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Razor's QB Rankings 2016

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Once again, the explanation on how this all works. Any QB on the list either qualifies for passer rating (14 attempts a week), or has at least 100 passing attempts on the season.

QB's are measured on 4 parameters.

1. Modified Completion Percentage. This is Completion Percentage with the addition of sacks as incomplete passes, and runs as completed passes. Factoring sacks and rushing attempts into the equation tanks most efficiency stats, but it generally brings up completion percentage.

2. Modified TD/ATT Percentage. Same as before, Rushing and Passing TD's compared to passes thrown, sacks and rushing attempts. Rewards guys who don't get TD credit for their one yard sneaks, also Cam Newton, probably.

3. Modified Turnover/Attempt Percentage. Now including fumbles. All of them, even the ones that the offense recovers. Why? My logic on this is that recovering a fumble is basically a coin flip. If you lose the ball you're only getting lucky so often. Fumbles are equivalent to half a turnover, because fumbles are recovered by the fumbling team about 50% of the time.

4. Modified Yards per Attempt. Rushing Yards + Passing Yards - Sack Yards divided by rushing attempts, passing attempts and sacks. This stat tanks for nearly everyone, sack yards are a big hit to YPA. I understand not all offensive lines are built the same, but when you compare Chad Henne to Drew Stanton, there's enough of a discrepancy between good and bad QB's with roughly equivalent lines. 6.0 YPA is terrible using raw passer numbers, but with this modification it becomes roughly the average. So keep that in mind.

All players are ranked on those parameters, and then given a sum total of their ranking for each parameter. The lower your score, the more efficient you are. Ties are sorted by the player's YPA, since that has the best correlation to victory among all QB stats.

Here's the Googledoc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ykJ4S2-0hu_flUgYuNpzoV3hpEKuqUHaL64qWizCUa4/edit?usp=sharing

All the raw stats are there, along with a weekly tracker in case you wanted to see how the QB's ranked in their first two weeks. I will say that these sorts of lists don't start hammering out indicative results until the sample size gets larger, so there's still a lot of flux bound to happen. I'd say we start having a good sign of where players are around week 5, but lots can happen.

Week 3 QB Rankings

1. Matt Ryan 12

2. Jimmy Garoppolo 17 (+1)

3. Matt Stafford 29 (+6)
4. Philip Rivers 29 (-2)
5. Drew Brees 32 (+1)
6. Derek Carr 35 (-1)
7. Trevor Siemian 38 (+11)
8. Dak Prescott 38 (+8)
9. Carson Wentz 47 (+12)
10. Sam Bradford 50 (-6)
11. Eli Manning 56 (-3)
12. Ryan Tannehill 58 (+7)
13. Brian Hoyer 61 (NR)
14. Andy Dalton 63 (-3)
15. Kirk Cousins 65 (+2)
16. Aaron Rodgers 67 (+12)
17. Andrew Luck 69 (+3)
18. Tyrod Taylor 69 (-8)
19. Cam Newton 73 (-6)
20. Russell Wilson 79 (+6)
21. Alex Smith 79 (+2)
22. Joe Flacco 84 (+3)
23. Jameis Winston 84 (+8)
24. Ben Roethlisberger 88 (-10)
25. Blaine Gabbert 88 (-1)
26. Carson Palmer 89 (-19)
27. Marcus Mariota 89 (-12)
28. Blake Bortles 98 (-1)
29. Brock Osweiler 104 (+1)
30. Ryan Fitzpatrick 105 (-18)
31. Jay Cutler 106 (+1)
32. Case Keenum 111 (+1)
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Love these Razor, though I feel they aren't really accurate until we've reached about the midway point of the season. Too many variables atm.

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Just for grins and giggles, here's how last season ended:

 

 


 

ULTIMATE CONCUSSION TEST

 

1. Russell Wilson 13

2. Andy Dalton 22
3. Drew Brees 28
4. Kirk Cousins 33 (+3)
5. Tom Brady 35 (-1)
6. Cam Newton 38 (+2)
7. Carson Palmer 40 (-2)
8. Tyrod Taylor 40 (-2)

9. Alex Smith 54
10. Brandon Weeden 57
11. Matt Stafford 58 (+3)

12. Ben Roeth 65 (-1)
13. Philip Rivers 67 (-1)
14. Jay Cutler 68 (-1)
15. AJ McCarron 71 (NR)
16. Eli Manning 77
17. Ryan Fitzy 81 (-2)
18. Tony Romo 85 (+1)
19. Aaron Rodgers 85 (-2)

20. Matt Ryan 91 (+2)
21. Josh McCown 91 (+5)
22. Derek Carr 91 (-4)
23. Jameis Winston 92 (-3)
24. Marcus Mariota 92 (+1)
25. Blaine Gabbert 96 (+3)
26. Brian Hoyer 96 (-2)
27. Teddy Bridge 98 (-6)
28. Joe Flacco 104 (+1)
29. Blake Bortles 105 (-6)
30. Case Keenum 106 (NR)
31. Ryan Tannehill 107 (-1)
32. Sam Bradford 108 (-1)
33. Brock Osweiler 108 (-6)

34. Matt Hasselbeck 119 (-2)
35. Kellen Moore 124 (NR)
36. Colin Kaepernick 127 (-3)
37. Andrew Luck 134 (-1)
38. Johnny Manziel 136 (-4)
39. Ryan Mallett 143 (-4)
40. Peyton Manning 147 (-3)
41. Jimmy Clausen 149 (-3)

42. Zach Metten 158 (-3)
43. Matt Cassel 160 (-3)
44. Nick Foles 161 (-3)

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We're all going down in a boat, with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Aka Ryan Fitzpicksix, Aka Ryan Fraudspatrick, aka there are more than enough puns for Ol' Shitdick, so let's jump off the boat. Matt Ryan's stellar performance keeps him securely at the top, while Jimmy G will be falling off next week once he no longer qualifies for passer rating. Our biggest risers for the week are Russell Wilson after he melted the Jets, and Ben Roethlisberger who cannot be melted by Jet fuel, or the lackadaisical Chiefs defense. Brian Hoyer is still trying to convince us he's a good QB, but I will not be fooled.

 

Our plummeters for the week are Matt Stafford after being handed his ass on a platter by the Bears of all teams, and Ryan Tannehill, whose fall is more a result of just being stuck in the middle of the pack and having a subpar week against the Bengals. Jay Cutler dropped off the list, and Cody Kessler got on the wild ride, placing about where a rookie should be, unlike Wentz and Prescott. This season is weird. Maybe seeing Tom Brady on here in a couple of weeks will make everything make sense again.

 

1. Matt Ryan 11
2. Jimmy Garoppolo 17
3. Derek Carr 29 (+3)
4. Dak Prescott 32 (+4)
5. Philip Rivers 38 (-1)
6. Sam Bradford 39 (+4)
7. Brian Hoyer 39 (+6)
8. Trevor Siemian 41 (-1)
9. Carson Wentz 42
10. Drew Brees 45 (-5)
11. Matt Stafford 55 (-8)
12. Andy Dalton 57 (+2)
13. Russell Wilson 57 (+7)
14. Tyrod Taylor 59 (+4)
15. Ben Roethlisberger 60 (+9)
16. Kirk Cousins 61 (-1)
17. Aaron Rodgers 69 (-1)
18. Ryan Tannehill 73 (-6)
19. Cam Newton 75
20. Andrew Luck 77 (-3)
21. Blaine Gabbert 82 (+4)
22. Eli Manning 86 (-11)
23. Alex Smith 86 (-2)
24. Blake Bortles 88 (+4)
25. Joe Flacco 90 (-3)
26. Cody Kessler 91 (NR)
27. Carson Palmer 92 (-1)
28. Jameis Winston 99 (-5)
29. Case Keenum 101 (+3)
30. Marcus Mariota 103 (-3)
31. Brock Osweiler 103 (-2)
32. Ryan Fitzpatrick 115 (-2)

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Week 5 is in the books. For the first time in a long time, there are no patriots QB's clogging up the top of the list, as Garroppolo fell off on attempts, and Brady hasn't caught up yet. Needless to say, this reprieve will not last long if last week was any indication. The Colts defense willed Brian Hoyer all the way up to second place, and Sam Bradford cosied right up behind him in third. This may be the weirdest top 5 I've seen outside of the first week of a season. No new QB's entered the fray this week, and as such there actually wasn't a lot of flux overall. Roethlisberger is steadily climbing after a rough start to the season, and Marcus Mariota jumped from the bottom of the pack to the middle after torching the Dolphins. Eli Manning is the biggest dropper this week, going down 4 spots after being exposed by the Packers Defense.


1. Matt Ryan 14

2. Brian Hoyer 23 (+5)

3. Sam Bradford 23 (+3)

4. Dak Prescott 26

5. Derek Carr 30 (-2)

6. Philip Rivers 33 (-1)

7. Carson Wentz 34 (+2)

8. Trevor Siemian 39

9. Matt Stafford 40 (+2)

10. Ben Roethlisberger 44 (+5)

11. Drew Brees 44 (-1)


12. Andy Dalton 53

13. Russell Wilson 57

14. Kirk Cousins 61 (+2)

15. Tyrod Taylor 66 (-1)

16. Andrew Luck 68 (+4)

17. Aaron Rodgers 70

18. Cam Newton 72 (+1)

19. Marcus Mariota 79 (+11)

20. Ryan Tannehill 81 (-2)

21. Alex Smith 82 (+2)

22. Blaine Gabbert 84 (-1)

23. Joe Flacco 87 (+2)

24. Blake Bortles 88

25. Cody Kessler 89 (+1)

26. Eli Manning 90 (-4)

27. Carson Palmer 95

28. Jameis Winston 96

29. Case Keenum 97


30. Ryan Fitzpatrick 108 (+2)

31. Brock Osweiler 111


This list is still bound to make some leaps and changes, but I guess it's interesting to see Cherry's Boy ahead of Eli Manning and Carson Palmer even if it's only temporary.

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Brian Hoyer? What?

Thank the Colts stellar defense making him look amazing and keeping the rank high.

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My boy is playing better than Winston, Eli, and Palmer despite having the worst offense in the NFL around him other than maybe LA or Miami. :cigar:

 

Take away the two fucked up snaps that he dove on instantly and he'd be in probably the 75 area.

Edited by 7-9

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Cody hasn't been that bad :coffee: Great completion percentage, sure the YPA could be higher. (6.5) Whatever though, the guy is trash. OL is dog fucking shit.

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Garbage time against the Cowboys for an entire half, then the Lions defense, and then the Colts defense. I'm confident Hoyer will retreat to the middle of the pack once he starts playing defenses worth a damn. Until then, he's the abortion you never knew you needed.

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Phillip Rivers might be one of the biggest wastes of talent ever. When someone plays as well as Rivers does, your team usually has something to show for it. But the Chargers are the Sheriffs of Suckville.

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After watching Ryan Fitzpatrick shit the bad so badly Geno Smith had to come in, I'm really feeling a dark age coming along. Tom Brady is coming to correct the injustices that awful defenses have wrought, but you all will have to wait another week before he claims his throne. Ryan had a rough game against the mighty Seattle defense, but he was able to hold onto his top spot by a smidge. Meanwhile Case Keenum and Drew Brees used the stimulus of cat team defenses to jump way up the list, Brees into the top 5 and Keenum out of the gutter all the way to being ahead of last year's League MVP. Marcus Mariota has also been rapidly ascending the list, going from 30th two weeks ago all the way to 11th place.


Meanwhile Trevor Siemian ends up being our biggest faller, it seems like he's still suffering the effects of his injured shoulder and the effects of a disgustingly bad offensive line. Brian Hoyer is tumbling as well, having faced off against a defense that isn't complete shit. Ryan Fitzpatrick now officially owns the bottom spot, and if he remains benched the only person likely to kick him off his lofty perch will be his replacement. Because lmaojets.


Week 6 QB Rankings


1. Matt Ryan 18

2. Dak Prescott 20 (+2)

3. Sam Bradford 22

4. Drew Brees 26 (+7)

5. Matt Stafford 27 (+4)


6. Philip Rivers 37

7. Brian Hoyer 38 (-5)

8. Derek Carr 38 (-3)

9. Andy Dalton 45 (+3)

10. Carson Wentz 53 (-3)

11 Marcus Mariota 54 (+8)

12. Russell Wilson 55 (+1)

13. Tyrod Taylor 57 (+2)

14. Ben Roethlisberger 59 (-4)

15. Kirk Cousins 61 (-1)

16. Trevor Siemian 63 (-8)

17. Andrew Luck 68 (-1)

18. Alex Smith 73 (+3)

19. Aaron Rodgers 75 (-2)

20. Ryan Tannehill 77

21. Case Keenum 79 (+8)

22. Cam Newton 79 (-4)

23. Eli Manning 83 (+3)

24. Cody Kessler 83 (+1)

25. Blaine Gabbert 85 (-3)

26. Blake Bortles 89 (-2)

27. Carson Palmer 96

28. Joe Flacco 97 (-5)

29. Jameis Winston 100 (-1)


30. Brock Osweiler 109 (+1)

31. Ryan Fitzpatrick 118 (-1)

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Week 7 is complete, and the champ is back, and better than ever before. Tom Brady is at the very top in every single parameter. I don't think I've had that happen on these rankings, post week 1. Bow down to your based god, bow down to your automatic MVP winner. It doesn't matter that the Pats went 3-1 without him, Brady is dominating the field right now. As Matt Ryan rediscovers his choke artist nature, he's also starting to fall down the list, getting supplanted by Dakota this week, and certainly more players in the week to come.

 

We had a few players take a big step up this week, Kirk Cousins, Alex Smith, and Andrew Luck all went up in tandem. Cousins played the Lions defense to get his boost, Luck took the Titans to task, and Alex dominated the Saints. It's almost to the point where you can predict a big gain for anyone who plays the Lions or Saints. So Russell Wilson, Brock Osweiler... time to step up. Ok, might be too much to expect for Brock. The ultimate battle of a movable object vs. a stoppable force.

 

Meanwhile the Vikings and Eagles destroyed Wentz and Bradford's rankings, helping both of them tumble down the rankings. Which is good, I was sick of seeing Bradford near the top. We've still got a long season to go, but it's nice to see the way the rankings are crystallizing. And as always, lmao Jets, lmao Texans.

 

Week 7 QB Rankings:

 

1. Tom Brady 4 (NR)
2. Dak Prescott 20
3. Matt Ryan 26 (-2)
4. Drew Brees 27
5. Matt Stafford 31
6. Derek Carr 41 (+2)
7. Brian Hoyer 42
8. Andy Dalton 43 (+1)
9. Philip Rivers 48 (-3)
10. Kirk Cousins 53 (+5)
11. Andrew Luck 57 (+6)
12. Alex Smith 58 (+6)
13. Sam Bradford 59 (-10)
14. Marcus Mariota 60 (-3)
15. Tyrod Taylor 61 (-2)
16. Ben Roethlisberger 62 (-2)
17. Russell Wilson 62 (-5)
18. Trevor Siemian 69 (-2)
19. Ryan Tannehill 72 (+1)
20. Aaron Rodgers 74 (-1)
21. Carson Wentz 75 (-11)
22. Eli Manning 80 (+1)
23. Cody Kessler 80 (+1)
24. Cam Newton 81 (-2)
25. Blaine Gabbert 87
26. Case Keenum 98 (-5)
27. Jameis Winston 98 (+2)
28. Carson Palmer 100 (-1)
29. Blake Bortles 103 (-3)
30. Joe Flacco 103 (-2)
31. Ryan Fitzpatrick 119
32. Brock Osweiler 119 (-2)

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Why didn't the Steelers just stop Th*mas br*dy then?

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Week 7 QB Rankings:

 

20. Aaron Rodgers 74 (-1)

21. Carson Wentz 75 (-11)

22. Eli Manning 80 (+1)

23. Cody Kessler 80 (+1)

24. Cam Newton 81 (-2)

25. Blaine Gabbert 87

26. Case Keenum 98 (-5)

27. Jameis Winston 98 (+2)

28. Carson Palmer 100 (-1)

29. Blake Bortles 103 (-3)

30. Joe Flacco 103 (-2)

:cigar: Edited by 7-9

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Sorry for the delay everyone, NaNoWriMo takes up a fair portion of my free time. The top 6 or so players have started to secure themselves in the rankings. Tom Brady still holds a stranglehold on first, but the rest of the pack is certainly poised to take over when T*m slips up. You could probably put any name in that top 6 as a legitimate MVP candidate, and no other player because they don't give MVPs to Von Miller, he just sacks the shit out of them.

 

The big risers for this week are Marcus Mariota and Kirk Cousins, who after beating up some cat teams find their way into the top ten. Congrats. Ben Roethlisberger moved up four places on a week, and Aaron Rodgers seems to have found his lost groove after putting on a clinic against the Falcons. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Dak met the Philly defense and fell a little bit, Sam Bradford was who we thought he was and is plummeting after a loss to the Bears, and lastly Philip Rivers got beaten by the vicissitudes of fate, whims, and the Denver defense,dropping all the way to the middle of the pack. Oh, and against the stimulus package that is the Lions defense, Brock Osweiler stayed firmly in last place. The Texans still won though... so really nobody comes out that exchange happy.

 

1. Tom Brady 4
2. Matt Ryan 17 (+1)
3. Drew Brees 24 (+1)
4. Dak Prescott 30 (-2)
5. Matt Stafford 32
6. Derek Carr 33
7. Andy Dalton 41 (+1)
8. Brian Hoyer 43
9. Marcus Mariota 49 (+5)
10. Kirk Cousins 52 (+5)
11. Alex Smith 58 (+1)
12. Ben Roethlisberger 59 (+4)
13. Andrew Luck 60 (-2)
14. Aaron Rodgers 62 (+6)
15. Russell Wilson 65 (+2)
16. Tyrod Taylor 65 (-1)
17. Philip Rivers 69 (-8)
18. Sam Bradford 69 (-5)
19. Ryan Tannehill 77
20. Carson Wentz 77 (+1)
21. Trevor Siemian 79 (-3)
22. Cam Newton 79 (+2)
23. Cody Kessler 80
24. Eli Manning 82 (-2)
25. Blaine Gabbert 87
26. Blake Bortles 90 (+3)
27. Carson Palmer 97 (+1)
28. Case Keenum 97 (-2)
29. Jameis Winston 98 (-2)
30. Joe Flacco 101
31. Ryan Fitzpatrick 117
32. Brock Osweiler 119

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Uh, I don't have a great writeup this time. Sorry folks. Dedicating my time to Nano, so here are the numbers. I may edit this later, but don't count on it.


Week 9 Rankings


1. Tom Brady 4

2. Matt Ryan 17

3. Drew Brees 21

4. Dak Prescott 24


5. Derek Carr 36 (+1)

6. Matt Stafford 40 (-1)

7. Andy Dalton 42

8. Brian Hoyer 46

9. Kirk Cousins 48 (+1)

10. Marcus Mariota 54 (-1)

11. Philip Rivers 57 (+6)

12. Russell Wilson 59 (+3)

13. Alex Smith 60 (-2)

14. Andrew Luck 63 (-1)

15. Aaron Rodgers 63 (-1)

16. Tyrod Taylor 64

17. Sam Bradford 65 (+1)


18. Ryan Tannehill 76 (+1)

19. Ben Roethlisberger 76 (-7)

20. Cam Newton 76 (+2)

21. Cody Kessler 78 (+2)

22. Eli Manning 79 (+2)

23. Trevor Siemian 84 (-2)

24. Blaine Gabbert 89 (+1)

25. Blake Bortles 91 (+1)

26. Carson Wentz 92 (-6)

27. Colin Kaepernick 94 (NR)

28. Jameis Winston 94 (+1)

29. Carson Palmer 98 (-2)

30. Case Keenum 104 (-2)

31. Joe Flacco 104 (-1)


32. Ryan Fitzpatrick 123 (-1)

33. Brock Osweiler 123 (-1)

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Huh, I forgot a week entirely... welp. The changes below reflect two weeks worth of time, so the swings may be a bit more noticeable.

 

Week 11 QB Rankings

 

1. Tom Brady
2. Dak Prescott (+2)
3. Matt Ryan (-1)
4. Drew Brees (-1)
5. Derek Carr
6. Matt Stafford
7. Kirk Cousins (+2)
8. Marcus Mariota (+2)
9. Brian Hoyer (-1)
10. Russell Wilson (+2)
11. Aaron Rodgers (+4)
12. Ben Roethlisberger (+7)
13. Andy Dalton (-6)
14. Andrew Luck
15. Sam Bradford (+2)
16. Alex Smith (-3)
17. Ryan Tannehill (+1)
18. Tyrod Taylor (-2)
19. Philip Rivers (-8)
20. Eli Manning (+2)
21. Jameis Winston (+7)
22. Cam Newton (-2)
23. Colin Kaepernick (+4)
24. Trevor Siemian (-1)
25. Cody Kessler (-4)
26. Blaine Gabbert (-2)
27. Blake Bortles (-2)
28. Carson Wentz (-2)
29. Carson Palmer
30. Joe Flacco (+1)
31. Case Keenum (-1)
32. Jay Cutler (NR)
33. Brock Osweiler
34. Josh McCown (NR)
35. Ryan Fitzpatrick (-3)

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