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BwareDWare94

Goff, Wentz, Lynch

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Where do they go, and who do they go to?

 

Project how the Senior Bowl (only Wentz will play in this game--Goff and Lynch are juniors), Combine, and Pro Day performances separate these three, and project which pick and which team they go to.

 

As for me, I think Wentz surges ahead of Lynch into the #1 QB prospect discussion, but the positioning of teams will leave him as the 3rd QB picked. Wentz has the most upside of the three when you consider his physical abilities as a passer and his excellent mobility for a guy his size. Lynch is an inch taller and 10 pounds heavier, so Wentz has to do well to make his way into the discussion.

 

I think Goff goes to the Browns, Lynch to the 9ers, and Wentz to the Rams, with the off chance that Wentz ends up in Dallas. The Cowboys are enamored with him and get to coach his team in the Senior Bowl.

Edited by BwareDWare94

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I have to ask, have you studied any tape on Lynch or Goff? Lynch is miles ahead of Wentz in terms of upside. He's a project, but he has potential to be a running Joe Flacco with an even more accurate arm.

 

Goff is a mixed bag. He's a very iffy passer and has a lot of issues with mechanics when he has to hit guys on out routes and outside the hashmarks. If I recall correctly he's a little undersized, or at least plays like it. The one thing that stands out about Goff is his pocket awareness. The dude is a master at moving around in the pocket and uses it like a 10-year veteran.

 

Wentz isn't the #3 guy to me. He's a third rounder who'll likely rise as teams begin to jerk it to his senior bowl game (he'll likely dominate an undermanned senior team opponent). They'll love his speed and athleticism, even though he's only just above average. Some media dipshits will even point to his wins in the big one at NDSU. But in the end Wentz is a backup QB with the ability to start a few games here or there. He doesn't have any defining features or qualities of a franchise guy.

 

IMO it goes Lynch #2. Goff #4. Wentz falls out the back to the early 2nd. Cody Kessler sneaks in for the Rams or Eagles.

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I think you haven't seen enough of Wentz. He has two primary issues. 1. His footwork isn't always great, but other than that he had excellent throwing mechanics. 2. His deep ball is questionable, but he's got a great arm and played with really shitty WRs at NDSU. I'm talking barely FCS quality receivers. Nevertheless, these are easily corrected issues for a very coachable player who has great football IQ and 4.0 smarts.

 

Everything else is great. He mostly goes through progressions, has excellent mobility, has a rocket arm, and very rarely turns the ball over. You are nitpicking him if you think any other college QB is miles ahead of him.

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I've watched seven games of Wentz. That's more than enough to make an assessment.

 

I don't mean other college QBs are miles ahead of him currently. Paxton has much more potential and it's hardly debatable. I will repost that Wentz breakdown if you like.

 

You've put on the homer glasses again Bware. Please take them off.

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You've got, "Oh, but he plays in the FCS" glasses on. You're welcome to your opinion, but I think you're wrong. Very rarely does a player with so many of the necessary traits fail.

Edited by BwareDWare94

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You've got, "Oh, but he plays in the FCS" glasses on. You're welcome to your opinion, but I think you're wrong. Very rarely does a player with so many of the necessary traits fail.

I factored in next to nothing when I graded him. I watched his mechanics. I watched his vision. I watched his passing talent. I watched a lot of things. I did not sit and focus for 7 games on how weak his competition was. The level of competition does not make his inaccurate deep ball, average athleticism, and overall lack of NFL talent change.

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I'd also like to point out that I haven't mentioned playing in the FCS once yet.

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Carson Wentz

QB

North Dakota State

 

Games watched: 2014 v. Iowa St, 2014 v. Illinois St, 2014 v. Coastal Carolina, 2014 v. Sam Houston St, 2014 v. South Dakota St, 2015 v. Montana, 2015 v. Weber St

 

Carson Wentz is not Brock Jensen 

 

He has NFL size at around 6'6" 230. He isn't as good of a quarterback as you'd expect for a guy getting so much love in the media. He has a tendency to flick the ball instead of actually throwing it, which causes his accuracy to be inconsistent and at times downright bad.

 

He's a good runner on designed runs and could fit in an offense that allows QB options and draws. He isn't necessarily bad as a pure quarterback though, even if he is inconsistent. He plays in a one-read offense from what I can tell, but when his first option is completely shut down he can make a move and look for more guys on the run. He also has times where he goes through his progressions. This usually seems to be on vertical routes where he can quickly assess the defense instead of jumping around trying to find guys underneath.

 

He has a decent arm, and can hit 60 yard passes, but he has a pretty bad issue with overthrowing when he has guys really deep down the field. He also has a problem with forcing the ball into tight spaces too much without having a strong enough arm to fit in where he wants it. If he steps up in the pocket to deliver it he can sometimes make the passes work.

 

One of my concerns is that he played against mediocre competition in the FCS, but his traits look good enough to where he can play at an NFL level.

 

He has poor pocket awareness and will often times get grabbed from behind and dragged down in the backfield. People can turn the corner on the tackles and he doesn't often recognize when they come around. He also doesn't always step up when making throws, instead simply using his arm to make the throws. It causes his balls to sail and puts them in danger of being picked off.

 

He hits his receivers very well down the seam and can sell play-action well to lead receivers into open spaces. NFL defensive backs may not be fooled as easily, but it works well enough with FCS talent.

 

He has a problem with low-arming passes and underthrowing guys in stride because he doesn't release at the top of his throwing motion. It makes a lot of his passes way tougher to catch than you'd like, though his receivers aren't exactly top tier talent guys. The low-arm passes can often be batted at the line of scrimmage and picked off on the by linebackers.

 

He has some pretty bad turnover issues, especially with fumbles in the pocket. He will often hold the ball too far away from his body and have it swatted away by defenders. When it rains it pours with his turnover issues. He is either turnover-free or he has three fumbles in a quarter. Thankfully he usually stays turnover-free.

 

He runs way too many designed plays for my liking, but he seems decent enough at running pro-style plays that I can give him a pass. He's not a good scrambling quarterback though, even if he is a great runner.

 

He is very physical and durable. It's very rare that you see a QB with his natural power as a runner. He isn't afraid to hit a guy and push through for the first down. He has the drive to win and isn't afraid to put his body on the line to do it.

 

He has some issues corralling the snap at times and can lose control while looking up at the play instead of getting his hands on the ball. This may just be due to a poor center who can't snap the ball properly (I wouldn't be shocked if this is the issue) but it's still somewhat concerning when he drops the snap two or three times in a single game.

 

He's very athletic for his size and position, and actually hurdled an Iowa State defensive lineman who was rising off the ground in front of him. He's able to shed tacklers when he is running down the field and can break out of arm tackles. He's also able to make guys miss in open field and is good at cutbacks.

 

He has issues with throwing behind players on underneath routes. His timing for his receivers is not always as crisp as you'd like. A lot of times his guys have to slow down to catch the ball in open field. That along with his issues overthrowing makes me worry about his prospects as a legitimate starting quarterback. I don't think he can effectively pass 35 or 40 times per game.

 

QB Grade: B

 

NFL Projection: Early 3rd rounder

 

Final outlook: Wentz has a somewhat low ceiling, but could be a solid backup at the NFL level. He has the physical talent to play as a spot-starter or quality backup. He needs to be coached up on his passing so that he can pass somewhat more accurately. He's a good runner on designed plays and is a durable guy who can go win. I think someone will draft him high with the expectation of having a starter, and will be somewhat disappointed. He'll won't be a bad player by any means though.

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You've got, "Oh, but he plays in the FCS" glasses on. You're welcome to your opinion, but I think you're wrong. Very rarely does a player with so many of the necessary traits fail.

Says the guy who's talked about the last five NDSU qbs like they were first rounders
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I completely disagree on "average athleticism."

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As far as preference are concerned, I think Goff is the best QB in this class, and as of right now I would say is one of the top 3 prospects in the class.

 

Then it's Wentz and Lynch. Haven't seen enough of Lynch just yet to come to any conclusion, but right now id say it's Goff, Cook, Wentz,in the first, Lynch in the second.

 

I'm actually still on the fence b.w Cook and Wentz right now, and who I'd say is better.

Edited by DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F

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Says the guy who's talked about the last five NDSU qbs like they were first rounders

 

I was wrong about Brock Jensen, but I never thought he was a first rounder.

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As a CAL fan, I believe Goff is the best QB and one of the better QBs to come out in awhile. I liked Arod but not Boller. He won't be Peyton but I think he's top 10 QB material in the NFL.

 

He has gradually improved throughout his time at Cal. I wonder who takes him.

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I'm getting a young Carson Palmer vibe with a bit more athleticism from Wentz.

 

I'm a little surprised you feel (Chern) that he has a mediocre arm, looks to me like a cannon. I'm just quickly looking at games while doing other stuff, and he gets the ball out with ease. At least imo.

 

As a CAL fan, I believe Goff is the best QB and one of the better QBs to come out in awhile. I liked Arod but not Boller. He won't be Peyton but I think he's top 10 QB material in the NFL.

He has gradually improved throughout his time at Cal. I wonder who takes him.

 

Yea, I got to see him play almost all season not that I'm on the west coast and am paying attention to the Pac 12. Haven't had a hard look yet at him either, but every game I've seen including the one where Oregon blew em out, he looked very good.

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I'm getting a young Carson Palmer vibe with a bit more athleticism from Wentz.

 

I'm a little surprised you feel (Chern) that he has a mediocre arm, looks to me like a cannon. I'm just quickly looking at games while doing other stuff, and he gets the ball out with ease. At least imo.

The main reason I said his arm is mediocre is not the fact he can't sling it 50-60 yards downfield. It's the fact he throws 10-15 yards off target every time he winds up and bombs it. His deep ball is incredibly inconsistent and just in general going to fail at the NFL level.

 

Again my comments on his athleticism is more his strength and brief mobility rather than his overall skill as a runner. For his size he is athletic but as a whole package he is not.

Edited by Chernobyl426

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I'm getting a young Carson Palmer vibe with a bit more athleticism from Wentz.

I like this comparison, although I would argue Palmer was a much more polished passer at that stage in his career.

 

Goff reminds me of Philip Rivers, and Lynch reminds me of Joe Flacco with Kaepernick-esque athleticism.

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See, I like Wentz because his flaws are all very correctable. Deep routes will be easier at the pro level for him because he'll have real receivers. The best WR he had at NDSU (RJ Urzendowski--#16 on film) has no shot at becoming a pro.

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That's understandable. Wentz obviously doesn't have great talent around him. I'd argue he got away with a lot of poor decisions due to FCS competition. He loves throwing dangerous passes into the teeth of the defense. If his decision-making improves to match the NFL level he could be a capable starter.

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I like this comparison, although I would argue Palmer was a much more polished passer at that stage in his career.

Goff reminds me of Philip Rivers, and Lynch reminds me of Joe Flacco with Kaepernick-esque athleticism.

Yea, Wentz lower body mechanics aRe pretty bad, which directly leads to erratic ball placement at times. But that is very much teachable. As of right now he's still a 1st rounder to me.

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See, I like Wentz because his flaws are all very correctable.

I've thought about this a lot for the past few days. I understand the idea behind this, and I understand the idea of a prospect developing out of issues as they move into the NFL. However, I don't think it's easy to define what is "teachable" and what isn't. A lot of that is largely based on how good their "teacher" is. Carson Wentz could be a player who learns from the best and manages to correct all of his issues in his game. He could be a very good pro quarterback with the arm strength he has. I personally don't like the idea of him being a runner (he can't scramble for shit IIRC) but I can see occasional read-options and QB draws. Where he stands right now, without factoring in the potential to correct current issues, is the value of a third rounder. With a good combine and senior bowl this could rise to the second round. He needs touched up A LOT. He needs to improve pocket awareness, mechanics, accuracy, and decision-making. He's a less-developed Paxton Lynch.

 

I've been wrong before about these things. Blake Bortles and Jameis Winston are two examples. Jameis was a mid-first to me because of his 2013 tape, but his 2014 tape was very scary. He made a lot of poor decisions. He decided for way too many jump balls. He played bad football, to be plain. We saw it in the playoffs where he was set alight by the Oregon defense and lost his mental cool. In comparison Marcus Mariota, while not as talented, was much more polished as a pro passer. He didn't make bad mistakes. He could scramble. He had great mechanics. I don't think there is too much of an argument as to who had a better rookie year (Though Jameis did have better weapons).

 

The same thing happened with Bortles vs Bridgewater. There was no doubt who had more potential. Bortles was drawing Roethlisberger comparisons. Bridgewater was a seemingly undersized awkward QB who just played safe and could start day one. Much more than Jameis, Bortles proved concerns true. He was a turnover prone mess in his rookie year. And despite stepping up his offensive production this year he continues to be a turnover machine.

 

It's near impossible to truly project how a player will pan out in the NFL. Projects are the biggest question mark around, and someone could be a huge hit (Bortles) or a gigantic miss (Jamarcus Russell). So if the argument is that Wentz will develop at the next level and become a top 10 QB, I won't fight too much. He definitely has the potential to do that. But if we're looking at him right now and judging him purely on his current talent level? I think it's a much more reasonable estimate of him to be a 3rd round talent who falls in the 2nd round due to QB-hungry teams needing someone to step in.

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hopefully the Texans get none of these bros and draft another DE or CB :troll:

If they don't draft a QB in the first, I'm very likely turning in my fan card.

 

Only way I give them a pass, is if they cannot trade up and the run on QBs precedes their pick. If that's the case, they better draft Zeke Elliott or Derrick Henry.

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If they don't draft a QB in the first, I'm very likely turning in my fan card.

 

Only way I give them a pass, is if they cannot trade up and the run on QBs precedes their pick. If that's the case, they better draft Zeke Elliott or Derrick Henry.

And with the 22nd pick in the 2016 NFL draft... The Houston Texans select...

 

 

Roberto Aguayo. Kicker. Florida State.

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