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Super Bowl LII: Patriots V. Eagles

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The end of the 2017 NFL season is almost upon us, with just one final game on the horizon and everything on the line between the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Super Bowl LII is the tale of two quarterbacks, not because Nick Foles and Tom Brady are directly comparable in many ways, but because they may each hold the key to their side of the ball in different ways.

 

Nick Foles may be the single most high variance quarterback in the game.

 

His performance in the NFC championship game was genuinely remarkable. It was the fifth-highest grade we have given any quarterback in the playoffs (including Super Bowls) over the past 12 years of grading (plus a few bonus, one-off Super Bowl games graded).

 

Foles was so good in that game that he wasn’t downgraded – at all – throughout the game. I’m sure that has happened before, but as one of the longest-standing graders at PFF, I can’t remember the last time I didn’t downgrade a passer over a game.

 

He was actually pressured 11 times in that game by the Vikings, but you wouldn’t have known it, because his passer rating on those plays was 152.1, and he threw two deep touchdowns.

 

His overall PFF grade for that game was 92.9, but it came on the back of three-straight games with grades under 50.0, including a 34.2 against Oakland in Week 16.

 

Foles may be the biggest X-factor in this entire game, because his performance could land literally anywhere on the quarterbacking spectrum, from totally unworkable, to good enough to raise almost any side to victory, and I’m not sure there’s any solid way of predicting where in that range he will fall.

 

We hear all too often about the blueprint being set to beat a particular team, but there is a clear pathway to slowing down Brady and the New England Patriots offense. The problem is that not many teams are even close to possessing the requisite tools for the job.

The Eagles are.

 

It’s no coincidence that the New York Giants handed Brady two defeats in the Super Bowl with the same kind of team, and a very similar game plan.

 

Simply put, you need to pressure Brady at an incredible rate and do so without resorting to the blitz, because Brady has been exceptional against the blitz throughout his career.

 

The Giants pressured Brady in both of those Super Bowls on over 40 percent of his dropbacks, and did so while blitzing at under 20 percent of rushes across both games, 10 percent lower than the league average rate in 2017.

 

In every other Super Bowl, Brady has been pressured under 40 percent of his dropbacks. Even last year’s game against Atlanta backs this theory, because at the point where the Falcons were 28-3 in front, they had put Brady under pressure on 44 percent of dropbacks, but they just ran out of gas over the second half and he ended up facing pressure on just 30 percent of dropbacks for the game.

 

On one of Brady’s few comeback failures – the 2015 AFC championship game against the Denver Broncos, Denver was again able to put him under pressure at that kind of rate, hurrying him on 49.2 percent of his dropbacks, and holding the Patriots to just 18 points overall in the game.

This Eagles team has been the best team in the league all year at generating pressure. They led the league with 271 pressures over the regular season, 27 more than the next-best team. They generated that pressure at a greater rate than anyone else, hurrying the opposing quarterback on average 41 percent of his dropbacks – right around that threshold for slowing Brady.

 

What’s critical, is that they did this typically without blitzing. The Eagles had the 10th-lowest blitz rate in the league, but they generated pressure on 38 percent of their rushes featuring no blitz – again, the highest rate in the league.

 

And why the Eagles might succeed where the Falcons came so close, is that Philadelphia’s defensive front is much deeper. They had seven players this season top 20 total pressures, which is one more than any other team in the league. While the Falcons’ pass-rush relied on a couple of stand out performers, the Eagles far more closely resemble those Giants’ defenses that could run four or more players deep along the defensive line when it comes to generating pressure.

 

The Eagles are as well-equipped as anybody to slow Tom Brady and the Patriots offense down in the only way that has been repeatably successful over the years, but there is of course one caveat to that – it still may not be enough.

 

Brady is just that good that he might beat that game plan anyway. He led the NFL this season in passer rating under pressure at 96.6. That’s almost 10.0 points higher than the average passer rating across all quarterbacks on all plays this year. Put another way, Brady under pressure this year had a passer rate 10.0 points higher than the average quarterback did on any given down, so as much as pressure is important, it’s really the volume of it and how decisive that pressure is – and the cumulative effect it could take over a game – that is more important.

 

How effectively the Eagles are able to replicate that Giants’ game plan is going to determine whether they can keep Brady and that Patriots offense quiet enough to give themselves a chance.

 

 

PFF

 

 

This one's for all the marbles and I wanted to make the thread title before Vin.

Birds 52 Pats 3, who ya got?

Edited by Olenna4Ever

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Patriots. 28-23

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Pats win by scoring last with less than :50 seconds left on the clock.

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Pats win by scoring last with less than :50 seconds left on the clock.

Been there, done that. Let's get creative here Vin

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There's 0 chance the Eagles win this. Hell, if it were possible for there to be less than zero chance, it would be that. Congrats to Tom Brady for winning his 6th ring, and making sure the Eagles are still ringless.

 

:Pats: 30

:Eagles: 13

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JD you son of a gun!

 

Stevo was complaining about it.

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The original name was better as it more accurately demonstrates the lack of care that nearly everyone feels toward the game.

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The original name was better as it more accurately demonstrates the lack of care that nearly everyone feels toward the game.

 

The only way it could be worse is if the Jaguars were in it.

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A Super Bowl with two of the most hated teams ever is hardly boring. Millions across the nation are seething with hatred at one of these teams. I know I love seeing NFCE teams get their asses handed to them. The Eagles also have a very hate-able fanbase but we just feed off of that. We use it to be even more psychotic and obnoxious. It makes us stronger.

 

I think the Pats fanbase feeds off a similar type of energy but obviously very different since they've won all 4 major sports titles at least once in the last decade. lol

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The only way it could be worse is if the Jaguars were in it.

doctor-who-rain-sad.gif

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This SB is similar to Colts/Saints in terms of feeling for me...

 

Fuck em both.

 

If the Hoodie loses to a backup in Nick Foles I will cease to believe that there is a god.

 

This hell hole will go into a chaos never seen before and I'm not sure anyone will survive including myself.

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Finally I can root for the Eagles.

Pederson reached out to the GOAT, Brett Favre, to come talk to the team Saturday a bit.

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I was gonna make another topic for this, but it seems redundant, so I'll simply leave it here:

 

"The Upset of the Year"

 

Or: Why the Eagles are about to pull off what everyone told them they had no chance to do a month ago.

 

Sean beat me to posting the PFF article by a few hours, but I'm gonna bring you guys down memory lane here as well.

 

Brady has lost twice in the Superbowl, both to the Giants and Mr. Eli Manning. Or more appropriately, to Mr. Eli Manning's defense. PFF's article nailed it exactly. The key to beating Brady is to bring pressure without using the blitz. Even if you look at his regular season defeats, the same thing occurred in many of them. In situations this year where his defense didn't just blow, it came down to the defense generating pressure on Brady without blitzing him on a regular basis.

 

Tom Brady's first Super Bowl was against the St. Louis Rams and an established veteran starter named Kurt Warner. They were massive underdogs, Brady was a backup QB that had taken over from an injured starter earlier in the year, and not many gave them much of a chance.

 

History is about to repeat itself.

 

Tom Brady is the GOAT, no question, 100%, period. But the Eagles have been told by many- including myself- since the start of these playoffs that they were done. Without Carson Wentz, they had no shot. They were going to lose to the Falcons, since the Falcons were a veteran playoff team. They nearly did, but the defense bent but did not break on the final possession. Then it was the Vikings turn, they were a team of destiny, going to be the first team to host the Superbowl, and they got downright flattened by 31 points. Once again, no one is giving the Eagles much of a chance, perhaps even more so than the first two times, and you better believe the Eagles have taken notice of that.

 

Tom Brady is going to lead a drive in the final minutes of the second half and the Patriots will take the lead. But Nick Foles will come out with less than a minute left and lead the Eagles down for a FG in the waning seconds of SB 52 to take one away from the GOAT and finally send the Patriots on the beginning of their downward slope.

 

Belichek bails on the Patriots as per the rumor earlier, Gisele leaves Tom Brady because he lost to fucking Nick Foles, and the entire Patriots organization devolves into in-fighting over whose fault it is they traded Jimmy Garrapolo.

 

And Nick Foles quietly resumes his backup role, smiling that smug smile, because he was the one who brought Philly a Lombardi first, before Carson Wentz could.

 

:Eagles: 24

:Pats: 23

Edited by Thanatos
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I was gonna make another topic for this, but it seems redundant, so I'll simply leave it here:

 

"The Upset of the Year"

 

Or: Why the Eagles are about to pull off what everyone told them they had no chance to do a month ago.

 

Sean beat me to posting the PFF article by a few hours, but I'm gonna bring you guys down memory lane here as well.

 

Brady has lost twice in the Superbowl, both to the Giants and Mr. Eli Manning. Or more appropriately, to Mr. Eli Manning's defense. PFF's article nailed it exactly. The key to beating Brady is to bring pressure without using the blitz. Even if you look at his regular season defeats, the same thing occurred in many of them. In situations this year where his defense didn't just blow, it came down to the defense generating pressure on Brady without blitzing him on a regular basis.

 

Tom Brady's first Super Bowl was against the St. Louis Rams and an established veteran starter named Kurt Warner. They were massive underdogs, Brady was a backup QB that had taken over from an injured starter earlier in the year, and not many gave them much of a chance.

 

History is about to repeat itself.

 

Tom Brady is the GOAT, no question, 100%, period. But the Eagles have been told by many- including myself- since the start of these playoffs that they were done. Without Carson Wentz, they had no shot. They were going to lose to the Falcons, since the Falcons were a veteran playoff team. They nearly did, but the defense bent but did not break on the final possession. Then it was the Vikings turn, they were a team of destiny, going to be the first team to host the Superbowl, and they got downright flattened by 31 points. Once again, no one is giving the Eagles much of a chance, perhaps even more so than the first two times, and you better believe the Eagles have taken notice of that.

 

Tom Brady is going to lead a drive in the final minutes of the second half and the Patriots will take the lead. But Nick Foles will come out with less than a minute left and lead the Eagles down for a FG in the waning seconds of SB 52 to take one away from the GOAT and finally send the Patriots on the beginning of their downward slope.

 

Belichek bails on the Patriots as per the rumor earlier, Gisele leaves Tom Brady because he lost to fucking Nick Foles, and the entire Patriots organization devolves into in-fighting over whose fault it is they traded Jimmy Garrapolo.

 

And Nick Foles quietly resumes his backup role, smiling that smug smile, because he was the one who brought Philly a Lombardi first, before Carson Wentz could.

 

:Eagles: 24

:Pats: 23

 

If this isn't the biggest pile of horsehit I've read from a non-Eagles fan idk what is.

 

The Jacksonville Jags have the best front four in all of football. Sure. The Eagles have depth but do you really... REALLY think that Bellichick is going to allow his team to get crucified by a strong front essentially two weeks in a row.

 

The amazing thing about the Jags is... they almost won that game. They did everything they had to do to stop the Pats... but ultimately, the ineptitude of their coaching is what did them in.

 

If you watch that Jags game closely...they very well followed the only rushing 4 mantra.

 

The Jags have incredible speed at LB and a great secondary so moving the ball against them when they don't blitz is going to be a challenge.

 

The Eagles have a far weaker LB corps than the Jags, and their secondary outside of Jenkins leaves much to be desired.

 

I guarantee you the Eagles probably have initial success, but the Patriots oil to the machine is utilizing the middle of the field between the hashes with their backs and Gronk.

 

Trust and believe the Eagles don't want to give up the big play to Cooks or Gronk, so expect a lot of double safety action.

 

With the obvious threat of the Eagles pass rush, the Patriots are the absolute best team in the league at using multiple TE sets to

 

A) Block

B) Misdirect and recognize defensive coverage for Brady to read at the LOS

C) Chip and receive

D) Line up in the slot and cause some serious mismatches

 

The Patriots offense is completely diverse enough and between Brady and Belly learning from two weeks ago, they aren't going to let a defense run amok on Brady.

 

The strength of the Eagles, will not beat the strength of the Patriots.

 

The weakness of the Eagles will not beat the weakness of the Patriots.

 

The real Nick Foles will be in play on Sunday against and incredibly well prepared defense that is opportunistic and will make him pay on the lack of accurate throws.

 

The big stage is a lot different than the familiar home ground of Philadelphia where Foles has succeeded.

 

Even if their defense shows up, I guarantee you the difference to this game will be the QB play.

 

Brady won't lose a game for you... a backup who has yet to face competent competition since the regular season... is about to learn the hard way from the very best in the Hoodie.

 

I don't care how much you rant and moan about being the underdog...

 

Brady has had that mentality since day one.

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Like the Falcons, the Jaguars ran out of gas. They could not consistently keep pressure on Brady in the second half with a four man front and resorting to blitzing in the late 3rd and early-mid 4th and Brady tore them apart. So yes, depth is key to beating Brady because you have to be able to go 100% for all sixty minutes. And the Eagles defensive front is even stronger than the Jaguars in terms of sheer matchup potential with the Patriots, because they are deep, not simply skilled at the starting positions.

 

Also, yes, the ineptitude of coaching helped, because the Jags went away from man-to-man and went to zone. Doug Pederson > Doug Marrone.

 

Nick Foles is going the blow the roof off the Vikings stadium after doing it a week ago vs the Vikings.

 

Also, lest you forget, the Hoodie lost when he was 18-0 with the greatest offense in NFL history and to a vastly inferior team precisely because the Giants D-line had some ridiculous depth to it. They are the greatest duo of all time, they are not invulnerable to making mistakes.

 

Your inane writings cannot stop the glory of this runaway train, even if you hate that a team you used to root for before jumping ship for the Falcons after the Eagles sucked and then jumping ship for the Raiders after the Falcons sucked- and now the Raiders suck so wonder where you are going next- is about to win the Superbowl.

 

This is just like last year where right after you jumped ship like the bandwagon-hopping fairweather fan that you are, the Falcons went straight to the SB. Only this time, it's going to be worse, because Philly is going to finish the job.

Edited by Thanatos

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Another important thing is pressure up the middle. Giants did it by putting Tuck inside on 3rd down. Broncos did it with their line and they all had guys on the outside to finish plays. Eagles have the same thing. Not only do they have a rotation but they've only had to play 2 home games with 2 extra byes. Granted that works in the Pats favor too but idk man I think it really works in favor that rotation.

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If the Eagles win the SB this year.

 

Feel free to ban me from this site until Week 1 of next year.

 

Pats are going to steamroll.

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oh man, why do you make me want the Eagles to win. Like I know you're dumb charles but what the fuck is wrong with you.

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oh man, why do you make me want the Eagles to win. Like I know you're dumb charles but what the fuck is wrong with you.

 

There's nothing wrong with me.

 

Philadelphia isn't even going to sniff the Lombardi this year.

 

Ban me till Week 1 of the 2018 season of NFL if the Eagles win, but you MUST root for the Eagles.

 

Do I have any other takers?

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I am not upholding full offseason bans for anyone.. Whether you take it or not so get a little more creative with your bets. lol

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I am not upholding full offseason bans for anyone.. Whether you take it or not so get a little more creative with your bets. lol

 

Fine. TGP collectively can change my username, avatar, Signature, my whole profile as long as it pertains to the Eagles until Week 1 of next year at will if the Eagles begin the end of the world.

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Fine. TGP collectively can change my username, avatar, Signature, my whole profile as long as it pertains to the Eagles until Week 1 of next year at will if the Eagles begin the end of the world.

Still not creative enough, pretty sure you had an eagle username way back when :yao:

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