Week 5 In-Game Predictions

[BwareDWare94 723]

There's no need to treat this thread like a pick 'em, but make some predictions about certain events that will happen in games in week 5.

 

1. I hate to do it, but I think Carson Wentz throws his first INT in Detroit, and it'll be Glover Quin who gets it.

 

2. Xavier Rhodes and the Vikings defense will hold DeAndre Hopkins under 75 receiving yards. His size will land him one or two high-yardage receptions, but otherwise he'll be mostly silent.

 

3. Paxton Lynch starts for Denver on Sunday, and plays well.

 

4. Julio Jones torches Talib/Harris yardage-wise, but does not score a touchdown.

 

5. Derek Anderson and Jameis Winston throw 6 TDs and 6 INTs combined on Monday.

 

 

Whatcha got, folks?

Edited October 5, 2016 by BwareDWare94

[Cherry 1,302]

Bware why did you suddenly jump on the Paxton train after viciously attacking it in April?

[BJORN 679]

The Chargers execute 2 to 3 solid quarters of play and then a mixture of lol-worthy incompetent coaching, the Raiders pass rush, and Derek Carr take over and the Chargers lose.

[BwareDWare94 723]

Bware why did you suddenly jump on the Paxton train after viciously attacking it in April?

It was more of the ridiculous idea that he was a better prospect than Carson than me thinking he wasn't good. I think he's a raw, pure potential prospect, but as you predicted, he's looked more pro ready than expected.

 

His greatest fault as a prospect had nothing to do with his abilities. He came from a gimmick offense that in no way prepared him for the next level. He will have severe growing pains if given extended play right now, but on sheer physical ability alone he can shred a defense in a spot start, especially a defense like Atlanta who struggles to rush the passer.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Who thought Lynch was better then Wentz?

[BwareDWare94 723]

Who thought Lynch was better then Wentz?

Cherry

[Cherry 1,302]

It was more of the ridiculous idea that he was a better prospect than Carson than me thinking he wasn't good. I think he's a raw, pure potential prospect, but as you predicted, he's looked more pro ready than expected.

 

His greatest fault as a prospect had nothing to do with his abilities. He came from a gimmick offense that in no way prepared him for the next level. He will have severe growing pains if given extended play right now, but on sheer physical ability alone he can shred a defense in a spot start, especially a defense like Atlanta who struggles to rush the passer.

Carson came out much better mentally than I anticipated. Dude has developed at an absolutely ridiculous pace. He isn't making as many of the poor decisions when under pressure and he is doing much better at not floating the deep ball.

 

I always thought his short to intermediate game was unstoppable when he had a decent amount of time. Fair play to him though, he's been an absolute beast.

 

Yeah the #1 thing I look for in a QB is his ability to go through reads at a great pace. From what I saw Paxton and Wentz were on the same level of that, but Paxton has even better arm talent and was safer with the football. That led to him getting the grade he did.

 

I don't think it's a concern with his ability to go through reads properly or anything. The biggest concern for Kubiak was apparently the dropback. He took too long and it made it tough for the blockers.

[BwareDWare94 723]

I want them both to succeed--don't get me wrong. We just kind of butted heads over who the better prospect was, and while you might think it had nothing to do with it, I maintain that part of the reason you and others viewed Carson with a little bit of apprehension was where he came from. There has been a bigger influx of FCS talent in the NFL over the past 4-5 seasons. An elite prospect at the FCS level is becoming more and more existent all the time. You look at Carson, who is an elite prospect but we won't know if he can be an elite talent until he's played at least 3 seasons. You look at David Johnson, who is already an elite running back. You look at Marcus Williams with the Jets, another NDSU product, who continues to make plays on the ball in his limited snaps. And there are more. NDSU has produced two NFL offensive lineman in the past 3 seasons in Billy Turner and Joe Haeg, both of whom are currently starting, if not for the right reasons. For this upcoming draft, Cooper Kupp and Jake Weineke might be two of the better receiving prospects in all of college football, but both play at FCS schools. I also look at Zach Zenner at RB in Detroit--I think he takes that job over the next few weeks unless he has another freak injury. It's just not that uncommon anymore to find great talent at the Division 1AA level.

 

Back to these two quarterbacks--my concern with Paxton as an immediate starter would be his before-snap reads. I don't know this is definitely true but I've heard he never called a single protection at Memphis. He also was playing in a spread offense where he didn't necessarily have control at the LOS, whereas Carson was acting like an NFL QB in every start he had at the collegiate level, calling audibles and protections. It's not that Paxton can't do these things, but they take time to develop, time he needs. I think Siemian might actually be a safer play right now, especially with how well he was playing before being knocked out this Sunday. Paxton is without a doubt the future, though. Last but not least, I think their arm talent is essentially the same. Can Paxton maybe throw it a bit further? Sure, but you can't convince me that he can make every throw with ease like Carson has already shown. Shit, he looks like he's barely trying when he heaves the ball 40+ yards on his deep passes. The difference in arm strength between them is not significant and will not impact who the better quarterback proves to be.

[Cherry 1,302]

That's where I would largely disagree. When it comes to arm talent I believe Paxton has the better zip on passes and is able to force passes that Carson can't. Carson makes up for that with ridiculous accuracy under 20 yards, but those floaters over the top really do concern me. I know you said he had a few throws in like week 2 and 3 that should've been picked off by the safety if they were playing a little bit better. I think that this streak of no turnovers from Wentz is gonna come to an abrupt end once he faces a defense with decent hands that will pick off those passes over the top. I also think Paxton has the better all-around mechanics though. He doesn't have the accuracy that Wentz does but he doesn't wind up or dick around patting the ball a bunch (Not saying Carson does that, but giving an example.)

 

He sets his feet, drives forward with the pass, and releases it at the very top of his motion. Very tough to find a bigger guy with that kind of power who can hit that motion perfectly. Paxton can make every throw Carson makes and do it even better if you're strictly talking distance & on the target of 1-3 yards. Paxton isn't gonna be throwing floaters. The difference is Paxton puts it on the chest where Carson can put it anywhere he wants.

 

On the topic of bias against a smaller school product. I think a lot of that was media hype bullshit. The media likes to make storylines for prospects that simply don't fit their actual talent level. Anyone who turned on the tape could tell you that Carson Wentz was a high level prospect. I had him graded as a second rounder because of concerns with how he handles D-line pressure or that problem with inconsistent deep balls that float too much, but if you were looking for a potential superstar, he was one of them. If it weren't for Paxton having the arm of the son of God, I'd have likely put Wentz as my highest potential-based QB. (Speaking of that I need to start adding potential as a side-bar to my analysis so I can have some projection rather than just blatant production analysis.)

 

I can guarantee you that I've never put bias into account with any player who was not D1. When I analyse tape I'm not looking at what the prospect is facing or what they are working with. I hone in on what that player alone is doing and see if I believe it will adapt to the pro game. Wentz's grade was solely a product of what Wentz did on tape and what I was taking out of it. If I can get the proper tools I may try to find a way to video myself breaking down tape on guys TGP might be interested in. It's easier than taking photos and trying to prove a point through photos and long descriptions.

Edited October 5, 2016 by 7-9

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Ah... The Kessler guy. Nvm. Lol.

[Cherry 1,302]

Ah... The Kessler guy. Nvm. Lol.

 

Ah... The Dri Archer guy. We can do this shit back and forth all day. If I miss on a prospect I'll admit to missing on a prospect. If I hit on a prospect I'll brag my ass off about it. Kessler was supposed to be a 7th rounder or UDFA, and I hit that shit perfectly.

 

 

Kessler has been doing pretty solid with the worst team in pro football. I never touted him as a HOF quarterback or pretended he would develop into an unstoppable player. Coming out of college he looked like a mid level starting quarterback with a shit arm but great ability to go through reads and handle pocket pressure. Has he not been essentially exactly what I said he would? Fuck, he's impressed me with some deep throws I didn't think he could make.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

I'm not knocking you for thinking a guy will do well in the league.

 

It's just pretty obvious at this point based on your rankings from last off season that we don't agree on evaluations, and what's actually showing up on clips.

 

Hence, "the Kessler guy".

[Cherry 1,302]

I'm not knocking you for thinking a guy will do well in the league.

 

It's just pretty obvious at this point based on your rankings from last off season that we don't agree on evaluations, and what's actually showing up on clips.

 

Hence, "the Kessler guy".

Fair enough. You're more of a fan of physical talent and potential when scouting whereas I'm strictly going on more technical aspects. We look for different qualities when we look at players.

 

I took your Kessler guy comment as a bit condescending is all.

 

That's why I hope I can figure out a way to get videos of film breakdown where I can highlight what exactly I'm looking at and seeing.

Edited October 5, 2016 by 7-9

[AllYouNeedIsLovie 377]

- OBJ has a huge game on primetime against the Packers

 

- Terrelle Pryor has a passing TD and rushing or receiving TD against the Patriots

 

- Desean Jackson torches the Ravens secondary

[BwareDWare94 723]

Rather than create a huge post by quoting Cherry, I'll explain my potential interceptions that Carson has thrown. One was a quick go route that didn't even qualify as a deep ball, but he threw it into triple coverage but put enough on it to overthrow everybody. May have been just been a chance taken on third down that he knew he'd probably overthrow, I dunno. The other one I'm talking about was, I think, to his right where he threw one pass he shouldn't have. The floaters I'm talking about aren't deep balls, they're generally passes across the middle that sail high on him, and I've only seen one this season and it was way over everybody. His deep balls haven't had a chance to be picked yet. Dat ball placement.

 

One more thing about Wentz, and this is related to media discussion, not anything Cherry or any other poster has said--the low yards per completion average is not a product of the system he's running--it's a product of countless drops on longer throws. If his receivers catch 80% of their drops, his yards per completion is probably above league average.

 

On Paxton--I see as much or maybe even more zip on Carson's passes when he throws them with velocity. Carson is advanced when it comes to situational velocity, and if he doesn't have to throw a bullet, he throws a very catchable ball. I haven't seen enough of Lynch to know if he's good at that, too. I don't see much difference in arm talent, if any, but that's my evaluation. Let's see what Lynch can do if Siemian is out on Sunday. Like I said, I think he'll shred a poor pass-rushing team in a spot start. He definitely needs to sit before he's the starter for the foreseeable future, though.

Edited October 5, 2016 by BwareDWare94

[Cherry 1,302]

He had issues with both deep balls and floaters over the middle in college. His deep ball accuracy is better as a pro though. I don't have as much an issue with bad deep balls because most of his deep misses were overthrown not underthrown. The floaters over the middle were what concerned me. That's what makes me worry.

 

Yeah I agree. Wentz doesn't have quite the same zip on the ball as Paxton does IMO, but Wentz understands situational velocity better. Paxton can throw soft, sure, but Wentz could probably throw more over the course of the game because he paces his arm and never tries to kill a HB in the flat with the pass. His ability to through at different speeds with the accuracy he does makes him an absolute terror as an opposing DB.

 

Tbh I don't give too many shits about YPA or YPC. If a QB is efficient with completing the ball and moving the chains he can take as long as he likes to move it up the field.

[ATL_Predator+ 1,196]

Amari Cooper goes for 200 yards against the Chargers

 

Derek Carr throws for 300/4 TD's/perfect passer rating

 

Chargers fire Mike McCoy after the game.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Tom Brady gets sacked 4 times this week.

The Cardinals will be down another QB after this week.

Alfred Morris outgains Ezekiel Elliot in rushing yards.

The chargers have another player tear their ACL this week.

[Wentz World 5]

Kessler is sacked 5 times. Brady throws 4 touchdowns. 3 of them are to Edelman

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

This Sunday is the day... The Lions will are going to get that W. I believe it.

[BwareDWare94 723]

Zach Zenner gets most of the carries for Detroit this Sunday