. Robinson is not a good pass blocker, Matthews is sloppy on both sides, and Lewan is the most complete, but not on the level from last year (which is why he stayed)

 

• I said Bortles was my favorite on my first glance and that hasn't changed. I'm not sure if any of these QBs are a first round talent by today's standards (Thanks Andrew Luck). I mentioned I didn't like Bridewater's mechanics and now everyone agrees after his pro day. Manziel is pure Boom or Bust so no reason to over-analyze. AJ McCarron to me is being knocked for no reason, he has the ultimate floor as a QB.

 

• The receiver class is STACKED. And it was last year despite what people think, There is a little of everything in this class from the go up & get guys, to slots, to YAC guys. However, unlike last year...most of these guys really can't run routes.

 

• Speaking of receivers...I look at the Brandin Cooks hype exploding and I can't help but laugh. Did we not go through this last year with Tavin Austin? Exact same situation and if he gets boosted to a first round pick don't be shocked if he has a similar rookie year as Austin.

 

• ALL the LB talent is in the middle rounds. While this group is a huge drop off from last year, there are some good players. No Height-Weight-Speed freaks that you want to see in the tradtional LB spot, but very good ball players. Mosely is the #1 according to everyone and he is extremely unimpressive. He will fit well in a weakside spot, but if he is the best then it tells you about this unit.

 

• Speaking of LBs.....All three Iowa senior LBs are in this draft and they are a very IMPRESSIVE group on tape. Don't be suprised to see one or two of them to get on as a late round darkhorse who becomes a starter.

 

• The DB group is much better than last year's class which is what I said in my first post. I confirmed it through film...the talent & athleticism is much better at the top than last year's class. There is a buffet of DBs similar to the receiver group. Pick your flavor of cover guys, press guys, big corners, rangy safeties, and big-hitting safeties.

 

• Within the DB group I am confused. Gilbert is said to be the top corner, but Verrett is by far better than any corner in this class. If you watch the tape I would love for you to show me how you disagree. He is about two inches shorter than the other corners so he is "undersized", but his almost 40in vertical makes up for some of that. Clinton-Dix looked very unimpressive on film and not sure why he is rated ahead of Pryor. And in my opinion Brooks from Florida State and Bucannon from Washington State are much much more impressive safety prospects than anyone else.

 

• As mentioned in my last post...the interior linemen group is so far from last year's class. Not many quality starters at all.

 

• Same goes for the TE class. Ebron's hype is being beyond inflated because his blocking is beyond horrible.

 

• If you like Kahlil Mack, then how do you feel about Jack Mewhort? In the Ohio State game Mack was pretty much dominated whenever he lined up against Mewhort. All the big plays came when Mack lined up against the RT.

 

• More than ever before it will be extremely important to see the SCHEME in which these players go. With less talent and technique the system will be vital to the success of most of these players.

Edited April 25, 2014 by butta55

[BC 331]

Agree with most points. This is the one year where I will be glued to my TV on day 2.

Edited April 13, 2014 by BC

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

- Blocking for a tight end imo is extremely irrelevant when they have the potential that guys like Britton have.

 

- Greg Robinson's athleticism and potential in of itself should be enough to possibly leap frog him to even the top of last year's draft tackle class. 6'5, 332, 35" arms, and the power in his lower body to move as fast, and as well, as he can. You coach him up, you have probably the best tackle in the NFL for a long time. At his worst, unless he flops major, he is an elite guard. As a prospect, it doesn't get any more impressive then him outside of Clowney.

 

- Tavon Austin deserved to go where he went, and was simply underused for the first half of the season. When they finally started using him, how many players in the league were more dynamic? I don't see more of Steve Smith, Antonio Brown in Brandin then Austin, but still... Not that bad, and I see him as worth a first round pick.

[butta54 371]

- Blocking for a tight end imo is extremely irrelevant when they have the potential that guys like Britton have.

 

- Greg Robinson's athleticism and potential in of itself should be enough to possibly leap frog him to even the top of last year's draft tackle class. 6'5, 332, 35" arms, and the power in his lower body to move as fast, and as well, as he can. You coach him up, you have probably the best tackle in the NFL for a long time. At his worst, unless he flops major, he is an elite guard. As a prospect, it doesn't get any more impressive then him outside of Clowney.

 

 

A couple of points that lead teams in this "new-wave" state of mind into traps during the draft. For everyone that thinks tight ends don't have to block anymore and will stay out in the slot for the whole game Ebron looks like a great pick. However, if you want to actually win and be an elite player you will have to learn how to block in-line. If history has proven one thing in the playoffs it's that the winners have strong running games and a strong running game doesn't work without a tight end who can put his hand down and block.

 

Secondly athleticism has a long history of tricking teams into taking bust. I think coaching is more important than most people do and I'm bias, but you can't work miracles with every player. Greg Robinson in no way shape or form to me is close to Joeckel. You said at worst you move him to guard, and depending on who takes him I think that's where he eventually ends up, but how many top 5 picks do you see being used on guards? A team that takes him and throws him in a left tackle hoping for a pro bowler will have to live with some growing pains.

[butta54 371]

- Tavon Austin deserved to go where he went, and was simply underused for the first half of the season. When they finally started using him, how many players in the league were more dynamic? I don't see more of Steve Smith, Antonio Brown in Brandin then Austin, but still... Not that bad, and I see him as worth a first round pick.

 

I agree Austin was underutilized and that is part of the reason I brought up Cooks been in a similar situation simply because guys like Austin, Cooks, and McCluster have to be used in a certain way with certain plays to get the most out of them. And I believe a team that takes Cooks in the first round is looking at him to do something more then he might be capable of similar to how they tried to force Austin into that role. The team that drafts Cooks will need to make specific creative plays for him, but I do think he is a much more complete receiver than Austin was last year.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

TEs who can block are all over the draft- and free agency. Good luck finding guys who do what he does in either.

 

Additionally, athleticism fools teams into making mistakes when the tape isn't there to back it up. Such isn't the case with Robinson. Teams making mistakes in the past due to athleticism is irrelevant to Robinson. None of those guys are Robinson, and going by that logic fails to account for how great the player was/will turn out if he doesn't bust.

 

From a technique perspective Luke was considered a great prospect. Didn't do him too much good for a good portion of the year before he went down, and the athleticism and strength questions were legit. You can teach technique. You can't teach athleticism and potential on a product like Robinson.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Everyone out of Iowa is pretty underrated. Both CJ Fiedorowicz and James Morris especially. Somebody is going to rape with value and skill.

Although you are very wrong about the tackles. Lewan is maybe one of the most overrated players in this draft, IMO. And Jake Matthews will be the best lineman in any class over the last few years or so -- and pretty easily.

[butta54 371]

TEs who can block are all over the draft- and free agency. Good luck finding guys who do what he does in either.

 

Additionally, athleticism fools teams into making mistakes when the tape isn't there to back it up. Such isn't the case with Robinson. Teams making mistakes in the past due to athleticism is irrelevant to Robinson. None of those guys are Robinson, and going by that logic fails to account for how great the player was/will turn out if he doesn't bust.

 

From a technique perspective Luke was considered a great prospect. Didn't do him too much good for a good portion of the year before he went down, and the athleticism and strength questions were legit. You can teach technique. You can't teach athleticism and potential on a product like Robinson.

 

Ebron isn't the only route-running TE coming out and his route tree wasn't at an NFL level, the spread concepts that he ran in college are alot more simplistic than what he will be asked to do. And really it doesn't matter, you are mistaken if you think he will see playing time blocking the way he currently does.

 

Robinson's tape is there and the tape says he isn't a good pass blocker despite his elite athleticism and that scares me more. Players have coaches in college too....so the technique was being taught and it is up to a player to have the mental capacity to bring it from practice to the game. Robinson has the most potential out of any linemen in awhile, but not every team has the time to wait for that to develop.

 

And while Joeckel struggled at right tackle, he showed enough promise for the Jags to trade away a very good left tackle in Monroe. Joeckel like most of the tackles last year lacked upper body strength, athleticism was never the issue. Right and Left tackles are asked to do very different things and coming back from injury he will show his potential. But if Robinson can't protect the blindside then he will have no business on the left side.

Everyone out of Iowa is pretty underrated. Both CJ Fiedorowicz and James Morris especially. Somebody is going to rape with value and skill.

 

Although you are very wrong about the tackles. Lewan is maybe one of the most overrated players in this draft, IMO. And Jake Matthews will be the best lineman in any class over the last few years or so -- and pretty easily.

 

And what do you see in Matthews that makes you believe that? Cause all I saw was someone who lacked a run blocking attitude and was constantly being bull-rushed into Johnny Football's lap

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

The guy played almost 100% of the time out of a 2 point stance. Probably spent 80-90% of his time in practice run blocking. You really think his coaches spent time teaching him how to properly kick, slide, punch? Even when he's pass blocking it seems like he's blocking for a draw play. He was taught- and encouraged to be a mauler, and his pass blocking considering how little time he spends doing it is not that bad.

 

And like I said about Ebron, tight ends come in every year who can block, not every year do tight ends come out who can compare to the like of Jimmy Graham as mismatches, etc. That in of itself separates him from other TEs in this class, and makes him the best option. His playing weight in college was 245 pounds, you'd have to be crazy as a coach to line him up in line consistently and ask him to block.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Yeah I don't think we can judge Fisher, Joeckel, Johnson from last year fairly given their position changes. Only Johnson survived health wise and by the end of the year you really started to see his potential and he got much better at RT. With Fisher and Joeckel this year they'll be moved back to their natural position of LT so we can really start to see what they're made of. Joeckel did look impressive in his only start at LT for one quarter against Robert Quinn and then #BecauseJaguars his ankle exploded when it was undercut from behind. To me Matthews looks the better pass blocker athleticism wise, not as good at run blocking but neither did Joeckel look in that spread system either so who knows. Sumlin doesn't it make it easy for us to project these OTs and Cedric Ogbuehi (another good OT prospect out of A&M) is coming out next year to torture us again

 

In terms of the TE stuff, I think you're definitely being too hard line with the blocking. Tony Gonzalez avoided blocking like SARS in his time in the league and he did just fine (though obviously these TEs can't hold a candle to Gonzo's receiving skills.) On top of that — Marcedes Lewis came out of UCLA and the reputation on him was he was strictly a WR masquerading as a TE and couldn't block to save his life. Fast forward to his NFL career and him being drafted under Jack Del Rio's coaching staffs and he's been transformed into a strictly blocking TE who might catch a pass here and there. Point being these guys are physically more than capable of blocking. Although the rare diva like attitude would make it a lot tougher, only guys who could potentially have that in the class seems to be Ebron and maybe Lyerla. Regardless, they're more than capable, get the right coaches with them who know how to manage their personalities and they'll flourish there. I agree with Favre too about Fiedorowicz. Iowa didn't utilize him receiving wise much at all, I think he can definitely do more and obviously he can block pretty well.

[butta54 371]

The guy played almost 100% of the time out of a 2 point stance. Probably spent 80-90% of his time in practice run blocking. You really think his coaches spent time teaching him how to properly kick, slide, punch? Even when he's pass blocking it seems like he's blocking for a draw play. He was taught- and encouraged to be a mauler, and his pass blocking considering how little time he spends doing it is not that bad.

 

And like I said about Ebron, tight ends come in every year who can block, not every year do tight ends come out who can compare to the like of Jimmy Graham as mismatches, etc. That in of itself separates him from other TEs in this class, and makes him the best option. His playing weight in college was 245 pounds, you'd have to be crazy as a coach to line him up in line consistently and ask him to block.

 

-Ummmm......yes I do think they spent time teaching him how to properly pass block as they do in high school and every other level. No one goes into a practice not teaching all the tools of the position. The team ran alot of read and zone option true, but you still are being taught the fundamentals. He is a RAW prospect and I have NO problem with that, potential is a great thing but so is technique. My point is not whether or not he deserves to be a high pick in this draft, my point is that compared to last year's prospects I rather have them because at least they have their fundamentals down as well as a ceiling to get better.

 

-I agree Ebron is the best in this class and never denied that. BUT that doesn't make him a monster of a tight end prospect. He isn't better than Eifert and that has been said by many GMs so far being asked about the TE class this year. Eifert couldn't block his sophomore year and guess what...he got better because he worked hard to improve and his route running/catching ability didn't suffer for it. Ebron is an incomplete prospect in a draft full of incomplete TEs. Yes he is going to be a mismatch problem, but he is beyond HORRIBLE at blocking and that won't get you on the field, even Jimmy Graham can block and he works at it despite being flexed out about 90% of the time.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Complete TE? Someone with the unique frame to create mismatches everywhere on the field but also a tough and hard nosed blocker?

Ya, he is in this draft. His name is CJ Fiedorowicz.

And if all you see when you put on Jake Matthews tape is him getting pushed backward, you are looking too hard. He really doesn't even have a weakness. He does get beat... but rarely, Every lineman you ever watch is going to get beat. Matthews is the best technical phenom in this ENTIRE DRAFT CLASS. Even if he faces somebody, faster or stornger than he is... he is still going to shut them down. It also must be noted the difference in blocking for a real QB who is looking to throw the ball versus a quasi-QB like Manziel whose first instinct is to scramble.

[butta54 371]

Complete TE? Someone with the unique frame to create mismatches everywhere on the field but also a tough and hard nosed blocker?

 

Ya, he is in this draft. His name is CJ Fiedorowicz.

 

And if all you see when you put on Jake Matthews tape is him getting pushed backward, you are looking too hard. He really doesn't even have a weakness. He does get beat... but rarely, Every lineman you ever watch is going to get beat. Matthews is the best technical phenom in this ENTIRE DRAFT CLASS. Even if he faces somebody, faster or stornger than he is... he is still going to shut them down. It also must be noted the difference in blocking for a real QB who is looking to throw the ball versus a quasi-QB like Manziel whose first instinct is to scramble.

 

-Fiedorowicz has the frame to create mismatches, but not the speed or athleticism. He is a top-notch blocker with great technique for the most part, and he is definitely a factor in the passing game. But he isn't fast enough to create alot of separation on his routes or threaten the seams against NFL speed. I'll admit he is alot closer to a complete product than everyone else (Except Amaro).

 

-I'm sorry but no Matthews did not shut everyone down, you don't have to get sacks to effectively create pressure or "win" the battle. Strength bothered Matthews very heavily and one move in particular if you watch the film you will see the "long arm" techinque where defenders extend their arm on the outside shoulder of the tackle to create separation and bullrush while setting up space to make another counter move. He was constantly put into the pocket by this move. And the fact that Johnny Football moved around helped him rather then hurt him, because a pocket QB will be getting sacked as Matthew gets pushed right into him. His hand placement is inconsistent, he likes to grab rather then punch defenders and that leads to holding. He is upright and lets defenders into his chest very easily and leads to his problem anchoring against strength. He has some good tools, but he is not the world-beater everyone describes him as.

Edited April 15, 2014 by butta55

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

 

The guy played almost 100% of the time out of a 2 point stance. Probably spent 80-90% of his time in practice run blocking. You really think his coaches spent time teaching him how to properly kick, slide, punch? Even when he's pass blocking it seems like he's blocking for a draw play. He was taught- and encouraged to be a mauler, and his pass blocking considering how little time he spends doing it is not that bad.

 

And like I said about Ebron, tight ends come in every year who can block, not every year do tight ends come out who can compare to the like of Jimmy Graham as mismatches, etc. That in of itself separates him from other TEs in this class, and makes him the best option. His playing weight in college was 245 pounds, you'd have to be crazy as a coach to line him up in line consistently and ask him to block.

 

-Ummmm......yes I do think they spent time teaching him how to properly pass block as they do in high school and every other level. No one goes into a practice not teaching all the tools of the position. The team ran alot of read and zone option true, but you still are being taught the fundamentals. He is a RAW prospect and I have NO problem with that, potential is a great thing but so is technique. My point is not whether or not he deserves to be a high pick in this draft, my point is that compared to last year's prospects I rather have them because at least they have their fundamentals down as well as a ceiling to get better.

 

-I agree Ebron is the best in this class and never denied that. BUT that doesn't make him a monster of a tight end prospect. He isn't better than Eifert and that has been said by many GMs so far being asked about the TE class this year. Eifert couldn't block his sophomore year and guess what...he got better because he worked hard to improve and his route running/catching ability didn't suffer for it. Ebron is an incomplete prospect in a draft full of incomplete TEs. Yes he is going to be a mismatch problem, but he is beyond HORRIBLE at blocking and that won't get you on the field, even Jimmy Graham can block and he works at it despite being flexed out about 90% of the time.

 

 

I'm sure he's received plenty coaching on proper pass pro on the same team that ran the ball the 2nd most of any of the 120+ DI teams and passed the ball the 8th least amount of times of every team in DI. Especially since when they did throw the ball, it was 90% of the time play action which definitely requires a lot of great footwork.

 

And Jimmy Graham can block? Jimmy Graham isn't even a willing blocker, let alone asked to block, and when he does is shitty at it. You won't find a tight end who starts with a lesser percentage of snaps as a blocker. He only plays 67% of his team's total snaps and a vast majority of them are at wide receiver or flexed slot or HB. Yet the Saints slapped him with a franchise tag worth 2 first round picks. Let's stop acting like in today's NFL, being a complete tight end is that relevant. A tight end who can cause mismatches as a receiver is good enough to warrant a top 15 pick.

[butta54 371]

 

 

The guy played almost 100% of the time out of a 2 point stance. Probably spent 80-90% of his time in practice run blocking. You really think his coaches spent time teaching him how to properly kick, slide, punch? Even when he's pass blocking it seems like he's blocking for a draw play. He was taught- and encouraged to be a mauler, and his pass blocking considering how little time he spends doing it is not that bad.

 

And like I said about Ebron, tight ends come in every year who can block, not every year do tight ends come out who can compare to the like of Jimmy Graham as mismatches, etc. That in of itself separates him from other TEs in this class, and makes him the best option. His playing weight in college was 245 pounds, you'd have to be crazy as a coach to line him up in line consistently and ask him to block.

 

-Ummmm......yes I do think they spent time teaching him how to properly pass block as they do in high school and every other level. No one goes into a practice not teaching all the tools of the position. The team ran alot of read and zone option true, but you still are being taught the fundamentals. He is a RAW prospect and I have NO problem with that, potential is a great thing but so is technique. My point is not whether or not he deserves to be a high pick in this draft, my point is that compared to last year's prospects I rather have them because at least they have their fundamentals down as well as a ceiling to get better.

 

-I agree Ebron is the best in this class and never denied that. BUT that doesn't make him a monster of a tight end prospect. He isn't better than Eifert and that has been said by many GMs so far being asked about the TE class this year. Eifert couldn't block his sophomore year and guess what...he got better because he worked hard to improve and his route running/catching ability didn't suffer for it. Ebron is an incomplete prospect in a draft full of incomplete TEs. Yes he is going to be a mismatch problem, but he is beyond HORRIBLE at blocking and that won't get you on the field, even Jimmy Graham can block and he works at it despite being flexed out about 90% of the time.

 

 

I'm sure he's received plenty coaching on proper pass pro on the same team that ran the ball the 2nd most of any of the 120+ DI teams and passed the ball the 8th least amount of times of every team in DI. Especially since when they did throw the ball, it was 90% of the time play action which definitely requires a lot of great footwork.

 

And Jimmy Graham can block? Jimmy Graham isn't even a willing blocker, let alone asked to block, and when he does is shitty at it. You won't find a tight end who starts with a lesser percentage of snaps as a blocker. He only plays 67% of his team's total snaps and a vast majority of them are at wide receiver or flexed slot or HB. Yet the Saints slapped him with a franchise tag worth 2 first round picks. Let's stop acting like in today's NFL, being a complete tight end is that relevant. A tight end who can cause mismatches as a receiver is good enough to warrant a top 15 pick.

 

 

At the end of the day these are professional coaches and there is no doubt in my mind that they are coaching pass blocking, especially when I've seen a number of spread option teams still put lineman on the field who know how to pass protect. I think we are on the same page about his place in this draft and that's the more relevant point so there isn't much more to debate about that.

 

Jimmy Graham has said before since coming into the league his blocking is what has improved the most and Payton praised him earlier on for his efforts in progressing as an all-around TE from a basketball player. He was used mostly flexed out this year and maybe next year, but the system isn't the same everywhere and what makes you a great player is the ability to fit into multiple systems. No matter the passing league craze that people think is going to make the run game disappear the truth is the game will always have both and will always warrant complete players. Ebron can go ahead to a pass heavy offense that flexs him out and never uses him to block one single down. He better just hope he sticks with that team or else he will be exposed.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Fiedorowicz is going to be 10x the player that Amaro will be at the next level. Amaro is probably going to bust out of the league in 3ish years.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Amaro is probably going to bust out of the league in 3ish years.

 

Wow. I got a way different opinion on Amaro lol. I don't see that at all. I can see him being a nice play making option split in the slot/seam standing up. Has good YAC ability, has subtle moves to get open. He could always bust, but I don't see it from what I've watched. I'm gonna rewatch his games over again though just in case I was in the old infamous "tape coma" when I was viewing him, I'll report back if my opinion changed.

Edited April 16, 2014 by CampinWithGoatSampson

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

He's going to get dominated at the next level. Not saying there isn't a lick of talent to be had... But he just isn't good enough. He's going to get pushed around, and is going to be banged up ALL the time (granted, everyone is.. But more so than your typical pro). He also looks half brain dead running routes and like he doesn't want to be on the field half the time.

I wouldn't touch him in the draft at any point.