Bware's Conference Semifinals Writeup

[BwareDWare94 723]

Quick note: Because there are less series (obviously), I'm going to add a few new dynamics to the team evaluations. I'll list them with the holdovers from last round. Also, I meant to get this posted before the first game started but ended up at a benefit for a cancer patient until halftime of Grizz/Thunder.

MWT (Maximum Win Total)

X-Factor

Wild Card

Scheme Suggestions (Offense and Defense)

Prediction (after both team evals)

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Miami Heat (1) vs. Chicago Bulls (4)

Heat

The Heat come into this series as the clear favorites to take the title home. They're currently on a roll after demolishing the laughable Bucks.

MWT: 4

X-Factor: LeBron. Can he continue to play at such a high level? I wouldn't bet against him.

Wild Card: Mario Chalmers. I feel like we know that Wade and Bosh are going to be solid, if not great in every game, but Chalmers is known for big shots and big time performances. Can he bring it against Kirk and Nate and maybe even Rose?

 

Scheme Suggestions: Offense--Do what you do, Miami. Nobody has been able to stifle it since the Mavericks of 2011. Defense--matchup LeBron based on who's in the game. When Nate checks in, switch LBJ onto the little bastard so he doesn't go off. Otherwise, Bosh and Haslem need to take care of Boozer and Noah or the Bulls could dominate the boards.

 

Bulls

The Bulls come into this series after knocking out a team that had better pieces but a much worse head coach. Then again, the Bulls are almost always going to have a much better head coach and that's no different in this series. Can Thibs carry this team to the point that they actually challenge Miami? Will Derrick Rose suit up, as he should have about two months ago?

MWT: 3 (That's high, I know, but I don't like the way Miami's bigs match up with Boozer and Noah)

X-Factor: Noah. He is the motor of this team.

Wild Card: The likely candidate: Boozer. Be big or watch your team get sent home. On the other hand Derrick Rose could return.

 

Scheme Suggestions: Offense--Move the ball. The only way to beat Miami consistently is with a full team effort. You cannot play isoball, and fortunately for Chicago, they have nobody who can consistently be effective in isolation. Because of that, they need to move the ball. Defense--Blanket Wade and Bosh, and don't let Chalmers, Battier, or Jones spot up for wide open threes. LeBron is going to do what he's going to do. Scheming to defend him effectively is going to be ineffective 99% of the time. Put a solid defender on him but leave your best defenders for everybody else. Try to limit Wade and Bosh, and take care of everybody else. Box the Birdman out or get him in foul trouble.

 

Prediction: 4-2, Miami, and I'm hesitant to give Chicago a second win. They're too depleted and Miami will take care of them in 6.

 

New York Knicks (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (3)

Knicks

The Knicks come into this series after having troubles with a less than impressive Boston team depleted by injuries. Boston's difference makers are shells of their former selves and Paul Pierce should, quite frankly, retire. If New York sees itself as a true contender, it should have swept Boston. They had no legitimate threats who were going to be there games 1-7.

MWT: 4.

X-Factor: Carmelo. He's a volume scorer, and he'll show up on the offensive end. Will he anywhere else, though?

Wild Card: Amar'e Stoudemire. If he can return for this series at all, he could force David West to exert himself even more on the defensive end.

 

Scheme Suggestions: Offense--Indiana is a tremendous defensive team. Drop the isoball and try to move their defense around with fluid passing and spot up shooters. Carmelo isn't going to beat Indiana by himself. Defense--trail Paul George but if he starts off cold in any particular game, concentrate on other players. Do not let George Hill dictate too much. As one of the most underrated PGs in the league, Hill is a constant threat. Last but not least, keep bodies on Hibbert and West at all times. Try to wear them down. I don't suggest starting a boxing match with David West, though.

 

Pacers

The Pacers should have beaten the Hawks in 5, but Josh Smith decided to show up midway through and changed everything. After dropping 2 in Atlanta, the Pacers quickly took care of games 5 and 6 and discarded the Hawks.

MWT: 4

X-Factor: Roy Hibbert. Can he control the glass, as he should?

Wild Card: Paul George. Can he bring it for 5-7 games?

 

Scheme Suggestions: Offense--Move the ball around the perimeter and spot up when the ball's with Hibbert or West. Defense--Don't worry about stopping Carmelo; they aren't going to. Defend players like Felton and Shumpert, who could each go off on any given night. Put a solid defender on Melo but save your better defenders for the guys who can burn you if you don't pay enough attention to him.

 

Prediction: Pacers in 6. I think they take game 1 and set an early, nasty tone that the diva Knicks will be unable to handle, resulting in several game 1 technicals when the Knicks whine like LAC whines.

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

 

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5)

 

Thunder

The Thunder are missing the cog that makes them tick in Russell Westbrook. Though he might be a chucker on his bad nights, the people who thought the Thunder could be better without him were suffering from HSIA (Head Stuck in Ass) Syndrome.

MWT: 2

X-Factor: Durant

Wild Card: Perk. Can he neutralize either Gasol or ZBo in order to even the field?

 

Scheme Suggestions: Offense--Drop the LeBron ball and let Jackson run this offense. He's been fairly impressive so far and why not let KD work off the ball, initially, like he does with Russ? Defense--Rebound. Rebound. Rebound. If the Thunder want a chance in this series, Gasol and ZBo can't feast under the basket.

 

Grizzlies

The Grizzlies come in hot after demolishing the Clippers. Just a week and a half ago, nobody thought they'd win that series after dropping games 1 and 2. Then it was 4 straight, and four straight quite easily. Conley's balling. That means everything to this team.

MWT: 4

X-Factor: Conley

Wild Card: Tony Allen. Can he routinely defend either Durant or Martin effectively?

 

Scheme Suggestions: Offense--Post or spot up, whatever your skill set is. Memphis needs a full team effort on offense. Defense--Do what you do, Memphis.

 

Prediction: Grizzlies in 5. OKC is not good enough to compete in this series without Russ.

 

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

 

Spurs

The Spurs come in after, dare I say, the least impressive sweep I've ever seen. The Lakers were too close in several games, at times, but I will say that I chalk that up to Tony Parker not being fully healthy. If the time off has him back to 100%, The Warriors could be in trouble.

MWT: 4

X-Factor: Duncan. He has to be good (and boy, has he been) or the Spurs won't survive.

Wild Card: Ginobili. Assuming that Tony Parker isn't healthy, we need Manu to step up, even if he also isn't healthy. We also must mention the Spurs shooters. They need to bring their A game.

 

Scheme Suggestions: Offense--Move the ball and spot up. See what Duncan can do against a revitalized Andrew Bogut. Defense--They are not going to stop Steph Curry. They don't have a capable defender (unless Leonard can deny Curry's shot without getting into foul trouble), and I'm not sure anybody does. Steph Curry needs to be cold to be ineffective. Otherwise, don't let other shooters go off and try to neutralize Jarrett Jack. Deny the ball. Last but not least, rebound. Rebound. Rebound.

 

Warriors

Though they struggled to close out game 6, the Warriors looked very formidable in round one and I fully expect them to give the Spurs all they can handle.

MWT: 4

X-Factor: Curry

Wild Card: Bogut. Can he continue to roll?

 

Scheme Suggestions: Offense--Do what you do, Golden State, but don't forget to post up Carl Landry, even if Lee returns. This team is better when Landry produces off the bench, but they need to let him produce. Defense--Leave Bogut on Duncan unless Blair starts at center. If Blair starts, leave Bogut under the basket. If Bonner starts, leave Bogut on Duncan. Otherwise, challenge Spur shooters and rebound.

 

Prediction: Warriors in 7. I know a 5-6 WCF matchup is unlikely, but I love this Warriors team, and an underrated matchup in this series is Pop vs. Jackson. Mark Jackson is the Coach of the Year, as far as I'm concerned, and even if he is a little off in interviews at times, what he does in-game is phenomenal and you can tell his players like him.

 

Also, to be fair to Mark, at least he's not an ass to reporters like Pop is. I don't get it. Pop is just rude in those sideline interviews.

Edited May 5, 2013 by BwareDWare94