I don't like the idea of going for a QB twice in one round and here's why. You're investing heavy capital in two guys that will have to battle for one job. What confidence is a QB going to have in their value to a team if you immediately make them scrap for the job? There is little trust from the coaching staff in that situation. We saw how badly Kizer struggled when the staff turned against him. Using two top 5 picks in a situation where one of them is almost guaranteed to fail because you didn't believe in them.
Here's two scenarios I'd play through if I'm the Browns. I'm using the Fanspeak On the Clock simulator to run the first one, then First Pick where I can run trades on the second one.
Option A: QB at #1, BPA through next several picks, safe QB pick in R3 or R4. (RG3 and Kirk approach)
#1: Sam Darnold - QB - USC
I'm mixed on this one. Rosen hasn't flat out said he won't play for the Browns, but it seems to me that he has no desire to be a part of the franchise. Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield are on the table here. Allen is immediately out for me because of his inconsistencies and decision-making skills. He's not on par with Baker or Darnold. The thing that makes this difficult here is the character. I love Baker but he has some questions surrounding that arrest and running from the cops. Darnold is completely clean off the field. Baker also is going to worry people with his height. I think Darnold is a little safer even with his problems.
#4: Minkah Fitzpatrick - S - Alabama
Minkah is the best defensive back in this class according to pretty much everyone, and I would agree with it. He can wear any hat you want him to on the defense, although I think his best fit is at safety. He's shown the ability to work as a nickel or even a linebacker. Safe pick that fills a need. If Bradley Chubb is on the board here (he is in this sim) I'd have to weigh my options. I like Nassib/Ogbah across from Garrett enough to stick to Minkah.
#33: Derrius Guice - RB - LSU
By the grace of god (Fanspeak sucking ass) Guice is available at #33. He's arguably a better runner than Barkley in terms of vision, and has better power. He's not the same athletic freak but he does fill the role of RB without investing a first round pick in the position. Ronald Jones II fits the bill here too.
#35: Jaire Alexander - CB - Louisville
Isaiah Oliver (and Roquan Smith for some dumb reason) are still on the board in this run, but I'll take Alexander here. Minkah gives me room to roll the dice on a cornerback with better upside than anyone but Josh Jackson in this class. Alexander is an elite athlete who needs to show more confidence in his play, but can run with any receiver out there. The holes in the secondary are pretty much filled with these two selections.
#64: Marcell Ateman - WR - Oklahoma State
I'm a huge fan of Ateman's game. He's a legitimate potential WR1 at the next level due to his size and hands. He can catch anything that comes his way and has a massive reach advantage over almost any defensive back. He hasn't shown an ability to separate with his feet and may need to be given a lot of 50/50 balls, but it fills a need at WR that Corey Coleman has not been able to deal with.
#65: Brian O'Neill - OT - Pittsburgh
There were some better options at tackle here on the board that I don't believe will be available in the real draft, so I've gone with O'Neill out of Pitt. He has great length and has the feel of a developmental guy with great length and huge potential. He's still a work in progress, but he could become a future blindside protector for the Browns. Here is where I REALLY start considering taking another QB. Some names on the board in the sim that make sense. Kurt Benkert, Mike White, Kyle Lauletta, and Luke Falk. I think Mason Rudolph could be here as well.
#103: Mike White - QB - Western Kentucky
I love both White and Benkert here. The sim had both Lauletta and Falk getting taken in R3, so my options are between a guy who is more pro-ready today but has average qualities vs a guy who has great upside but less experience in a pro-style offense. This is the Kirk Cousins to Darnold's RGIII. I think he has the ability to start out of the gate if necessary, but with Darnold having control it may take time for White's status to be figured out here.
#125: Cedrick Wilson - WR - Boise State
Wilson is a good athlete with the smoothness in his route-running to be a slot weapon for the Browns. He's an immediate upgrade over most of the receivers on the roster and provides a potential starter for them. I considered Texas Tech WR Keke Coutee here, but I haven't seen enough tape on him to be comfortable addressing him.
Trade out of #1 pick, BPA in R1, QB in R2 or R3 (Just doing three rounds here instead of 4)
Green Bay has traded #14, #45 and their 2019 1st rounder for the #1 overall pick
#4: Saquon Barkley - RB - Penn State
I may have my doubts about Barkley (he isn't the next AP) but he's a damn good RB who fills the hole in the backfield for the Browns. Curiously enough, Josh Rosen is still on the board here. I'd love to break from the strategy, but it wouldn't make sense to move from #1 and then try to take Rosen at 4. The "generational" running back it is!
#14: Courtland Sutton - WR - SMU
Baker and Lamar are on the board here, but I doubt Baker makes it this far in the actual draft. Regardless, I need to still be taking weapons to place around whatever QB ends up getting the starting job. Calvin Ridley makes a lot of sense because of his ability to separate with nuanced route-running, but he's not a "go get it" type of target. I need a go get it target for whatever QB I install to run the offense. Sutton offers that with his long frame and jump ball ability.
#33: Lamar Jackson - QB - Louisville
Now here is where it gets fun. I'm not sold on Lamar's ability as a traditional QB, but the Browns just need a playmaker who can do something with the football in their hands. Hue Jackson has shown no fear in running his quarterbacks with guys like Kizer and Hogan, so he'll have a field day with Lamar. As much as I'd like to go somewhere else and continue to bolster the team before taking someone like Benkert, White, or Lauletta, Lamar is too good to pass up at #33.
#35: Harold Landry - DE/OLB - Boston College
I wanted to repeat my pick of Jaire Alexander right here, but his health is too big of a question mark without having proper insurance. I haven't gotten deep into the safeties, but the signs aren't promising. With Isaiah Oliver not on the board here, my options were between some iffy cornerbacks who may not contribute immediately and a ready-made edge bender who can step in day one to generate pressure. He's not big enough to be much of a factor in the run game, but Landry has impressive burst and athleticism. He'd push for snaps immediately against Ogbah, and likely get the majority of work on passing downs.
#45: Jaire Alexander - CB - Louisville
I wanted to put down Mike Hughes from UCF here for variety at CB, but I haven't seen his tape yet. I've heard he's a project though, and don't feel comfortable with that. Jaire still being on the board and a dire need in the secondary makes this a necessity, even if it's a dangerous pick. A couple other defensive backs were in play here.
#64: Derrick Nnadi - DT - Florida State
The Browns need somebody to put beside Danny Shelton and Nnadi would step in as the starter immediately. He has good size and a well-rounded game. He isn't the threat as a pass rusher as someone like Maurice Hurst, but is worthy of the second round selection. We continue to plug in defensive holes here while adding quality talent.
#65: Justin Reid - S - Stanford
I haven't seen Reid yet but I've heard he is valued as a late first or early second rounder with good range and the upside of his brother (Eric Reid). This is filling a need, although I'm unsure if I'd rather have him or some of the other options on the board such as Jordan Whitehead and Jessie Bates III.
I think both routes could see success, as long as you're willing to take a QB that can fight for the starting job with Kizer straight out of the gate. You can't take a late rounder project like Tanner Lee with the hopes of hitting a home run. You need someone at the position that can win you games with the talent around them. If I'm the Browns, I'm doing everything in my power to get Rosen in the building then putting Kurt Benkert or Mike White behind him with a 3rd round pick.
Edited by Chernobyl426, 15 February 2018 - 01:04 AM.