Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
RazorStar

Razor's QB Quandary, Who Exceeds Expectations?

Recommended Posts

Colt's defense is higher than I thought it would be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Peyton did get a few years with the Broncos defense as well, but I was pleasantly surprised with how well his defenses did. More importantly, Peyton was the best among QB's in games where his team gave up 22 points or less, going a staggering 106-6. You needed to put large scores on the board to stand a chance, there weren't going to be many defensive struggles.

 

As for QB's on the more frustrating end of the spectrum, you've got Matt Stafford and Donovan McNabb, who do pretty well in shootout style games, yet have games where they just don't show up and can't back up good defensive performances. Ryan Fitzpatrick is just plain bad and the numbers confirm it, which I was really happy to see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Colts defenses were probably ranked higher than their actual talent level, because a lot of the time Peyton would get the team up early so quickly, that opposing offenses would then become one-dimensional. (Tampa 2 defense takes advantage of that)

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've gone ahead and updated this for the new year. There was only one new QB to qualify for the sample data, and it was Russell Wilson, who has spotted himself right in behind Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger. Pretty good place to be early in your career. Cam Newton and Joe Flacco of all people ended up jumping quite a few spots up, but the Matt Schaub Eliteness Line (MSEL) is still holding strong.

 

Russell Wilson has the best defense of any QB in this study so far, so it'll be interesting to see if he can keep up when his defense isn't consistently holding offenses to less than 23 points per game. So far every QB in the study save for Ryan Fitzpatrick is appreciably better than the average starter, but Alex Smith is actually inching closer to average after this season, which is peculiar to say the least. I still have to derive the new expected win percentages, but they shouldn't change all that much.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wezMtoCffXvcLPmlYck1Flu4Si7-GRY1e9TQu2KQSwA/edit?usp=sharing

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Chatbox

    TGP has moved to Discord (sorta) - https://discord.gg/JkWAfU3Phm

    Load More
    You don't have permission to chat.
×