Breaking Down the Postseason Chase

[RazorStar 4,025]

Current Playoff Race:

Out:

Jets, Bengals, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Browns

Packers, Redskins, Cardinals, Bucs, 49ers, Bears, Giants

AFC Competitors

Patriots 11-3 (Division clinched)

Steelers 11-3 (Division clinched)

Jaguars 10-4 (Playoff berth clinched)

Chiefs 8-6

Titans 8-6

Bills 8-6

---

Ravens 8-6

Chargers 7-7

Raiders 6-8

Dolphins 6-8

NFC Competitors

Eagles 12-2 (First round bye clinched)

Vikings 11-3 (division clinched)

Rams 10-4

Saints 10-4

Panthers 10-4

Falcons 9-5

---

Lions 8-6

Seahawks 8-6

Cowboys 8-6

New England (Currently 1 seed)

Do they control their destiny? Yes, clinched playoff spot.

Do they control HFA? Yes.

For the Patriots it's pretty simple. Winning out getting them the first seed in the conference. No matter what, they will be the 3 seed at worst.

They have head to head over the Steelers which could matter if both teams are tied at the top, but if Jacksonville joins them in a three way tie, the edge goes to the Jaguars based on conference record.

Pittsburgh (Currently 2 seed)

Do they control their destiny? Yes, Clinched playoff spot.

Do they control HFA? No, but they could in week 16 with certain results (Pats and Jags losses and a win))

The Steelers have a harder road than the Patriots thanks to head to head losses against both the Patriots and Jaguars.

Two wins and a Patriots loss will give them homefield throughout, which means odds are at least reasonable for them. However a single loss will have them tumbling to the 3rd seed almost guaranteed.

Jacksonville (Currently 3 seed)

Do they control their destiny? Yes, playoff berth clinched

Do they control HFA? No, but they could in week 16 with certain results (Pats and Steelers losses and a win)

Jacksonville has a bit more mobility in their playoff positioning thanks to not quite having their division on lockdown yet.

If they can catch up with the Steelers and Patriots, tiebreakers are currently in their favour thanks to a strong conference record, and a H2H win over the Steelers. However if they lose out, they'll be stuck at 3, and if the Titans win their week 16 game against the Rams as well, the Jags will fall all the way to the 5th seed.

Kansas City (Currently 4 seed)

Do they control their destiny? Yes, division leader

Do they control HFA? No, and no other teams can get it either. It's between the Jags, Steelers and Pats.

The Chiefs are fun. They can go anywhere from the 3 seed to missing the playoffs entirely. If they take care of their business and win at least one game, they will clinch their division and get a 4 seed. Winning twice, having the Jags lose twice and the Titans win twice will bump them up to the 3rd seed potentially.

If the Chiefs lose both of their games (vs. Dolphins, @ Broncos) then things get interesting. Two Charger wins will give the Chargers the division, and force the Chiefs into the wild card race with the current 8-6 Titans, 8-6 Ravens, 8-6 Bills and 7-8 Dolphins (win in week 16 vs. Chiefs).

There actually is no scenario where the Chiefs can come back from that, unless the Chargers failed to win the division. Then the Chiefs would still take the West at 8-8 with H2H tiebreakers on Oakland and Los Angeles.

Tennessee (Currently 5 seed)

Do they control their destiny? No.

Tennessee has no say on what they can do, winning out doesn't even guarantee them a playoff spot, because Baltimore and Buffalo would both surpass them in common games tiebreaker if they all tie at 10-6, and the Jags simply have to win against the 49ers in week 16 to clinch the division.

However, if things do go their way, they can still claim the third seed by winning out, having the Jags lose out, and having the Chiefs lose a game somewhere down the line. Basically, their situation is pretty interesting, but at the moment the Jags, Bills and Ravens winning could put their hopes on lockdown.

Buffalo (Currently 6 seed)

Do they control their destiny? No.

I did some relooking over this one, and there is a situation that takes the Bills out of the playoffs, even if they win out. It requires the Titans winning the AFC South at 10-6, and the Ravens winning out. Jacksonville take the 5 seed on tiebreakers, and Baltimore has the tiebreaker over Buffalo. Losing in Foxboro sunday won't immediately sink them, but they would need a lot of help to make it at 9-7.

Baltimore (Currently 7th)

Do they control their destiny? Yes.

Baltimore can get in with two wins, and considering they're playing the Colts and Bengals, it's not a hard task for them. They could bounce from 5th to 6th depending on tiebreakers (they lose to Jacksonville or Tennessee straight out, but adding Buffalo to the mix puts them ahead.)

A loss wouldn't be the end of the world, but it would make it very difficult to get in without help.

Los Angeles (Currently 8th)

Do they control their destiny? No.

If the new LA team wants to make the postseason, they need a fair amount of help after blowing their best chance last week. The easiest path in is 2 straight Chiefs losses with two straight wins. A loss will put the Chargers out of the race entirely.

They could still make a wildcard at 9-7, but they would need help from Baltimore, Buffalo and Tennessee at the very least.

Oakland (Currently 9th)

Do they control their destiny? No.

Ok, so Oakland's qualifying scenario is pretty dumb. They need a lot of help, and they need Baltimore to win the 5th seed outright (they go 9-7 or 10-6), Tennessee, Buffalo and Los Angeles all go 8-8 or worse, AND they need Miami to win out and go 8-8 (to eliminate Buffalo).

With all of that happening, Oakland doesn't have to worry about their H2H loss to Buffalo, (eliminated by Miami) and can use their head to head wins against the Dolphins and Titans to secure the 6th seed. It's pretty wild.

Miami (currently 10th)

Do they control their destiny? No.

Miami's situation is a fair bit easier than Oakland's, but they still need help. They have tiebreakers on every single team should they go into the 8-8 pile, which is great. (H2H on Tennessee, Conference games on Los Angeles, Oakland and Baltimore, divisional record on Buffalo)

So a single win from Buffalo, Baltimore or Tennessee won't sink them, but one win from each of them, or LA winning out will put them out of contention.

I'll put up the NFC scenarios later.

Edited December 21, 2017 by RazorStar

[Thanatos 2,847]

 

 

If the Chiefs lose both of their games (vs. Dolphins, @ Chiefs)

 

Chiefs @ Chiefs is definitely my game of the week in week 17. Can't wait to see how Andy Reid's defense deals with Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Hush, child. >_>

 

1. Philadelphia

Do they control their destiny? Yes. First Round Bye clinched.

Do they control HFA? Yes.

The Eagles are in a very healthy spot, and can finish second at the absolute worst. A single win will give them HFA since only the Vikings would be able to catch them, and the Eagles have the common games tiebreaker on them.

Two losses will put them in second if the Vikings win out (H2H over the Rams if they tie, H2H over the Panthers, and Conference games over the Saints.)

2. Minnesota

Do they control their destiny? Yes. Division title clinched.

Do they control HFA? No, and they need plenty of help to take it.

The Vikings could bounce from anywhere to 1-4 depending on how they do in these last weeks. Two wins will give them a first round bye without contention, and one win almost guarantees them the second seed, unless Carolina is the only other team to tie with them at 12-4, due to a head to head loss.

Two straight losses will probably drop them down to the 4th seed, unless other division winners also join them at 11-5, in which case favorable tiebreakers could give them an edge and still guarantee a 2nd seed.

3. Los Angeles

Do they control their destiny? Yes. Division Leader

Do they control HFA? No, and no other teams can get it.

The Rams are interesting. A single win will clinch their division over the Seahawks, but two straight losses could take them out of the postseason entirely.

If they win both of the games on their schedule, the worst they can do is the third seed (tiebreakers on New Orleans and Carolina), and with two losses from the Vikings, they could take the second seed as well.

A single loss will keep them out of the first round bye category, and two losses could take them out of the postseason entirely (Atlanta has Conference games tiebreaker, Detroit has Conference games tiebreaker if they go 10-6, Seattle wins the division if they both go 10-6.)

4. New Orleans

Do they control their destiny? Yes. Division leader and winning out will win the division. Winning a game will secure a playoff berth.

5. Carolina

Do they control their destiny? Yes. Holding a Playoff spot currently, and a win will secure a playoff berth.

6. Atlanta

Do they control their destiny? Yes. Winning out will secure an NFC South title at 11-5. Winning a game will secure the 6th seed on tiebreakers.

The NFC South is a clusterfuck thanks to the Falcons beating the Saints two weeks ago. Now each team in the South can control their own destiny by winning out. New Orleans plays Atlanta and Tampa, Carolina plays Tampa, then Atlanta, and Atlanta clearly plays New Orleans, then Carolina.

So it becomes pretty simple for all teams involved. Win both games, and you're in the postseason. Carolina can't win the division without a Saints loss, but going 12-4 would guarantee a 5th seed as the worst case scenario.

I pretty much have to include the NFC South as it's own writeup because each game is super important for these teams. A Falcons loss will ruin their shot at the division, but they can still make the postseason with favourable tiebreakers.

If the Saints lose to the Falcons in week 16, they still have an outside shot at winning the division, but it requires Tampa beating Carolina and then having Carolina beat Atlanta.

Carolina needs the most help in needing the Saints to lose to Atlanta or Tampa, but can still take the division if their record surpasses the Saints and they beat the Falcons week 17.

11 wins is basically the magic number for a playoff spot in the NFC right now, so any NFC South team that falls below that could miss the playoffs entirely thanks to poor tiebreakers.

Atlanta has head to head victories over Detroit, Dallas and Seattle, and Conference games over the Rams so even at 10-6 they would still secure a playoff spot with a single victory down the stretch.

Seattle, Dallas and Detroit all have tiebreakers over Carolina should they go 10-6.

Seattle, Dallas and Detroit all have tiebreakers over New Orleans should they go 10-6.

7. Detroit

Do they control their destiny? No.

For the remaining three teams, they have to win out, which means the post season starts now for them. Detroit has strong tiebreakers (common games over Seattle and Dallas, Conference games over New Orleans, Los Angeles and Carolina) so they're the msot likely to make it in after winning out.

Atlanta does have head to head on them, which could be the deciding factor on whether they sneak in or not.

8. Dallas

Do they control their destiny? No.

The Cowboys need to win out and they need help from the Lions and the NFC South clusterfuck. They play Seattle week 16 and can knock them out with a win (and vice versa), but they need the Lions to lose, and they need one of the NFC South teams to lose out (tiebreakers on Carolina and New Orleans, Falcons would be 9-7.)

There is one scenario where the Cowboys don't need the Lions help, and that's having both Carolina and New Orleans lose out. Detroit would take the 5 seed, and Dallas the 6th on tiebreakers.

9. Seattle

Do they control their destiny? No.

Seattle can eliminate Dallas with a win next week, but their hopes are similar. They need help from Detroit and/or the NFC South and/or Los Angeles. Since the Seahawks can still take their division with 2 wins and 2 Rams Losses, they have a few more outs than the Cowboys.

Basically they need to win out and have at least one of the NFC South teams lose out and a Lions loss to get in for sure. But the Rams losing out would put them in as well as having the Saints and Panthers lose out.

Edited December 21, 2017 by RazorStar

[seanbrock 1,684]

Bills are gonna get in by beating the Pats. I'm gonna win pick 'em. You guys will see. You'll all see.

[SteVo+ 3,702]

Falcons lose out, Cowboys get in

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Boy if the Falcons somehow lose out and the Lions can't capitalize...

[Sparty 110]

I'm torn about these last couple of weeks. Really want the first round bye but if Steelers and Pats win we should give ourselves a bye week next week and rest all starters. No way in hell Pats and Steelers lose next week.

[RazorStar 4,025]

Well, it looks like Week 16 simplified things a bit. Let's take a look at what we've got left.

AFC Competitors

Patriots 12-3 (Division clinched, First Round Bye Clinched)

Steelers 12-3 (Division clinched. First Round Bye Clinched)

Jaguars 10-5 (Division clinched, Locked in at 3.)

Chiefs 9-6 (Division clinched, Locked in at 4.)

Ravens 9-6

Titans 8-7

---

Bills 8-7

Chargers 8-7

NFC Competitors

Eagles 13-2 (Home Field Advantage Clinched)

Vikings 12-3 (division clinched)

Rams 11-4 (division clinched)

Saints 11-4 (playoff berth clinched)

Panthers 11-4 (playoff berth clinched)

Falcons 9-6

---

Seahawks 9-6

So the AFC is clearly more interesting, with the battle for the wildcard spot still being anyone's game, and Home Field Advantage still up in the air.

New England (Currently 1 Seed)

Pittsburgh (Currently 2 Seed)

The battle for home field is a simple affair. If the Patriots win, OR the Steelers lose, the Patriots will own the first seed. If the Steelers win AND the Patriots lose, the Steelers will be rocking home field advantage. Patriots have the Jets on their schedule, and the Steelers have the Browns.

Jacksonville (Currently 3 Seed)

It doesn't matter what the Jags do, they're locked in at the 3 seed. They might decide to rest their starters or they could play for the win and try and knock the Titans out of the postseason entirely.

Kansas City (Currently 4 Seed)

The Chiefs are locked in as the 4 seed. It doesn't matter what they do or what San Diego does. They've got the Broncos on the schedule, so they could probably win even if they did rest their starters.

Baltimore (Currently 5 Seed)

Do they control their destiny? Yes.

The Ravens path to the post season is simple. They win, they're in as the 5 seed. If they lose... then things get interesting. They can still backdoor their way into the playoffs, but they need one of the Bills or the Titans to lose to do so. If the Ravens, Bills and Titans are all tied at 9-7, the tiebreakers cede the advantage to the Titans and Bills, leaving the Ravens out in the cold.

Tennessee (Currently 6 Seed)

Do they control their destiny? Yes.

Despite losing last week, the Titans can decide whether they make the postseason or not. A win against the Jaguars will ensure they at least get the 6 seed thanks to tiebreakers on Buffalo and Los Angeles, and a Ravens loss would put them into 5th. They can also backdoor themselves into the playoffs with a loss, provided Buffalo and Los Angeles do the same thing.

Buffalo (Currently 7th)

Do they control their destiny? No.

The Bills losing in Foxboro really hurts their chances. They need a win, and they need some help. There is no back door in, and the Bills only have tiebreakers on the Ravens, which is not a great position to be. Due to the way the tiebreakers work, there are a coupla different permutations that get the Bills in the playoffs.

1. Buffalo Win and a Baltimore Loss.

This ensures no matter how the Titans and Chargers do, the Bills will sneak into the post season on tiebreakers. If the Titans lost as well, the Bills would take the 5th seed, and the Ravens the 6th, otherwise the Titans would be the 5 and the Bills the 6th.

2. Buffalo Win, Baltimore Win, Titans and Chargers Loss.

This is the more difficult path, as it requires both the Titans and Chargers to lose their games. However this leaves Buffalo as the 6th seed with no contention.

Los Angeles (Currently 8th)

Do they control their destiny? No.

The Chargers need the most help of all, requiring a few things to bounce their way to get in. Most importantly, they need to beat the Raiders next Sunday to give themselves an out. They also need the Titans to lose to the Jaguars. Because the Titans screw up all of their tiebreakers and make it impossible for them to get in with a win.

Provided both of those things happen, they need one more thing to happen. Either Baltimore winning against the Bengals, or Buffalo losing against the Dolphins. That will ensure the Chargers get in as the 6th seed.

I'll do up the NFC in a bit.

[RazorStar 4,025]

NFC Breakdown

 

Philadelphia (Locked in at 1)

 

The Eagles clinched Home Field with a win against the Raiders yesterday. Win or Lose, they're number 1. They're gonna need Foles to play better than he did last week if they want to win in the postseason though.

 

Minnesota (Currently 2 Seed)

 

Minnesota is going to have a hard time falling out of the second seed. A Win will clinch a bye for them. and even if they lose, they would need the Panthers to win, the Saints to lose and the Rams to lose to fall to the third seed. As such, you can basically slot them in here at 2 when the playoffs roll around.

 

Los Angeles (Currently 3 Seed)

 

The Rams clinched their division with a win over the Titans last sunday, and will be hosting a game wildcard weekend regardless of what they do this week. The question is whether they'll be the 3 seed or the 4 seed. A win will lock up the third spot, and a loss will put them in 4th unless the Saints and Panthers both lose on sunday.

 

New Orleans (Currently 4 Seed)

 

The Saints can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on how they do next week. A Win will clinch the division and a home game. If the Rams lost as well, they could jump up to 3. With a loss and a Panthers win, they'll be taking the 5th seed.

 

Carolina (Currently 5 Seed)

 

The Panthers actually have a fair amount of mobility in their seeding, but they'll need help to make anything higher than 5. To take the division they need a win and have the Saints lose to the Bucs. If they want to be the third seed, they'll need the Rams to lose to the 49ers as well. And if they want to be the 2 seed, which is still a possibility at this point, the Vikings would need to lose to the Bears as well. So there is some potential for a wild shakeup right at the end.

 

Atlanta (Currently 6 Seed)

Seattle (Currently 7th)

 

And lastly, only two teams can compete for the 6th and final playoff spot. Atlanta currently controls their destiny thanks to a head to head win over the Seahawks a few weeks ago. An Atlanta win puts them in the playoffs, or a Seattle loss will do the same thing. Seattle needs to win against the Cardinals and have the Falcons lose against the Panthers to sneak in as the 6th seed.

[OSUViking 505]

Is the Chiefs breakdown because Alex Smith/the offense regressed in key moments or because the defense shit the bed? Just saw they had a 4,000 yard passer as well as a 1,000 yard runner (Hunt), receiver (Hill), and TE (Kelce). That's crazy.

 

Didn't they have one of the better defenses last year?

[RazorStar 4,025]

If definitely wasn't the same thing each week. They lost to the Giants because the offense didn't show up. They lost to the Jets because the defense didn't show up. It's like the team wanted to go for maximum drama this year, or they bought into their own hype until december rolled around and it was like "shit we actually need to win more games".

[seanbrock 1,684]

Is the Chiefs breakdown because Alex Smith/the offense regressed in key moments or because the defense shit the bed? Just saw they had a 4,000 yard passer as well as a 1,000 yard runner (Hunt), receiver (Hill), and TE (Kelce). That's crazy.

 

Didn't they have one of the better defenses last year?

Wonder what would have happened for them had Eric Berry stayed healthy.