RazorStar 4,025 Posted January 2, 2018 And here we go with the injury adjusted numbers. I honestly don't feel great about this stat in its current form. There is some potential here, but I'd need to figure out a better weighting curve, or maybe just not have one altogether. 1. Alex Smith 337.53 2. Tom Brady 329.06 3. Drew Brees 322.647 4. Jared Goff 288.12 5. Case Keenum 286.06 6. Kirk Cousins 272.59 7. Dak Prescott 253.71 8. Russell Wilson 252.77 9. Matt Ryan 245.29 10. Philip Rivers 219.00 11. Matt Stafford 207.47 12. Ben Roeth 203.94 13. Tyrod Taylor 203.59 14. Derek Carr 194.88 15. Josh McCown 194.59 16. Marcus Mariota 193.71 17. Cam Newton 187.29 18. Carson Wentz 173.89 19. Jameis Winston 153.29 20. Blake Bortles 150.88 21. Andy Dalton 138.41 22. Ryan Fitzpatrick 132.71 23. Eli Manning 121.94 24. Jacoby Brissett 117.65 25. Jay Cutler 115.176 26. Jimmy Garrapolo 110.82 27. C.J Beathard 98.706 28. Mike Glennon 73.588 29. Joe Flacco 71.588 30. Brian Hoyer 63.353 31. Aaron Rodgers 61.882 32. Trevor Siemian 60.529 33. Mitch Trubisky 55.471 34. DeShaun Watson 51.471 35. Brock Osweiler 46.647 36. Brett Hundley 46.647 37. Matt Moore 43.529 38. Blaine Gabbert 27.706 39.Carson Palmer 19.059 40. DeShone Kizer 18.706 41. Drew Stanton 15.824 42. Sam Bradford 14.471 43. Bryce Petty 11.00 44. Tom Savage 9.941 45. Scott Tolzien 9.059 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thanatos 2,847 Posted January 2, 2018 I think I know which game would be dropped from Cam's list if we took out the worst one. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RazorStar 4,025 Posted January 4, 2018 Ok so before I put up the adjusted list for player's best and worst games, I need to add a qualifier that the player must have played at least half the season, and thrown at least 14 passes in those games. Because of this qualifier, Houston, Arizona and San Francisco do not have any QB's on this list. This is more of a concession to small sample sizes screwing up things.Ties are won by the player with the better YPA, as usual. Best and Worst games removed were decided by passer rating unless I felt there was a notable exception (marked with asterisks). If you don't like how that works, too bad, my list my rules. If you can provide an exception for me and explain why, that'd be cool. Otherwise, gonna go with the base numbers. Just easier for me to sort out and get done. Alex Smith: Best WK1 vs. NE (148.6). Worst WK11 vs. NYG (61.5) Drew Brees: Best WK3 vs. CAR (131.4)*. Worst WK6 vs. DET (77.9) (Reason for exception, narrow difference of 0.5 passer rating between this and his first TB game, but he fumbled once against them.) Tom Brady: Best WK2 vs. NO (139.6)*. Worst WK14 vs. MIA (59.5) (Reason for exception, Sacked more often in Houston game, and fumbled 3 times. Clearly not his best game) Case Keenum: Best WK3 vs. TB (142.1). Worst WK2 vs. PIT (65.9) Jared Goff: Best WK9 vs. NYG (146.8). Worst WK5 vs. SEA (48.9) Ben Roethlisberger: Best WK7 vs. CIN (117.4). Worst WK5 vs. JAX (37.8) Carson Wentz: Best WK5 vs. ARI (128.3). Worst WK2 vs. KC (83.0) Philip Rivers: Best WK12 vs. DAL (149.1). Worst WK3 vs. KC (37.2) (Fun Fact, Rivers threw 6 INT's against the Chiefs in 2 games, 4 INTs against 12 other teams in 14 games.) Matt Ryan: Best WK1 vs. CHI (116.1). Worst WK14 vs. NO (55.2). Matt Stafford: Best WK17 vs. GB (140.4). Worst WK6 vs. NO (62.3) Russell Wilson: Best WK7 vs. NYG (121.1)*. Worst WK15 vs. LA (71.8)*. (Reason for Exceptions. Passer Rating doesn't include the 7 sacks taken against the Rams, otherwise GB would be his worst game by 2.1 rating points. Passer rating doesn't include his fumble against Houston, and the difference is 2.1 rating points as well.) Dak Prescott: Best WK3 vs. ARI (141.7). Worst WK11 vs. PHI (30.4). Kirk Cousins: Best WK3 vs. OAK (150.7). Worst WK17 vs. NYG (31.1) Josh McCown: Best WK3 vs. MIA (126.3). Worst WK14 vs. DEN (25.0). Tyrod Taylor: Best WK3 vs. DEN (126.0). Worst WK10 vs. NO (33.6). Cam Newton: Best WK5 vs. DET (141.8). Worst WK17 vs. ATL (31.5) Marcus Mariota: Best WK15 vs. SF (110.8). Worst WK14 vs. ARI (39.6) Blake Bortles: Best WK15 vs. HOU (143.8). Worst WK17 vs. TEN (33.7) Jameis Winston: Best WK15 vs. ATL (130.5)*. Worst WK8 vs. CAR (49.2) (Reason for exception. Jameis lost three fumbles in the second Carolina game, which did not count towards passer rating. The Falcons game is only worse by 0.6 rating points) Derek Carr: Best WK2 vs. NYJ (136.6). Worst Wk16 vs. PHI (48.1) Andy Dalton: Best WK4 vs. CLE (146.0). Worst WK1 vs. BAL (28.4)*. (Reason for Exception. His Minnesota game may have been worse in QB rating by 1.1 points, but at that level of badness, I say 5 turnovers is worse than 2.) Jacoby Brissett: Best WK9 vs. HOU (122.6). Worst WK13 vs. JAX (56.9) Joe Flacco: Best WK16 vs. IND (109.2). Worst WK3 vs. JAX (12.0) Jay Cutler: Best WK9 vs. OAK (121.3). Worst WK15 vs. BUF (47.5) Eli Manning: Best WK10 vs. SF (113.9). Worst Wk12 vs. WAS (44.2). Mitch Trubisky: Best WK14 vs. CIN (112.4)*. Worst WK12 vs. PHI (38.3). (Reason for Exception, Had a rushing TD vs. CIN, and 2 fumbles against SF. Also, the Bears actually won against the Bengals. 4.8 rating point difference) Trevor Siemian: Best WK2 vs. DAL (116.0). Worst WK13 vs. MIA (30.5) Brett Hundley: Best Wk12 vs. PIT (134.3). Worst WK16 vs. MIN (30.2) DeShone Kizer: Best WK14 vs. GB (99.4). Worst WK2 vs. BAL (27.3). QB Rankings With Best/Worst Games Removed 1. Alex Smith 16 2. Drew Brees 22 3. Tom Brady 26 4. Ben Roeth 27 (+2) 5. Case Keenum 27 (-1) 6. Jared Goff 34 (-1) 7. Matt Stafford 42 (+3) 8. Carson Wentz 42 (-1) 9. Russell Wilson 44 (+2) 10. Philip Rivers 46 (-2) 11. Matt Ryan 48 (-2) 12. Josh McCown 49 (+2) 13. Dak Prescott 50 (-1) 14. Kirk Cousins 55 (-1) 15. Cam Newton 56 (+1) 16. Tyrod Taylor 59 (-1) 17. Jameis Winston 66 (+2) 18. Marcus Mariota 66 (-1) 19. Blake Bortles 69 (-1) 20. Andy Dalton 71 (+1) 21. Derek Carr 76 (-1) 22. Jacoby Brissett 82 23. Joe Flacco 82 24. Jay Cutler 86 25. Mitch Trubisky 89 (+1) 26. Eli Manning 93 (-1) 27. Trevor Siemian 101 28. Brett Hundley 102 29. DeShone Kizer 114 6 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SteVo+ 3,702 Posted January 4, 2018 Razor, your ability to analyze the game of football using mathematics is unparalleled on this site. And as a math guy, I appreciate your efforts greatly. Now get some sleep. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seanbrock 1,684 Posted January 4, 2018 I like that Carson's low's this year weren't all that bad. That's a mark of consistency. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sarge+ 3,436 Posted January 4, 2018 This is great. I bet the 2nd half rankings would be less work, though, right? Could you please still do that? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RazorStar 4,025 Posted January 4, 2018 Yeah, just you know, one step at a time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Favre4Ever+ 4,476 Posted January 4, 2018 That's the Brett Hundley I know.. Although... Kizer has to be all kinds of watery shit to be below him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sarge+ 3,436 Posted January 5, 2018 Can confirm. Kizer is that type of shit when you chug a whole bottle of apple juice before realizing what you did. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RazorStar 4,025 Posted January 11, 2018 (edited) And Finally, we have second half rankings. Let's just say, you'll never see it coming! https://youtu.be/eFVj0Z6ahcI?t=44s QB's must have 100 attempts in the second half of the season to qualify for the list. And the pluses and minuses next to each QB's name are in comparison to how they did in the second half vs how they did with the whole season under consideration. This gives you the best idea of who had strong second halves compared to their first halves, or just against the field in general. Second Half QB Rankings (Week 10-17) 1. Case Keenum 18 (+3) 2. Ben Roeth 28 (+5) 3. Philip Rivers 31 (+6) 4. Drew Brees 33 (-2) 5. Matt Stafford 37 (+6) 6. Carson Wentz 38 (+2) 7. Jimmy Garappolo 39 (-1) 8. Alex Smith 39 (-7) 9. Tom Brady 42 (-6) 10. Jared Goff 42 (-5) 11. Matt Ryan 53 (-1) 12. Joe Flacco 55 (+13) 13. Jameis Winston 56 (+8) 14. Cam Newton 58 (+4) 15. Russell Wilson 63 (-3) 16. Josh McCown 67 (-1) 17. Blake Bortles 69 (+3) 18. Kirk Cousins 73 (-4) 19. Brock Osweiler 76 (+10) 20. Ryan Fitzpatrick 76 (-3) 21. Tyrod Taylor 80 (-5) 22. Andy Dalton 80 (+1) 23. Marcus Mariota 89 (-4) 24. Derek Carr 89 (-2) 25. Mitch Trubisky 91 (+3) 26. Jacoby Brissett 97 (-2) 27. Jay Cutler 100 (-1) 28. Dak Prescott 102 (-15) 29. Brett Hundley 104 (+2) 30. DeShone Kizer 108 (+3) 31. Eli Manning 114 (-4) 32. Drew Stanton 117 33. Tom Savage 119 (+3) 34. Trevor Siemian 125 (-4) 35. Bryce Petty 126 (-1) 36. Blaine Gabbert 130 (-1) Edited January 11, 2018 by RazorStar 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seanbrock 1,684 Posted January 12, 2018 So I guess that Zeke Elliot guy is pretty good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sarge+ 3,436 Posted January 12, 2018 Thanks again, man. Things I either knew or am not surprised about the 2nd half of the season: Ben and Stafford being great, Dak tumbling. Things I didn't know or am very surprised at: Keenum being the best and Flacco being league average or better. Super interesting stuff, as always. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OSUViking 505 Posted January 12, 2018 I've heard so much stuff about Dak. One person said he masterfully avoided a sophomore slump, others said he was putrid when Zeke left, and others said he was a guy trying to work with nothing and obviously didn't succeed. That Seattle game was awful, regardless. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seanbrock 1,684 Posted January 13, 2018 Dak struggled a lot when the PA pass wasn't working. his counting stats are a little deceiving as to the kind of season he had. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites