NFCCG: Packers @ Seahawks

[BLUE 1,026]

By JEFF MEZYDLO

STATS Senior Writer

(AP) -- The Seattle Seahawks opened the season with a home rout of Green Bay.

 

A little more than four months later, it's the visiting Packers who stand in the way of the Seahawks becoming the first team in 10 seasons to reach the Super Bowl in back-to-back years.

 

Riding an eight-game home playoff winning streak, the Seahawks go up against an ailing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Sunday's NFC championship game.

 

With the "12th Man" in full force and its first Super Bowl winning banner hanging from the top of CenturyLink Field, Seattle rolled to a 36-16 win over Green Bay on Sept. 4. That highly anticipated showdown proved to be one-sided, but also an appetizer for perhaps a more competitive rematch with higher stakes.

 

"It's going to be one of those for the ages," Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson said. "You look forward to that."

 

Looking to become the first team since New England from the 2003 and '04 seasons to reach consecutive Super Bowls, the Seahawks (13-4) enjoyed another impressive playoff performance in Saturday's 31-17 divisional-round win over Carolina. A winner in seven straight and 10 of 11, Seattle has reason to feel cautiously optimistic about the next step.

 

"It's exciting but the job is not done. There is still a lot more to do," said Wilson, who improved to 5-1 in the postseason after throwing for 268 yards and three touchdowns.

 

The Seahawks won't get too far ahead of themselves considering the Packers have won 12 of 14 to reach their first NFC title game since winning the Super Bowl during the 2010 season. They also have Rodgers, who playing with an injured calf still appears to be better than most healthy NFL quarterbacks.

 

Rodgers, whose 105.3 career playoff passer rating is second only to Wilson's 109.6, admirably played through the discomfort last Sunday to throw for 316 yards and three TDs in a 26-21 win over Dallas.

 

Aided by a bevy of receiving options, a stronger runner in Eddie Lacy and a stout defense that's allowed more than 21 points once in nine games, the Packers are a more complete and confident team than the one that visited Seattle in September.

 

"This team from Week 1 has grown a lot, so we're definitely looking forward to it," said tight end Andrew Quarless, who had four catches for 31 yards and a TD versus Dallas.

 

Though the Packers (13-4) have improved, Sunday's task is still quite daunting.

 

Prior to facing Carolina, the Seahawks, winners of 25 of 27 at home, owned a 134-39 scoring advantage over the final six regular season games. They outscored those opponents 45-0 in the fourth quarter and added 17 more points Saturday before Carolina's Kelvin Benjamin caught a 15-yard TD pass with 2:34 left to play.

 

The 362 yards the Panthers totaled marked the first time in eight games Seattle yielded more than 298.

 

"Guys are playing selfless. There aren't any egos, there aren't any agendas, and guys just want to do whatever it takes to win," said brash Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman, whom the Packers didn't throw toward in the opener.

 

In the September meeting, Rodgers was 23 of 33 for 189 yards with a TD, an INT and was sacked three times, including one that resulted in a fumble and a safety for the Seahawks. Green Bay's 255 total yards were its second-lowest of the season and the same for Rodgers' 81.5 passer rating.

 

Jordy Nelson caught nine passes for 83 yards, but hardly drew Sherman in coverage.

 

The Packers said they won't necessarily avoid Sherman this weekend.

 

"I don't think anybody's intimidated. I mean he's a great player," Quarless said. "Their secondary is definitely a great secondary. You've got to give them their respect. But you know the whole 'Legion of Boom' - we'll see."

 

Quarless can think that because Rodgers has grown confident with receivers other than Nelson and Randall Cobb, who combined for 189 receptions, 2,806 yards and 25 TDs during the regular season. Rookie receiver Davante Adams caught 38 passes during the season and seven for 117 yards and a TD against Dallas. Fellow first-year tight end Richard Rodgers caught a 13-yard pass for the go-ahead fourth-quarter score Sunday thanks in part to an overturned call of a Dez Bryant fourth-down reception on the next series.

 

"I don't think it's that much different except their guys are coming through," Seattle coach Pete Carroll said. "They've grown with their season and they're at the top of their game."

 

Lacy was held to a season-low 34 yards against the Seahawks, but went on to gain 1,139, and 101 on 19 attempts versus Dallas.

 

Seattle allowed 132 rushing yards to the Panthers, but hasn't yielded a 100 to a single rusher since Jamaal Charles' 159 in a 24-20 loss at Kansas City on Nov. 16, its last defeat.

 

Wilson has thrown 12 TDs with two INTs in eight games, including last week, while completing 64.2 percent of his passes and a 107.2 rating. Five of his 15 completions against the Panthers went for more than 25 yards and 199 came on third down where he went 8 of 8.

 

Wilson's 73.9 postseason completion percentage on third down is the best in the NFL since 1991, when STATS began recording the data.

 

"Sometimes I think I'm made for these situations," said Wilson, who was 19 of 28 for 191 yards with two TDs against the Packers in September. "I just try to be prepared for us. When you're prepared, you're never scared."

 

With three catches for a career-high 129 yards and a TD last week, teammate Jermaine Kearse has nine receptions for 238 and three touchdowns in his last three playoff contests.

 

Marshawn Lynch was held to 59 yards on 14 carries by Carolina, but ran for 110 and two TDs against the Packers in the opener.

 

Green Bay allowed an average of 86.4 rushing yards and 3.6 per carry over the final eight regular season games but yielded 123 and a TD on 25 attempts to NFL rushing leader DeMarco Murray last Sunday.

 

"It's going to be a good matchup and we're excited about it," Packers offensive lineman T.J. Lang said. "It's going to be a tough one, we understand that, but we'll be ready for the challenge."

 

Source: Hosted.Stats.com

[RazorStar 4,025]

I'm actually pretty hyped about this game. It's the classic offense vs. defense story you've all heard before, so watch Russell Wilson throw for 300, run for 100, and score 3 TDs like it's not even difficult. I wonder if Sherm is gonna talk shit about Jordy Nelson after the game?

 

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[Vin+ 3,121]

You know what to do, Packers.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

I'm actually pretty hyped about this game. It's the classic offense vs. defense story you've all heard before, so watch Russell Wilson throw for 300, run for 100, and score 3 TDs like it's not even difficult. I wonder if Sherm is gonna talk shit about Jordy Nelson after the game?

 

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He will be lining up against Jarrett Boykin anyway

 

It is going to suck, because Aaron's deep ball stuff just isn't there right now. So the gameplan is either going to be do a bunch of stuff that won't work (or maybe Aaron is a wizard?) or... Do somethign similar to what we did in Game 1 and what Denver did in the Super Bowl -- and that doesn't sound very smart to me.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Favre4Ever

[Packers Dynasty 2010 116]

With how much shit was talked about the Packers avoiding Sherman in week 1, it would be amazing to see Rodgers take a deep shot to Nelson against Sherman on the first play. Other than that, I expect a heavy dose of Lacy and middle of the field shots to Cobb and Adams. In week 1, there were a lot of missed opportunities, 3 dropped INTS if I remember correctly, that the defense needs to capitalize on in order to pull off the upset. Did pretty well stopping Murray outside of 2 runs, so I expect the defense to limit Lynch and force Wilson to beat us.

 

Being a homer and going with the upset:

 

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Edited January 15, 2015 by Packers Dynasty 2010

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

See, I don't really care too much about the "avoiding Sherman" stuff... You have to throw at the guys who are open. If Sherman is as good as we know him to be, his guy won't be open very often. If avoiding him means throwing to more open players, avoid him all game, ha. I will be interested to see how we line up though. Sherman obviously only stays on one side of the field, and we tend to move guys around quite a bit. Will Mike and Co. conveniently have Jordy over on the left side more often like they did in Week 1 or do they keep him on the right side to battle Sherman?

[Packers Dynasty 2010 116]

See, I don't really care too much about the "avoiding Sherman" stuff... You have to throw at the guys who are open. If Sherman is as good as we know him to be, his guy won't be open very often. If avoiding him means throwing to more open players, avoid him all game, ha. I will be interested to see how we line up though. Sherman obviously only stays on one side of the field, and we tend to move guys around quite a bit. Will Mike and Co. conveniently have Jordy over on the left side more often like they did in Week 1 or do they keep him on the right side to battle Sherman?

 

Keeping Boykin on him the entire game and not even looking over once was a mistake. We basically shut down a third of the field due to 1 guy. Need to at least look his way this time.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

I concur.... But looking his way and throwing his way are very different things. Ha

[BwareDWare94 723]

Seattle hasn't played against a real opponent in weeks and weeks. Green Bay will win this game.

 

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[Attyla the Hawk 197]

I expect Seattle to really thump Green Bay. In terms of matchups, Green Bay is the exact kind of team Seattle is built to succeed against.

 

Seattle wants to bully opponents. And they will set a physical standard early. In my mind, it'll depend entirely on how Green Bay approaches this game.

 

Green Bay can win, if they commit to Lacy and run him consistently and don't just stop giving it to him even if he gets stopped periodically. If Green Bay start calling two passes for each run, we're going to destroy them. They will play right into what we want opponents to do. Green Bay will get more yards. But we'll get off the field more.

 

This team is all about the 4th quarter. I can't count the number of games where the teams go into the fourth quarter within a score of another. Seattle owns the fourth quarter and that's because of the physical domination they commit on their opponents. The only opponents to really threaten Seattle are the ones that ante up and respond to our physicality in kind.

 

From the outside, it always seems like Seattle barely beats teams. But the reality is, that's exactly how we win. Keep it close, wear them down and at the finish, we suffocate them. It's a formula that works and it's regular like the tides. Seattle 'pays' for their fourth quarter domination by paying the price physically in the first three quarters via their commitment to the run.

 

Seattle is one of the best in the business at the Bataan death march that is the 7 minute drill. Seattle, if they have a lead in the 4th quarter simply don't lose it. And our TOP in the 4th is ridiculously one sided. I think it averages more than 9 minutes of possession.

 

Green Bay has the tools to play our game. I think the game hinges on the GB offensive line. If they get nasty and stay nasty -- they can beat us at our own game. But few teams and coaches have that kind of commitment to that game plan.

 

If Rodgers and company want to throw their way to a win, we're going to beat them by more than 10. And honestly, the Rodgers injury might be a good thing for GB if it means they turn to their OL to carry this team.

 

I don't see GB's defense as being the caliber of what we've faced since ... well since Veteran's day. It seems like we've had a steady diet of top 5 and top 12 defenses for months now. It's true we've not faced great offenses. But this defense is built to stop good passing attacks. The track record of good passing attacks scoring about 60% of their average against us is very very consistent. And if we're talking about 60% of GB's road scoring average -- that's probably around 16 points.

 

I can see the game being 17-10 or even 14-14 going into the 4th quarter. Then Seattle pulls away with a couple TDs on brutal 'keep away' drives to seal the deal.

 

The maxim of 'always take the better defense at home' holds here:

 

: 31

: 17

Edited January 15, 2015 by Attyla the Hawk

[Thanatos 2,847]

Seattle hasn't played against a real opponent in weeks and weeks. Green Bay will win this game.

 

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Lol okay.

 

Seattle is going to dominate this game. The only way the Pack have a chance is if A-Rod pulls magic out of his hat one more time.

 

The Panthers had more of a shot. Green Bay is simply not built to beat Seattle.

Edited January 15, 2015 by Thanatos19

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Being the underdogs is awesome... We can either win and pull off a massive upset, or lose and pull the " Hey, we tried " card. Low expectations, ftw.

[Packers Dynasty 2010 116]

 

I don't see GB's defense as being the caliber of what we've faced since ... well since Veteran's day. It seems like we've had a steady diet of top 5 and top 12 defenses for months now. It's true we've not faced great offenses. But this defense is built to stop good passing attacks. The track record of good passing attacks scoring about 60% of their average against us is very very consistent. And if we're talking about 60% of GB's road scoring average -- that's probably around 16 points.

 

I can see the game being 17-10 or even 14-14 going into the 4th quarter. Then Seattle pulls away with a couple TDs on brutal 'keep away' drives to seal the deal.

 

The maxim of 'always take the better defense at home' holds here:

 

: 31

: 17

 

Our defense has really turned it around and I think they have a chance of limiting the Seahawks offense. Our secondary can easily matchup in single coverage against the WRs. While our front 7 did a good job of limiting Murray against one of the best O-lines. The key is containing Wilson and limiting those ridiculous plays he can make.

[Piggly Wiggly 960]

 

Lol okay.

 

Seattle is going to dominate this game. The only way the Pack have a chance is if A-Rod pulls magic out of his hat one more time.

 

The Panthers had more of a shot. Green Bay is simply not built to beat Seattle.

 

[Thanatos 2,847]

Of beating Seattle, yes. We can keep the game close with defense and we can shut down Lynch. Have a few things swing your way in the 4th and there ya go.

 

The Packers... I really do not see it. I really hope they do, don't get me wrong, I'd vastly prefer the Packers make it in over the 'Hawks. Buuut...have you seen what Kaep did to GB the past three years running? Does anyone think Dom Capers actually has a scheme to stop a mobile QB this time around? Wilson will destroy GB with his legs.

 

Defense for GB cannot miss opportunities to get a turnover, because they will be few and that can change the game entirely if they can pick up a few.

[BwareDWare94 723]

Of beating Seattle, yes. We can keep the game close with defense and we can shut down Lynch. Have a few things swing your way in the 4th and there ya go.

 

The Packers... I really do not see it. I really hope they do, don't get me wrong, I'd vastly prefer the Packers make it in over the 'Hawks. Buuut...have you seen what Kaep did to GB the past three years running? Does anyone think Dom Capers actually has a scheme to stop a mobile QB this time around? Wilson will destroy GB with his legs.

 

Defense for GB cannot miss opportunities to get a turnover, because they will be few and that can change the game entirely if they can pick up a few.

 

You are overestimating Seattle's offense. Even if the defense balls, the offense has to all of a sudden show up in order for Seattle to win.

[BC 331]

Agree with everyone so far. Except for BWare. We may trounce teams but that does not make them bad teams. I do agree that if Green Bay wins it is a big upset, so that's the one thing we have working against us. Pete Carroll stated yesterday that both Max Unger and Byron Maxwell are "on track" to start in his presser.

 

If Seattle pulls off this win, Russell Wilson's undefeated streak against Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees including playoff games will stretch to 7-0. Or you can credit that to the legion of boom or whoever you want. Gotta love that in a league dominated by elite QBs.

 

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[BC 331]

 

You are overestimating Seattle's offense. Even if the defense balls, the offense has to all of a sudden show up in order for Seattle to win.

 

Where were you week 1? And you think leading the league in explosive plays this year, leading the league in rushing, and having a every starter on offense is going to equate to struggling against a ho hum Green Bay defense at home? Okay buddy.

 

The one thing Green Bay has done better than Seattle this year is turnover margin. Green Bay is I believe 1st in that category, and us 3rd.

Edited January 16, 2015 by BC

[Thanatos 2,847]

 

You are overestimating Seattle's offense. Even if the defense balls, the offense has to all of a sudden show up in order for Seattle to win.

 

The idea that Seattle's offense is poor is a complete fabrication. I don't know where you got this misinformation or why you keep spouting it. You did this last year too.

 

Seattle's offense is rather good, more than enough to take control of the game from the Packers D- which is also better than on paper, given the improvements they've made the last stretch of the season.

[ATL_Predator+ 1,196]

Don't see this ending well for GB. A huge part of GB's offense is Eddie Lacy and going up against the Seahawks run D is not going to be pleasant. As soon as Seattle eliminates the run game for GB, things will get ugly quickly.

 

I also don't believe in GB's shoddy defense, they've been playing better. But QB's like Wilson in the playoffs tend to destroy the whole Dom Caper's philosophy for defense.

 

Seattle wins big because the Seattle Seahawks are hitting all cylinders defensively, and offensively this is the week for them to come together against a questionable defense.

 

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[BwareDWare94 723]

You guys are all overrating Seattle and all underrating Green Bay. I know it looks like Green Bay's defense is poor but it's definitely good enough when Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback.

 

The Seahawks' last 12 opponents:

St. Louis, Carolina, Oakland, NYG, KC, Arizona, SF, Philadelphia, SF, Arizona, St. Louis, Carolina.

 

1 impressive win (Philadelphia). 1. Seattle has not played a playoff team in over 3 months (Carolina does not count).

 

The Packers' last 12 opponents:

Dolphins, Panthers, Saints, Bears, Eagles, Vikings, Patriots, Falcons, Bills, Bucs, Lions, Cowboys

 

At least 3 impressive wins in NE, Detroit, Dallas.

 

The Packers are battle tested and ready. The Seahawks have been playing JV teams for 3 months, and that includes losses to fucking St. Louis, KC, and Carolina.

 

You can say that they're hot but they have not played a team even close to Green Bay since the beginning of October.

 

Don't be surprised when Green Bay wins.

Edited January 16, 2015 by BwareDWare94

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

All the common sense in this thread is coming from Bware, you guys need to step up your game.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Sorry, i forgot the part where Aaron Rodgers has the ball bounce off Randall Cobb's hands and straight to Earl Thomas.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Most definitely bound to happen.

Packers aren't all that focused on the Seahawks anyway. We have another game in mind.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-packers-of-catan-green-bays-board-game-obsession-1421346102

[Attyla the Hawk 197]

Here would be my underrated elements to this matchup:

 

1. Packers O line. This line is performing very well. Both in pass pro and in the run game. They can make it hard on Seattle if they game plan to run the ball a lot. In my estimation this is the key to a Packers win. Heavy dose of Lacy all game long.

 

2. Packers Mr. Hyde act offensively on the road. Not sure exactly why, but the disparity between win/loss records and offensive effectiveness is just massive. They really aren't the same team on the road -- even in their victories. Offensively they just don't execute well and end up giving away possessions at an alarming rate. If that holds, I'd expect their conversions to be in the 15-30% range. Because GB typically gets decent YAC on missed tackles resulting in 1st downs. Seattle is the best tackling team in the league two years running. And this held true virtually all year and including the week 1 contest.

 

Also, in response to BWare specifically:

 

SOS rankings for 2014:

 

Seattle: 6th toughest.

GB: 13th

 

On the road:

 

Seattle: 3rd

GB: 15th

 

At home:

 

Seattle: 8th

GB: 11th

 

Green Bay's SOS was actually sub .500 on the road. And they managed only a 4-4 result. Seattle can't do anything about the schedule to finish the season. But it's worth noting that Seattle finished the season off against a slew of contending teams at the time we played them. That we ended the postseason hopes of SF and Philadelphia (and division crown aspirations to Arizona) to end the season shouldn't be discounted. Those were all playoff intensity contests. Seattle has been in playoff mode since the KC loss, where we were staring at a 6-4 mark and in danger of not even reaching the postseason.

 

3. Hawks offense. Last year, it ranked 8th in the league. This year 9th. On the outside, it just appears to be a mundane offense -- particularly given how good the defense is. But as someone that watches all the games closely, Seattle really leaves a lot of potential yards and points on the field. Precisely due to their defense. The game plan is pretty consistent. We run the ball a lot and early. We consider a 2 yard run better than a 5 yard pass. Because by the end of the game we're running at 6-8 yards a pop and can finish. Seattle stays true to this formula. It results in better finish quality and frustratingly few mistakes for opponents to take advantage of.

 

The reality is, Wilson has been very good to even brilliant in games where we've had to abandon this formula and have him throw us to a win. It's definitely a method of playing that Wilson can execute with high degree of success.

 

4. Seattle run offense v. GB run defense.

 

Seattle paced the league in explosive runs for the season at 83. That's 25% more than the second place team (coincidentally Green Bay at 67). Seattle allowed only 30 such runs (one behind league leader Denver). Green Bay was 20th in the league at 51. Green Bay struggled mightily at home to corral Dallas' run offense. I'd expect that to be even more an issue on the road -- particularly given that Wilson is the best scrambling QB in the league by a wide margin and that particular style of QB is Green Bay's Achilles heel.

 

I would probably put the over/under on rush yards for Seattle at 185. Seattle could have a shot at having two 100 yard rushers in this game.

 

5. Injured Aaron Rodgers against Seattle's pass rush

 

Not going to lie, Rodgers is an all time great QB. Seattle has done pretty well against MVP QBs (undefeated since Wilson entered the league). Seattle is particularly effective against statuesque/non mobile QBs. This is because Seattle will squeeze receivers at the line with Chancellor often as a bandit/lurk safety. They will do this, while our pass rushers will abandon lane integrity, affording them maximum pressure opportunities. Additionally, Avril and Irvin from the edges can chase down QBs scrambling away from them with the best in the league. It's really going to tax the GB offensive line. Personally -- I think this line can get that done for the most part. But there will be instances where Rodgers is going to have to throw the ball away. And that's hard to accomplish when you are so accustomed to extending plays with movement to complete passes. We've seen it the last two games in Seattle with him.

 

In all, this is a game of matchups. And the one matchup that I think Green Bay should really try to work on is their rushing attack. It's a very good element to their game and it's vastly underdeveloped. They have the back and the linemen to make it work. The other matchups really favor Seattle very heavily. Seattle wants to put the ball in Rodgers hands. Irregardless of his injury. So the fact that we can sell out in our pass rush instead of maintain integrity to keep him from moving makes this even more of a Seahawks advantage.

 

6. Seahawks offensive game plan loses the game

 

I'd be so much more comfortable if Seattle puts up a lead and extends it early. Rodgers is ... well he's Rodgers. And while this defense has done nothing to warrant undue worry -- the reality is Rodgers is capable of just getting hot and being unstoppable. He's just one of those guys that even if you do everything right, you still lose. Last week was a great example of that. Dallas ran the ball great. Scored on explosive pass plays. Basically did everything we do on a week out basis. And yet Rodgers stepped up and demonstrated why he's the MVP. He can win games that the team shouldn't.

 

I hope Wilson has the same performance he had last week. Carolina sold out to stop the run and Wilson had a great day. I don't see Green Bay doing or effecting the same. But I do hope that Wilson makes explosive plays and keeps making them all day. Convert and score. Fewer 3 and 5 play drives.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Attyla the Hawk