Wild Speculation Thread

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Jags having all the players fall to them

[ATL_Predator+ 1,196]

Are we really going to see two future mediocre QB's go #1 and #2 in this year's draft as a result of teams trading up?

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

inb4 Titans trade up to 3 for Tunsil

[Cherry 1,302]

> Goff has godly pocket presence and is built to start and do good day one

> FUCK QBS OFFENSE IS FOR PUSSIES

 

 

Kessler is the safest pick of any QB in this draft. Very low ceiling but can start day one. I think you guys are really underestimating the value of a quarterback who can run an offense efficiently and safely. Your arm talent, frame, and potential do not matter if you cannot capitalize on it. If he continues to play smart like he has in college he will be a borderline top 10 QB in the NFL solely on how effective he is as a game manager.

[Cherry 1,302]

If Eagles are moving to #2 I think Goff has to go #1. 90% sure.

[butta54 371]

inb4 Titans trade up to 3 for Tunsil

 

 

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Kessler is the safest pick of any QB in this draft. Very low ceiling but can start day one. I think you guys are really underestimating the value of a quarterback who can run an offense efficiently and safely. Your arm talent, frame, and potential do not matter if you cannot capitalize on it. If he continues to play smart like he has in college he will be a borderline top 10 QB in the NFL solely on how effective he is as a game manager.

 

Holy crap... Of all the players you could hype up...

[Cherry 1,302]

Tell me where I'm wrong on this analysis below.

 

6'1" or so. Undersized for an NFL QB. Stands tall in the pocket though, and flips through reads incredibly quickly (3-4 in 3-4 seconds). Mediocre arm strength, but not bottom-tier. Can hit the deep ball if he has a guy open by a solid margin, but won't impress you. Very safe passer, despite occasional accuracy issues on outside throws that pass 20 yards. Good instincts to step up in the pocket and search for someone open. Can get the first down with his feet if it's short yardage but not a scrambler. Very low ceiling due to physical limitations but very high floor due to smart decision-making and pro readiness.

 

My prospect grading is always based 100% on what I see on the field RIGHT NOW. I don't factor in potential. I don't factor in development. I don't like to judge where a guy may be 3 years down the road because it's a damn mess to try and do that. Cody Kessler is a low-risk option for any team that is content to have a QB go 20-30 for 250 yards and two touchdowns every game. He isn't throwing a 70-yard bomb standing still. He isn't escaping trouble and running for 20 yards. He isn't a project with seemingly endless potential. He is a high-quality game manager who can be inserted day one and run an offense with relative ease at the pro level.

 

It's becoming increasingly tough to find guys who can come out of college and handle an NFL offense from the start of their pro career. For every Derek Carr there are three Bryce Pettys. Will Kessler be the best quarterback of this draft class in the long run (given he gets a fair shot)? I'd give it a 25% or so. Paxton Lynch is way further along than people like to admit and he has immaculate upside. Jared Goff is blessed with tremendous vision as a QB and can play like a savvy vet coming out, even if he has occasional slips with accuracy. Even Carson Wentz has a shot to be better than Kessler given his short to intermediate game and prototype build. But none of these guys have the ability to pick apart a defense without mistakes like Kessler from day one. None of these other guys (Big 3) can currently jump through all four reads he has to make and then deliver a strike to move the chains. None of these other guys can settle for a checkdown rather than force a dart into traffic.

 

I know you're a big fan of looking at the prospects potential. I understand that method and respect it immensely. There are some freak athletes out there who fill out their game to match their potential and become some of the best players in the league. But I value the technical side to a QB a lot more personally.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Keep in mind 20/30 for 250 yards and 2 TDs every game levels out to 320/480, 4000 yards and 32 TDs. Kessler may be a safe prospect but he doesn't have the talent to hang those kind of numbers. He's far more likely to be a 17/30 guy for 200 yards, and 1 TD, with a turnover rate approximately at the league average (11-12 INTs for a 16 game season, probably a bit more likely to fumble given his size, without factoring in variance.). And that's really best case scenario for him. What's far more likely is a team likes him as a potential backup, he can manage an offense in a pinch but will be figured out over a long slate of games, and contained to a captain checkdown role.

 

While I may agree you don't need to be a special physical talent in this league, you better have an amazing football IQ and some serious offensive help to outpace those issues. When you look at guys like Goff and Wentz they have the physical aspect as well either the mental aspect or the reps in a pro style offense, they aren't playing with the handicap Kessler is. The good news is, Wentz and Goff will almost certainly be handicapped by bad teams to start their careers. Kessler has a chance to land a cushy back-up gig somewhere like Pittsburgh, Arizona or San Diego and develop behind an older vet.

 

And I'm sure someone who has actually watched the tape on Kessler can give a more empathetic view to his struggles against the best of the best.

[Cherry 1,302]

I think you're selling him a tad short with a percentage completion of 57% over the course of a year. If I were to estimate actual stats he'd have if he started 16 games I'd say it'd be around 64% completion percentage. 3500 yards. 28 TDs to 8 INTs, or something in that range.

 

Yes that's best case scenario but worst case scenario is around 60% for 2700 yards, 20 TDs and 12 INTs. Still not terrible stats for a guy who is just a game manager who doesn't lose or win games.

 

A guy like Wentz could go 67% for 4250 yards 40 TDs and 10 INTs or he could go for 58% for 2750 yards with 16ish TDs and 20ish INTs.

 

That's why I like Kessler. I think he has an absolutely insane football IQ that will help him stay producing despite the talent jump. He'll need to fall into a great situation, a Denver or Dallas or something of the sort, but if he does he'll easily pan out.

 

Let me be clear when I say that Kessler is not going to be a "franchise QB" like Goff or Wentz could be. He's not physically talented enough to have that title.

 

It's all based on where he is getting drafted. If I'm a team like the Rams or the Browns there is no way in a million years I take Kessler to start. Those teams need legitimate game changing quarterbacks. But if I'm a team like Denver that needs a guy who can hand off 60% of the time and throw a few accurate short passes just to keep the game moving I would pick Kessler in an instant.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Tell me where I'm wrong on this analysis below.

 

6'1" or so. Undersized for an NFL QB. Stands tall in the pocket though, and flips through reads incredibly quickly (3-4 in 3-4 seconds).Mediocre arm strength, but not bottom-tier. Can hit the deep ball if he has a guy open by a solid margin, but won't impress you.

 

You are terribly overrating just how badly having an arm like Kessler completely hinders any chance of him being any good.

 

The can't throw a tight spiral past 10 yards, can't throw a tight spiral to the far hashes, can't throw a decent deep ball. And he has tiny hands, which wouldn't be a big problem if it wasn't for the fact that his arm is weak as is. And it's not necessarily even the fact that overall he can't throw a 80 yard bomb, it's that the velocity on his passes are straight up awful after about, 10 yards between the hashes.

 

1. The teams that can draft him, because playing in colder, or windier climates renders him even less effective.

 

2. The plays you can run and how effective an offense can be.

 

3. Defensive honesty.

 

And this doesn't even take into account the fact that he gets happy feet, and questionable lower body mechanics, wide base, weird feet.

 

 

Very safe passer, despite occasional accuracy issues on outside throws that pass 20 yards. Good instincts to step up in the pocket and search for someone open.

 

 

His entire offense relied entirely on short screens, swings out of the backfield, outlet passes, and short timing routes that simply won't work in the NFL beyond maybe one game.

 

I often hear people talk about how high his IQ is and how little mistakes he make. How do we come to the conclusion he has a high IQ when all his passes are checkdowns to ATHs and rarely ever does he have to go through progressions?

 

He's constantly staring down his first reads. Constantly, and that's because he plays in a system where throwing to a designated guy short is the only thing he has to do. In almost every game there are at least two or three throws he makes that ends up incomplete, or getting caught that would be easy picks for NFL guys. Just flip on the Colorado game from 2014 and within his first 10 throws, I count at least 3.

 

In order for Kessler to be an effective QB, everything around him has to be right, something so much as a player being disrupted as they run a quick route in the NFL is all it would take to render him useless.

 

 

My prospect grading is always based 100% on what I see on the field RIGHT NOW. I don't factor in potential. I don't factor in development. I don't like to judge where a guy may be 3 years down the road because it's a damn mess to try and do that. Cody Kessler is a low-risk option for any team that is content to have a QB go 20-30 for 250 yards and two touchdowns every game. He isn't throwing a 70-yard bomb standing still. He isn't escaping trouble and running for 20 yards. He isn't a project with seemingly endless potential. He is a high-quality game manager who can be inserted day one and run an offense with relative ease at the pro level.

It's becoming increasingly tough to find guys who can come out of college and handle an NFL offense from the start of their pro career. For every Derek Carr there are three Bryce Pettys. Will Kessler be the best quarterback of this draft class in the long run (given he gets a fair shot)? I'd give it a 25% or so. Paxton Lynch is way further along than people like to admit and he has immaculate upside. Jared Goff is blessed with tremendous vision as a QB and can play like a savvy vet coming out, even if he has occasional slips with accuracy. Even Carson Wentz has a shot to be better than Kessler given his short to intermediate game and prototype build. But none of these guys have the ability to pick apart a defense without mistakes like Kessler from day one. None of these other guys (Big 3) can currently jump through all four reads he has to make and then deliver a strike to move the chains. None of these other guys can settle for a checkdown rather than force a dart into traffic.

 

I know you're a big fan of looking at the prospects potential. I understand that method and respect it immensely. There are some freak athletes out there who fill out their game to match their potential and become some of the best players in the league. But I value the technical side to a QB a lot more personally.

 

 

This isn't even about "potential" or what a guy can do now vs. what a guy can do later. If a guy is already a game manager in college football, imagine what he'll be in the NFL.

 

You can be the smartest QB of all time, but if you're limited physically in the NFL, you'll get taken apart.

 

Doesn't have an NFL arm, doesn't have an NFL body, doesn't have NFL athleticism, spotty footwork, isn't a threat outside of the pocket. He's just far too limited.

 

Flip on the game against Washington and you see all the issues revolving this guy. That defense totally exposed him, and that's a college D, and a Pac 12 one at that, which take it from a guy who watched tons of Pac 12 last year, I can vouch for how bad the defenses are.

 

He's Kellen Moore with more size. And I'd argue that Moore had a bit better accuracy then he does. Moore was undrafted, and so should Kessler in my mind. I'm all about sticking to your guts and trusting what you see (see: My opinion on Mariota), but I saw this guy play a lot this past season and... I most definitely do not see it.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Also I'm sorry if my response is kinda choppy, and may be missing words... I'm doing all this from a phone.

[Cherry 1,302]

I've never noticed an issue with his spiral. The ball tends to hang if he lobs it up 35+ down the field but it's never been a complete duck from everything I've watched.

 

I don't think he necessarily has issues with pocket presence. He's usually really good at stepping up in the pocket and delivering. I've seen him get rattled if he's taking a beating but if his line isn't complete shit he usually does well.

 

I completely 100% disagree with you on this one. If his first read is open he'll go there but Kessler is easily the best QB in this class at going through his progressions.

 

I agree 100%. He has to be in the right situation. He has to be in a safe situation. A team can't draft him with no talent around him and expect magic. He's a game manager to the max and he needs to be filling the position, not carrying the team.

 

It is current version v potential to some extent. It's also largely based on where the guy goes but it's still important to see the prospects for who they are at the moment. Worst case scenario I think Kessler is a below average starter, because that's already what he is going to be as he comes out.

 

I do personally believe that Kessler is one of the smartest quarterbacks in years. I think that mental strength and ability to pick apart a defense under 20 yards will earn him a lot of respect. He's not throwing Peyton ducks out there. He's throwing decently accurate short to intermediate passes to the guy he finds open. They're not perfect passes or complete darts but they have solid velocity and a good enough spiral to work.

 

I'll watch the game against Washington once I get back on film tomorrow.

 

That's understandable. I try to take multiple looks at prospects that I disagree strongly with people on. I try to see the flaws or strengths of players that I usually disagree on. The biggest one that I always run into is potential v current state. I think our biggest disagreement on Kessler is his football IQ and mental ability. You think he is doing one read checkdowns. I think he is going through his progressions and cutting the defense up. Without the ability to transition through his reads and make the right decision on every single play I'd see Kessler the same way. An undrafted chump. I think we both agree that his potential is limited though. USC Kessler is NFL Kessler.

Edited April 20, 2016 by Chernobyl426

[Vin+ 3,121]

 

"Numerous sources" have told TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline that Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander is "a very difficult person to deal with off the field."

Additionally, "some of his [college] coaches are giving Alexander less than rave reviews to NFL teams." The junior cornerback's been the topic of discussion across war rooms leading up to the draft, and it sounds like off-field issues could push Alexander down boards. Alexander is viewed by some as a potential mid-first round pick. Alexander is 5'10/190 and ran a 4.47 forty at the Tigers' Pro Day.

Source: Walter Football

 

 

 

According to Alex Marvez of Fox Sports, the Eagles and Browns have set the framework for a potential trade involving the No. 2 pick.

Per Marvez, the Eagles would give up first and third round picks in 2016 and 2017. The Eagles are reportedly enamored with North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz and they'll probably have to trade up to No. 2 to get him. Then again, the Eagles have also shown keen interest in Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott, who they might be able to grab at No. 8. If the two sides can't reach an agreement, the Eagles could try trading up to No. 3. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported Tuesday that the Chargers are shopping their pick.

Source: Alex Marvez on Twitter

 

 

 

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Chargers are receiving "plenty of interest" from teams looking to trade up for the No. 3 overall pick.

Per Rapsheet, "the Chargers' phones are getting just as much action" as the Browns, who are known to be shopping the second pick. While the top two picks will likely be quarterbacks, anything is in play at No. 3. It's possible a team could trade up for Ole Miss LT Laremy Tunsil. The San Diego Union-Tribune recently called Tunsil a "messy fit" for the Chargers at No. 3. The Bolts could just be doing their due diligence but we wouldn't be shocked if they traded down.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

[Vin+ 3,121]

 

Ryan O'Halloran said the "consensus" among his colleagues at the Florida Times-Union is that Jacksonville will select UCLA LB Myles Jack with the fifth overall pick.

Jack's Combine medical recheck didn't go as well as hoped, but perhaps the Jags feel he's too good to pass on at No. 5. We've seen Jack go anywhere from fourth to 17th in recent mocks, so taking him fifth overall would obviously be on the optimistic side of things. The Jags must have liked what they saw from Jack during his visit last week.

Source: Ryan O'Halloran on Twitter

 

 

 

 

 

Cowboys executive VP Stephen Jones said the team will give "strong consideration" to taking Ohio State DE Joey Bosa with the fourth overall pick.

Previous reports suggested Dallas only had mild interest but perhaps Bosa impressed them during his pre-draft visit. Oregon DL DeForest Buckner and Florida State CB Jalen Ramsey have also paid visits to Dallas while the team has shown strong interest in Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott. It's still anyone's guess who the Cowboys pick at No. 4.

Source: Jon Machota on Twitter

 

 

 

 

 

According to Bleacher Report's Jason Cole, if owner Jerry Jones "gets his wish," the Cowboys could select Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott with the fourth overall pick.

Per Cole, Jones is looking to recreate the "Triplets" team of the 1990s with Elliott playing the Emmitt Smith role. Of course, Jones has been overruled in the draft process on plenty of occasions (Johnny Manziel was a recent example) and most feel that Elliott will probably fall somewhere in the 8-14 range. Cole said Elliott won't get past the Dolphins at 13th overall.

Source: Bleacher Report

 

 

 

 

 

USA Today's Tom Pelissero reports teams are "uneasy" about drafting Michigan State QB Connor Cook.

This falls in line with previous comments on Cook's character. "There’s something off," an NFL quarterbacks coach said. "You just don’t trust him." A GM for a different team added there's "something missing with him." None of this is new for Cook, but it's clear there's a lot of concern over him in league circles. Cook looks headed for a draft day fall.

Source: USA Today

Edited April 22, 2016 by Vin

[butta54 371]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000654963/article/10-believable-things-amid-all-the-nfl-draft-misinformation

[Cherry 1,302]

Three days left until draft...

[Vin+ 3,121]

 

Memphis QB Paxton Lynch reportedly scored an 18 on the Wonderlic Test.

Some NFL scouts have expressed concerns about Lynch's maturity, and his intelligence may also be criticized following the below-average score. For comparison, Carson Wentz scored 40, Jared Goff 34, and Cardale Jones 24. On Monday, NFL draft insider Tony Pauline suggested Lynch could call further than expected and might even get drafted after Christian Hackenberg.

Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

 

 

 

 

NFL draft insider Tony Pauline passes along "a belief" that the league is "pressuring" the Rams to keep their quarterback target quiet in an effort to "build speculation" regarding the No. 1 overall pick.

"The NFL Draft has become such big business that the league hopes to build speculation around who will ultimately end up as the top selection," wrote Pauline. Unfortunately for the league, the secret appears to be out. The Rams are fully expect to drafted Jared Goff, leaving Carson Wentz for the Eagles.

Source: philadelphiaeagles.com

 

 

 

One NFL personnel executive predicted to NJ.com that UCLA LB Myles Jack (knee) will fall out of the top-ten picks.

NJ.com's Mark Eckel makes it clear this executive does not work for a team in position to draft Jack and isn't "trying to allow him to drop for that reason" by spreading misinformation. "No," said the executive when Eckel mocked Jack to the Jaguars at No. 5. "(Jack) is going to drop. Teams are scared off by his knee. He's not going in the top 10." Another personnel executive echoed the concern. Jack will be Thursday night's biggest draft wild card.

Source: NJ.com

 

 

 

 

According to SI's Peter King, Notre Dame LT Ronnie Stanley "might be in the process of passing" Laremy Tunsil as the top tackle in this year's class.

This isn't a knock on Tunsil, but simply praise for Stanley, whose stock appears to be on the rise. After the Titans dropped from No. 1 to No. 15, Stanley became linked to Tennessee. It'd now be a shock if he fell that far. King connects Stanley as high as the Chargers at No. 3 and ultimately has Stanley being taken in the top-eight picks. Stanley stands 6'6/312 with monster hands and vine-like arms.

Source: Sports Illustrated

 

 

All sorts of stuff in that SI link.

[Cherry 1,302]

About time Stanley got some respect.

 

Paxton AFTER Hackenberg tho? Pls.

[Vin+ 3,121]

 

MMQB's Albert Breer reports UCLA LB Myles Jack is dealing with a "chondral defect" in his troublesome right knee.

It's a fancy term for articular cartilage damage, resulting from Jack's college PCL injuries. It's also a defect that can eventually lead to microfracture surgery. According to Breer, the problems Jack will face from the injury are "up for debate," and probably viewed differently amongst NFL teams. Breer reports some teams believe Jack "can play with it," but it may affect his "career length." Widely considered this year's premier college prospect, Jack's draft position will be one of Thursday's great mysteries.

Source: Albert Breer on Twitter

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Poor Jack, got Ajayi'd but he's better so he won't fall as much. I think Jags end up taking Bosa if he's there.

 

EDIT: and also after seeing interviews and Paxton Lynch on Sportscenter answering questions sitting around I'm not that shocked that people are questioning his intelligence all of a sudden he does seem kind of like the big dumb kid along for the ride

 

Just found the best in depth stuff about draft prospects injuries http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/top-2016-nfl-draft-medical-issues/ Shame about Myles Jack has nothing to do with his recent knee injury apparently he was born with it.

Edited April 26, 2016 by CampinWithTheOldestSpice

[Vin+ 3,121]

 

TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline reports the 49ers "desperately covet" Oregon DE DeForest Buckner.

Buckner is a candidate to be the first non-quarterback drafted, with the Chargers at No. 3 overall linked heavily to him for a number of weeks. But if San Diego opts instead for an offensive lineman or CB/S Jalen Ramsey, Buckner is a candidate to tumble for a couple picks and could land either in the Ravens'. 49ers', or Browns' laps at Nos. 6, 7, and 8 overall. If the 49ers are that enamored with Buckner, they have the ammo -- a league-high 12 picks -- to move up.

Source: Walter Football

 

 

 

 

TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline reports there's a "very good chance" the Titans use one of their three second-round picks on Ohio State WR Braxton Miller.

Per Pauline, Miller isn't expected to get past the Texans at No. 52. If the Titans stand pat at No. 15 overall and don't trade any of their twos to move up, they'll have the Nos. 33, 43, and 45 overall picks in the second round on Friday. Miller would give them an electric athlete who can play the slot and force Harry Douglas into a "leadership" role as the veteran No. 4 receiver.

Source: Walter Football

 

 

 

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Gerry Dulac pegs Ohio State CB Eli Apple as the Steelers' "guy" at No. 25 overall.

Apple's stock appears to be on the rise, and he could be gone by the time the Steelers are on the clock. One thing appears certain; the Steelers are zeroed in on a defensive back in the first round. Houston CB William Jackson III, Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander, and West Virginia S Karl Joseph are also in play.

Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

 

 

 

 

And...

 

 

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the city of Philadelphia "has emerged as the leading candidate" to host the 2017 Draft.

L.A. is also in the conversation. At the moment, Philadelphia makes more sense while the Rams work on the construction of their mega NFL complex that will also be home to NFL Network. The plan is to have it done by 2019. NFL cities all across the country have expressed a desire to host the draft.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter