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BwareDWare94

Predict How the Divisions Unfold, Playoff Seeds

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I predicted the Saints winning the SB 31-17 over the Colts as a kid. Do you know how I did it?

 

Blind guessing and "Who I KNOW is the better team" (Note: I didn't even know Brees was the Saints QB. I didn't know who Brees was.)

 

Does this make me smart and all-knowing? No. It means I threw out a score and shit ended up in my favor.

 

Anyone can say, "I'll pick this team just cause I think they're better."

 

That doesn't make it true. You have zero factual evidence that it's true, just a blind hope it works.

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You got 3 out of 3 and assume you're a brilliant mind is the issue. I've hit perfect weeks on picking games. It's meaningless dude. Give us your playoff teams and let's see how right you are by the end of the season.

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Luck is just the influence of chance. Guessing something right 3 times in a row does not imply that you will get something right all the time. How can you say you're not lucky when you can only guess the playoff teams right at the same rate that flipping a coin would? Your logic is not only factually unsound, it's mathematically unsound as well.

 

Here using your logic. The Browns, Rams and the Patriots make the playoffs every year. Every year one of these teams makes the playoffs, therefore these teams always make the playoffs every year. Like, I was giving you the benefit of the doubt here, and assuming your brain operates on logic, but I'm thinking I really should rescind that benefit. Correlation does not imply causation.

 

Anyway, we do have your predictions on record, so we can see for ourselves exactly how they'll turn out. My guess? You'll get somewhere between 45-55% of your picks right and 4-8 of the playoff teams. Not a statistically significant amount higher than random chance.

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PhilElliott predictions in plain form.

 

1. Steelers 13-3

2. Raiders 11-5

3. Colts 9-7

4. Bills 8-8

5. Ravens 11-5

6. Chiefs 10-6

 

1. Vikings 13-3

2. Giants 12-4

3. Saints 12-4

4. Seahawks 10-6

5. Falcons 11-5

6. Packers 11-5

 

Bills beat Ravens

Colts beat Chiefs

Falcons beat Seahawks

Saints beat Packers

 

Colts beat Raiders

Steelers beat Bills

Saints beat Giants

Vikings beat Falcons

 

Colts beat Steelers

Vikings beat Saints

 

Colts beat Vikings and win the SB.

 

So let's analyze this using PhilElliot logic.

 

The Raiders, who haven't made a playoff game since 2002, make a playoff game.

 

The Bills, who haven't made a playoff game since 1999, make a playoff game.

 

The Patriots, who have made it to five straight AFC Championship games, miss the playoffs.

 

The Vikings, who haven't made it out of the wild card since 2009, get to the super bowl.

 

The Giants, who haven't made the playoffs for four years, go 12-4 and win division.

 

The Saints, who have missed the playoffs for 3 of the past 4 years, get to the conference championship game.

 

The Falcons, who haven't made it to the playoffs for 3 years, make it.

 

The Bengals, who have made it to the playoffs for 5 straight years, miss.

 

The Browns, who are a perennial shit-stain, go 7-9.

 

Going by your logic, these are all impossible. Now that your logic has been busted, please reveal who it is trolling TGP to stir up conversation.

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Had a bye last year? No they got knocked out wild card against Hawks.

 

Your logic of "These teams are the winning teams that have had success in the past".

 

Half of your answers are "It's unimportant" or "I don't care about them."

 

My easily influenced inexperienced ass wants explanations for your picks, similar to how you did with the Patriots pick. That's the reason we're hounding the fuck out of you. If you believe a team is going to be better than last year, explain WHY you feel that way. What makes the Saints go from being an under .500 team to being a conference championship team? What makes the Panthers an 8-8 team after a 15-1 season?

 

You've shown some particular picks that make sense. The Patriots very well could miss the playoffs due to Tom Brady being out. Cam Newton certainly could drop off from the MVP performance of last season. These are the explanations that work, man.

 

But when you say stuff like, "These are just the teams that always make it," makes it incredibly tough to take you seriously and debate.

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wrong. you thinking you got one random game right from luck has absolutely nothing to do with What I'm talking about. I'm an adult doing 2 years of research after paying close attention to the outcomes for 30 years. It doesnt compare to your childish memory of a lucky guess.

I already explained to you a distinct percentage of the winning teams constantly getting to the top.

I also said I got the 3 most important games right at end of season even though betting odds and media said otherwise. You cant say I got lucky 3 times out of 3.

Luck is when you dont know what you are doing and get 1 out of 50 or a hundred right.

two years of research is meaningless when teams have an average of about 25% roster turnover every year

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I never changed one single thing, I was consistent.You've just never bothered to ponder it beyond surface level.

I'll let you worry about what you think it means. I'll just continue getting a majority of playoff picks right without needing any more than a passing interest.

I picked the Broncos to beat Patriots last year (in both games) and the Panthers to beat Cards..and then Picked Denver to beat Panthers when everyone said theres no way they beat that steamroller.

This proves to me most of my theories are correct and I will test them again this year.

I'm sorry if I'm having trouble reading your gibberish, but when you list seven teams then say "Always make the playoffs" I read that as you saying that those seven teams are always in the playoffs. When you're pressed on that and shown how wrong it is then you backtrack and say you were saying some combination, which means at least one, but there's no reasonable reading of your original post that gives that interpretation.

 

Then, you can't even explain why your own comment is meaningful. You know what, I can do this too:

Some combination (which I'll define as at least two) of the following seven teams have made the playoffs in each of the last ten seasons:

Arizona, Atlanta, Detroit, Cincinnati, Kansas City, San Diego, and Tennessee

What does that mean? Absolutely nothing, which is my point.

Edited by oochymp
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fun fact: the Patriots and Packers are the only teams with current playoff streaks longer than 5 years, if you reduce that number to 3 seasons you only add in the Broncos, Bengals, and Seahawks, interestingly, two of those three didn't make your list, which leads me to:

 

of these seven teams, three missed the playoffs last season, and I don't know why you listed the Giants and Cowboys, they've each had one playoff appearance in the last five years

 

Carolina would also be in the 2nd list.

Edited by Thanatos

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Carolina would also be in the 2nd list.

Carolina has a current streak of three consecutive seasons, I was going for a cut-off of longer than three seasons, similar to my initial cut-off of longer than five seasons, sorry if I didn't make that clear

 

PhilElliot, I guess I'll start by saying I'm a practicing attorney (which means I've been through law school and passed the Bar exam) so there's no need to question my reading comprehension, I think that covers about half of your post. You were shown wrong in your original statement that those teams "Always make the playoffs" so you changed the goalposts to "some subset is always in the playoffs." I fully understand that the teams I listed don't have a lot of playoff appearances or success, that was my point, it's not that hard to come up with a list of seven teams that always have a subset in the playoffs, that doesn't mean that it's always the same teams in the playoffs.

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If you are an attorney,you are just being a childish pain in the ass at this point.

we've never met and I hope to God we never do

 

You still haven't explained why it matters that some subset of those seven teams is always in the playoffs. I'm pretty sure I could come up with a random group of seven teams that have representation in the playoffs really regularly, that's what I was trying to show with my earlier list. Also, let's get back to the initial reason for that list: you were responding to Thana saying there are always 5 or 6 new teams every year, even if your seven were all in the playoffs every year that'd still leave five spots for new teams.

Edited by oochymp

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You picked the Colts to win the Super Bowl when their QB has a male camel toe, so you're automatically wrong Mr. Elliot.

 

owMeJON.jpg

 

Is this with whom you place your faith?

 

:ugh:

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PhilElliott predictions in plain form.

 

1. Steelers 13-3

2. Raiders 11-5

3. Colts 9-7

4. Bills 8-8

5. Ravens 11-5

6. Chiefs 10-6

 

1. Vikings 13-3

2. Giants 12-4

3. Saints 12-4

4. Seahawks 10-6

5. Falcons 11-5

6. Packers 11-5

 

Bills beat Ravens

Colts beat Chiefs

Falcons beat Seahawks

Saints beat Packers

 

Colts beat Raiders

Steelers beat Bills

Saints beat Giants

Vikings beat Falcons

 

Colts beat Steelers

Vikings beat Saints

 

Colts beat Vikings and win the SB.

 

High energy PhilElliot

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are you trying to say a majority of the teams I picked wont make the playoffs? sure, a lot of those records wont come to pass but no season is over and i'm not worried about a majority of those teams at all. I will be right about most of them making playoffs.

 

Ravens,Chiefs and Packers are the only ones I doubt now.

 

No, I'm saying your picks are accurate and high energy!

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Pats

Raiders

Texans

Steelers

Chiefs

Broncos

 

Cowboys

Seahawks

Lions

Falcons

Giants

Eagles (undefeated at home with 4 home games left)

Edited by seanbrock

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rs_400x225-130929181856-QQcZBfX.gif

 

Can't really figure out the reason for the gif. Had to rewind and see the context of my post, and can't even figure out why I even said it other then the fact I think they'll win the division, which I still do.

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Chiefs can win the AFC West... doesn't really matter.

 

Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders are all getting in, just a matter of seeding.

 

I would love to see the Chiefs get the #2 seed, because we all know how the story of the Chiefs ends in the playoffs. This is a QB driven league. Their defense is good, but not elite like Denver's. Whether it's Alex Smith or Nick Foles, it simply will not get the real job done.

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thats a definite "no"

Broncos might,Chiefs wont

You picked the Chiefs to go 10-6 and get in. Now they're 7-2.

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Phil Elliot down to Colts and Steelers for final four teams it seems.

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8 of my 12 teams are making the playoffs. The Steelers arent important.

seems: ie nothing final for you yet

Your Superbowl champ and runner-up have been eliminated.

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I thought PhilElliot was 'sposed to be a great troll?

 

nick-young-confused-face.jpg

 

It was funny when he got Thanatos and Cherry all riled up in the beginning, but other than that... lol.

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