I am not saying Drew Brees is bad or that he isn't good. He deserves some amount of respect. That amount though is what I debate.
Brees' whole career is a set of perfect circumstances for HIM to succeed. Yes, that has sacrificed his teams success and the number of SB he has won, but it's allowed him to be put on a pedestal -- which I think he enjoys more anyway. He's done a lot of good in the community so I don't discredit that but I think he also likes to talk about how awesome he is. Ask him what his shit smells like, I bet he says roses.
The Chargers had guys like LT maybe the best RB, Lorenzo Neal maybe the best FB, Antonio Gates... Wide Receivers who weren't world beaters but David Boston was an All=Pro before joining Brees. Keenan McCardell was a solid and consistent contributor...
That was an all-around offense with weapons. and Brees left there being very luke-warm. He had a solid 2004, but otherwise 4 very forgetful years.
And does any QB throw to RBs more than Drew fucking Brees?
% of Completion% to RB/FB // % of Yards to RB/FB // % of TDs to RB/FB
2002 - 44% // 21%y // 24%t
2003 - 40% (Full Disclosure, Doug Flutie started five games and had like 90 completions)
2004 - 25% // 16% // 3%
2005 - 23% // 14% // 11%
2006 (Saints) - 42% // 27% // 19%
2007 - 33%
2009 - 28% (SB, Mark Brunell completed 15 passes)
2010 - 25% (Note: Saints go very TE heavy with Graham, Shockey & Thomas. Total NonWR % = 50% of Brees' completions)
2011 - 33%
2012 - 33%
2013 - 38%
2014 - 29%
2015 - 28% (McCown, 32 comp.)
2016 - 27%
Career - 32% // 20% // 14%
A. Rodgers, Last 5 Years
2016 -20% (A majority of this was throws to Montgomery before he switched to WR, but because I was too lazy to separate Flutie, i will do the same here)
27% // 14% // 11%
17% (Packers Started 4 QBs this year, Rodgers only started 9. My laziness, etc, etc.)
2012 - 14% // 10% // 0%
Avg - 20% // 12% // 6%
T. Brady, Last 5 Years
2016 - 24% (Brady missed 4 games, Suck my dick, etc)
26% // 22% // 25%
2012 - 14% // 16% // 12%
Avg - 21% // 18% // 13.5%
B. Roethlisberger "
2016 - 26% // 19% // 12%
17% // 11% // 0% (Ben missed 5 games, eat it)
2012 - 22% (Ben missed 3 games. Also note, the other 4 years, the Steelers had arguably the best RB in football, and they remained relatively consistent)
Avg - 22% // 15% // 6%
2015 - 15% (Peyton started half the year and his arm didn't even work)
2010 (Colts) - 13% // 9% // 0%
Avg - 16%
Peyton Early Years (Because guys like Faulk and Edge can skew stats but so do Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne I suppose)
Rookie - 31% // 26% // 19%
2003 - 21%
Avg - 22%
Overall Avg P. Manning - 5 first and 5 last - 19% // 17.5% // 9.5%
And I think Brees is lucky that I didn't include TEs, because he may throw to more nonWRs than any QB in history. And we wonder why he can pile the stats on so much.. His completion percentage is ridiculous year after year because he's making high percentage throws for easy guaranteed yardage a lot of the time. Brady may give him a bit of a run in a few years but not overall.
I looked at 25 years other than Brees of some of the best QBs in the league today and in history... Only 6 years, combined, did Manning / Roeth / Brady / Rodgers surpass Brees' LOW mark of 23%. And really the only single year of the 25 that comes close to Brees' average was Peyton's awful rookie year with Marshall Faulk in the backfield.
And Sean brought it up, but.. He mentioned Sean Payton is no more than a glorified offensive coordinator. Isn't that every QBs dream? What more did Drew Brees need to be successful on an individual basis? What could have made it even easier for him? Yes. Not much and not much.
Maybe you are going to argue he never had a Marvin Harrison.. But he's had talent at WR and it doesn't matter what they would do in other offenses. In that offense, they did succeed and could have succeeded even more.. But going to WRs more means lower percentage throws which means lower numbers for Brees and thus a hit to his legacy.
Which brings me to my next point...
Drew Brees has thrown for 465 TD and 220 INT -- very close to a 2:1 ratio... Why in the hell does a QB who completes 1/3 of all of his passes to RB have a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. You throw more high completion throws than any of the greats... Yet you still turn the ball over a ridiculous amount in comparison.
A. Rodgers - 297:72 (~4:1)
T. Brady - 456:152 (3:1)
B. Roethlisberger - 301:160 (~1.9:1)
P. Manning - 539:251 (2.1:1)
Imagine if Drew Brees completed 10-13% fewer passes to his RBs, his INT numbers would be even more insane -- undoubtedly.
Payton may be a glorified offensive coordinator, but it is exactly what has made Brees thrive.
Not to mention, imagine playing in New Orleans... You play in 8 home dome games a year guaranteed. Then you have one guaranteed dome game on the road in Atlanta. A pretty seasonal, usually not terrible game in Carolina and a probably 95% gorgeous outdoors game in Tampa. 10 of his 16 games a year are in ideal or slightly less than ideal. Even before New Orleans... He was in fucking San Diego, lol.
Ya, Peyton played in a dome for a long time and had a reputation in cold games.. But the other three...? Play outside... in winter... every year.
Thus, regardless of where Brees has played.. Whether its indoors or outdoors, in a dome or not... The weather is very often on his side. Setting the stage for all those great patented screens.
If Brees threw to a nonRB on the norm of the other QBs I looked at, he'd have roughly 200-300 more incomplete passes, which drops him from 1st in completion percentage to somewhere between 11th and 14th...
He throws about 1 INT for 17.5 completions to a nonRB currently...If he increased his number of completions to nonRB to match those of players above not named Brees, he'd have thrown roughly 752 more completions to nonRB which means an extra 43 INT which would then put his TD:INT ratio to 1.77:1, easily the worst of the 5 QBs I looked at.
His passer rating factoring in the lower completion percentage and more INT but assuming the same number of TDs and Yards drops 5 points to roughly 91.4.... Rodgers 104.1. Brady 97.2. Roeth 94.1. Manning 96.5... This moves him to 13th all time... right above Andy Dalton, Chad Pennington, and Matt Schaub.
I was kind of curious so I looked at TD and Yardage%... It's 4am and I am not looking for super official stats, but rather rough estimates, so I took Brees' 2 best and worst years of his completion% to RB and looked at % of yards and % of TD to RB, then averaged them.. Did the others QBs high and low and averaged for career. Ya, it's very rough and bad sample size but this part of the post is mostly for fun and just a general idea to give us a range of extremes...
At worst, Brees would lose 8% of his TDs and 8% of his yards, falling to Aaron's norm. If he's throwing less to the RBs of course he'd regain some of these TDs and yards throwing to TEs or WR but again.. I'm looking for a bottom out figure so...-5288 yards (350/yr) and -37 TD (2.3/yr)..
Drew"I Love The Screen Game As Much and Not More Than Other Elite QBs" Brees
63.2% Completion (-3.4%) [From 1st to 11th/14th All-Time]
60823 Yards (-5288)
6.9 YPA (-0.6)
428 TD (-37)
263 INT (+43)
87.5 Rating (-8.8) [From 7th All-Time to 20th, Tied with Jeff Garcia]
1.63 TD:INT Ratio (-0.47) [From 9th All-Time to 27th, right behind David Garrard]
Reality is obviously somewhere in between both, but even still...
Relative to other great QBs, Brees gets to read defenses less, beat coverage less, throw into tight windows less, have to manipulate defenses less, has to rely on a great arm / great throw / great mechanics less. has to play in less than ideal weather conditions less...
Overall, Drew Brees has to play the QB position less than most of his counter-parts. Especially the great ones.
Edited by Favre4Ever, 30 January 2017 - 05:33 AM.