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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/12/2018 in all areas

  1. 11 points
    Proposed to girlfriend last night. She said yes.
  2. 7 points
  3. 6 points
    Hey everyone, it's been a long time coming, but I'm finally ready to put up the results of what I've been working on over the season. I wanted to find a way to adjust a QB's play for what his defense does, and see how often a guy can overcome a bad performance from his defense, or likewise, fail to win even when the defense has a stellar game. In order to do that I needed a whole lot of data. Every single game a QB started or played most of the game (including postseason), the average amount of points a defense allowed in each year, and how often a QB won in those situations. So doing a lot of number crunching, and by examining the years in the Super Bowl Era, I came up with a list of 102 QB's, sorted by 4 separate eras marked by important rule changes or historical reasons. To qualify for this list, a QB must have had 90 starts (including postseason), or 80 starts in the dead ball era (14 game seasons meant I needed a little leeway). Starts in this case are games where the QB played most of or all of the game. (Tom Brady doesn't get credit for starting the game where Bernard Pollard broke his leg, for example). By having the data for all of the eras, you can find the expected win percentage of a QB in games where their defense played well, and the expected win percentage when their defense played poorly. This list is sorted by the player with the most wins above replacement in a 16 game season, to the player with the least. With all of that in mind, let's go ahead and start this list. Current List: Tier 7: Garbage (2 or more wins below the average starter a season) 102. Archie Manning (New Orleans Saints) (-2.886) Tier 6: Career Backup (1-2 wins below the average starter a season) 101. Chris Miller (Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams) (-1.335) 100. Jeff George (Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders) (-1.162) 99. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets, Bucs) (-1.123) 98. Steve DeBerg (San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Bucs and Kansas City Chiefs) (-1.055) 97. Norm Snead (Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants) (-1.028) Tier 5: Journeyman (0.5-1 wins below the average starter a season) 96. Jon Kitna (Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions) (-0.865) 95. Ron Jaworski (Philadelphia Eagles) (-0.841) 94. Vinny Testaverde (Tampa Bay Bucs, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets) (-0.807) 93. Jim Harbaugh (Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, and San Diego Chargers) (-0.790) 92. Ken O'Brien (New York Jets) (-0.743) 91. Kerry Collins (Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans) (-0.713) 90. Jim Everett (Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints) (-0.602) 89. Greg Landry (Detroit Lions) (-0.586) 88. Lynn Dickey (Green Bay Packers) (-0.533) 87. Steve Beuerlein (Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers) (-0.530) 86. Joe Ferguson (Buffalo Bills) (-0.507) Tier 4: Average (0.5 wins above to 0.5 wins below the average starter a season) 85. Aaron Brooks (New Orleans Saints) (-0.414) 84. Steve Bartkowski (Atlanta Falcons) (-0.413) 83. Daunte Culpepper (Minnesota Vikings) (-0.282) 82. Doug Williams (Washington Redskins) (-0.270) 81. Trent Dilfer (Tampa Bay Bucs and Baltimore Ravens) (-0.261) 80. Drew Bledsoe (New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys) (-0.253) 79. Richard Todd (New York Jets) (-0.249) 78. Jim Zorn (Seattle Seahawks) (-0.211) 77. Chris Chandler (Arizona Cardinals, Houston Oilers and Atlanta Falcons) (-0.117) 76. Jeff Blake (Cincinnati Bengals) (-0.110) 75. Jake Plummer (Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos) (-0.025) 74. Bernie Kosar (Cleveland Browns) (0.000) 73. Dan Pastorini (Houston Oilers) (0.051) 72. Jeff Garcia (San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.075) 71. Warren Moon (Houston Oilers, Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.081) 70. Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.091) 69. Brian Sipe (Cleveland Browns) (0.115) 68. Ken Anderson (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.147) 67. Jay Cutler (Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears) (0.165) 66. Bert Jones (Baltimore Colts) (0.218) 65. John Hadl (San Diego Chargers, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers) (0.238) 64. Boomer Esiason (Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets) (0.260) 63. Jim Plunkett (New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers and Oakland/L.A. Raiders) (0.286) 62. Jim Hart (St. Louis Cardinals) (0.294) 61. Craig Morton (Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Denver Broncos) (0.342) 60. Mark Brunell (Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins) (0.350) 59. Neil O'Donnell (Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets) (0.362) 58. Gus Frerotte (Washington Redskins, Lions, Broncos, Bengals, Vikings, Dolphins, Rams) (0.367) 57. Neil Lomax (St. Louis/Arizona Cardinals) (0.368) 56. Tommy Kramer (Minnesota Vikings) (0.375) 55. Dave Krieg (Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.379) 54. Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions) (0.412) 53. Marc Bulger (St. Louis Rams) (0.475) 52. Billy Kilmer (San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints and Washington Redskins) (0.476) 51. Jake Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) (0.483) Tier 3: Good (0.5-1 wins above the average starter a season) 50. Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals, Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals) (0.568) 49. Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) (0.591) 48. Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) (0.591) (1.266 without adjustment) 47. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.608) 46. Bobby Hebert (New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons) (0.610) 45. Philip Rivers (San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers) (0.614) 44. Phil Simms (New York Giants) (0.639) 43. Roman Gabriel (Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.653) 42. Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans) (0.719) 41. Brad Johnson (Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.722) 40. Dan Fouts (San Diego Chargers) (0.738) 39. Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys) (0.748) 38. Trent Green (Kansas City Chiefs) (0.821) 37. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) (0.840) 36. Jim McMahon (Chicago Bears) (0.875) (1.705 without adjustment) 35. Eli Manning (New York Giants) (0.884) 34. Michael Vick (Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.890) 33. Steve Grogan (New England Patriots) (0.989) Tier 2: Franchise QB (1-2 wins above the average starter a season) 32. Joe Namath (New York Jets) (1.002) 30t. Jay Schroeder (Washington Redskins and Los Angeles Raiders) (1.056) 30t. Joe Theismann (Washington Redskins) (1.056) 29. Steve McNair (Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans) (1.064) 28. Bob Griese (Miami Dolphins) (1.069) 27. John Brodie (San Francisco 49ers) (1.071) 26. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) (1.086) 25. Fran Tarkenton (Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants) (1.157) 24. Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.186) 23. Sonny Jurgensen (Washington Redskins) (1.219) 22. Rich Gannon (Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders) (1.234) 21. Dan Marino (Miami Dolphins) (1.407) 20. Len Dawson (Kansas City Chiefs) (1.451) 19. Randall Cunningham (Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings) (1.457) 18. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) (1.464) 17. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) (1.511) 16. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) (1.523) 15. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.539) 14. Drew Brees (San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints) (1.777) 13. Brett Favre (Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings) (1.795) 12. Jim Kelly (Buffalo Bills) (1.841) 11. Kurt Warner (St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals) (1.873) 10. John Elway (Denver Broncos) (1.957) Tier 1: Legend (2 or more wins above the average starter a season) 9. Ken Stabler (Oakland Raiders, Houston Oilers and New Orleans Saints) (2.174) 8. Steve Young (Tampa Bay Bucs and San Francisco 49ers) (2.198) 7. Roger Staubach (Dallas Cowboys) (2.224) 6. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) (2.248) 5. Danny White (Dallas Cowboys) (2.284) 4. Joe Montana (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (2.441) 3. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos) (3.065) 2. Daryle Lamonica (Oakland Raiders) (3.365) 1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) (3.532)
  4. 6 points
  5. 6 points
  6. 6 points
    Hello (again) all...was going through a bunch of old forum profiles, found this one and felt a bit of nostalgia for the good old days. It's been a HOT minute since I was last here. Not sure how "back" I am, but I hope to hang around and get into some of the discussions when I can. I miss having a group I can talk sports with. -P4L
  7. 5 points
    With the 69th (nice) pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select... Juan Thornhill, S, UVA With the 70th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select... Lonnie Johnson Jr., CB, Kentucky
  8. 5 points
    So we have our TGP offseason highlight. Razor, I look forward to logging in every day to see this.
  9. 5 points
    " Baby, I've looked at the tape and I've come to the conclusion that you have perennial wife talent. The tape doesn't lie. Will you marry me? "
  10. 4 points
    I'm not sure there are many, if any at all, Falcons fans here so maybe I'll be talking to myself - but I do that on a daily basis so I guess who cares at this point! First thing, I actually liked seeing 2 offensive lineman for the Falcons. I'm not sure if they were the correct 2, but only time will tell. I really didn't know too much about McGary, but from everything I've read on him, he was expected to go late in the 2nd round to the middle of the 3rd if not a little bit later. This has me a bit skeptical on him. I'm not sure that Atlanta needed to give away a 3rd round pick to grab him but if that's the guy they wanted, you never wait! I really REALLY like the pick of Lindstrom, I know that many had a couple guys higher, but this guy is an absolute mauler and I think he was the best guard in the draft which is a position Atlanta was in desperate need of. Regardless, if things work out they may have just grabbed 2 long term starters along the line. I've seen a few analysts talking about the possibilities that these 2 guys could bring about an offensive line era that of the Harvey Dahl, Tyson Clabo glory days - you know, when the team absolutely sucked but they had a good line... Lol. Second thing, this is an after thought after seeing two offensive lineman in the first - I definitely am still worried about the defense. The Falcons couldn't rush the passer last season AT ALL, and to make it worse they couldn't seem to cover a bloody nose. The one player that was doing well for us (or at least better than the rest) was Robert Alford, and they let him go. I just don't get not grabbing Lindstrom and then moving up and taking a defensive back with that late first. If the Falcons don't take a DB with their next pick, they're going to be in trouble. Lindstrom and McGary better be damn good because Atlanta may very well have to score 35+ points again like in 2017 due to the mere fact that other teams will be scoring at will. I really think they are banking on Desmond Trufant returning to form, but he's been absolutely terrible since going down with an injury a season and a half ago. Also for Jalen Collins to get his head out of his rear and not only play a full season, but also play to his talent level. Quite frankly, the Atlanta secondary is in trouble IMO. I'm hoping for a corner in round 2, but we'll see.
  11. 4 points
    Was searching through google for a football forum. This place popped up. Been quietly stalking the forum seeing how things operate here. Looks like it's a good place to come for some discussion!
  12. 4 points
    Just realized I hadn't told ya'll (sorry for the delay) but I got engaged last week, now I'm elbow deep in wedding planning
  13. 4 points
    Let's all take a moment and appreciate how old we all are now that cherry's out here getting married.
  14. 4 points
    Oh, so this is your fault.
  15. 3 points
  16. 3 points
    If there's one piece of info I'll take away from this series, it's the knowledge that the emoji is brunell.
  17. 3 points
  18. 3 points
    With the 37th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the New York Giants select... Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson With the 38th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select... Drew Lock, QB, Missouri With the 39th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select... Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss
  19. 3 points
    So I don't want to be that guy, but someone has to. I've noticed it has happened already that people who are on the clock are online and either not checking, or not realizing their pick is up and end up logging off. Since we couldn't finish the mock last year, I'm proposing something that could remedy this and want to know what y'all think... 1. After you make your pick, put "username" is now on the clock under your post. 2. If user is online post it in the chat and try to confirm that they see it. 3. If not online, send a PM to them. Is this overkill? I don't know, but I also feel like we've already wasted time in the first round and you guys know it only gets worse the later we get into it... Edit: Also if you're online, always AT LEAST ONCE check the draft thread if you're participating in it.
  20. 3 points
    Am I the only one who would get a kick out of Pitt holding onto him and just benching him on principle? Icing on the cake if they win without him. Does that make me a bad person?
  21. 3 points
    I can half-ass the Titans, I at least know what team needs are and there are plenty of sites with player rankings. This'll give me an excuse to get on here and actually post more often.
  22. 3 points
    Competing teams: 1. Kansas City 11-3 2. Houston 10-4 3. New England 9-5 4. Pittsburgh 8-5-1 5. Los Angeles Chargers 11-3 6. Baltimore 8-6 --- 7. Indianapolis 8-6 8. Tennessee 8-6 9. Miami 7-7 10. Cleveland 6-7-1 10. Cleveland Browns Potential Seeds: 6 Cleveland is on the fringest of fringe scenarios to make it in, and really shouldn’t be considered in the hunt. However, there is a single set of events that allows them in, and it takes a tie to get that far. The easy part is winning the games on their schedule… from there, it’s up to the hands of fate. Week 16 Washington beats Tennessee New York Giants beats Indianapolis Los Angeles Chargers beats Baltimore Cleveland beats Cincinnati Week 17 Indianapolis and Tennessee tie Cleveland beats Baltimore Miami either loses in week 16 to the Jaguars, or week 17 to the Bills. So you can’t exactly consider their odds realistic, but stranger things have happened in the NFL. Browns should take pride in this season regardless, and finishing 8-7-1 would be a great boon for the future next year. 9. Miami Dolphins Potential Seeds 3, 4, 6 Despite being 7-7 right now, due to the way the seeds are shaping up, they could potentially go as high as the 3 seed, but that would require some unlikely results. The Dolphins can win the AFC East if they win out against the Jaguars and Bills (which is possible), and have the Patriots lose out against the Bills and Jets (which is impossible). But assuming the impossible does happen, Miami would have a tiebreaker on Baltimore if they finished with the same record and won their divisions, and if Pittsburgh won the division at 8-7-1, they’d be a half game behind the Fish. A loss will eliminate them entirely, but they can still make a wild-card if they win out and the Patriots win a game. If they tie with the Titans at 9-7, with the Titans beating the Colts in Week 17, they have H2H on them. If they tie with the Colts at 9-7 with the Colts beating the Titans in week 17, they lose the spot since the Colts have H2H on them. With all that said, if the Colts and Titans both win in week 16, it doesn’t matter what the Dolphins do, they can’t secure the wild card. 8. Tennessee Titans Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 The Titans are a very interesting team. While they do not control their own destiny, if things fall a certain way, they could still be looking at a first round bye this year. Granted that would take a lot of finagling, but assuming they win out, all they need is a Baltimore loss at some point, thanks a crucial week 17 matchup between them and the Colts. Winning out, having the AFC North champion finish with less that 10 wins, having the Texans lose out and the Patriots losing a game would put them in the second seed thanks to H2H with the Patriots. A loss in week 17 would put them out of the race entirely, however with a lot of help they could still sneak into the 6th seed with a Win against Indy and a lot of help in the other games. It’ll be interesting to see what happens down the stretch, they could be a real spanner in the works. 7. Indianapolis Colts Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 The Colts face a similar challenge that the Titans do. They lose the tiebreaker to the Ravens, so they don’t control their destiny unless the Birds drop a game, but they could still sneak into the division title by winning out and having the Texans losing out. Like the Titans, the week 17 game is a must win game for them, they cannot make the playoffs if they lose that one, but they could still sneak into the 6 seed if they lost week 16 to the Giants. Unlike the Titans however, they would need the Patriots to lose both of their games if they wanted to sneak into the 2nd seed, in addition to having the Texans lose out and neither the Steelers or Ravens hitting 10 wins. That’s is a lot to ask for, but the wild-card odds are reasonable at the least. 6. Baltimore Ravens Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 Win out, and you’re in. For the Ravens, it’s almost just that simple. They need to beat some tough teams, but beating the Chargers and Browns will guarantee the 6th seed at the very worst. If Pittsburgh drops a game, they win the North and get at least the 4th. If Houston manages not to win the AFC South, they have the tiebreaker on the Colts and Titans, and could jump up to 3rd, and if the Patriots lost a game down the stretch as well, they could end up the second seed. Once again, it is a lot to expect, but it isn’t outside the realm of possibility. The Ravens can still make the 6th even if they lose a game, all they need is the Dolphins to avoid winning both of their games, or the Titans and Colts winning both of their games. They could even win their division if they lost a single game, provided the Steelers lost out. Well the situation is actually pretty complex if the Patriots, Dolphins, Ravens, Colts and Titans all finish 9-7, because in that case Miami has the division tiebreaker on New England, and takes the 4, while Baltimore takes the tiebreakers over the rest of the pack and steals the 6 seed. If Baltimore were to lose both games, they would not make the playoffs because either the Colts or Titans will get ahead of them by virtue of their week 17 game, even in event of a tie, both of those teams would finish with a better record than 8-8. I mentioned that there was a scenario where the Ravens won out and wouldn’t make the playoffs, so I figure I might as well elaborate on what exactly needs to happen to cause that. If either the Colts or Titans win out, the Steelers win out, and the Texans lose out then you get a situation where Houston and Baltimore are tied for the 6th seed at 10-6, and Houston has the tiebreaker in common games over them. But that’s the most unlikely scenario out there. 5. X- Los Angeles Chargers Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 5 The Chargers did a great job winning against the Chiefs, but still cannot claim the division without some help from the Chiefs. If the Chiefs win out, the Chargers are locked in at the 5 seed, they can’t go below that even if they lost out. However if the Chiefs lose a game, then the Chargers have some flexibility to move around, and having a better record than them will guarantee a first round bye. They could tie the Texans at 12-4, and depending on which game they lose, they would either become the second seed due to common games (Losing to Denver), or the tiebreaker would come down to Strength of Victory (Losing to Baltimore) which would be way too complicated for me to deal with. Winning out and having the Chiefs lose at least once would guarantee the Chargers the first seed. Their scenarios are pretty simple, all things considered. 4. Pittsburgh Steelers Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 The Steelers are still on the knife’s edge, even after beating the Patriots. Only being a half game up on the Ravens means they could lose the division at any moment, and coming up against the Saints next week shouldn’t engender confidence. Still, winning out, having the Pats lose a game, and having the Texans lose out would get them up to the 2 seed. Losing a game isn’t a death sentence, but they would need help to guarantee a playoff spot if that were to happen, since the Ravens could take their division spot by winning out and the Colts or Titans would probably end up with a 10-6 record to remove them from the postseason chase. Losing both games would eliminate the Steelers unless the Ravens managed to lose out as well, so their fates are inexorably linked. 3. New England Patriots Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 The Patriots aren’t quite in the position we’d thought they’d be, but their situation is still very favourable. A Dolphins loss at any point guarantees the East division, and if they manage to beat the Jets or Bills, they’ll have the division. With a tiebreaker on the Texans, and a half game on the Steelers they have good tiebreakers on the teams currently in the lead, but they have a head to head loss to the Titans, and poor tiebreakers against the Ravens, so if they didn’t win out you could still see a lot of nonsense happening. But this is the Pats against the AFC East, these wins are virtually guaranteed, and at 11-5, a single Texans loss would jump them up to the second seed, and if both the Chargers and Chiefs decided losing out was in their fashion, the Patriots could be the top dog by seasons end. Therefore, that’s the most likely scenario because we’re cursed to eternal Patriots hell. 2. X- Houston Texans Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 The Texans have a lot of flexibility, but their playoff situation is very simple. Win and they are in. Win twice and they guarantee a home game at 12-4 and at least the second seed. Houston’s tiebreakers with the Chargers and Chiefs are still dependent on which games they’d lose if they both went 12-4, so it’s hard to say if they’d guarantee the 1 seed for themselves with a single Chiefs and Chargers loss. Of course, losing out means that they are at the mercy of the Colts and Titans, who would both overtake them with a tied 10-6 record. However, they’d still get a wild-card spot from all the scenarios I’ve run. No one has a confirmation that the Texans have clinched a spot, but I’m not seeing a scenario where they end up at worst the 6th seed, thanks to a tiebreaker on the Ravens, by virtue of the fact that the Colts and Titans cannot both be 10-6 to kick them out, and there can be no other 10-6 or better wild-card team. Perhaps my playoff machine is busted, but it looks as though the Texans are at least locked in for the 6th seed at worst. 1. X- Kansas City Chiefs Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 3, 5 Chiefs control their own destiny at this point, win out and get home field advantage, no questions asked. Put a loss on the docket, then things get stupid. With a H2H loss to the Patriots, losing out with the Chargers losing out could drop them down to third seed, since they’d still win the division over the Chargers in that circumstance. A loss to the Raiders on week 17 would probably lose them the division since the Chargers would steal the division title from them with any win. A win and a Chargers and Texans loss would wrap up home field advantage by week 16, but they have a tough bout against the Seahawks this week. The difference between a home game and a bye and a road bout against another playoff contender is a staggering difference, so the Chiefs should be looking to play out the season strong if they can.
  23. 3 points
    I wonder what happens if the Jags would’ve gone and got Cousins.
  24. 3 points
    Tulsi Gabbard came out and said that Trump is Saudi Arabia’s bitch. Lmao. She isn’t wrong. #ThatsMyPresident
  25. 3 points
    Least Valuable Player: Le'Veon Bell
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