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SteVo presents...MegaBoard!

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What I Have Done: Compile rankings from seven different "big boards" of prospects for the NFL Draft, calculating which prospects are, on average, ranked highest.

 

The seven big boards used are:

  • CBS Sports (top 400)
  • DraftTek (400)
  • ProFootballFocus (250)
  • Tony Pauline (200)
  • Gil Brandt (150)
  • WalterFootball (100)
  • Optimum Scouting (100)

I tried to use rankings from sources that obviously put in a lot of time and effort into them, but I am open to suggestions for better ones (see Disclaimer #2 below).

 

Disclaimer #1: This is not meant to be my personal ranking of the prospects. It is rather a collective analysis of how the scouting community ranks them. It is objectively subjective in that it is simply and purely a ranking of the rankings.

 

Disclaimer #2: This is experimental. I do not claim for this to be perfect, nor do I claim it to be of any quality whatsoever. This is just for fun and to get some good discussion going as we count down to draft day. I welcome any and all suggestions on improvement.

 

To Qualify: Prospects must be ranked in the top 40 in at least two of seven boards, and may be unranked in no more than two of seven boards. This created a final list of 49 prospects.

 

More on this and the math in general to come. But now, let's get into it...

 

 

Top 10 Prospects

  1. DE Myles Garrett, 1.00
  2. S Jamal Adams, 4.00
  3. RB Leonard Fournette, 4.00
  4. DE Solomon Thomas, 4.33
  5. DI Jonathan Allen, 4.33
  6. S Malik Hooker, 5.00
  7. CB Marshon Lattimore, 6.17
  8. TE O.J. Howard, 8.67
  9. LB Reuben Foster, 11.00
  10. RB Dalvin Cook, 11.33

 

Tiebreakers and Regarding the Math in General: I averaged the top six rankings out of seven for each prospect. This was necessary because many prospects were not ranked by one source. Standard deviation, however, is calculated for all seven rankings and counts as the tiebreaker.

 

For example, notice the tie for 2nd place. Jamal Adams' outlier was Tony Pauline, who ranks him 6th. Fournette, however, is ranked 23rd by PFF. While neither affects the players' average, Fournette's outlier results in a standard deviation of 7.02. The very consistently ranked Adams has a standard deviation of 1.28, so he wins the tiebreaker.

 

This is an imperfect system, and it is rather bad for prospects who have a NR (not ranked) as their outlier, which does not hurt standard deviation at all.

 

 

Prospects Who Are Ranked Very Consistently

Not necessarily the lowest standard deviation, just prospects whose data I find interesting

  • (1) Myles Garrett - Ranked 1st on all seven boards.
  • (6) Malik Hooker - His rankings: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th, 8th.
  • (14) Christian McCaffrey - No one has him higher than 12th or lower than 24th.
  • (18) Ryan Ramcyzk - Similar to McCaffrey. He's no higher than 13th, no lower than 27th.

 

Prospects Who Are Ranked All Over the Place

Not necessarily the highest standard deviation, just prospects whose data I find interesting

  • (17) Mitchell Trubisky - Five boards have him in the top 21. The other two? 39th and 63rd.
  • (24) Deshaun Watson - Walter has him 99th, Gil Brandt has him 9th.
  • (39) Carl Lawson - PFF has him 14th, but everyone else has him outside the top 32, and he's not in Walter's top 100.
  • (48) Jalen Tabor - Two boards have him in the top 30, two have him outside the top 100.

 

Miscellaneous Stuff I Also Find Interesting

  • Who's #2? Five different prospects got ranked second across the seven boards. CBSSports and DraftTek: Solomon Thomas. Tony Pauline and Gil Brandt: Leonard Fournette. Optimum Scouting: Jamal Adams. WalterFootball: Malik Hooker. ProFootballFocus: Jonathan Allen.
  • Dalvin Cook vs. Christian McCaffrey. While many mock drafters are embracing McCaffrey's rising stock (he's a popular pick to the Panthers 8th overall), MegaBoard has Cook four spots higher (10th, 14th). Five of seven boards have Cook ranked higher.
  • The Quarterbacks. Trubisky is 17th, Mahomes is 23rd, Watson is 24th, and Kizer is 40th.
  • Cornerbacks. Much has been said and written about the quality and depth of this class, though if you look at the rankings, you'll see plenty of disagreement about which corners are first-round prospects.
  • The Last Two Spots. The eligibility requirements for this list are flawed, and it shows the farther down the list you go. Jalen Tabor and JuJu Smith-Schuster are 48th and 49th, but if I extended the rules, they would slide quite a bit. In the spreadsheet are some unranked prospects with their calculations.
  • Joe Mixon. Undoubtedly the most notable prospect deemed ineligible for this list, Mixon was unranked by three of seven boards (two top 100's and a top 150). The other four have him 32nd, 34th, 86th, and 93rd.

 

One Last Random Tidbit: Only 15 prospects are in the top 32 on all seven boards: the top ten prospects, Mike Williams, John Ross, Christian McCaffrey, Corey Davis, and Ryan Ramcyzk.

 

The Full List: See the attached Excel spreadsheet.

NFL Draft Big Board 2017.xlsx

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Absolutely do not see Dalvin Cook as a top 10 prospect.

 

I have a pretty big issue with two having Tabor out of the top 100, I mean I have him locked as a top 40/50 prospect where you know what you're getting: a good cover corner who is weak against the run. They must really like 60 or so prospects a lot to put them over Tabor.

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How much does adding my board throw a wrench in shit? :p

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