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Showing content with the highest reputation since 09/17/2018 in all areas

  1. 11 points
    Proposed to girlfriend last night. She said yes.
  2. 7 points
  3. 6 points
    Hey everyone, it's been a long time coming, but I'm finally ready to put up the results of what I've been working on over the season. I wanted to find a way to adjust a QB's play for what his defense does, and see how often a guy can overcome a bad performance from his defense, or likewise, fail to win even when the defense has a stellar game. In order to do that I needed a whole lot of data. Every single game a QB started or played most of the game (including postseason), the average amount of points a defense allowed in each year, and how often a QB won in those situations. So doing a lot of number crunching, and by examining the years in the Super Bowl Era, I came up with a list of 102 QB's, sorted by 4 separate eras marked by important rule changes or historical reasons. To qualify for this list, a QB must have had 90 starts (including postseason), or 80 starts in the dead ball era (14 game seasons meant I needed a little leeway). Starts in this case are games where the QB played most of or all of the game. (Tom Brady doesn't get credit for starting the game where Bernard Pollard broke his leg, for example). By having the data for all of the eras, you can find the expected win percentage of a QB in games where their defense played well, and the expected win percentage when their defense played poorly. This list is sorted by the player with the most wins above replacement in a 16 game season, to the player with the least. With all of that in mind, let's go ahead and start this list. Current List: Tier 7: Garbage (2 or more wins below the average starter a season) 102. Archie Manning (New Orleans Saints) (-2.886) Tier 6: Career Backup (1-2 wins below the average starter a season) 101. Chris Miller (Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams) (-1.335) 100. Jeff George (Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders) (-1.162) 99. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets, Bucs) (-1.123) 98. Steve DeBerg (San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Bucs and Kansas City Chiefs) (-1.055) 97. Norm Snead (Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants) (-1.028) Tier 5: Journeyman (0.5-1 wins below the average starter a season) 96. Jon Kitna (Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions) (-0.865) 95. Ron Jaworski (Philadelphia Eagles) (-0.841) 94. Vinny Testaverde (Tampa Bay Bucs, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets) (-0.807) 93. Jim Harbaugh (Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, and San Diego Chargers) (-0.790) 92. Ken O'Brien (New York Jets) (-0.743) 91. Kerry Collins (Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans) (-0.713) 90. Jim Everett (Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints) (-0.602) 89. Greg Landry (Detroit Lions) (-0.586) 88. Lynn Dickey (Green Bay Packers) (-0.533) 87. Steve Beuerlein (Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers) (-0.530) 86. Joe Ferguson (Buffalo Bills) (-0.507) Tier 4: Average (0.5 wins above to 0.5 wins below the average starter a season) 85. Aaron Brooks (New Orleans Saints) (-0.414) 84. Steve Bartkowski (Atlanta Falcons) (-0.413) 83. Daunte Culpepper (Minnesota Vikings) (-0.282) 82. Doug Williams (Washington Redskins) (-0.270) 81. Trent Dilfer (Tampa Bay Bucs and Baltimore Ravens) (-0.261) 80. Drew Bledsoe (New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys) (-0.253) 79. Richard Todd (New York Jets) (-0.249) 78. Jim Zorn (Seattle Seahawks) (-0.211) 77. Chris Chandler (Arizona Cardinals, Houston Oilers and Atlanta Falcons) (-0.117) 76. Jeff Blake (Cincinnati Bengals) (-0.110) 75. Jake Plummer (Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos) (-0.025) 74. Bernie Kosar (Cleveland Browns) (0.000) 73. Dan Pastorini (Houston Oilers) (0.051) 72. Jeff Garcia (San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.075) 71. Warren Moon (Houston Oilers, Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.081) 70. Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.091) 69. Brian Sipe (Cleveland Browns) (0.115) 68. Ken Anderson (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.147) 67. Jay Cutler (Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears) (0.165) 66. Bert Jones (Baltimore Colts) (0.218) 65. John Hadl (San Diego Chargers, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers) (0.238) 64. Boomer Esiason (Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets) (0.260) 63. Jim Plunkett (New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers and Oakland/L.A. Raiders) (0.286) 62. Jim Hart (St. Louis Cardinals) (0.294) 61. Craig Morton (Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Denver Broncos) (0.342) 60. Mark Brunell (Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins) (0.350) 59. Neil O'Donnell (Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets) (0.362) 58. Gus Frerotte (Washington Redskins, Lions, Broncos, Bengals, Vikings, Dolphins, Rams) (0.367) 57. Neil Lomax (St. Louis/Arizona Cardinals) (0.368) 56. Tommy Kramer (Minnesota Vikings) (0.375) 55. Dave Krieg (Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.379) 54. Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions) (0.412) 53. Marc Bulger (St. Louis Rams) (0.475) 52. Billy Kilmer (San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints and Washington Redskins) (0.476) 51. Jake Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) (0.483) Tier 3: Good (0.5-1 wins above the average starter a season) 50. Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals, Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals) (0.568) 49. Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) (0.591) 48. Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) (0.591) (1.266 without adjustment) 47. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.608) 46. Bobby Hebert (New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons) (0.610) 45. Philip Rivers (San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers) (0.614) 44. Phil Simms (New York Giants) (0.639) 43. Roman Gabriel (Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.653) 42. Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans) (0.719) 41. Brad Johnson (Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.722) 40. Dan Fouts (San Diego Chargers) (0.738) 39. Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys) (0.748) 38. Trent Green (Kansas City Chiefs) (0.821) 37. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) (0.840) 36. Jim McMahon (Chicago Bears) (0.875) (1.705 without adjustment) 35. Eli Manning (New York Giants) (0.884) 34. Michael Vick (Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.890) 33. Steve Grogan (New England Patriots) (0.989) Tier 2: Franchise QB (1-2 wins above the average starter a season) 32. Joe Namath (New York Jets) (1.002) 30t. Jay Schroeder (Washington Redskins and Los Angeles Raiders) (1.056) 30t. Joe Theismann (Washington Redskins) (1.056) 29. Steve McNair (Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans) (1.064) 28. Bob Griese (Miami Dolphins) (1.069) 27. John Brodie (San Francisco 49ers) (1.071) 26. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) (1.086) 25. Fran Tarkenton (Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants) (1.157) 24. Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.186) 23. Sonny Jurgensen (Washington Redskins) (1.219) 22. Rich Gannon (Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders) (1.234) 21. Dan Marino (Miami Dolphins) (1.407) 20. Len Dawson (Kansas City Chiefs) (1.451) 19. Randall Cunningham (Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings) (1.457) 18. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) (1.464) 17. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) (1.511) 16. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) (1.523) 15. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.539) 14. Drew Brees (San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints) (1.777) 13. Brett Favre (Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings) (1.795) 12. Jim Kelly (Buffalo Bills) (1.841) 11. Kurt Warner (St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals) (1.873) 10. John Elway (Denver Broncos) (1.957) Tier 1: Legend (2 or more wins above the average starter a season) 9. Ken Stabler (Oakland Raiders, Houston Oilers and New Orleans Saints) (2.174) 8. Steve Young (Tampa Bay Bucs and San Francisco 49ers) (2.198) 7. Roger Staubach (Dallas Cowboys) (2.224) 6. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) (2.248) 5. Danny White (Dallas Cowboys) (2.284) 4. Joe Montana (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (2.441) 3. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos) (3.065) 2. Daryle Lamonica (Oakland Raiders) (3.365) 1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) (3.532)
  4. 6 points
  5. 6 points
    Hello (again) all...was going through a bunch of old forum profiles, found this one and felt a bit of nostalgia for the good old days. It's been a HOT minute since I was last here. Not sure how "back" I am, but I hope to hang around and get into some of the discussions when I can. I miss having a group I can talk sports with. -P4L
  6. 6 points
    Hello everyone, it's been a while since I did this. I figured I had a good thing going when I did the data for 2004-2017, and I wanted to do something for other eras as well. So I'm looking back at the timespan from 1990-2003 to figure out the answers to some important questions. How did the long term starters of the era fare when their defense was above par, and when their defense was below par. I used the same methodology as the last time I did this, finding the point where the average defense lies in my selected time span. From 1990-2003, the average defense gave up about 20.3 points, about 2 points lower than modern defenses do today, so I set the breaking point at 21 points. If your defense allowed less points than that, they had a good game, if they allowed more, they had a bad game. The null hypothesis is that the average QB will win every game his defense allows less than the average amount of points, and will lose every game the defense allows greater than the average amount of points. Obviously, the data shows that this isn't true due to games where both teams score 20 or less points, and games where both teams score 21 or more points. The real percentages over this time span show that the average QB can be expected to win 74.23% of the time his defense holds up, and a mere 22.86% of the time his defense crumbles. With those numbers gathered, I looked for every QB who had at least 90 starts and put them onto the list for analysis. I added one exception who was fairly close to the amount of starts simply because he was one of the most impactful QB's of the era, and it felt wrong to leave him off the list. The reason for 90 was just because I wanted a round number, and 96 would be 6 full seasons of games, so going a little under due to injuries and such felt better than going a little over. I managed to get a list of 25 guys. Some played their entire career in the time span, some only had the tail end of their careers in there, and a few guys were just starting up. Neither Tom Brady nor Joe Montana made the list due to lack of starts in the era. I curated some games, removing starts where players only played a few snaps before getting hurt, or adding starts where they came in relief, because the place I get my data from just counts starts as the QB who plays the first snap. Anyway, let's get right into the data. First let's look at the winningest QB's of the era: https://i.imgur.com/tP5DoKU.png As you can see, there's a lot of names you'd expect at the top, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, John Elway and Brett Favre. Meanwhile the bottom is about what you'd expect as well, with Jim Everett, Jeff George, Jeff Blake and the like at the bottom. It's a good indicator, but it doesn't tell us how their defenses held up, and it's really just a blase look at things, so let's keep exploring, and see which of these guys had the best defenses. Sorted by Good Defense percentage: https://i.imgur.com/9PGxixv.png So this was something I found interesting. I was not expecting Troy Aikman to have the best defenses of the bunch, but as it turns out he just narrowly edged out Steve Young, who I was expecting to be really high up there in that regard. Despite only playing 12 games for the Ravens, Trent Dilfer has the third best defenses of the bunch, bolstered by his time in Tampa with Tony Dungy and their Tampa 2 defenses. On the other end, you've got the guys whose defenses gave up a lot of points. Jake Plummer, Jeff George, Jim Everett, and Peyton Manning who unlike those other guys managed to pull out a winning record despite his porous defenses. Jeff Blake sitting at the bottom makes a ton of sense when you realize he played for the Bengals, Saints and Cardinals, all before they got good (if they ever did). Continuing on, let's sort these guys by how they performed when the chips were down, and their defenses gave up 21+ points a game. Remember that the average win percentage in these games is a hair below 23%, so if the percentages look low, that's why. Anything above 23% is basically a passing grade in this curve. https://i.imgur.com/Shltje6.png This would be about what you'd expect. Guys like Young, Kelly and Elway cut their teeth on winning in tough situations, winning over 40% of the time. Add in Favre, Cunningham, Rich Gannon, and Steve McNair who all won over a third of the time and you have a very impressive group overall. Peyton is right behind them as well, but he boasts a 50% rate post 2004 which is insanity only matched or surpassed by one Thomas Brady. Meanwhile the bottom of the list is anchored by everyone's favourite bust, Jeff George. And lastly, what you've all been waiting for, the metric that sorts all of these numbers out nice and evenly, my derived Wins over Average stat. https://i.imgur.com/bVWC8Ae.png This was probably the biggest surprise of all for me. I was expecting this to be Steve Young when I first started this, with about a 20% it'd be Favre somehow. However Jim Kelly is the man up top, averaging an entire 2.82 wins more than the average QB would in his situation. If you want to know why the Bills went to 4 super bowls in the 90's, you don't need to look much farther than Kelly. Though he doesn't get the accolades that Marino and Elway did, there is no question that he's the superior member in the 90's. Steve Young finished a little bit behind with 2.7, Brett Favre had a very strong 2.34, and even outside of his prime years, Peyton still managed to be 2.07 wins over average. Troy Aikman may not be thought of as a good QB, since he was carried by some great teams, but he still managed to be a win above average, which places him with contemporaries like Joe Flacco and Matt Schaub. Dan Marino didn't do too hot, but considering he lost both of his pro bowl receivers in 92, it doesn't really surprise me that he's not dominating this section of the list. His prime was definitely in the 80's. Moving down the list, Trent Dilfer managed to be a shade above average, netting about .17 more wins a season than the average QB would. It's nothing impressive, and his closest contemporary in the modern era would be Alex Smith, another QB who did alright with great defenses, but Smith never lucked into a ring. Jeff Blake is our closest to average QB, netting a mere 0.01 more losses a season than the typical QB, which is virtually 0 at that point. So if you want to say you're a decent starter in this league you need to be better than Jeff Blake. Let's look at guys who are worst than Jeff Blake. Drew Bledsoe, who does pretty well in high scoring games, but vanishes in a lot of defensive struggles. Vinny Testaverde and Chris Chandler, career journeymen with long careers and stormy injury history. Jake Plummer and Kerry Collins, about half a game worse per season than average starters, started early on bad teams and have their best years cut off by the range of this sample size. Then you have the trash. Something interesting about this data set is that there are a lot of QB's with enough starts to qualify who fall well below average. In the modern era list, the only guy below average was Ryan Fitzpatrick, who journeymaned his way to starts on lots of teams. The guys here did it much the same way he did, 90's QBs had a lot looser leash it seems. Jim Harbaugh flamed out with a good Bears defense, and depsite having some of the best defenses out of all the guys on the list, he couldn't manage a .500 record. Boomer was old and miserable, and got his prime years in the 80's cut off by the sample size. His performance when his defense showed up was pathetic, even when he managed to be average when his defense didn't. Jeff George was a colossal bust and his numbers are even buoyed because he got to throw to Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, and Randy Moss in his career. Lastly the worst of the worst was Jim Everett, a guy who could barely win a third of his games. His 21-18 mark when his defense actually showed up is by far the worst I've seen thus far. He may have been on some bad teams, but that is beyond pathetic. The -1.38 WAR is also the worst mark I've seen thus far, below Ryan Fitzpatrick. --- Anyway, this was a lot of fun to make up, and I may do some more in the future, especially since certain QB's aren't represented well, or got their primes cut off by the era. The next data set would be 1978-1989, the start of the 16 game era, as well as the introduction of the Mel Blount rule. If you have any questions, want any trivia or whatever, feel free to let me know. And here is the link to my data sheet. Thanks for reading guys. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nAyFHNzY2KESR7XK3w2IipuFW2Zc3FJKXkc7rodbIVs/edit?usp=sharing
  7. 5 points
    So we have our TGP offseason highlight. Razor, I look forward to logging in every day to see this.
  8. 5 points
    " Baby, I've looked at the tape and I've come to the conclusion that you have perennial wife talent. The tape doesn't lie. Will you marry me? "
  9. 5 points
    The hospital literally makes up costs that they then say they are charging, all so they can "cut their prices" for the insurance. When you have people who literally have to wear wristbands that say "do not call an ambulance if I have a seizure" you know how badly this country is fucked. And its annoying as hell, because somehow people blame us at the pharmacy. Your local pharmacy is not the one who sets the prices, its the insurance. I am right there with you being outraged by these prices. And by completely underhanded tactics. Here's you another example. Patient who needed an inhaler, was literally having trouble breathing right in front of me. The insurance would only cover it if it was a 30-day supply. This inhaler only came in 25 days supply, that's just how it comes. I called them on the phone to discuss the situation and try to get him something else. We wanted to swap him to a different one that does the same thing but is a 30 day supply. Not covered. Tried a different one. Not covered. At this point the pharmacist is as angry as I've ever seen him and asks what the hell they want us to do. Keep in mind each time this happened, we had hung up on them being assured it would go through if it was a 30 day supply, and then had to re-dial them after we had gotten the product out and then discovered its still not covered. They wanted us to special order yet another inhaler which is actually way more expensive BUT they have a better contract with its makers so they can cover it (that was our guess as that is the case a lot of times, they didn't exactly specify that). Since it was only made in three locations in the US, it would take at least three days to get here. Meanwhile the gentleman is still struggling to breathe. Pharmacist told them to go to hell and re-sent the claim through for the original one and manually changed the day supply on the inhaler to a 30 day one and then overrode the computer just so it would go through their systems. He got in a lot of trouble for it a couple weeks later, with a rep from the insurance company coming in to whine about it. Just another example of how fucked the insurance is in this country. OR Formulary lists. All insurance companies have a list of drugs they cover called their formulary. The insurance new year starts on July 1, so a lot of times come July 2, a lot of patients suddenly have drugs they have been getting regularly that are no longer covered. Does the insurance even bother to notify them? Of course not.
  10. 5 points
    There is no good advice in my opinion. Losing anything that meaningful is going to hurt no matter what. One thing I will say is you never regret the moments you spend with something you love. As much time as you can devote to her, do it, it will not be a regret. It may also help to be positively patient with yourself. Realize that it is going to suck and you are going to be hurt, and there is no time table for it. It will take as long as it takes for the grieving process, and there really is no arbitrary measurement for how long it takes to get over it. She truly will be in a better place. Whether that be heaven or not suffering, she will experience peace. She won't be in agony every day. I think we all have a point where suffering is no longer preferable even for those we love. The last thing is remember you were the center of her world. She loved you immensley and love will always stay with you. And do not second guess forgoing chemo. It is not a bad decision. She is going to need you and I have always found that we can learn lessons from death about a life well lived. She will pass with people around who lover and love in her heart. That is something to be revered.
  11. 5 points
    Lol. I have went to bat for you time and time again, asked people personally both in private and in threads not to be dicks to you. Said you were a good dude numerous times in the shout box that can be backed up by most regular members. You are such a pussy. Peace.
  12. 5 points
    All I've read about this is from people on both sides of the aisle virtue signaling on Quora. I find it remarkable that everyone on both sides (at least on Quora, I haven't kept up with it much in this thread) is absolutely convinced that they are 100% right and justified in their stance, and that both sides passionately play the role of victim. This is more like a soap opera than anything else. I have a hard time believing a woman would put herself on a platform like this with a false allegation but people on the left that I've read are so black and white about this issue. I still struggle to believe that people think calling those who disagree with them (or in this case say "innocent until proven guilty") bigots is productive at all. Edit: Like I said I don't pretend false accusations are common but I think this shit about women never lying about sexual assault is dumb. Statistically it's rare but when dealing with individual cases, to just throw our that possibility is absurd. I don't think we should inherently believe women but I also think sexual assault is serious enough to the point that these accusations should be heard and explored. I've seen people say there's no reason a woman would do that, that's idiotic. It's not a smart move but there are plenty of reasons. I suspect that Kavanaugh did it because he seems like a piece of shit and like I said I don't see this as a case where she'd put herself through this kind of shit storm for the sake of the Democratic party. I don't think there's very much evidence. If what I've read is true at all it's basically conservatives saying there's no evidence and thus the accusations can't be proven true, and liberals going with "gut instincts" (like in all honesty I am) in their "assessment" and saying he's a predator. Lmao, I saw some dude say his body language and facial expressions were what you'd expect of a sociopath, so clearly he did it. People like that are beyond idiotic and a prime example of the aforementioned virtue signaling I bitch about so frequently. I also think people are a lot more complex than specific moments in their life. This isn't me defending Kavanaugh, because I think I already said he seems like he's a piece of shit in real life, but more so that there's also an entire lifetime of experiences that form his identity. This is true of literally every human yet we live in a disgusting society where a metaphorical soundbyte of a person's life determines their character. If people judged me from how I was when I was abusing weed and psychotic as well (and they ACTUALLY knew who I was) they'd think I was a piece of shit yet everything else in my life reinforces I'm a morally ambiguous person that tends towards being decent. What really gets me is that I don't even think these people care. I don't think they care about Ford or Kavanaugh, or what this means for the country, I think they only see people they disagree with getting fired up and have to provide an equal and opposite force. I don't think people actually care about the MeToo movement which is unfortunate, I know some people who felt empowered by it to seek therapy to overcome that past. Seems more and more like people retweet and favorite and upvote stuff like that just so they come off as a good person on social media. It seems so fake to me. Rant over.
  13. 4 points
    Let's all take a moment and appreciate how old we all are now that cherry's out here getting married.
  14. 4 points
    Oh, so this is your fault.
  15. 4 points
    I think another thing that hasn't been mentioned but should be a gimmie here for everyone is that this guy is looking at a lifetime appointment. He should be vetted with finest of toothed Combs. Isn't that commons sense. If it's not true what's to fear from an investigation?
  16. 3 points
  17. 3 points
    With the 37th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the New York Giants select... Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson With the 38th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select... Drew Lock, QB, Missouri With the 39th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select... Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss
  18. 3 points
    So I don't want to be that guy, but someone has to. I've noticed it has happened already that people who are on the clock are online and either not checking, or not realizing their pick is up and end up logging off. Since we couldn't finish the mock last year, I'm proposing something that could remedy this and want to know what y'all think... 1. After you make your pick, put "username" is now on the clock under your post. 2. If user is online post it in the chat and try to confirm that they see it. 3. If not online, send a PM to them. Is this overkill? I don't know, but I also feel like we've already wasted time in the first round and you guys know it only gets worse the later we get into it... Edit: Also if you're online, always AT LEAST ONCE check the draft thread if you're participating in it.
  19. 3 points
    Am I the only one who would get a kick out of Pitt holding onto him and just benching him on principle? Icing on the cake if they win without him. Does that make me a bad person?
  20. 3 points
    With the 1st overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals select... Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama The San Francisco 49ers are on the clock. (Sean)
  21. 3 points
    Competing teams: 1. Kansas City 11-3 2. Houston 10-4 3. New England 9-5 4. Pittsburgh 8-5-1 5. Los Angeles Chargers 11-3 6. Baltimore 8-6 --- 7. Indianapolis 8-6 8. Tennessee 8-6 9. Miami 7-7 10. Cleveland 6-7-1 10. Cleveland Browns Potential Seeds: 6 Cleveland is on the fringest of fringe scenarios to make it in, and really shouldn’t be considered in the hunt. However, there is a single set of events that allows them in, and it takes a tie to get that far. The easy part is winning the games on their schedule… from there, it’s up to the hands of fate. Week 16 Washington beats Tennessee New York Giants beats Indianapolis Los Angeles Chargers beats Baltimore Cleveland beats Cincinnati Week 17 Indianapolis and Tennessee tie Cleveland beats Baltimore Miami either loses in week 16 to the Jaguars, or week 17 to the Bills. So you can’t exactly consider their odds realistic, but stranger things have happened in the NFL. Browns should take pride in this season regardless, and finishing 8-7-1 would be a great boon for the future next year. 9. Miami Dolphins Potential Seeds 3, 4, 6 Despite being 7-7 right now, due to the way the seeds are shaping up, they could potentially go as high as the 3 seed, but that would require some unlikely results. The Dolphins can win the AFC East if they win out against the Jaguars and Bills (which is possible), and have the Patriots lose out against the Bills and Jets (which is impossible). But assuming the impossible does happen, Miami would have a tiebreaker on Baltimore if they finished with the same record and won their divisions, and if Pittsburgh won the division at 8-7-1, they’d be a half game behind the Fish. A loss will eliminate them entirely, but they can still make a wild-card if they win out and the Patriots win a game. If they tie with the Titans at 9-7, with the Titans beating the Colts in Week 17, they have H2H on them. If they tie with the Colts at 9-7 with the Colts beating the Titans in week 17, they lose the spot since the Colts have H2H on them. With all that said, if the Colts and Titans both win in week 16, it doesn’t matter what the Dolphins do, they can’t secure the wild card. 8. Tennessee Titans Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 The Titans are a very interesting team. While they do not control their own destiny, if things fall a certain way, they could still be looking at a first round bye this year. Granted that would take a lot of finagling, but assuming they win out, all they need is a Baltimore loss at some point, thanks a crucial week 17 matchup between them and the Colts. Winning out, having the AFC North champion finish with less that 10 wins, having the Texans lose out and the Patriots losing a game would put them in the second seed thanks to H2H with the Patriots. A loss in week 17 would put them out of the race entirely, however with a lot of help they could still sneak into the 6th seed with a Win against Indy and a lot of help in the other games. It’ll be interesting to see what happens down the stretch, they could be a real spanner in the works. 7. Indianapolis Colts Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 The Colts face a similar challenge that the Titans do. They lose the tiebreaker to the Ravens, so they don’t control their destiny unless the Birds drop a game, but they could still sneak into the division title by winning out and having the Texans losing out. Like the Titans, the week 17 game is a must win game for them, they cannot make the playoffs if they lose that one, but they could still sneak into the 6 seed if they lost week 16 to the Giants. Unlike the Titans however, they would need the Patriots to lose both of their games if they wanted to sneak into the 2nd seed, in addition to having the Texans lose out and neither the Steelers or Ravens hitting 10 wins. That’s is a lot to ask for, but the wild-card odds are reasonable at the least. 6. Baltimore Ravens Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 Win out, and you’re in. For the Ravens, it’s almost just that simple. They need to beat some tough teams, but beating the Chargers and Browns will guarantee the 6th seed at the very worst. If Pittsburgh drops a game, they win the North and get at least the 4th. If Houston manages not to win the AFC South, they have the tiebreaker on the Colts and Titans, and could jump up to 3rd, and if the Patriots lost a game down the stretch as well, they could end up the second seed. Once again, it is a lot to expect, but it isn’t outside the realm of possibility. The Ravens can still make the 6th even if they lose a game, all they need is the Dolphins to avoid winning both of their games, or the Titans and Colts winning both of their games. They could even win their division if they lost a single game, provided the Steelers lost out. Well the situation is actually pretty complex if the Patriots, Dolphins, Ravens, Colts and Titans all finish 9-7, because in that case Miami has the division tiebreaker on New England, and takes the 4, while Baltimore takes the tiebreakers over the rest of the pack and steals the 6 seed. If Baltimore were to lose both games, they would not make the playoffs because either the Colts or Titans will get ahead of them by virtue of their week 17 game, even in event of a tie, both of those teams would finish with a better record than 8-8. I mentioned that there was a scenario where the Ravens won out and wouldn’t make the playoffs, so I figure I might as well elaborate on what exactly needs to happen to cause that. If either the Colts or Titans win out, the Steelers win out, and the Texans lose out then you get a situation where Houston and Baltimore are tied for the 6th seed at 10-6, and Houston has the tiebreaker in common games over them. But that’s the most unlikely scenario out there. 5. X- Los Angeles Chargers Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 5 The Chargers did a great job winning against the Chiefs, but still cannot claim the division without some help from the Chiefs. If the Chiefs win out, the Chargers are locked in at the 5 seed, they can’t go below that even if they lost out. However if the Chiefs lose a game, then the Chargers have some flexibility to move around, and having a better record than them will guarantee a first round bye. They could tie the Texans at 12-4, and depending on which game they lose, they would either become the second seed due to common games (Losing to Denver), or the tiebreaker would come down to Strength of Victory (Losing to Baltimore) which would be way too complicated for me to deal with. Winning out and having the Chiefs lose at least once would guarantee the Chargers the first seed. Their scenarios are pretty simple, all things considered. 4. Pittsburgh Steelers Potential Seeds: 2, 3, 4, 6 The Steelers are still on the knife’s edge, even after beating the Patriots. Only being a half game up on the Ravens means they could lose the division at any moment, and coming up against the Saints next week shouldn’t engender confidence. Still, winning out, having the Pats lose a game, and having the Texans lose out would get them up to the 2 seed. Losing a game isn’t a death sentence, but they would need help to guarantee a playoff spot if that were to happen, since the Ravens could take their division spot by winning out and the Colts or Titans would probably end up with a 10-6 record to remove them from the postseason chase. Losing both games would eliminate the Steelers unless the Ravens managed to lose out as well, so their fates are inexorably linked. 3. New England Patriots Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 The Patriots aren’t quite in the position we’d thought they’d be, but their situation is still very favourable. A Dolphins loss at any point guarantees the East division, and if they manage to beat the Jets or Bills, they’ll have the division. With a tiebreaker on the Texans, and a half game on the Steelers they have good tiebreakers on the teams currently in the lead, but they have a head to head loss to the Titans, and poor tiebreakers against the Ravens, so if they didn’t win out you could still see a lot of nonsense happening. But this is the Pats against the AFC East, these wins are virtually guaranteed, and at 11-5, a single Texans loss would jump them up to the second seed, and if both the Chargers and Chiefs decided losing out was in their fashion, the Patriots could be the top dog by seasons end. Therefore, that’s the most likely scenario because we’re cursed to eternal Patriots hell. 2. X- Houston Texans Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 The Texans have a lot of flexibility, but their playoff situation is very simple. Win and they are in. Win twice and they guarantee a home game at 12-4 and at least the second seed. Houston’s tiebreakers with the Chargers and Chiefs are still dependent on which games they’d lose if they both went 12-4, so it’s hard to say if they’d guarantee the 1 seed for themselves with a single Chiefs and Chargers loss. Of course, losing out means that they are at the mercy of the Colts and Titans, who would both overtake them with a tied 10-6 record. However, they’d still get a wild-card spot from all the scenarios I’ve run. No one has a confirmation that the Texans have clinched a spot, but I’m not seeing a scenario where they end up at worst the 6th seed, thanks to a tiebreaker on the Ravens, by virtue of the fact that the Colts and Titans cannot both be 10-6 to kick them out, and there can be no other 10-6 or better wild-card team. Perhaps my playoff machine is busted, but it looks as though the Texans are at least locked in for the 6th seed at worst. 1. X- Kansas City Chiefs Potential Seeds: 1, 2, 3, 5 Chiefs control their own destiny at this point, win out and get home field advantage, no questions asked. Put a loss on the docket, then things get stupid. With a H2H loss to the Patriots, losing out with the Chargers losing out could drop them down to third seed, since they’d still win the division over the Chargers in that circumstance. A loss to the Raiders on week 17 would probably lose them the division since the Chargers would steal the division title from them with any win. A win and a Chargers and Texans loss would wrap up home field advantage by week 16, but they have a tough bout against the Seahawks this week. The difference between a home game and a bye and a road bout against another playoff contender is a staggering difference, so the Chiefs should be looking to play out the season strong if they can.
  22. 3 points
    I wonder what happens if the Jags would’ve gone and got Cousins.
  23. 3 points
    Tulsi Gabbard came out and said that Trump is Saudi Arabia’s bitch. Lmao. She isn’t wrong. #ThatsMyPresident
  24. 3 points
    Least Valuable Player: Le'Veon Bell
  25. 3 points
    Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick. What you can't give Belichick the coach of the year, he's always the best coach in the NFL, that's not fair to the other guys. Ok, let's switch things up a bit. The Coach of the Year*: Adam Gase Wow, how fucking dare I, right? Well let's face it, the Dolphins are not a talented team, and they were lauded for dumping talented players like Ndamukong Suh, Jay Ajayi and JArvis Landry for practically nothing. Is this team good? I don't think so, but this team should be Raiders or 49ers level bad this season, yet they are finding gritty ways to win games, getting the most out of ICU patient Ryan Tannehill and the meme of the century Brock Osweiler, and winning games that they probably shouldn't be. These players are buying into what Gase is giving them, and while they're a ways out of beating talented squads, they are handling themselves well. It's actually just Belichick though. Offensive Rookie of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, The lone bright spot on that offense, now that Eli has reverted into a captain checkdown. He's dynamic, exciting, and good to bust a big play almost every week. If he had more than one capable blocker he might be putting up Gurley type numbers if not better. Defensive Rookie of the Year: Nathan Peterman... wait shit. uh, Let's give the Browns some love, Denzel Ward, CB, There are so many good rookies that you could make a team out of them this year. Fred Warner, Darius Leonard, Derwin James, Donte Jackson, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Leighton Vander Esch, among others all have legitimate arguments for this spot, but I have to go with Ward. He's all over the place on defense, a very solid tackler, and the primary reason they won any games at all this season. The Browns might suck, but he doesn't. Comeback Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, DE, 9 sacks halfway through the season... yeah dude is back. He finally looks healthy, he's shedding offensive linemen like nothing and... Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, DE, Yeah make this a double. Watt is once again the best player on the defensive side of the ball, sorry. Offensive Player of the Year, aka the we can't give you the MVP, here have a participation trophy: Todd Gurley, RB, 1230 yards from scrimmage, 16 TDs halfway through the season, Gurley is a production machine, and the Rams are content to feed the machine. I'm looking forward to seeing him chase the non-passing TD record. The Saints did a great job stifling him though. Best Player: Drew Brees, QB, The league owes him after Peyton Manning stole his MVP award. He's also the best QB in football, which is what this award should actually be called. The Most Valuable Player to his team, but not necessarily the best player in the league, because we don't have a Most Oustanding Player award to split the difference award: Cam Newton, QB, Because fuck he deserves some credit for the work he's doing this year that gets consistently shat on and undone by his garbage coaches.