Update: Marshawn Lynch to hold out of training camp

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Lynch has no leverage. If I was the Seahawks I'd do nothing. His real talent/value hastens his decline.

 

Totally get where he's coming from, and I don't blame a guy for wanting more money... But it's probably not gonna happen.

[Attyla the Hawk 197]

I expect him to sit out TC. It is literally not a big deal in the least. The last two seasons, he's barely played or participated at all anyway in order to save the punishment for the season. That's been a coaching decision.

 

At the end, the Hawks will move money around to increase the guarantees. PC/JS have been very up front and candid with players about where they stand and it's plain to see that Lynch's contract will not be on the books in 2015. I'd be surprised if that's not been already asked and answered between the parties already. Both parties know this is Lynch's last decent contract.

 

Seattle has taken care of their own at virtually every opportunity. There is little fear of setting a precedent because that is already Seattle's MO. Browner and the team knew he was going to get a controlled substance ban last year, and Seattle actually called him into the office mid season to unilaterally offer him more salary in order to help increase the payout to offset the forfeited salary later in the year. They knew it would kill him in his contract year and they had the cash to spare.

 

They still have the cash to spare. Lynch has done nothing but reward Seattle with his play and his leadership. Seattle will bend over backwards to reward the guys that merit rewarding. Marshawn sits at the head of that particular table. I'm not worried about precedent because if a guy not worthy of getting a bump tried the same thing, he'd be Golden Tate'd out of the organization straight away.

 

Prediction. Hold out till end of August. Increase of guarantees, maybe even adding some in 2015 where there currently is none.

[Vin+ 3,121]

 

Coach Pete Carroll indicated the Seahawks have no intention of satisfying Marshawn Lynch's contract demands.

It's not even entirely clear what Lynch's demands are, but he's skipping training camp and wants more money. "Just a couple of years back we made a big statement and made a big effort for him and we wish that he was with us now," said Carroll, referring to the four-year, $31 million deal Lynch signed in March of 2012. "But this is a tremendous opportunity for the guys getting their shot. Robert Turbin and Christine Michael, they're ready to go and really fired up about this opportunity and are going to try and take full advantage of it."

Source: ESPN.com

[oochymp 2,393]

And he is already getting paid like a Top 5 back in the league per base salary (7th when looking at total cap hit, although I don't feel that is totally fair or accurate to judge by).

I don't want to totally derail this thread, but why don't you think looking at cap hit is a fair/accurate way to judge a contract? personally I think it's a better measure because it spreads the signing bonus, a critical part of an NFL contract, across the length of the deal and includes bonuses

[SteVo+ 3,702]

I don't want to totally derail this thread, but why don't you think looking at cap hit is a fair/accurate way to judge a contract? personally I think it's a better measure because it spreads the signing bonus, a critical part of an NFL contract, across the length of the deal and includes bonuses

 

But there's a lot of variance with the base salary that affects the cap hit. Lynch's cap figure in 2012 was $5.5 million; in 2015 it will be $9 million. That's a big difference.

 

The fairest way to assess a contract on a yearly basis, in my opinion, is average salary: the total amount of the contract divided by the years.

[oochymp 2,393]

 

But there's a lot of variance with the base salary that affects the cap hit. Lynch's cap figure in 2012 was $5.5 million; in 2015 it will be $9 million. That's a big difference.

 

The fairest way to assess a contract on a yearly basis, in my opinion, is average salary: the total amount of the contract divided by the years.

okay, looks like I'm derailing this thread, sorry, the problem with using average salary is that a lot of contracts are either front loaded so that the team doesn't pay as much for the years when they expect the player's ability to be deteriorating or intentionally back loaded with huge numbers at the end of the deal that everyone knows the player isn't getting that allow the agent to brag about the total money he got his client

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

okay, looks like I'm derailing this thread, sorry, the problem with using average salary is that a lot of contracts are either front loaded so that the team doesn't pay as much for the years when they expect the player's ability to be deteriorating or intentionally back loaded with huge numbers at the end of the deal that everyone knows the player isn't getting that allow the agent to brag about the total money he got his client

That's why I don't like using it -- because of the likelihood that you are looking at and comparing maybe a contract that is super front loaded and in year two compared to a contract in year two that is heavy back loaded. It just doesn't really give you an accurate picture, IMO.

 

Although, tbh.. I will say I was wrong and base salary isn't really a great measure. Stevo and his average salary though, I really dig.

[SteVo+ 3,702]

okay, looks like I'm derailing this thread, sorry, the problem with using average salary is that a lot of contracts are either front loaded so that the team doesn't pay as much for the years when they expect the player's ability to be deteriorating or intentionally back loaded with huge numbers at the end of the deal that everyone knows the player isn't getting that allow the agent to brag about the total money he got his client

 

I'm gonna try to get the thread back on track.

 

You definitely can't just use average salary to assess a contract as a whole, but in holdout situations like this, I think it's the fairest way to judge whether or not a player is underpaid. Looking at the cap hit can be incredibly misleading.

 

As an example, look at Mike Wallace's contract. Last year his cap hit was $3.25 million. Holy crap, that's insanely low. I realize Mike is a little overrated, but damn, give that man a raise! Well, his cap hit this season is $17.25 million (highest WR in the NFL, 11th highest overall). Holy crap, Miami needs to restructure pronto. Now, if we look at the contract as a whole, Mike signed a 5-year, $60 million deal, which is a $12 million average salary. That puts him 3rd in the NFL as of 2014.

 

So, to summarize: yes, you need to look at a lot of factors (cap hit, roster bonus, incentives) to comprehend a full contract, but to determine value, i.e. if a player is overpaid/underpaid, average salary is the simplest, most efficient way that avoids a misleading figure.

[the Lions fan 19]

Everyone arguing in his favor is missing a key factor. Hes already being paid... i wouldnt consider him a top 5 back. Top 5 power or two down back... maybe... but hes already getting paid. He better learn to rush the passer if he wants a raise or hes gonna watch Michael and Robert make the twelfth man forget all about skittles .

 

And Bc, he wants more money. Hes apparently concerned he will be injured this season. Hes on a high horse cause hes making a biopic. His egos all inflated. Unfortunately for him SEA is one of the best run organizations. Is already paying him and already has contingency plan ready...

[BC 331]

How much more money? You getting this info from facts somewhere or just speculating stuff? I don't see how anyone can read Marshawn's mind. He only talks to like 5 people within the whole Seahawks organization. Who the hell really knows what he's thinking. I'm not sure even he knows. Anyhow, John Clayton (since everybody loves him) predicts the holdout to end this Friday. I don't think it will be that soon but I think it will soon.

 

And again, if he was fighting tooth and nail for money, what was he doing here just last month at mini camp?

Edited July 28, 2014 by BC

[the Lions fan 19]

Word is skittles is sure hell be hurt this year... wants a more frontloaded contract than it already is. And this is coming from people involved in biopic. Call it a sugar induced vision.

[BC 331]

"Sure he'll be hurt" is something you will never hear anybody say. Who are you?

 

https://twitter.com/Softykjr/status/494922620068843522

 

Edited July 31, 2014 by BC

[Attyla the Hawk 197]

Basically turned out almost exactly as I predicted. Although he didn't have to sit out the entire TC.

 

In the end, Seattle merely moved salary around. They changed performance escalators in 2014 to base salary (1m), and have added/guaranteed his 2015 roster bonus (500k). Contract value is unchanged. The dead money actually drops for Seattle when they are expected to cut him next year (1.5m). Marshawn sees his non base salary guaranteed for 2014/15.

 

As it stands now, I'd probably put us cutting Lynch after this season at about 98% likely. This restructure from the club perspective removes almost all penalty for dropping him in his final year. Before the move, I figured it was very highly likely. But the way this compromise came down I think it makes their intentions very transparent.

 

Seattle caught some NFL office ire by forgiving all potential fines/penalties. The NFL seems to be actively seeking to set precedent for players to expect the fines to be assessed. I never expected Seattle to enforce those penalties. It's just not something that the organization would want associated with how it does business. Odd to see the NFL involve itself in how a team assesses discretionary fines.

[Sacks98 28]

Marshawn Lynch really is out there shows up in a hoody on one of the hottest days in Seattle lol.