Cherry's Big Board: First Rounders in the Sixth

[Cherry 1,302]

 

This board is solely a measure of how good a player is at their current level. It does not estimate the future of a prospect, or the potential growth they will see. It does not account for the system or scheme they are put into at the NFL level. It does not account for injuries. I firmly believe that these are the talent levels of each player as they enter the NFL draft this year. Enjoy the read, and feel free to ask questions. My memory on some of the guys may be vague, but I will do my best to help explain why I place players where I do.

 

My criteria:

 

Talent - Above all else. Regardless of the scheme a player is put into or how favorable their situation is, you can usually get a feel for how truly talented a guy is. This is not necessarily putting up big stats or getting turnovers. This accounts for strength, burst, speed, instincts, and general ability.

 

Technique - The second most important piece of my criteria. Technique is key at the highest level of football. You can be an absolutely monstrous athlete with immense amounts of talent, but if you are unable to apply your skills using proper technique you will fail against people who are better prepared. While technique can be taught, I think it plays a large role from the start. If a prospect hasn’t learned the intricacies of their position by the time they are about to be drafted I have a lot of worry as to their ability to learn it over the course of their NFL career.

 

Intelligence - While this partially falls under technique, I think it is worthy of its own category. Intelligence is a very tricky thing to scout. It’s difficult to read the field from a player’s eyes when you are not that player. But you can often see it in the way guys react and treat the situation in each play. Does the safety bite on an underneath fake and let a receiver get over the top? Does the linebacker adjust himself properly to meet the ballcarrier as he finds a hole in the line? Does a quarterback know when to pull the ball down and take the hit rather than chuck up a prayer? These things stand out in crucial moments.

 

These are the three big things I look for when scouting. If a player is talented but lacks technique or intelligence, they may drop to the middle of the draft or further for me. If a guy is rather mediocre athletically but possesses a good mental game and great technique they could come out as a borderline first rounder.

 

Grading Scale:

I’m using a system of 1-10 with up to one numeral after the decimal point.

 

10 - 9: Hall of Fame caliber player

8.99 - 8: Perennial All-Pro

7.99 - 7: Potential All-Pro, Perennial Pro Bowler

6.99 - 6: Potential Pro Bowler

5.99 - 5: Consistent NFL starter

4.99 - 4: Potential NFL starter

3.99 - 3: Consistent Backup

2.99 - 2: Depth Player

1.99 - 1: Practice Squad at most

1 - 0: Shouldn’t make a roster

 

Note: There are only around 115 or so prospects on this board. I didn't want to waste time watching sixth or seventh rounders given the volatility of the picks that late. If you have anybody in particular you want me to put up on the board, let me know.

 

1st round

Myles Jack LB UCLA 9.2

Jalen Ramsey DB Florida State 8.6

Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame 8.3

Robert Nkemdiche DT/DE Ole Miss 7.6

Jaylon Smith LB Notre Dame 7.5

Noah Spence DE Eastern Kentucky 7.3

Taylor Decker OT Ohio State 6.9

Devontae Booker RB Utah 6.9

William Jackson III CB Houston 6.8

Darron Lee LB Ohio State 6.7

Michael Thomas WR Ohio State 6.6

Shaq Lawson EDGE Clemson 6.5

Karl Joseph S West Virginia 6.4

Vernon Hargreaves III CB Florida 6.4

Paxton Lynch QB Memphis 6.4

Reggie Ragland LB Alabama 6.4

DeForest Buckner DE Oregon 6.3

Jared Goff QB California 6.3

Will Fuller WR Notre Dame 6.3

Kenneth Dixon RB Louisiana Tech 6.2

A’Shawn Robinson DT Alabama 6.2

Laquon Treadwell WR Ole Miss 6.1

Cody Kessler QB USC 5.9

Darian Thompson S Boise State 5.8

Kevin Dodd DE/OLB Clemson 5.7

Carl Nassib DE Penn State 5.7

Charles Tapper DE Oklahoma 5.7

Jonathan Bullard DT/DE Florida 5.7

Ryan Kelly C Alabama 5.6

 

2nd round

Josh Doctson WR TCU 5.6

Vonn Bell S Ohio State 5.6

Christian Westerman OG Arizona State 5.6

Cody Whitehair OG Kansas State 5.5

Kenny Clark DT UCLA 5.5

Joshua Perry LB Ohio State 5.5

Jarran Reed DT Alabama 5.5

Laremy Tunsil OT Ole Miss 5.4

Carson Wentz QB North Dakota State 5.4

Eli Apple CB Ohio State 5.4

Nick Vannett TE Ohio State 5.4

Hunter Henry TE Arkansas 5.3

Shilique Calhoun DE Michigan State 5.3

Jeremy Cash S Duke 5.3

Jack Conklin OT Michigan State 5.2

Corey Coleman WR Baylor 5.2

Joey Bosa DE Ohio State 5.1

Kentrell Brothers LB Missouri 5.1

Sheldon Day DT Notre Dame 5.1

Austin Johnson DT Penn State 5.0

Keanu Neal S Florida 5.0

Paul Perkins RB UCLA 5.0

Braxton Miller RB/WR Ohio State 5.0

Artie Burns CB Miami 5.0

Chris Jones DT Mississippi State 5.0

Nick Martin C Notre Dame 5.0

TJ Green CB Clemson 4.9

Shon Coleman OG Auburn 4.9

DeAndre Houston-Carson S William & Mary 4.9

Bronson Kaufusi DE BYU 4.8

Sheldon Rankins DT Louisville 4.8

Vernon Butler DT Louisiana Tech 4.8

 

3rd round

Pharoh Cooper WR South Carolina 4.7

Spencer Drango OT Baylor 4.7

Germain Ifedi OT Texas A&M 4.7

Mackenzie Alexander CB Clemson 4.7

Sterling Shepard WR Oklahoma 4.7

Aaron Burbridge WR Michigan State 4.6

Adolphus Washington DT Ohio State 4.6

Deion Jones LB LSU 4.6

Beniquez Brown LB Mississippi State 4.5

Geronimo Allison WR Illinois 4.5

Shawn Oakman DE/OLB Baylor 4.5

Le’Raven Clark OT Texas Tech 4.5

Josh Forrest LB Kentucky 4.4

Tyler Boyd WR Pittsburgh 4.3

Joshua Garnett OG Stanford 4.2

Jack Allen C Michigan State 4.1

Emmanuel Ogbah EDGE Oklahoma State 4.0

Hassan Ridgeway DT Texas 4.0

Scooby Wright III LB Arizona 3.9

 

4th round

Leonte Carroo WR Rutgers 3.9

Jason Spriggs OT Indiana 3.9

Connor McGovern OG Missouri 3.9

Alex Collins RB Arkansas 3.9

Derrick Henry RB Alabama 3.8

Ezekiel Elliot RB Ohio State 3.8

Kyler Fackrell OLB Utah State 3.8

Christian Hackenberg QB Penn State 3.7

Connor Cook QB Michigan State 3.6

Denver Kirkland OG Arkansas 3.6

Vadal Alexander OG LSU 3.6

Landon Turner OG North Carolina 3.5

Sua Cravens S USC 3.5

Andrew Billings DT Baylor 3.4

Blake Frohnapfel QB UMass 3.4

 

5th round

CJ Prosise RB Notre Dame 3.3

Tyler Matakevich LB Temple 3.2

Xavien Howard CB Baylor 3.2

Jalen Mills S LSU 3.1

 

6th round

Maliek Collins DT Nebraska 2.8

Trae Elston S Ole Miss 2.7

Kevin Byard S Middle Tennessee State 2.7

Caleb Benenoch OT UCLA 2.5

Kendall Fuller CB Virginia Tech 2.4

Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia 2.3

Joel Stave QB Wisconsin 2.1

 

7th round

Jake Rudock QB Michigan 2.1

Miles Killebrew S Southern Utah 2.0

 

PUDFA

Vad Lee QB James Madison (convert to RB) 1.8

Nate Sudfeld QB Indiana 1.8

Tre Roberson QB Illinois St (convert to RB) 1.8

 

UDFA

Daxx Garman QB Maryland 1.1

Yannick Ngakoue EDGE Maryland 0.8

Marquise Williams QB North Carolina 0.6

Edited April 22, 2016 by Chernobyl426

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Haven't actually thoroughly looked at this yet, but +1 for creating such an exhaustive list.

[butta54 371]

I'm going to need...

 

 

-Taylor Decker way over Jack Conklin explained

 

 

-CJ Prosise being undrafted explained.

[Vin+ 3,121]

You're gonna have to fight some people about Prosise I think.

[BwareDWare94 723]

Nice work. You're just flat out wrong about Wentz but I do trust your evaluation process and appreciate the work you put into it. Things like this make you a unique poster, so keep it up, my friend.

[Cherry 1,302]

I'm going to need...

 

 

-Taylor Decker way over Jack Conklin explained

 

 

-CJ Prosise being undrafted explained.

 

I think this all depends on how you're looking at Decker v Conklin. I think Decker is a natural right tackle and playing as a right tackle he is in my top 10. If you shifted Decker over to LT you'd see him be a late first or early second. Personally I think Decker is a much more refined player from a technical standpoint right now. He is much less likely to get blown off the line than Conklin and is in general a better anchor. I've seen Conklin struggle against guys who are quick off the snap because he gets his frame too high and proceeds to get bulldozed backwards. I've also seen him struggle to handle quick rushers off the edge who can get around his side and make him chase them back out of the pocket. Decker is also much more of a force in the run game and can drive larger linemen back with a lot more ease than Conklin can. Conklin will often pivot his body wrong when pushing a guy back and it gets him turned too much, allowing a defender to get in and make a play when he should have been walled off. Conklin is a guaranteed decent block on 7 of 10 plays. Decker is a guaranteed good block on 9 of 10 plays.

 

This one bothers me a lot too. I tried to watch more than normal on Prosise to get rid of this grade because it seemed so outlandish, but it never budged. He has a very time adjusting where he is going, in my opinion. He can't cut like you'd like to see in a professional running back, and he's just a pretty poor runner all around. He doesn't break tackles. He rarely makes guys miss. He's not a great blocker from what I saw. He's a receiving back and that's it from what I saw. Any particular games you think I should watch to change my mind? If he's shifted to WR I might grade him higher, but as a RB I just don't see what there is that everyone loves.

[Cherry 1,302]

Nice work. You're just flat out wrong about Wentz but I do trust your evaluation process and appreciate the work you put into it. Things like this make you a unique poster, so keep it up, my friend.

 

It's based on a combination of things why I have Wentz as a second rounder. I absolutely love his arm talent and his frame, but when it comes to everything else I'm just not sure about him. If he gets the right team he will be a guaranteed beast. He has a very mediocre deep ball that often hangs too long and is usually off target. He handles defensive pressure very poorly from what I've seen, and isn't too good at moving around in the pocket. Note that I do think he will be a consistent NFL starter. He has a lot of talent already and his upside is phenomenal. But right now I just can't put him in that upper echelon. It's tough to teach the accuracy that Wentz naturally has, which makes me willing to grade him highly even though the rest of his game is a bit lacking.

[ATL_Predator+ 1,196]

I really have no gripes with this list, surpisingly. However...

 

I thought you weren't big on Nkemdiche?

[butta54 371]

 

I think this all depends on how you're looking at Decker v Conklin. I think Decker is a natural right tackle and playing as a right tackle he is in my top 10. If you shifted Decker over to LT you'd see him be a late first or early second. Personally I think Decker is a much more refined player from a technical standpoint right now. He is much less likely to get blown off the line than Conklin and is in general a better anchor. I've seen Conklin struggle against guys who are quick off the snap because he gets his frame too high and proceeds to get bulldozed backwards. I've also seen him struggle to handle quick rushers off the edge who can get around his side and make him chase them back out of the pocket. Decker is also much more of a force in the run game and can drive larger linemen back with a lot more ease than Conklin can. Conklin will often pivot his body wrong when pushing a guy back and it gets him turned too much, allowing a defender to get in and make a play when he should have been walled off. Conklin is a guaranteed decent block on 7 of 10 plays. Decker is a guaranteed good block on 9 of 10 plays.

 

This one bothers me a lot too. I tried to watch more than normal on Prosise to get rid of this grade because it seemed so outlandish, but it never budged. He has a very time adjusting where he is going, in my opinion. He can't cut like you'd like to see in a professional running back, and he's just a pretty poor runner all around. He doesn't break tackles. He rarely makes guys miss. He's not a great blocker from what I saw. He's a receiving back and that's it from what I saw. Any particular games you think I should watch to change my mind? If he's shifted to WR I might grade him higher, but as a RB I just don't see what there is that everyone loves.

 

I can respectfully agree to disagree about Decker and Conklin.

 

Watch CJ against USC.

[Cherry 1,302]

I really have no gripes with this list, surpisingly. However...

 

I thought you weren't big on Nkemdiche?

 

Depends on where you play him. This is assuming he plays as a 4-3 DT who is mainly a pass rusher. I think of him a lot like Geno Atkins. He comes off as undersized for the position but that's mainly because he consistently gets so low. He has outrageous penetration and it takes a very good double team to hold him back. Really good moves to get by players as long as he doesn't raise himself up too much and get snagged on a guys arms. He's strong enough to hold up and anchor the run game and occasionally bust through and make a tackle for a loss. Also has ridiculous speed when he is getting through. A RB never has a chance against Nkemdiche.

[Cherry 1,302]

CJ is up to the top of the fifth round now. Didn't get to see that kind of open-field running on the tape I watched. He has a lot of potential given how tough it is to bring down such a compact guy. I still don't like his cutting or inside running game but I see the argument for him now.

 

 

For the record on Smith/Jack/Spence/Nkemdiche.

 

It fucking infuriates me when people try to make a judgement on how good a player will be after an injury or if they are worth being so high on a board because of character issues. These are very real issues and concerns if you are part of an NFL front office. You should worry about a guy who has a history of drugs or domestic violence. You should worry about a guy like Jaylon Smith who supposedly has nerve damage. But, if you are a media outlet or a private individual making a board you should not use an off-the-field issue or an injury as a reason to grade a guy lower than his talent level. It's arrogant as shit for someone to say "Oh Jaylon Smith is done. He should go undrafted," without having actual insider knowledge. Never met the guy. Not a doctor. Shouldn't make that call. Again with drug issues or off-the-field stuff. Never met the guy. Can't make that call.

Edited April 22, 2016 by Chernobyl426

[butta54 371]

Evaluations aren't talent alone. Character & Personality are very real traits that are evaluated as well when looking at a prospect. Speculating on injuries is one thing. But red flags in character I would say most definitely should affect a player's rating. Football is a mostly about mentally ability at the end of the day.

[Thanatos 2,847]

Alright, I'll bite.

 

Why is Tunsil so low comparative to where nearly everyone else I've read has him?

Tunsil is consensus #1 elsewhere, a few people have him below Stanley, but virtually no one has him any worse.

Edited April 22, 2016 by Thanatos

[Cherry 1,302]

Evaluations aren't talent alone. Character & Personality are very real traits that are evaluated as well when looking at a prospect. Speculating on injuries is one thing. But red flags in character I would say most definitely should affect a player's rating. Football is a mostly about mentally ability at the end of the day.

 

Of course, but again it comes back to who is doing the evaluations. Speculating on a players personal life or what they are going to do is just as bad as speculating on injuries. It's nearly impossible to predict if a guy will have one issue and be done or if a guy will be a constant fuck-up. If you're an NFL team with access to that player and all of their information I'm fine with it, but I think it's silly for the media or uninformed people to make that judgement.

[Cherry 1,302]

Alright, I'll bite.

 

Why is Tunsil so low comparative to where nearly everyone else I've read has him?

Tunsil is consensus #1 elsewhere, a few people have him below Stanley, but virtually no one has him any worse.

 

He isn't technically sound at this point. He has a shitload of potential but I see him get pushed around way too much for my liking solely due to bad hand placement, standing awkwardly, and generally not trying to use anything but pure physical ability. He's going to struggle against more refined NFL competition when he first comes out. I think if he becomes a better technical blocker and shows more consistency he'll be a great pro.

Edited April 22, 2016 by Chernobyl426

[ATL_Predator+ 1,196]

Evaluations aren't talent alone. Character & Personality are very real traits that are evaluated as well when looking at a prospect. Speculating on injuries is one thing. But red flags in character I would say most definitely should affect a player's rating. Football is a mostly about mentally ability at the end of the day.

 

Who are you to judge one's character or mental ability?

 

Do you know what these guys deal with when they are off the field? Do you know how they interact with their teammates or coaches? How is one supposed to competently throw that evaluation into a ranking system without going off of little quality data or observations to support it?

[BwareDWare94 723]

 

Who are you to judge one's character or mental ability?

 

Do you know what these guys deal with when they are off the field? Do you know how they interact with their teammates or coaches? How is one supposed to competently throw that evaluation into a ranking system without going off of little quality data or observations to support it?

 

It's not the most empathetic stance to take, but I assume NFL franchises tell their players that "We pay you enough to separate work from home. Don't bring any bullshit in here with you."

 

In other words, I think he means character and personality in terms of how they handle in-house adversity and treat their teammates, superiors, and inferiors.

[butta54 371]

 

Who are you to judge one's character or mental ability?

 

Do you know what these guys deal with when they are off the field? Do you know how they interact with their teammates or coaches? How is one supposed to competently throw that evaluation into a ranking system without going off of little quality data or observations to support it?

 

Um it's not hard to get a feel for a player. As much as digging as these teams do they don't know the players all that intimately before they draft them. Almost every scheduled interview is rehearsed and practiced by every training facility these days. They say the right answers and what the teams want to hear.

 

There aren't little observations....there are thousands of things you can observe watching these players and all types of places to watch them at....spring interviews, post-practice interviews, post-game interviews, combine interviews, local school interviews, announcement on entering the draft, radio interviews, award acceptance speeches, senior bowl interviews.....there isn't data that goes behind this....there aren't numbers you need to put in place to calculate how you feel about a player.

 

Your actions speak louder than words. Body language, tone inflection, everything down to the clothes they choose to wear is taken into consideration. It isn't hard to judge character especially if you have experience evaluating and no what you are looking for. You can easily tell the guys that are driven by the love of the game and the guys that just want to get paid.

 

Your mental ability is proven on film, of course we are talking wonderlic or ACT score type mental ability. We are talking about the ability to process football knowledge and use it in the game. The #1 hands down easiest way to figure that out is by looking at what a player is asked to do in their system. Coaches tailor schemes every year to fit their strengths...not hard to see which guys are simplistic.

 

What they deal with off the field doesn't meant that much. As a coach yes I will know their family situation and all those things....that let's you know the level of risk involved and do you think you have the resources to help this player be productive in spite of his situation or if you can improve it. That DOES NOT however change the red flags they may have. So I don't have to know every little detail.

[Cherry 1,302]

Again you're looking at it from a deep dive front office perspective. These guys do extensive background checks and interviews with players to get a feel for them. Just like a potential employer, you have to conduct a legitimate check and research your potential employee if you want someone qualified for the job. Media pundits with no insider info or actual contact with the player making judgements on a guy is like an employer judging a potential employee through a mutual friends Facebook posts. I could not give many shits the difference off the field between the Spence situation vs the Nkemdiche situation because I'm not personally involved enough or informed enough to make that call.

 

Matt Prater got kicked off the Broncos for drinking and driving. He is doing fine with the Lions. Johnny Football got kicked off the Browns for the shit he did. He's doing coke in Hollywood. Impossible to know how a life will play out.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

After getting a good look at this, now, I can say I disagree with this list from all angles. Like... I don't know where to start. So lemme preface this by saying it's all a matter of opinion. With that said, your criteria are problematic in the first pace, which relates to a whole nother set of problems which ultimately leads to a list that I don't think is right by any means of the imagination.

 

On no planet is Booker more talented then Zeke. On no planet is Stanley more talented then Tunsil. IDK man... A lot of stuff on here is pretty far off imo.

[Cherry 1,302]

It all depends on what you look for in a position. I look for a guy who has all the traits of a good runner when I look at running back. Is Zeke very well-rounded? Of course. He is an excellent blocker and a decent receiving back. But too often I see him lack any burst, vision, and strength through arm tackles. Booker consistently does way more damage in the run game and that's what matters most to me.

 

I'll politely disagree on Tunsil v Stanley. Stanley is so much better at pass blocking consistently due to being complete in all facets of his game. Tunsil likely has more upside but I think Stanley will come in and dominate from day one at the next level.

 

The issue between us is the way we scout guys and grade them. A lot of your views are based on potential and upside for a guy. I'm just looking purely at what I'm seeing on the field in college. It's why a guy like Floyd who has God measurables is sixth round on my board vs other boards where he is top 20.

 

Pick out any piece of the board and I'll explain why I feel that way.

 

I'll go back and watch another game on Tunsil for you as well.

Edited April 23, 2016 by Chernobyl426

[oochymp 2,393]

Sounds like a potential v current ability issue with Tunsil

 

I'm also glad to see you gave DHC a second round grade, I don't think it's just my W&M bias that has me thinking he could be a stud in the NFL

[Cherry 1,302]

Yeah DHC really stood out to me on tape as a versatile do it all kind of guy that I like at safety. Not a great athlete but I think he is a day one starter.

 

You're absolutely right. Tunsil is one of the best linemen out there from a physical standpoint. A lot to build on. But my analysis is all about where they are as they come in and I think a technician is better than a potential based guy. Tunsil will be decent probably but I just don't know if a potential based player should sit at #1 on a board.

Edited April 24, 2016 by Chernobyl426

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Sorry I haven't been able to be more active but I'll probably be more responsive like on Wednesday or something.

It all depends on what you look for in a position. I look for a guy who has all the traits of a good runner when I look at running back. Is Zeke very well-rounded? Of course. He is an excellent blocker and a decent receiving back. But too often I see him lack any burst, vision, and strength through arm tackles. Booker consistently does way more damage in the run game and that's what matters most to me.

 

While I don't agree with all of this, this particular bit isn't accurate at all imo. His ability to break through arm tackles and play through contact is one of his biggest strength. PFF had him second among HBs in this class to gain over a 1000 yards after contact, and he had far less caries then Henry who was first. In the games against Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn State there were many plays where he displayed incredible level of power.

 

In the championship game Zeke displayed a level of balance, explosiveness, and ability to run through arms that I have never seen from Booker. I watched Booker play a lot last year and I really question how anyone can come away more impressed with him as a runner then Zeke. Especially talking about lacking burst, and explosiveness.

 

I'll politely disagree on Tunsil v Stanley. Stanley is so much better at pass blocking consistently due to being complete in all facets of his game. Tunsil likely has more upside but I think Stanley will come in and dominate from day one at the next level.

Stanley's technique isn't so good that it makes up for the fact that the two aren't close athletically. Not only that but when you consider the fact that Tunsil played against the best pass rushers in the nation and excelled.

 

Also, you can have the greatest technique in the world, but if you don't have great functional strength, or ability to handle quick guys off the edge, I don't know how likely you are to dominate from day 1.

 

The issue between us is the way we scout guys and grade them. A lot of your views are based on potential and upside for a guy. I'm just looking purely at what I'm seeing on the field in college. It's why a guy like Floyd who has God measurables is sixth round on my board vs other boards where he is top 20.

Pick out any piece of the board and I'll explain why I feel that way.







I'll go back and watch another game on Tunsil for you as well.

 

 

Your criteria simply isn't a good way to evaluate players going into the NFL because potential and projection, and transition from college game to professional game doesn't seem to have impact in your rankings, and for real scouts these are the areas that are most pivotal.

 

This is how you end up with guys who have much less talent being higher. It's essentially a power rankings based on production and how they looked against inferior talent then it is a projection of how good they'll be in the NFL.

 

[Cherry 1,302]

I don't agree at all on Zeke. I didn't see power or burst like I did from Booker. But I don't think either of us are budging.

 

In my opinion it is. I think Stanley has a lot more strength than people give him credit for.

 

I can't put together a board factoring in projections and potential if I don't know where a player is going. After the draft I can go pick by pick with how I think they'll pan out.

 

My rankings are based on how I rate them as far as day one impact. That's why Tunsil and Wentz are lower even though they are both first rounders who should be good in a few years.