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seanbrock

Predict A Super Bowl Winner

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Wild Card Round

 

Washington > Seattle

Green Bay > New York

 

Houston > Oakland

Pittsburgh > Miami

 

Divisional Round

 

Washington > Dallas

Green Bay > Atlanta

 

New England > Houston

Kansas City > Pittsburgh

 

Conference Championship Games

 

Green Bay > Washington

 

New England > Kansas City

 

Super Bowl

 

Green Bay > New England

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If you were curious what the chances each team would get a certain seed, I've got something for you. This is making the assumption that games are 50-50 affairs, even though that's not really true.

 

AFC

New England (1 Seed in 75% of scenarios, 2 Seed in 25%)

Oakland (1 seed in 25%, 2 seed in 50%, 5 seed in 25%)

Pittsburgh (Locked in 3 Seed)

Houston (Locked in 4 Seed)

Kansas City (2 seed in 25%, 5 seed in 50%, 6 seed in 25%)

Miami (5 seed in 25%, 6 seed in 75%)

 

That was easy, here's the NFC.

 

Dallas (Locked in 1 Seed)

Atlanta (2 Seed in 62.5% of scenarios, 3 seed in 25% of scenarios, 4 seed in 12.5% of scenarios)

Seattle (2 Seed in 25% of scenarios, 3 seed in 25% of scenarios, 4 seed in 50% of scenarios)

Detroit (2 seed in 12.5% of scenarios, 3 seed in 25%, 4 seed in 12.5%, 6 seed in 25%, Out in 25%)

Green Bay (3 seed in 25% of scenarios, 4 seed in 25%, 6 seed in 25%, Out in 25%)

New York Giants (Locked in at 5 seed)

Washington (6 seed in 50% of scenarios, out in 50% of scenarios) (A tie in the Detroit Green Bay would put them out regardless of their result)

 

Tampa Bay ~0.001% chance of making the 6th Seed (Need 7 different things to happen, including a tie in the Giants/Skins game)

 

Here's a link of the permutations without ties in consideration: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KuKgZSKhHCV20xtvySMTvskxttUCbZPHiKXRJ0ZLjWU/edit?usp=sharing

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Anyway, let's do this live.

 

 

Wild Card Round:

Miami > Pittsburgh

Kansas City > Houston

 

Washington > Seattle

New York > Green Bay

 

Divisional Round:

Oakland > Miami

New England > Kansas City

 

Dallas > Washington

New York > Atlanta

 

Conference Championships:

New England > Oakland

New York > Dallas

 

Superb Owl 51:

New York > New England

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If you're picking anybody but the Cowboys and Patriots, you either:

 

A) haven't watched football this year, or

B) are trying hard to make a unique prediction.

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If you're picking anybody but the Cowboys and Patriots, you either:

 

A) haven't watched football this year, or

B) are trying hard to make a unique prediction.

Dallas is starting a rookie QB and their defense isn't that good. New England also has let go of a lot of good defensive talent and is not untouchable.

  • Upvote 1

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I'm not quite ready to pick yet but here is my two cents right now:

 

I do not care what anyone says. If you let Eli with a good defense or an on fire Aaron Rodgers into the playoffs....any thing can happen in the NFC.

 

I'm not counting out the Raiders either. McGloin has shown in the past that he can sling it. If he is on, they could still be a very scary team to face. Same with the Steelers, if Big Ben starts playing better, they could be unstoppable.

Edited by BJOSA

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Dallas is starting a rookie QB and their defense isn't that good. New England also has let go of a lot of good defensive talent and is not untouchable.

Last night I was shocked to hear we had the #1 run defense in the NFL. I'm sure that's changed now since we let Zach fucking Zenner run all over us.

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If you're picking anybody but the Cowboys and Patriots, you either:

 

A) haven't watched football this year, or

B) are trying hard to make a unique prediction.

 

The G-men beat them twice. They have a rookie QB. To think Dallas will get taken out by GB or NYG or SEA (on a good day) is really not that hard to believe.

 

Anywho, on topic:

 

SB 51 winner: :Pats: > :Packers:

 

We finally get the Brady vs Rodgers matchup we've deserved for a long while.

Edited by Thanatos

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Redskins making the NFCCG is a nightmare scenario.

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Nobody is going to like it, but it is what it is. The Packers will be very closely eliminated in a three horse race.

 

:Pats: > :Cowboys:

 

:(

Edited by BC

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Pats > Falcons

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