CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted October 6, 2015 (edited) If you’re a fan of the Jaguars, Steelers or Eagles, you’re likely cursing your team’s kicker this weekend. But if you’ve suffered at the hands, err legs, of NFL kickers around the league, just know you’re not alone. Through halftime of Sunday’s afternoon games, 13 field goals and 4 extra points have been missed during week 4 alone. It’s an eyebrow raising stat when game winning misses are happening league wide, especially considering PAT’s had a 99-percent success rate in 2014. What’s the reason behind the all these missed kicks? Former longtime NFL kicker Jay Feely offered up some insight on Twitter as to what the reason could be: “Extra Points used to be in-game practice. You didn’t have to worry about the result (it was a given), which allowed you to focus on your form and grooved in during a game. Somewhat of a confidence builder. Like throwing a couple screens early for a QB. Now, the pressure is bigger for [extra points] than even [field goals] because there is zero room for error (100% success is demanded). The pressure intensifies and it negatively impacts [field goal] performance as well.” Over the summer the NFL changed the distance from the line of scrimmage for PAT’s from the two-yard line to the 15; essentially making an extra point a 33-yard field goal. Since the two-point conversion remains at the two-yard line, it was thought more teams would attempt to go for two. Some teams have taken the two-point conversion challenge but the PAT remains the default decision, perhaps to the regret of coaches, players and fans looking in hindsight. But when you couple Feely’s thoughts along with the rate of missed FG’s and PAT’s, perhaps league commissioner Roger Goodell is getting exactly what he wanted by adding extra drama, pressure and thus importance to a position that has been devalued league-wide. Meanwhile us fans will continue to dwell on what could have been So how are you guys liking this so far? Like the added pressure? Should more teams man up and go for 2 then? Should kickers matter this much? Edited October 6, 2015 by CampinWithMyMan Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RazorStar 4,025 Posted October 6, 2015 It's an expected value thing, I wasn't expecting XP percentage to be this bad, but when you no longer have a nearly automatic kick, going for 2 points is just better because you expect a 50% success out of those. So say you scored 10 TDs, if you went for 2 all ten times, you'd score 10 points on average. If you kicked 10 XP's, you'd get 9 points on average. Those little advantages add up over time, and while the NFL season is a small sample size, teams should just go for two points as aggressively as possible. If you want to think of it as a psychological edge, because you are no longer getting 7 points a TD, treat TD's as 6 points and anything after that as what it says on the tin, Extra Points. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oochymp 2,393 Posted October 6, 2015 I think overall two point conversion percentage is closer to 45%, which gives you the same expected value as a 90% PAT I think coaches will adjust and start going for two more often but I think there's a bit of seeing is believing, like Razor said most people didn't expect the PAT % to drop this far, it takes a while to actually change expectations, now that coaches are seeing what the drop in PAT % is I wouldn't be surprised if we see more two point attempts as the year progresses, particularly as weather conditions make the field goals harder Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted October 6, 2015 I just think that's an interesting take that extra points were live rep practice for kicker's forms etc. Now they don't get that anymore and it's thrown them all off, except the truly mentally strong. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oochymp 2,393 Posted October 6, 2015 I just think that's an interesting take that extra points were live rep practice for kicker's forms etc. Now they don't get that anymore and it's thrown them all off, except the truly mentally strong. yeah, I'm not entirely sure I buy that, most high scoring games see at most what, 4-5 TDs per team per game? sometimes a team will get maybe as many as 7 or 8? though when you're scoring 7-8 tds usually the PATs don't really matter, I'm not sure I believe those 4-5 kicks per game can really do that much as live reps to prepare for longer field goals, it's a position where you know you're not going to see much game time action but that precision is huge, if you're doing it right you're doing most of your work during the week Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted October 6, 2015 (edited) I agree but the mind is a tricky thing, that's why some guys disappear in games but shine in practice. Real pressure can't be duplicated. I do think the kickers will adjust in time, but right now their game day routine of chip shot FGs after your team is celebrating a TD has changed and it's messing with guys. Edited October 6, 2015 by CampinWithMyMan Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mentch 42 Posted October 11, 2015 No way. Youre telling me that moving the extra point back from the 2 yard line to the 15 yard line increases the chances of a missed attempt? What a concept, I did Nazi that coming Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted October 12, 2015 It says the moved back XP attempts has also effected their psyche during FGs not just XPs which on surface should have nothing to do with moving the extra point back. Or did you nazi that coming? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites