Top 10 QBs

[KempBolt 498]

So Luck is bad because if you extrapolate from his worst subset, it's bad?

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

So Luck is bad because if you extrapolate from his worst subset, it's bad?

 

Honestly his numbers are very luke warm across the board, anyway.

 

 

He's average / bad on his best day anytime he is below 30 attempts. According to the numbers... Which is of course only part of the equation.

 

If you took all of the elite QBs in the league... put their stats up without names, Andrew Luck isn't going to get taken until last or 2nd to last. Only person who might compete for that spot is Tom Brady who had a pretty down year.

[KempBolt 498]

 

 

He's average / bad on his best day anytime he is below 30 attempts. According to the numbers... Which is of course only part of the equation.

 

If you took all of the elite QBs in the league... put their stats up without names, Andrew Luck isn't going to get taken until last or 2nd to last. Only person who might compete for that spot is Tom Brady who had a pretty down year.

Again-- so we take away his best numbers and make a judgement call based on what's left? What kind of bullshit is that? You know that I don't think Luck is elite yet, but this is some of the most convoluted analysis I've seen in a long time.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Again-- so we take away his best numbers and make a judgement call based on what's left? What kind of bullshit is that? You know that I don't think Luck is elite yet, but this is some of the most convoluted analysis I've seen in a long time.

 

 

Again--

 

Honestly his numbers are very luke warm across the board, anyway.

 

 

I am not taking away anything... He still doesn't impress me.

 

There were multiple trains of thought in the post in which you are referring. There is a clear break in those different thoughts when I switch from looking at one part of his game compared to the other half in which I refer to him as being bad AFTER establishing that I am looking at everything. Across. The. Board.

[KempBolt 498]

 

 

Again--

 

 

I am not taking away anything... He still doesn't impress me.

 

There were multiple trains of thought in the post in which you are referring. There is a clear break in those different thoughts when I switch from looking at one part of his game compared to the other half in which I refer to him as being bad AFTER establishing that I am looking at everything. Across. The. Board.

Yes, and I'm taking issue with one of those trains of thought. Well, all of them actually.

 

You can't fairly try to be an Alex Smith advocate and then say that Luck is average or worse across the board. Totally contradictory. The one you criticize is so obviously superior to the one you defend.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Andrew Luck's early game compares favourably to such great QB's as Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Thad Lewis, all guys who are psuedo starters. His completion percentage for the entire game also compares nicely to Matt Cassel and Thad Lewis. His YPA, which is one of the most important stats an elite QB needs to have, is in the bottom third of the league, High YPA keeps the team moving down the field, it scores TD's and motivates the defense to play better because the offense is making big plays. Luck needs to do that consistently, not just in the 4th quarter. The only guy with a comparable yards per attempt last year who is still definitely a top ten player was Tom Brady, who gets the benefit of the doubt for many things that went wrong that season.

 

From worst to best, guys who make consistent appearances on the top 10 lists about TGP.

Andrew Luck 6.71

Tom Brady 6.92

Eli Manning 6.93

Matt Ryan 6.94

Cam Newton 7.14

Tony Romo 7.16

Ben Roethlisberger 7.30

Drew Brees 7.94

Philip Rivers 8.23

Russell Wilson 8.25

Peyton Manning 8.31

Aaron Rodgers 8.74

 

Luck needs work before I personally put him on a top ten list. He may not throw an abundance of interceptions, but a drive stalling is worth the same to a defense. I'll crunch the numbers on punts and turnover on downs for teams to see what I get, but my hypothesis is the Colts are about average in that regard.

[Cobresol 18]

It's not that I believe Andrew Luck has some rare ability to elevate his game as the game goes on, specifically when it matters most, but rather that he appears capable of subduing emotion in more tense spots (or forgetting mistakes) and treating every drive as equal.

 

Does he play a role in falling behind which inevitably leads to his 'heroic acts'? Sure, sometimes. But succeeding in only ideal conditions does not make a great quarterback. Elvis Grbac looked pretty good on the 1995 49ers, but it was a different story when he moved on to KC and then Baltimore. Part of the game is finding ways to win, in spite of mistakes and even if it's ugly. There's something to be said for it. Stats are not everything. See John Elway.

 

"Clutch" is not a skill. It's a combination of factors (and outcomes) that happen to play out in a favorable manner.

 

"Clutch" = CLUster luck is a biTCH (or CLUster luck, biTCH!)

 

Brady was a product of 'clutch' the first four years of his career. He rode a wave of cluster luck to a flawless reputation. The last 10 years has been less than perfect. It happens. Such is 'clutch'.

 

I recall Matt Ryan having cluster luck during his first regular season. He hasn't really had so much 'clutch' since.

 

In any event, the question was 'Top 10 QBs', not 'Top 10 statistical QBs'. One is a subjective issue while the other is not.

[Dutch 874]

Kemp basically touched on what I was going to say. I'm seeing cherry picking of stats and a manipulation of those stats by extreme over exaggeration. Trying to claim Luck buries his team because of his 1st 10 attempts. We aren't even talking an entire 1st quarter. We are talking 10 attempts. There is no possible way you can bury a team in 10 attempts unless you throw like 3 interceptions and the opposing team scores off of each interception. Come on now lol. That's such a weak argument.

 

Also, YPA doesn't keep the team moving down the field. It's an indicator of big plays. You can have big plays and still stall out on downs. Neither does it score TDs. It gets yards. YPA isn't in indicator of scoring TDs because you can make big plays and still stall out on downs or just score a FG. Matt Ryan and Tom Brady have a 6.9 YPA as well too. Their YPA has no influence on their ability to move the ball down the field. First downs is what keeps the team moving down the field.

 

Nobody is saying that Luck is elite. Being in a top 10 list for QBs does not warrant that you are elite. There aren't even 10 QBs in the league that are elite. The QB position isn't like every other position that suggest players in the top 10 are elite. There are only 6 elite QBs in the league imo. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, and Rivers. The rest are very talented QBs that have the ability to really hurt you and you have to game plan to stop. But please, stop trying to cherry pick particular stats and exaggerate it to immense degree to discredit Luck. The QB position is so much bigger than those nitpick stats. They surely aren't stopping the kid from winning games and having a huge impact on his football team and in the league.

Edited July 11, 2014 by Dutch

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Yes, and I'm taking issue with one of those trains of thought. Well, all of them actually.

 

You can't fairly try to be an Alex Smith advocate and then say that Luck is average or worse across the board. Totally contradictory. The one you criticize is so obviously superior to the one you defend.

If that's what you are doing than you are mixing two separate thoughts of mine and use it against me, which is really poor form.

 

Dutch said it was disproven that he struggles at the beginning of games... He also said I talk in vague sentences and don't expand on my thoughts. Dutch is a liar. I proved him wrong... That's why we were only looking at the beginning of games and I use the extrapolation as merely an example of him not being a QB in those certain situations.

 

I then further, expanded my thoughts and said overall, he really isn't that good of a QB anyway. Including everything, even the good moments.

 

You wnat to mix those two things up.. Saying I hate him as a QB only because I am looking at his stats when he is worst -- which is also a lie or a mistake on your part. You are confusing and combining two completely separate thoughts.

 

Also, I wasn't advocating for Smith necessarily. I don't agree he is a Top 10 QB.. He wasn't on my list. Everybody ganged up on Brady though like he was some idiot, and I really didn't appreciate that. I was merely trying to expand on his perspective a little (hopefully) and show that it was completely ridiculous.

 

[RazorStar 4,025]

It's not cherry picking if the majority of stats put Luck outside the top ten. The major thing Luck has going in his favour is a lack of turnovers. A very good thing to have in your favour, but that's cherry picking. That's the kind of thing like JD was saying was listed as Alex Smith's major attribute. Why is fine for Luck, but not for Alex Smith?

 

If I have to make a chart showing the correlation of YPA to first downs I will. >_> You need yards to make downs, you need new sets of downs to drive down the field.A higher YPA means you drive further down the field. Every time.

[Dutch 874]

Dutch said it was disproven that he struggles at the beginning of games... He also said I talk in vague sentences and don't expand on my thoughts. Dutch is a liar. I proved him wrong... That's why we were only looking at the beginning of games and I use the extrapolation as merely an example of him not being a QB in those certain situations.

 

The first 10 attempts does not warrant you being horrible in the beginning of the game. Not enough to impact the game in a way that's detrimental to the team like you claim Luck to be. That may be 1-2 drives in the ENTIRE first quarter lol. You picked a very weak stance for your argument. You picked a stat that can not warrant a QB to "bury" his team with such a small sample size. Again, I'll reiterate that there is no possible way to "bury" your team in just 10 attempts unless you throw like 3 picks in that game and the opposing team capitalizes on them all and scores points. It's not possible F4E. It's just not. You were much better off using the 1st quarter for your argument

Edited July 11, 2014 by Dutch

[Dutch 874]

It's not cherry picking if the majority of stats put Luck outside the top ten. The major thing Luck has going in his favour is a lack of turnovers. A very good thing to have in your favour, but that's cherry picking. That's the kind of thing like JD was saying was listed as Alex Smith's major attribute. Why is fine for Luck, but not for Alex Smith?

 

If I have to make a chart showing the correlation of YPA to first downs I will. >_> You need yards to make downs, you need new sets of downs to drive down the field.A higher YPA means you drive further down the field. Every time.

 

I'm not cherry picking anything lol. I didn't say anything about his lack of turnovers or praise him for it. I never said it was fine for Luck and not fine for Alex Smith. You just created that out of thin air lol. However, I did say that Alex Smith allows Jamaal Charles to do all his work for him and that he is a check it down master. He's very limited in his throwing capabilities which the eye test and stats attest to that and has to have a system created around him to make him effective. Furthermore, what Luck does have in his favor is the ability to win games when it matters and I did praise him for that.

 

Also, there are 3 QB's that are top 10 in first downs that have a 6.7 - 6.9 in YPA and two of them are tied for 4th. You can have a low YPA and convert a lot first downs. It's called the eating up the field. They are usually methodical 9+ play drives eating up the field slowly piece by piece. Having a 6.7 YPA can easily warrant a lot of first downs. You only need 10 yards for a 1st down.

Edited July 11, 2014 by Dutch

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

I used them ALL for my argument. Lol. What the flip, Dutch. Stop cherry picking things out of my posts trying to make it look like you are right. I should have stuck with 1st qtr stats? I used them ALL!!! You wanted me to expand on the argument, I did.. And now you have nowhere to go but try to beat me down, kick me, and attempt to make me look bad.

I gave you how bad he was based on number of attempts, per quarter, and by half... Those were ALL part of my argument. Just as you asked.

Just stop... Stop. Suck For Luck? More like... Suck With Luck.

[Dutch 874]

I used them ALL for my argument. Lol. What the flip, Dutch. Stop cherry picking things out of my posts trying to make it look like you are right. I should have stuck with 1st qtr stats? I used them ALL!!! You wanted me to expand on the argument, I did.. And now you have nowhere to go but try to beat me down, kick me, and attempt to make me look bad.

 

I gave you how bad he was based on number of attempts, per quarter, and by half... Those were ALL part of my argument. Just as you asked.

 

Just stop... Stop. Suck For Luck? More like... Suck With Luck.

 

 

 

 

 

Those numbers still don't fit the mold/label of "burying" his team which is the entire catalyst of this discussion. That's still a huge exaggeration on your part in either regard.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

So I am right... You are wrong.. I just used too strong of language? Okay, I'll take it. That's finally over.

So..... What about that Alex Smith? Damn 'good' QB, wouldn't you say? Or how about Tony Romo, what do you guys think about him and the train of thought of keeping him off lists because of his choke moments?

[KempBolt 498]

If that's what you are doing than you are mixing two separate thoughts of mine and use it against me, which is really poor form.

 

Dutch said it was disproven that he struggles at the beginning of games... He also said I talk in vague sentences and don't expand on my thoughts. Dutch is a liar. I proved him wrong... That's why we were only looking at the beginning of games and I use the extrapolation as merely an example of him not being a QB in those certain situations.

 

I then further, expanded my thoughts and said overall, he really isn't that good of a QB anyway. Including everything, even the good moments.

 

You wnat to mix those two things up.. Saying I hate him as a QB only because I am looking at his stats when he is worst -- which is also a lie or a mistake on your part. You are confusing and combining two completely separate thoughts.

 

Also, I wasn't advocating for Smith necessarily. I don't agree he is a Top 10 QB.. He wasn't on my list. Everybody ganged up on Brady though like he was some idiot, and I really didn't appreciate that. I was merely trying to expand on his perspective a little (hopefully) and show that it was completely ridiculous.

 

I understand your points. I'm not manipulating them. I'm just pointing out the inherent contradiction of criticizing Luck and defending Smith. If they're as similar as you've tried to prove (they're not), then either they both suck or they're both good or somewhere in between. Your defense of Smith and criticism of Luck may be two different thoughts, but you're the one that mixed them when you decided to compare the two.

 

Pointing that out doesn't make me a liar or mistake prone.

[Dutch 874]

So I am right... You are wrong.. I just used too strong of language? Okay, I'll take it. That's finally over.

 

So..... What about that Alex Smith? Damn 'good' QB, wouldn't you say? Or how about Tony Romo, what do you guys think about him and the train of thought of keeping him off lists because of his choke moments?

 

 

I really don't need to have a long drawn out elaborate response to point out the obvious that those stats does not equate to "burying" a team; being the reason why they are behind. You could have put up a good argument if he had more interceptions than TDs or something. The numbers aren't elite or necessarily great by any means, but they aren't burdensome like you claim; an exaggeration.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

I understand your points. I'm not manipulating them. I'm just pointing out the inherent contradiction of criticizing Luck and defending Smith. If they're as similar as you've tried to prove (they're not), then either they both suck or they're both good or somewhere in between. Your defense of Smith and criticism of Luck may be two different thoughts, but you're the one that mixed them when you decided to compare the two.

 

Pointing that out doesn't make me a liar or mistake prone.

Alex Smith and Andrew Luck are in about the same spot for me... Both are out of the top 10 so where EXACTLY they would fall, I am not entirely sure. It looks like I am 'defending' Alex Smith because he isn't a big name and all of you guys hate him just because he is Alex Smith. It looks like I am 'criticizing' Luck because you guys have him on a pedestal in which he doesn't belong.

 

I am merely restoring the balance.....

[Cherry 1,302]

Smith is a better QB if you are in the market for a steady and predictable game manager. Luck is better if you want to hit or miss and potentially win a SB with a crap team. it's all about your team and situation.

[Dutch 874]

Just because we point out the obvious does not mean we hate Alex Smith. He's incapable of throwing the ball down the field and outside the numbers and Jamaal Charles was nearly 50% of Alex Smiths production (check down master) Charles was 40% of his offenses total production. That's not hating. That's observation and fact.

Edited July 11, 2014 by Dutch

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Just because we point out the obvious does not mean we hate Alex Smith. He's incapable of throwing the ball down the field and outside the numbers and Jamaal Charles was nearly 50% of Alex Smiths production and 40% of his offenses total production. That's not hating. That's observation and fact.

He definitely has his faults.. No denying that. You aren't getting an argument out of me... And honestly if JC is only 50% of Smith's production, that's probably a win for him considering he is in control of one of the leagues worst all around offenses.

[Dutch 874]

He definitely has his faults.. No denying that. You aren't getting an argument out of me... And honestly if JC is only 50% of Smith's production, that's probably a win for him considering he is in control of one of the leagues worst all around offenses.

 

I wouldn't say faults. I would say limitations. That's not a win for Smith. That's a win for Jamaal Charles for being awesome.

[KempBolt 498]

Alex Smith and Andrew Luck are in about the same spot for me... Both are out of the top 10 so where EXACTLY they would fall, I am not entirely sure. It looks like I am 'defending' Alex Smith because he isn't a big name and all of you guys hate him just because he is Alex Smith. It looks like I am 'criticizing' Luck because you guys have him on a pedestal in which he doesn't belong.

 

I am merely restoring the balance.....

Overreacting the opposite direction makes you equally wrong, not some arbiter of football forum justice. And for the record I've already said Luck doesn't deserve a top 10 ranking. But I do know he's a lot better than Smith. Because I have eyes.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

 

I wouldn't say faults. I would say limitations. That's not a win for Smith. That's a win for Jamaal Charles for being awesome.

I was being facetious, but sure. Whatever you want to call it.

 

Even as bad as you think Smith is or what his limitations may be, his production equals that of the messiah... And Smith has the 30th best cast of weapons INCLUDING th ebest RB in the league. Luck is going to be in the Top 15 as far as casts go....

 

You can read more here:

http://www.thegridironpalace.com/forums/index.php?/topic/70125-razor-ranks-the-receiving-corps-2014-fun-times-edition/

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Andrew Luck is near the bottom of the league in terms of passing 1st down %, completion %, YPA. Contrary to popular beliefs, a QB can hurt his team's chances to win games more ways then just with turnovers.

 

Interestingly enough, you won't find anyone in the top 15 in terms of passing 1st down % (who are starters) who have bellow a 7.0 YPA outside of Tom Brady. Shocker.

 

58% of Luck's attempts came in the first half of games last year. In the first half his stats are as following, 58.7 completion % (bad), 6.43 YPA (bad), 82.8 passer rating (below average at best).

 

So, it should be no surprise to anybody that, in the second half of games, coincidentally, that's also when the Colts run the ball the most (57% compared 43% in the 1st half). But, I'm sure Luck's improvements in the second half have a whole lot more to do with him being a "gamer", a "winner", "clutch", etc, then it does the Colts relying a whole lot less on him, and more on the run game. I am also sure that the defense playing better in the second half of games statistically speaking is also irrelevant.

 

That was last year. I would split his numbers from the year prior, but, his numbers split into two halves shows a guy actually getting worse in the second half despite less attempts (granted by much).

 

Finally, I went back to the thread where Dutch apparently "disproved" the claims people made that most of what Luck did at the end of games was just him cleaning up his own mess.

 

Interestingly enough, he doesn't mention the fact that Andrew Luck had an absolutely terrible completion percentage outside of three games.

 

He also decides to write off any turnover where the apposing team doesn't score as irrelevant, and should not be held against Luck, because, apparently, the fact that the offense is giving up a possession where they could of scored to the other team is only bad if the other team scores.

 

Never mind that, if the points the Colts had scored in the 4th quarter with no time left on the clock, facing prevent defenses were scored in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd quarter (like the great QBs do), they wouldn't be down to begin with.

 

Like I said, it's just excuses to excuse mediocrity. We all get that the guy has great potential, But it's laughable to pretend as if he plays no big part on the Colts being down to begin with most of the time he "wills his team to victory" against "all odds", etc.