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  1. 6 points
    Hey everyone, it's been a long time coming, but I'm finally ready to put up the results of what I've been working on over the season. I wanted to find a way to adjust a QB's play for what his defense does, and see how often a guy can overcome a bad performance from his defense, or likewise, fail to win even when the defense has a stellar game. In order to do that I needed a whole lot of data. Every single game a QB started or played most of the game (including postseason), the average amount of points a defense allowed in each year, and how often a QB won in those situations. So doing a lot of number crunching, and by examining the years in the Super Bowl Era, I came up with a list of 102 QB's, sorted by 4 separate eras marked by important rule changes or historical reasons. To qualify for this list, a QB must have had 90 starts (including postseason), or 80 starts in the dead ball era (14 game seasons meant I needed a little leeway). Starts in this case are games where the QB played most of or all of the game. (Tom Brady doesn't get credit for starting the game where Bernard Pollard broke his leg, for example). By having the data for all of the eras, you can find the expected win percentage of a QB in games where their defense played well, and the expected win percentage when their defense played poorly. This list is sorted by the player with the most wins above replacement in a 16 game season, to the player with the least. With all of that in mind, let's go ahead and start this list. Current List: Tier 7: Garbage (2 or more wins below the average starter a season) 102. Archie Manning (New Orleans Saints) (-2.886) Tier 6: Career Backup (1-2 wins below the average starter a season) 101. Chris Miller (Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams) (-1.335) 100. Jeff George (Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders) (-1.162) 99. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets, Bucs) (-1.123) 98. Steve DeBerg (San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Bucs and Kansas City Chiefs) (-1.055) 97. Norm Snead (Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants) (-1.028) Tier 5: Journeyman (0.5-1 wins below the average starter a season) 96. Jon Kitna (Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions) (-0.865) 95. Ron Jaworski (Philadelphia Eagles) (-0.841) 94. Vinny Testaverde (Tampa Bay Bucs, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets) (-0.807) 93. Jim Harbaugh (Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, and San Diego Chargers) (-0.790) 92. Ken O'Brien (New York Jets) (-0.743) 91. Kerry Collins (Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans) (-0.713) 90. Jim Everett (Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints) (-0.602) 89. Greg Landry (Detroit Lions) (-0.586) 88. Lynn Dickey (Green Bay Packers) (-0.533) 87. Steve Beuerlein (Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers) (-0.530) 86. Joe Ferguson (Buffalo Bills) (-0.507) Tier 4: Average (0.5 wins above to 0.5 wins below the average starter a season) 85. Aaron Brooks (New Orleans Saints) (-0.414) 84. Steve Bartkowski (Atlanta Falcons) (-0.413) 83. Daunte Culpepper (Minnesota Vikings) (-0.282) 82. Doug Williams (Washington Redskins) (-0.270) 81. Trent Dilfer (Tampa Bay Bucs and Baltimore Ravens) (-0.261) 80. Drew Bledsoe (New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys) (-0.253) 79. Richard Todd (New York Jets) (-0.249) 78. Jim Zorn (Seattle Seahawks) (-0.211) 77. Chris Chandler (Arizona Cardinals, Houston Oilers and Atlanta Falcons) (-0.117) 76. Jeff Blake (Cincinnati Bengals) (-0.110) 75. Jake Plummer (Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos) (-0.025) 74. Bernie Kosar (Cleveland Browns) (0.000) 73. Dan Pastorini (Houston Oilers) (0.051) 72. Jeff Garcia (San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.075) 71. Warren Moon (Houston Oilers, Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.081) 70. Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.091) 69. Brian Sipe (Cleveland Browns) (0.115) 68. Ken Anderson (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.147) 67. Jay Cutler (Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears) (0.165) 66. Bert Jones (Baltimore Colts) (0.218) 65. John Hadl (San Diego Chargers, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers) (0.238) 64. Boomer Esiason (Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets) (0.260) 63. Jim Plunkett (New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers and Oakland/L.A. Raiders) (0.286) 62. Jim Hart (St. Louis Cardinals) (0.294) 61. Craig Morton (Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Denver Broncos) (0.342) 60. Mark Brunell (Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins) (0.350) 59. Neil O'Donnell (Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets) (0.362) 58. Gus Frerotte (Washington Redskins, Lions, Broncos, Bengals, Vikings, Dolphins, Rams) (0.367) 57. Neil Lomax (St. Louis/Arizona Cardinals) (0.368) 56. Tommy Kramer (Minnesota Vikings) (0.375) 55. Dave Krieg (Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.379) 54. Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions) (0.412) 53. Marc Bulger (St. Louis Rams) (0.475) 52. Billy Kilmer (San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints and Washington Redskins) (0.476) 51. Jake Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) (0.483) Tier 3: Good (0.5-1 wins above the average starter a season) 50. Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals, Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals) (0.568) 49. Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) (0.591) 48. Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) (0.591) (1.266 without adjustment) 47. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.608) 46. Bobby Hebert (New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons) (0.610) 45. Philip Rivers (San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers) (0.614) 44. Phil Simms (New York Giants) (0.639) 43. Roman Gabriel (Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.653) 42. Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans) (0.719) 41. Brad Johnson (Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.722) 40. Dan Fouts (San Diego Chargers) (0.738) 39. Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys) (0.748) 38. Trent Green (Kansas City Chiefs) (0.821) 37. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) (0.840) 36. Jim McMahon (Chicago Bears) (0.875) (1.705 without adjustment) 35. Eli Manning (New York Giants) (0.884) 34. Michael Vick (Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.890) 33. Steve Grogan (New England Patriots) (0.989) Tier 2: Franchise QB (1-2 wins above the average starter a season) 32. Joe Namath (New York Jets) (1.002) 30t. Jay Schroeder (Washington Redskins and Los Angeles Raiders) (1.056) 30t. Joe Theismann (Washington Redskins) (1.056) 29. Steve McNair (Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans) (1.064) 28. Bob Griese (Miami Dolphins) (1.069) 27. John Brodie (San Francisco 49ers) (1.071) 26. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) (1.086) 25. Fran Tarkenton (Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants) (1.157) 24. Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.186) 23. Sonny Jurgensen (Washington Redskins) (1.219) 22. Rich Gannon (Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders) (1.234) 21. Dan Marino (Miami Dolphins) (1.407) 20. Len Dawson (Kansas City Chiefs) (1.451) 19. Randall Cunningham (Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings) (1.457) 18. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) (1.464) 17. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) (1.511) 16. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) (1.523) 15. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.539) 14. Drew Brees (San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints) (1.777) 13. Brett Favre (Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings) (1.795) 12. Jim Kelly (Buffalo Bills) (1.841) 11. Kurt Warner (St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals) (1.873) 10. John Elway (Denver Broncos) (1.957) Tier 1: Legend (2 or more wins above the average starter a season) 9. Ken Stabler (Oakland Raiders, Houston Oilers and New Orleans Saints) (2.174) 8. Steve Young (Tampa Bay Bucs and San Francisco 49ers) (2.198) 7. Roger Staubach (Dallas Cowboys) (2.224) 6. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) (2.248) 5. Danny White (Dallas Cowboys) (2.284) 4. Joe Montana (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (2.441) 3. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos) (3.065) 2. Daryle Lamonica (Oakland Raiders) (3.365) 1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) (3.532)
  2. 6 points
  3. 6 points
  4. 6 points
    Hello (again) all...was going through a bunch of old forum profiles, found this one and felt a bit of nostalgia for the good old days. It's been a HOT minute since I was last here. Not sure how "back" I am, but I hope to hang around and get into some of the discussions when I can. I miss having a group I can talk sports with. -P4L
  5. 5 points
    With the 69th (nice) pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select... Juan Thornhill, S, UVA With the 70th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select... Lonnie Johnson Jr., CB, Kentucky
  6. 5 points
    So we have our TGP offseason highlight. Razor, I look forward to logging in every day to see this.
  7. 4 points
    I'm not sure there are many, if any at all, Falcons fans here so maybe I'll be talking to myself - but I do that on a daily basis so I guess who cares at this point! First thing, I actually liked seeing 2 offensive lineman for the Falcons. I'm not sure if they were the correct 2, but only time will tell. I really didn't know too much about McGary, but from everything I've read on him, he was expected to go late in the 2nd round to the middle of the 3rd if not a little bit later. This has me a bit skeptical on him. I'm not sure that Atlanta needed to give away a 3rd round pick to grab him but if that's the guy they wanted, you never wait! I really REALLY like the pick of Lindstrom, I know that many had a couple guys higher, but this guy is an absolute mauler and I think he was the best guard in the draft which is a position Atlanta was in desperate need of. Regardless, if things work out they may have just grabbed 2 long term starters along the line. I've seen a few analysts talking about the possibilities that these 2 guys could bring about an offensive line era that of the Harvey Dahl, Tyson Clabo glory days - you know, when the team absolutely sucked but they had a good line... Lol. Second thing, this is an after thought after seeing two offensive lineman in the first - I definitely am still worried about the defense. The Falcons couldn't rush the passer last season AT ALL, and to make it worse they couldn't seem to cover a bloody nose. The one player that was doing well for us (or at least better than the rest) was Robert Alford, and they let him go. I just don't get not grabbing Lindstrom and then moving up and taking a defensive back with that late first. If the Falcons don't take a DB with their next pick, they're going to be in trouble. Lindstrom and McGary better be damn good because Atlanta may very well have to score 35+ points again like in 2017 due to the mere fact that other teams will be scoring at will. I really think they are banking on Desmond Trufant returning to form, but he's been absolutely terrible since going down with an injury a season and a half ago. Also for Jalen Collins to get his head out of his rear and not only play a full season, but also play to his talent level. Quite frankly, the Atlanta secondary is in trouble IMO. I'm hoping for a corner in round 2, but we'll see.
  8. 4 points
    Was searching through google for a football forum. This place popped up. Been quietly stalking the forum seeing how things operate here. Looks like it's a good place to come for some discussion!
  9. 4 points
    Just realized I hadn't told ya'll (sorry for the delay) but I got engaged last week, now I'm elbow deep in wedding planning
  10. 3 points
  11. 3 points
  12. 3 points
    The plot this season was very questionable lol. Oh well. Still one of my all-time favorite shows and I'll miss it.
  13. 3 points
    Lmao with these fucking petitions. If you're not happy with who's writing/producing a movie, don't watch the damn movie. Fucking millennials, man.
  14. 3 points
    I don't see the negativity about the Cleganebowl? I thought it was a cool scene. I guess people wanted a 20 minute fight to the death or something.
  15. 3 points
    So here's my pitch on how to end Game of Thrones. In a major plot twist we learn that Sansa has arrived in Kings Landing/Dragonstone or whatever. She left shortly after Jon and let Bran hold it the fuck down as lord of winterfell. When everyone spends the whole episode being all like "how do we get rid of this bitch without getting bbq'd?" Sansa sneaks into the throne room or maybe even Dany's private quarters, seduces her and after a long and drawn out but also very passionate and captivating lesbian sex scene, Sansa convinces Dany that Jon should be King and everyone lives happily ever after.
  16. 3 points
    51. Jake Delhomme (New Orleans Saints 1997-2002, Carolina Panthers 2003-2009, Cleveland Browns 2010, Houston Texans 2011) 2nd Place Panthers QB Career Record 62-45-0 (57.94%) 34th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 48-18-0 (72.73%) 68th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 14-27-0 (34.15%) 22nd out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 66/107 (61.68%) 15th out of 102 (-36) Wins above Average in a 16 Game Season (0.483) Well that's it, the last of the average quarterbacks on my list. One Jake Delhomme, a QB so unworthy of notice that I'm not even going to say anything about him. Ok fine, that's not fair to the dude. Jake Delhomme's career took a rocky start, he was undrafted in 97, and ended up going to the Saints as a camp arm. Well, they liked enough of what they saw out of him to send him to NFL Europe for a few seasons, where he developed his game, and even won a championship in the developmental league. He ended up being the third string QB for the Saints from 2000 to 2002, but because he did so well in the preseason there was always a clamoring to get him onto the field. Eventually Delhomme decided that he had enough of being a backup and went to Carolina for a chance to compete. His chance came quickly, when Rodney Peete was pulled in halftime of the first game of the season. Delhomme led a 17 point comeback against the Jaguars, and his era had finally arrived in the NFL. Delhomme led 7 game winning drives throughout the season, and got the Panthers into the post season with an 11-5 record. They handled the Cowboys in the wild card round, beat the Rams in a thrilling double OT game ended by a 69 yard TD pass to Steve Smith, and choked out the Andy Reid Eagles in the conference championship in a 14-3 defensive struggle. However Delhomme could not keep the magic going against the New England Patriots in the super bowl, and his best chance at glory came short thanks to the legs of John Kasay, and Adam Vinatieri. The Panthers stayed competitive in Delhomme's time there, but had issues mustering consistent winning seasons due to a combination of injuries, poor coaching, and whatever the hell is in the water in Carolina. The Panthers would make the postseason a few more times, falling to the Seattle Seahawks in the Conference Championship in 2005, and to the Cardinals in the wild card in 2008 after Delhomme started to see age catch up with him. After seeing Delhomme play the worst game of his career against the Cardinals in 08, they decided to extend his contract for 5 years... needless to say that didn't go very well for them, as Delhomme went 4-7 in 2009, throwing 18 Interceptions to just 8 TDs, and the writing was on the wall. Delhomme was cut in the offseason, the Panthers drafted Jimmy Clausen (and Cam Newton the year after that), and Delhomme was left drifting in the breeze. Luckily when shit come down river, Cleveland is right there to pick it up. He spent a season as Cleveland's starter, before hitching a ride to Houston to end out his well traveled career. Delhomme greatly benefited from his coach's style of conservatism. John Fox never met a third down he didn't like to punt on, after all. His defenses were some of the better ones among all QB's on this list, and when the offense needed him to step up and make big plays, he was there a lot of the time, far more often than you'd remember from a guy who was basically just there to get it to Steve Smith. Though his time as a starter was very short, he made the most of his time in Carolina, and helped keep them in the competitor discussion far longer than they probably should have been. Dude was a perennial underdog, but he grinded in the league for years before finally finding a spot to make the best use of his talents. And all of that is worthy is respect. Coming up next: The Good Ones (QB's who average 0.5 - 1 Wins Per Season above Average)
  17. 3 points
  18. 3 points
    If there's one piece of info I'll take away from this series, it's the knowledge that the emoji is brunell.
  19. 3 points
    With the 118th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Hunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson Time to get Aaron Rodgers a new slot guy. Renfrow always finds a way to get open and is as dependable as they come. He won't pick up huge gains but he will be there to pick up that crucial 3rd down. A Julian Edelman of sorts, minus the PEDs.
  20. 3 points
  21. 3 points
    With the 37th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the New York Giants select... Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson With the 38th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select... Drew Lock, QB, Missouri With the 39th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select... Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss
  22. 3 points
    So I don't want to be that guy, but someone has to. I've noticed it has happened already that people who are on the clock are online and either not checking, or not realizing their pick is up and end up logging off. Since we couldn't finish the mock last year, I'm proposing something that could remedy this and want to know what y'all think... 1. After you make your pick, put "username" is now on the clock under your post. 2. If user is online post it in the chat and try to confirm that they see it. 3. If not online, send a PM to them. Is this overkill? I don't know, but I also feel like we've already wasted time in the first round and you guys know it only gets worse the later we get into it... Edit: Also if you're online, always AT LEAST ONCE check the draft thread if you're participating in it.
  23. 3 points
    Am I the only one who would get a kick out of Pitt holding onto him and just benching him on principle? Icing on the cake if they win without him. Does that make me a bad person?
  24. 3 points
    With the 1st overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals select... Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama The San Francisco 49ers are on the clock. (Sean)
  25. 3 points
    I can half-ass the Titans, I at least know what team needs are and there are plenty of sites with player rankings. This'll give me an excuse to get on here and actually post more often.
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