SteVo+ 3,702 Posted April 26, 2017 DISCLAIMER: This isn't me playing it safe or matching prospects to teams in advance. This is my honest-to-goodness, balls-to-the-wall prediction of what will go down Thursday night, complete with multiple trades and surprises plus lots of research and some historical nuggets. Let's roll. 1) DE Myles Garrett, Texas A&M The Browns choose the best prospect over the best quarterback. They'll plan a trade up for a quarterback involving the 12th pick. 2) DE Solomon Thomas, Stanford The Niners are desperate to trade down, but nobody's biting. So, they're forced to pick from their board, and Thomas makes the most sense. Or, in this case, he's the least nonsensical pick. Here's why I don't think other prospects make sense: Leonard Fournette: He's a legitimate option; I chose between him and Thomas. But I believe Kyle Shanahan wants a more dynamic back for his offense, and he can check that box later in the draft. Marshon Lattimore: Evan as the best corner in a great class, I think #2 overall may be a slight reach. The safeties, Adams or Hooker: The 49ers actually have some competent players at safety and have invested recent high draft picks there (Jaquiski Tartt, Jimmie Ward). With this pick, they need to address a position bereft of talent. Jonathan Allen: The 49ers have interior pass-rushers in Arik Armsted and DeForest Buckner. 3) SS Jamal Adams, LSU There was a time, not long ago, when a safety going 3rd overall was unheard of. Those days are gone. Ask the Chiefs how taking Eric Berry 5th overall has worked out. The Bears need talent everywhere, especially in the secondary, and Adams could very well be the best prospect not named Garrett in this class. TRADE! The Jaguars trade #4 to the Panthers for #8 and #40. 4) RB Leonard Fournette, LSU Regarding the Jaguars: They like Fournette and could take him without a significant trade offer, but sliding back four spots to pick up a high 2nd-rounder in a class like this is worth it. Regarding the Panthers: They have a talented roster. Despite what you think of Matt Kalil, the Panthers think they’ve addressed left tackle by paying him $55 million. So, a year removed from going 17-2, the Panthers believe they’re primed for a bounce-back year and thus are maybe the most willing team to trade up for a non-QB in this draft. Fournette is the perfect instant-impact addition to their offense. TRADE! The Titans trade #5 to the Chargers for #7 and #71. 5) FS Malik Hooker, Ohio State Regarding the Titans: GM Jon Robinson wants to move down. He doesn't get the 2nd-rounder he wants, but a 3rd-rounder is fine to slide down two spots. He risks missing out on a secondary prospect with his top pick, but he has a plan. Regarding the Chargers: Hooker is a popular mock draft pick to Los Angeles for a reason. He fits their new defense so perfectly, the Chargers jump over two secondary-needy teams (Tennessee included) to secure him. 6) CB Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State Note: Cleveland tries to move up here, but the analytics guys in the building prevent them from giving up too much, and the Jets say no deal. When you consider how universally loved this cornerback class is, consider also that Lattimore is the consensus top prospect among that group. In that sense, this pick is both filling a critical need and picking the BPA. 7) TE O.J. Howard, Alabama The trade down leaves Tennessee without Hooker or Lattimore, but they'll gladly target a corner at #18. For now, they get the best offensive weapon on the board, and maybe the best one in the draft. Double-TE sets with Howard and Delanie Walker fit what the Titans want to do on offense beautifully. 8) QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson BOOM! The new regime in Jacksonville says goodbye to Blake Bortles and ignites the first surprise bomb of the draft. Scouts fall in love with Watson's intangibles and become convinced he can be the franchise-altering superstar the Jaguars have needed for years. Surprised to see Watson ahead of Trubisky? Weird things happen in weak QB classes. Two recent examples: 2013. Geno Smith was supposed to be the first QB off the board. Ryan Nassib and Matt Barkley even got some 1st-round buzz. It ended up being E.J. Manuel. 2014. Teddy Bridgewater was the consensus #1 overall mock draft pick for a while. Johnny Manziel got plenty of attention. The Jags took Blake Bortles 3rd overall. TRADE! The Bengals trade #9 to the Browns for #12, #65, and #175. 9) QB Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina Regarding the Bengals: There are at least four prospects they love in this spot, and with Watson surprisingly off the board, they capitalize on the Browns' aggression, picking up a 3rd- and 5th-rounder. Regarding the Browns: After three failed attempts to move up, the surprise selection of Watson scares them into action. They jump the Bills to get Trubisky and leave the first round with the draft's best prospect, their franchise quarterback, and seven more picks to be made. 10) WR Mike Williams, Clemson Were the Bills after a quarterback? We'll never know. They draft instead their biggest need around current QB Tyrod Taylor. Williams' physicality and ability to make contested catches complements Sammy Watkins' speed. 11) DE Derek Barnett, Tennessee New Orleans seriously considers ending Jonathan Allen's slide here, but last year's 1st-round selection of Sheldon Rankins complicates that. Instead, they take the next best defensive player, filling a major need at pass rush. They plan to draft a defensive back at #32. 12) DT Jonathan Allen, Alabama This worked out pretty well for Cincinnati. They acquire a few extra picks and take a player they probably would have selected at #9 anyway. Allen's shoulder lowers his draft stock, but he's still a heck of a football player, too good for the Bengals to pass up. 13) WR Corey Davis, Western Michigan With Watson and Trubisky off the board, the QB-of-the-future vs. instant-impact-player debate ends in Arizona's war room, though they'll consider a QB in round two. For now, they add to their offense with a receiver who has the size and speed to contribute right away. 14) RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford Gareon Conley's rape incident knocks him from this spot (and the first round altogether), making room instead for a player who both fits Philadelphia's offense perfectly and continues their offseason priority of building around Carson Wentz. They'll address the secondary by taking advantage of this draft's depth at cornerback. 15) ILB Haason Reddick, Temple This might not look like a BPA pick, but it is. Coaches value versatility, and Reddick, a 4-3 DE at Temple, suddenly playing stand-up linebacker like a boss at the Senior Bowl got everyone's attention. He fits the Colts' priority of adding talent to their defense. 16) WR John Ross, Washington The Ravens try to trade down, but nobody's biting. So, GM Ozzie Newsome sticks to his board, foregoing the team's need on the offensive line for an explosive receiver in Ross. TRADE! The Redskins trade #17 to the Broncos for #20 and #126. 17) OT Ryan Ramcyzk, Wisconsin Regarding the Redskins: They have a lot of needs and would love any trade down. A 4th-rounder is more appetizing than usual in this draft. Regarding the Broncos: They have a gigantic need on the offensive line and need to address it. So, they spend a mid-rounder to ensure they get the highest one on their board. They still have eight picks left. 18) CB Marlon Humphrey, Alabama After getting an offensive playmaker, the Titans shore up the secondary with a player many NFL teams like more than some on TGP do. 19) OT Cam Robinson, Alabama The Bucs want to help Jameis Winston with this pick, but all three 1st-round receivers are gone. They wouldn't mind a trade down to target David Njoku, but there aren't any offers. So, they stay put and draft a guy who can play left tackle right away. 20) OLB Takkarist McKinley, UCLA After trading down, the Redskins add a solid prospect to rush the passer, one of their most important needs. 21) DE Taco Charlton, Michigan The Lions need impact players to take the step from middling playoff team to legitimate Super Bowl contender. Like the Redskins before them, they grab someone to get after the quarterback. 22) DE Charles Harris, Missouri The run on pass-rushers continues! The Dolphins still need to bolster protection in front of Ryan Tannehill, but they first try to boost their defense, taking a kid with a lot of potential. 23) TE David Njoku, Miami Big Blue takes a hard look at Garrett Bolles here but decides that Njoku is the better prospect. He'll provide a stable short passing game to help open things deep for Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. 24) ILB Reuben Foster, Alabama He comes with red flags, but Foster is a top-10 prospect on tape. The Raiders stop his free fall and add an impact defender to the middle of their front seven, a draft priority. 25) OT Garrett Bolles, Utah Houston has a conversation about quarterback, but there's no sense drafting a kid who could need two years to develop in Pat Mahomes, and it's too soon for David Webb. So, without a quarterback, the Texans do the next best thing by helping the protection in front of whoever their quarterback is. TRADE! The Seahawks trade #26 to the Cowboys for #28 and #133. 26) CB Adoree' Jackson, USC Regarding the Seahawks: They miss out on an offensive tackle, but there's another O-lineman and a corner they like, so they don't mind moving down. Regarding the Cowboys: Jerry Jones likes to get his guy, and Jackson is his guy. He could come off the board much sooner, and any defensive talent will help Dallas' chances of another dominant season. 27) QB Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech Drafting late in the 1st round in 2007, Andy Reid traded back into the 2nd round and drafted Kevin Kolb. Though the Chiefs can't find a trade partner (they try with Atlanta), Reid repeats his strategy. With Alex Smith entrenched as the starter, this is an ideal landing spot for the intangibly-gifted-but-mechanically-devoid Mahomes. 28) OG Forrest Lamp, Western Kentucky Seattle doesn't mind a guard in round one, especially after trading down. They need to improve their offensive line any way they can, and Lamp is ready to start immediately, good news for Russell Wilson. 29) CB Tre'Davious White, LSU The Packers take advantage of a good cornerback class to address a pressing need, trying to ease the burden on Aaron Rodgers. They'll keep their eyes on running backs in round two. 30) ILB Jarrad Davis, Florida The Steelers stick to the idea of drafting the best defensive player here. Ryan Shazier's injury history means they're not against another inside linebacker. 31) DE Jordan Willis, Kansas State The Falcons have eyed pass-rushers all along. They entertained thoughts of trading up for Charlton or Harris, but with only six picks, they refrain from overspending, stay put, and take Willis, very much worthy of being selected in the 1st round. 32) CB Chidobe Awuzie, Colorado New Orleans knew there would be quality corners available at this pick, and Awuzie could go much higher. The phones are ringing with teams trying to get back into the first round, but the Saints say no deal. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BJORN 679 Posted April 26, 2017 Nice. Don't forget the 49ers are set at RB with Carlos Hyde. Fournette wouldn't make much sense there. I agree that if NFL teams are confident that they can develop Watson with no issue then I think he is no doubt the first one off of the board. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vin+ 3,121 Posted April 26, 2017 TRADE! The Jaguars trade #4 to the Panthers for #8 and #40. 4) RB Leonard Fournette, LSU 8) QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JetsFan4Life 542 Posted April 27, 2017 I would be very content with Lattimore at 6. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites