Patriots @ Colts

[BC 331]

(7-2) :Patriots: @ (6-3)

 

 

There should be no second-guessing: The Indianapolis Colts' matchup with the New England Patriots on Sunday night will be Naptown's biggest game of the season.

Not only does the game have massive implications on playoff positioning, but it could also be a game that makes or breaks an MVP run by either Andrew Luck or Tom Brady. The game is on Sunday Night Football, features two of the league's top teams and each team is coming off of a bye week.

For a regular-season game, it doesn't get much bigger.

With so much on the line, what are the keys for the Colts to pull out what would be somewhat of an upset win in Week 11?

Offense: Stick With the Plan

Sometimes, the Colts have tried to get too cute when going up against high-quality opponents. Instead of game-planning for obvious strengths and weaknesses, the Colts have occasionally done the exact opposite of what most would expect them to do in an attempt to gain an early advantage in games.

Take the Colts' loss to Philadelphia earlier this season, for example. Instead of attacking a weak secondary, the Colts ran the ball directly at the Eagles. While the strategy worked at first, the Colts were too slow to revert back to the passing game and attack the Eagles vertically. As a result, the passing game never quite got in rhythm and the team allowed the Eagles to come back and earn a victory.

The team has learned since then, however, and has become the league's most pass-heavy team, per Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus. It makes sense, after all, with Andrew Luck at quarterback and a veritable smorgasbord of targets.

When the Patriots come to town on Sunday night, the Colts must stick to what works: an explosive passing offense. That is what has gotten them to this point, and that's what will get them to a deep playoff run if that happens to be in their future.

Yes, the Colts need to have used the bye week wisely, having some kind of wrinkles early in the game to throw New England off. The running game might be that wrinkle, considering the Patriots' 26th-ranked rush defense, per Football Outsiders' DVOA. That could help slow the New England pass rush early and allow the Colts to set the pace of the game if they can succeed.

But in the end, the Colts must be able to move the ball through the air against their rivals in order to take the victory. There's a fine line between utilizing wrinkles in the game plan and going away from your strengths as an offense. Against the Eagles, the Colts were unable to find that line. Against a Patriots team that is just as good, if not better, they will need to be better.

Offense: Start Fast

In some of the Colts' great upset wins over the last three years, they have overcome slow starts with ulcer-inducing comebacks. The Green Bay Packers win in 2012, for example, or the win over the eventual Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks last season.

Since Tom Brady became quarterback in 2001, the Patriots have allowed just 11 fourth-quarter comebacks, per Pro Football Reference. It's safe to say that giving Brady and Bill Belichick a head start isn't exactly a favorable situation.

The Colts let the Patriots get out to a 14-0 lead before the first quarter was halfway over in last year's playoff matchup and were forced to try to play catch up all game.

It didn't work out.

The Patriots are going to score points. If the Colts get behind early, it will allow New England to mix up their play-calling even more and wear the Colts defense down. The offense has to avoid early turnovers and put points on the board to keep the pressure on the Patriots to keep up, rather than the other way around.

Match-ups this good with the underdog at home make picking a winner brutal. The Colts are the more exciting team to pick but New England feels like a safer pick. The Colts defense is good yes, but not at all Gronk-proof. TY Hilton was the league leader in receiving yards just 3 weeks ago and is still in the top 5. Ahmad Bradshaw is quietly a solid RB this year.

I shall go with the seasoned crew in this one.

:Patriots: 33

26

Edited November 14, 2014 by BC

[RazorStar 4,025]

I like the Colts defense to get into Brady's head. Mostly because I'm hoping they do. Otherwise, he's gonna be impossible to stop again this year.

 

34

:patriots: 28

[Sparty 110]

Colts in a home game off the bye.

[Piggly Wiggly 960]

BC not predicting a blowout loss for Pats...

 

30

:Patriots: 27

[BradyFan81 404]

Who are the 1 and 2 seeds if the Colts win tonight? Denver, NE and Indy would all be 7-3.

[RazorStar 4,025]

I think Denver would be the Top Seed on Conference record, then the Colts, then the Pats.

[Vin+ 3,121]

 

Colts DL Arthur Jones (ankle) is inactive for Sunday night's Week 11 game against the Patriots.

Jones will miss his second straight game after suffering a setback. He was able to practice on a limited basis and has a chance to return in Week 12.

Also inactive for the Colts are LB Henoc Muamba, LB Victor Butler, OG Lance Louis, C/G Khaled Holmes, OT Xavier Nixon, and DT Kelcy Quarles.

 

 

 

Patriots RB James White is inactive for Week 11.

White is a healthy scratch, leaving Brandon Bolden to backup Shane Vereen and Jonas Gray.

The rest of the Patriots inactives are WR Aaron Dobson, DE Chandler Jones, S Don Jones, CB Alfonzo Dennard, OL Jordan Devey, and DL Casey Walker.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

GRONK SMASH

 

:Patriots: 38

35

[BradyFan81 404]

We're running the football and stopping the run. The Ditka strategy

 

I can't believe how easy it is. We're getting like 8 yards a piece on each run. The Colts D is so soft. It's honestly boys against men.

Edited November 17, 2014 by BradyFan81

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

GRONK SMASH

 

:Patriots: 38

35

 

 

Close enough.

 

Edited November 17, 2014 by CampinWithGoatSampson

[Piggly Wiggly 960]

Jonas Gray running for 200 yards, 4 TDs and Gronk still being Gronk (an untamed animal) and almost breaking Sergio Brown's neck...

 

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Pats are gonna kill us... lmao