The Saints

[seanbrock 1,684]

Since winning the Super Bowl in 2011 The Saints have not had a winning season. It's no secret why either The Saints defense has been absolutely awful ever since they brought home the franchises first Super Bowl. In a shout box discussion Razor and I researched how many wins Brees has in his career in he put up fewer than 25 points and it was staggeringly low. Since the Saints won the Super Bowl they've been top 2 in total offense every year except in 2013 in which they were 4th. They've lead twice. They've also been top 10 in scoring every single year during that span.

 

What I'm getting at here is that it's pretty unacceptable to have a top 10 all time QB at minimum who's putting up yards and points at historical rates without ever having a consistent running or even very many good receivers outside of an overrated Jimmy Graham (thanatos was right after all) and an inconsistent Brandon Cooks and Marques Colston who I really don't think would have done anything close to what he's done on most teams. He did have Sproles but due to his size the amount he can be used is limited.

 

Who's to blame? At this point would Sean Payton still even have a job if it weren't for Drew Brees? Payton looks to be a glorified offensive coordinator at this point and really, would they even skip a beat offensively without him considering they have Brees? I think at the very least the Saints clearly need a new GM. How can you field that bad of a defense for 5 years straight and still keep your job? The Saints are running out of time to realistically make a super bowl run. Hell, they might have already run out of time because Brees is pretty old by NFL standards and he might not have anything left in the tank by the time a better GM/HC would realistically be able to field a defense that's even competitive. Disgraceful.

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

Shit, this is the argument I've been making since 2011 or so? Brees is probably one of the top 5 QBs of all time, but his defenses have been such shit that he'll never be mentioned in the upper echelon for lack of rings.

 

tbh I think it's a foregone conclusion unless they can have another season where their D causes enough havoc and turnovers to make a splash.

Edited January 27, 2017 by Zack_of_Steel

[seanbrock 1,684]

Yeah, I mean, it's obvious that Brees is held back by his defense but what I can't figure out is how management or coaching hasn't changed. I mean, Mickey Loomis is fucking awful. He's like, Grigson level bad.

[.AirMcNair. 1,232]

The Saints won the superbowl in 2009, and made the playoffs 3 out of the next 4 years after that(the one season they didn't was the bountygate season).

 

They've went 7-9 3 seasons in a row though.

[Sarge+ 3,436]

Saints are bad at drafting defense. What other explanation is there?

 

Yes Brees makes a lot of money, but you don't even need a good defense to win with him. Just an OK one. You mean to tell me the Saints couldn't get a small handful of decent guys this entire time on defense? Good young talent is affordable when you draft well. Obviously they don't/haven't.

 

So in that sense, yes, something has to change. 7-9 three years in a row with a QB as good as Brees is pathetic.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Brees might go down as one of the most overrated players in NFL History -- and it's comments like the one Zack left that prove it.

[BwareDWare94 723]

I absolutely love that New Orleans is terrible, and I hope they stay that way. It's just too bad Brees doesn't seem to have a way out for the end of his career.

[Milla4Prez63 678]

The Saints have the worst roster in the NFC South for sure, but Brees is good enough to keep them close to being .500

[seanbrock 1,684]

Brees might go down as one of the most overrated players in NFL History -- and it's comments like the one Zack left that prove it.

What makes you say that?

[Sarge+ 3,436]

JD is a notorious Brees hater.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

I am not saying Drew Brees is bad or that he isn't good. He deserves some amount of respect. That amount though is what I debate.

 

Brees' whole career is a set of perfect circumstances for HIM to succeed. Yes, that has sacrificed his teams success and the number of SB he has won, but it's allowed him to be put on a pedestal -- which I think he enjoys more anyway. He's done a lot of good in the community so I don't discredit that but I think he also likes to talk about how awesome he is. Ask him what his shit smells like, I bet he says roses.

 

The Chargers had guys like LT maybe the best RB, Lorenzo Neal maybe the best FB, Antonio Gates... Wide Receivers who weren't world beaters but David Boston was an All=Pro before joining Brees. Keenan McCardell was a solid and consistent contributor...

 

That was an all-around offense with weapons. and Brees left there being very luke-warm. He had a solid 2004, but otherwise 4 very forgetful years.

 

And does any QB throw to RBs more than Drew fucking Brees?

 

% of Completion% to RB/FB // % of Yards to RB/FB // % of TDs to RB/FB

2002 - 44% // 21%y // 24%t
2003 - 40% (Full Disclosure, Doug Flutie started five games and had like 90 completions)

2004 - 25% // 16% // 3%

2005 - 23% // 14% // 11%

2006 (Saints) - 42% // 27% // 19%

2007 - 33%

2008- 30%

2009 - 28% (SB, Mark Brunell completed 15 passes)

2010 - 25% (Note: Saints go very TE heavy with Graham, Shockey & Thomas. Total NonWR % = 50% of Brees' completions)

2011 - 33%

2012 - 33%

2013 - 38%

2014 - 29%

2015 - 28% (McCown, 32 comp.)
2016 - 27%

Career - 32% // 20% // 14%

 

 

A. Rodgers, Last 5 Years

2016 -20% (A majority of this was throws to Montgomery before he switched to WR, but because I was too lazy to separate Flutie, i will do the same here)

20%

27% // 14% // 11%

17% (Packers Started 4 QBs this year, Rodgers only started 9. My laziness, etc, etc.)

2012 - 14% // 10% // 0%

Avg - 20% // 12% // 6%

 

T. Brady, Last 5 Years

2016 - 24% (Brady missed 4 games, Suck my dick, etc)

26% // 22% // 25%

18%

22%

2012 - 14% // 16% // 12%

Avg - 21% // 18% // 13.5%

 

B. Roethlisberger "

2016 - 26% // 19% // 12%

17% // 11% // 0% (Ben missed 5 games, eat it)

25%

20%

2012 - 22% (Ben missed 3 games. Also note, the other 4 years, the Steelers had arguably the best RB in football, and they remained relatively consistent)
Avg - 22% // 15% // 6%

 

P. Manning

2015 - 15% (Peyton started half the year and his arm didn't even work)

17%

20%

16%

2010 (Colts) - 13% // 9% // 0%

Avg - 16%

 

Peyton Early Years (Because guys like Faulk and Edge can skew stats but so do Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne I suppose)

Rookie - 31% // 26% // 19%

21%

17%

21%

2003 - 21%

Avg - 22%

Overall Avg P. Manning - 5 first and 5 last - 19% // 17.5% // 9.5%

 

And I think Brees is lucky that I didn't include TEs, because he may throw to more nonWRs than any QB in history. And we wonder why he can pile the stats on so much.. His completion percentage is ridiculous year after year because he's making high percentage throws for easy guaranteed yardage a lot of the time. Brady may give him a bit of a run in a few years but not overall.

 

I looked at 25 years other than Brees of some of the best QBs in the league today and in history... Only 6 years, combined, did Manning / Roeth / Brady / Rodgers surpass Brees' LOW mark of 23%. And really the only single year of the 25 that comes close to Brees' average was Peyton's awful rookie year with Marshall Faulk in the backfield.

 

And Sean brought it up, but.. He mentioned Sean Payton is no more than a glorified offensive coordinator. Isn't that every QBs dream? What more did Drew Brees need to be successful on an individual basis? What could have made it even easier for him? Yes. Not much and not much.

 

Maybe you are going to argue he never had a Marvin Harrison.. But he's had talent at WR and it doesn't matter what they would do in other offenses. In that offense, they did succeed and could have succeeded even more.. But going to WRs more means lower percentage throws which means lower numbers for Brees and thus a hit to his legacy.

Which brings me to my next point...

 

Drew Brees has thrown for 465 TD and 220 INT -- very close to a 2:1 ratio... Why in the hell does a QB who completes 1/3 of all of his passes to RB have a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. You throw more high completion throws than any of the greats... Yet you still turn the ball over a ridiculous amount in comparison.

 

A. Rodgers - 297:72 (~4:1)
T. Brady - 456:152 (3:1)

B. Roethlisberger - 301:160 (~1.9:1)

P. Manning - 539:251 (2.1:1)

 

Imagine if Drew Brees completed 10-13% fewer passes to his RBs, his INT numbers would be even more insane -- undoubtedly.

 

Payton may be a glorified offensive coordinator, but it is exactly what has made Brees thrive.

 

Not to mention, imagine playing in New Orleans... You play in 8 home dome games a year guaranteed. Then you have one guaranteed dome game on the road in Atlanta. A pretty seasonal, usually not terrible game in Carolina and a probably 95% gorgeous outdoors game in Tampa. 10 of his 16 games a year are in ideal or slightly less than ideal. Even before New Orleans... He was in fucking San Diego, lol.

 

Ya, Peyton played in a dome for a long time and had a reputation in cold games.. But the other three...? Play outside... in winter... every year.

 

Thus, regardless of where Brees has played.. Whether its indoors or outdoors, in a dome or not... The weather is very often on his side. Setting the stage for all those great patented screens.

 

EDIT:

Theory Crafting

 

If Brees threw to a nonRB on the norm of the other QBs I looked at, he'd have roughly 200-300 more incomplete passes, which drops him from 1st in completion percentage to somewhere between 11th and 14th...

 

He throws about 1 INT for 17.5 completions to a nonRB currently...If he increased his number of completions to nonRB to match those of players above not named Brees, he'd have thrown roughly 752 more completions to nonRB which means an extra 43 INT which would then put his TD:INT ratio to 1.77:1, easily the worst of the 5 QBs I looked at.

 

His passer rating factoring in the lower completion percentage and more INT but assuming the same number of TDs and Yards drops 5 points to roughly 91.4.... Rodgers 104.1. Brady 97.2. Roeth 94.1. Manning 96.5... This moves him to 13th all time... right above Andy Dalton, Chad Pennington, and Matt Schaub.

 

EDIT 2:

I was kind of curious so I looked at TD and Yardage%... It's 4am and I am not looking for super official stats, but rather rough estimates, so I took Brees' 2 best and worst years of his completion% to RB and looked at % of yards and % of TD to RB, then averaged them.. Did the others QBs high and low and averaged for career. Ya, it's very rough and bad sample size but this part of the post is mostly for fun and just a general idea to give us a range of extremes...

 

At worst, Brees would lose 8% of his TDs and 8% of his yards, falling to Aaron's norm. If he's throwing less to the RBs of course he'd regain some of these TDs and yards throwing to TEs or WR but again.. I'm looking for a bottom out figure so...-5288 yards (350/yr) and -37 TD (2.3/yr)..

 

Drew"I Love The Screen Game As Much and Not More Than Other Elite QBs" Brees

63.2% Completion (-3.4%) [From 1st to 11th/14th All-Time]

60823 Yards (-5288)

6.9 YPA (-0.6)

428 TD (-37)
263 INT (+43)

87.5 Rating (-8.8) [From 7th All-Time to 20th, Tied with Jeff Garcia]
1.63 TD:INT Ratio (-0.47) [From 9th All-Time to 27th, right behind David Garrard]

 

Reality is obviously somewhere in between both, but even still...

 

 

TL:DR Version

Relative to other great QBs, Brees gets to read defenses less, beat coverage less, throw into tight windows less, have to manipulate defenses less, has to rely on a great arm / great throw / great mechanics less. has to play in less than ideal weather conditions less...

 

Overall, Drew Brees has to play the QB position less than most of his counter-parts. Especially the great ones.

Edited January 30, 2017 by Favre4Ever

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

He has meh receivers and spreads the damned ball around but fuck him, okay?

Edited January 30, 2017 by Zack_of_Steel

[RazorStar 4,025]

Rivera, what does the scouter say about his passing yards?

 

IT'S OVER 5000!

 

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

He has meh receivers and spreads the damned ball around but fuck him, okay?

 

Does Drew Brees want GREAT WRs? I doubt it... There is a long history of utilizing his backs and TEs in the passing game, because he and Sean Payton (and Cam Cameron) know that that is how they are most efficient. They look for the guys who can catch out of the backfield and for TEs who can run and catch because they know that is what they are going to utilize.

 

If that weren't the case, there wouldn't be 15 years of precedent and it'd be a one off with a single guy... Not LT, Neal, Gates.... Graham, Bush, Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Jeremy Shockey, David Thomas. A truly great WR on the Saints would be a complete waste of talent, because he wouldn't be utilized. Although guys like Marques Colston shouldn't be underrated. Six 1000 yard seasons in seven years is so "meh". lol

 

And by spreading the ball around, I hope you mean... Consciously throwing to backs and TEs more because his mind and skill set don't compare to other great players, then yes.. he spreads the ball around A LOT.

 

And I don't blame Brees for falling back on RBs and TEs more, because you need to cater to what a guy can do and what he is good at... but it's considerably easier throwing to a RB or TE who, very often has a GREAT matchup. Drew Brees' typical target was lined up on a LB or S in coverage... Guys who were either too slow or too small to take down Brees' target.

 

Again, that's not a diss... But we have to realize him for who he is and not put him on a pedestal with the best in history.

Edited January 30, 2017 by Favre4Ever

[Sarge+ 3,436]

I don't think your argument makes sense, but I'm going to try to understand it.

 

You are saying Brees isn't as good as other QB's because he takes advantage of the match-ups he sees?

 

I'm sorry. I must be mistaken. Isn't that exactly what a QB is supposed to do? Isn't that called winning?

[oochymp 2,393]

he's also typically had better RBs on his teams than WRs, I want my QB getting the ball to the best players on the field regardless of their position

 

I wouldn't put him top-5 all time (I don't like to do numbers, but since somebody will ask I'll throw out that in no particular order I'd put Brady, P. Manning, Rodgers, Montana, Elway, and Marino over him and that's more than five so I'll stop) but he's definitely in the upper echelon, he's still the only player to record a 5000 yard passing season without a 1000 yard receiver, that's damn impressive regardless of how you spin it

Edited January 30, 2017 by oochymp

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

I don't think your argument makes sense, but I'm going to try to understand it.

 

You are saying Brees isn't as good as other QB's because he takes advantage of the match-ups he sees?

 

I'm sorry. I must be mistaken. Isn't that exactly what a QB is supposed to do? Isn't that called winning?

I said he has it easier than other QBs but I don't fault him for it. Gotta do what you're good at. The easier path, however, doesn't make you a Top 5 player at your position ever.

 

His career and coaches have catered to his individual success. Screw winning.

 

Also I think the fact that counts towards like 25M of the cap speaks volumes. He's a me-first player -- probably better suited to be a WR.

[BJORN 679]

Brees had two WRs with over 1000+ yards this season and Willie Snead was not far off either. He does not have an inversion or is in capable of throwing to WRs, so in my mind I won't punish him for abusing the playmakers he is given.

[seanbrock 1,684]

Ok JD, it's clear you did your homework on this. Great post even though I totally disagree with it. I'll start with your points about his San Diego days. Not every all time great is great right away. Not a knock on Schottenheimer but his offense doesn't exactly lend itself to the kind of cerebral style of play Brees turned his game into. Part of the reason he left on Luke warm terms is that it wasn't even clear he would play again after the injury he suffered and they had a young Phillip Rivers who was eventually going to be the guy, but that injury and his subsequent come back from it is also another thing that made him change his game and ultimately made him a better player.

 

Your point about his salary holding his team back is pretty ridiculous to be honest. Every franchise QB looks to be the highest paid player in the game come contract extension time and many of those QB's teams can at least put a competitive roster around them. I also kind of find it unfounded and a little silly to think he doesn't want a top WR. Sarge kind of put it best, the reason he throws to RB's so much is because he's taking advantage of match ups. Brees' ability to fit passes in tight windows down field is also pretty legendary. I'very never seen anyone do it better. As for the picks, when you have to put 35 points on the board to win games most of your career, you're going to have to take risks.

 

As for Sean Payton, I think if the Saints brought in a defensive guy as HC they could retain their OC and still continue to run the same offense without skipping a beat. There's no doubt though, that Payton's offense is a big part of the numbers. I just think if you bring in a new GM and a defensive HC that the Saints would be way better off. I'm also not sure how much of a factor playing in good weather has because most of the best QB's play out doors in cold weather and are fine.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Brees had two WRs with over 1000+ yards this season and Willie Snead was not far off either. He does not have an inversion or is in capable of throwing to WRs, so in my mind I won't punish him for abusing the playmakers he is given.

 

He very obviously has an aversion to throwing to WR.. Obviously he does it part of the time, ha. The claim wasn't that he doesn't throw to WRs, it's that he throws to them less. And like I mentioned to Zack, "abusing" the playmakers wouldn't be a knocked on trait if it was one guy.. But the teams around Brees make sure to put play makers at RB and TE around Brees because that is what he likes and who he wants to throw to. If you don't think he has an input on that, I think you are loco. He's not a Top 5 QB in history and I think it'd be a stretch to put him in the Top 10.

 

Sean --

 

When I said Drew left San Diego luke-warm, I meant that the resume he had put together up to that point was luke-warm. He wasn't some world-beating QB, even with stunning weapons. I think he had more INT over those 4 years than TDs, lol.

 

And not every QB wants to be the highest paid at the end of their contract.. that's the problem with saying "every". lol. And those other QBs, they sign deals longer than a year so they at least aren't paid every single fucking year at the top because they usually get surpassed and then their salaries even out and lessen cap hits because those deals are usually front-loaded.

 

Drew Brees is signing 1 year 54 million dollar contracts that is absolutely stunting the ability of the Saints to put talent around him. I also don't blame him for wanting his money -- but it's further proof that he is out for himself 100%. He doesn't give a shit about winning titles or games.. As long as he is succeeding individually, that is all Drew Brees cares about.

 

And you are right, most QBs do play outdoors in the cold.. Drew Brees doesn't though -- not consistently. lol

[Sarge+ 3,436]

I said he has it easier than other QBs but I don't fault him for it. Gotta do what you're good at. The easier path, however, doesn't make you a Top 5 player at your position ever.

 

His career and coaches have catered to his individual success. Screw winning.

 

Also I think the fact that counts towards like 25M of the cap speaks volumes. He's a me-first player -- probably better suited to be a WR.

 

He doesn't have it easier though... it only looks easier because he makes good choices. You are honestly trying to say Brees is less of a QB somehow because he doesn't force throws when his receivers are covered. He instead looks to his RB's and TE's who have better matchups.

 

That's not called having an easier path. That's called being smart with the football. I'd say it works out pretty good with the amount of points he has put up in his career.

Edited January 31, 2017 by Sarge

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

 

He doesn't have it easier though... it only looks easier because he makes good choices. You are honestly trying to say Brees is less of a QB somehow because he doesn't force throws when his receivers are covered. He instead looks to his RB's and TE's who have better matchups.

 

That's not called having an easier path. That's called being smart with the football. I'd say it works out pretty good with the amount of points he has put up in his career.

 

 

It's not easier throwing to RBs than WRs? Come on man.. Come on. Lol. You can defend Brees all you want, but don't go the the route you are.

 

Alex Smith's whole career is based around the fact that people make fun of him for checking it down all the time. Brees isn't untouchable.

 

It's definitely the easier the path.

 

Where would you put Brees all time, roughly speaking?

[Sarge+ 3,436]

lol @ calling someone with the YPA of Brees a check-down QB. Dude...really?

 

I really forgot how much of a hater you are until just now.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Why is a sub 7 YPA that great? When you complete more passes, your YPA is going to be naturally higher unless your guys are getting tackled behind the line. Brees has that inherently because 10-13% more of his completions go to his backs.

And you didn't answer my question -- where do you rank him all time?

[oochymp 2,393]

FWIW Brees was second in the league in air yardage (which subtracts YAC from total passing yards) and since he does have large volume stats based on the team he averaged 4.15 air yards per attempt, that's comparable to Tom Brady (4.17), Andy Dalton (4.13), and Ben Roethlisberger (4.12) and ahead of Philip Rivers (3.94) and Aaron Rodgers (3.94). If you'd rather look at percentages, 53.7% of his yards this year were air yards, which is comparable to Aaron Rodgers (53.9%) and ahead of Matt Ryan (51.9%), Philip Rivers (51.9%), Joe Flacco (50.9%), Tom Brady (50.7%), and Matt Stafford (48.5%) so even if a lot of his passes are going to RBs he's not just checking down constantly.

 

Here's my source: Quarterback Air Yards: 2016 NFL Season I'm assuming that site is reliable but it's not one I've used much