Pass Rushers

[KempBolt 498]

Regardless of the specific position, pass rushers are my favorite position to study. Most likely because I've been looking for the Chargers next great one ever since Merriman's knee ended his career early. And to be honest, I feel that it's the area of football that I'm most capable of "scouting" (if I can use that term as an amateur). After quarterback, these players are the most valuable on any given team and a great one can change your defense's fortunes entirely.

 

So here's a thread specifically for pass rushers not named Clowney. I thought it would be good to have a space for thoughts/breakdowns on specific rushers. I'm going to start with my personal favorite.

[KempBolt 498]

Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo:

 

Basics:

• University of Buffalo lists him at 6'3" 248 lbs.
• Redshirt Senior who will have 4 years experience by the time he's through.
• Reportedly ran a 4.65 at his current weight.

Notable Production:

 

2010-

• 2 TFL @Baylor
• 1.5 TFL, 1 Sack, 1 Hurry, and 2 PD V. #21 UCF

2011-

• .5 TFL @Tennessee

2012-

• 1.5 TFL @ #22 NIU

2013-

• 2.5 TFL, 2.5 Sacks, INT, TD @ #4 OSU

Career Totals-

• 63 TFL, 23 Sacks, 27 Hurries, 12 FF, INT, TD

Pros:

• Motor: Mack is a relentless football player. He simply doesn't give up on plays and it shows up in his ability to make tackles from the backside when the offense is purposefully running away from him. And while coverage sacks are the less impressive variety, it's a plus that he'll keep working to get free even if he's beaten on the snap. I should also mention alongside this trait, that's he's very physical-- rarely allows free releases for tight ends and hits with authority. Lastly, he goes after the ball until the whistle blows which has led to 12 career forced fumbles so far.
• Athleticism: He's a fluid athlete and it shows up in a number of ways. He is adept in coverage and moving away from the play. He also shows ability to bend and move laterally when rushing the passer or attempting to shed/evade run blocks. This is an underrated skill. It's essentially the difference between pass rushers who can counter athletic pass protectors, and those that constantly get washed behind the play.
• Technique: This is the area of his game where I've seen the most improvement. He uses active hands to rip, swim, or club his way past offensive linemen and create negative plays. He's also gotten significantly better at creating leverage and putting his man on skates with an effective bull rush. Hand in hand with that is the ability to disengage and make the play, whether than be on a runner or the quarterback.
• Instincts: Mack is a natural football player and that shows up all over the place. He sniffs out screens very well, he has a great feel for defending the option, he knows how to pass a man off out of his zone and pick up another, and he has the valuable skill of knowing when to cut off his rush and get his hands up to deflect the pass.

Cons:

• Level of Competition: This is the most obvious flaw in his makeup as a draft prospect. You'll notice in the production listed above that he's only had one big game against top competition (this year against OSU). It's a shame that he was suspended for last year's game against Georgia (got in a fight w/ a teammate). There aren't any more big opponents left on his schedule, so the Senior Bowl and other pre-draft work will be important for him.
• Burst?: I still have questions about Mack's first step quickness. I've seen flashes of what I would describe as adequate burst, but there aren't any good tapes out there of him facing traditional pro style offense. It's difficult to ascertain whether or not he can explode off the ball while watching him face offenses that use their QB often as a runner. Defensive coordinators typically ask their pass rushers to mush rush and keep the QB in the pocket when facing players like Braxton Miller. I think he has that ability, but if he doesn't then that could really sink his fortunes as a pass rusher. His 10 yd split will be telling.
• Positional Questions: Mack can clearly play 3-4 OLB (his current position) and looks capable of being a SAM or JACK in that scheme. And it's pretty evident that a 4-3 team could slot him at SAM in that scheme without a problem. The question becomes whether or not he has the ability to be a down lineman and rush the passer in the NFL. Because the vast majority of NFL 3-4 defenses still employ 4 man fronts about half the time. I think he can, but again this is an area where I would like to see more because I am not quite sold.

Bottom Line: Mack is one of my favorite prospects in this class because of the way he plays the game. He's violent, relentless, instinctual, and athletic. I hate watching athletes with no motor, or high motor players with no ability. I only have one major question left about his game, and that's first step quickness. As more tape becomes available, I am really hoping that it shows up because if it doesn't then I can't say he's a first rounder for me. But conversely, the ability to explode off the ball would cement his status as a top 20 prospect in my eyes.

 

Comparison- Whitney Mercilus, Texans: I am not overly fond of comparisons, but people seem to like them and this is the closest I can think of at the moment. Mack is more instinctual, versatile, and physical than Mercilus (a better prospect IMO), but they are similar in that they tend to win more with their 3rd and 4th steps than with their 1st.

 

Video:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmMZ6gJeoMI

 

[Attyla the Hawk 197]

Mack is a lesser version of Bruce Irvin. Irvin had ridiculous productivity despite playing in a goofy 3-3 hybrid defense and not being an every down player.

 

Physically, they are similar, except Irvin had a reportedly sub 4.4 time at 235. He bulked up to a 245 at the combine and still ran a 4.50 official time. We know how inflated reported/unofficial/pro day times can be. Mack looks like he'll struggle to get below 4.7 official. I don't see the same speed as Ogletree who clocked a 4.70 official.

 

Additionally, Irvin had a very good bull rush/power move to go with his electric speed. Mack doesn't show good power even against inferior competition. That will be a knock on him.

 

Irvin also was an elite finisher. He was and still is an exceptionally consistent tackler with amazing closing burst. In space, he has the instant acceleration, length and tackling ability to take away the edge and to limit yards after contact to virtually zero. Mack is a more fluid athlete in coverage, although currently I'd put Irvin's limited production in the NFL at the SAM backer to be as impressive as Mack's against college competition.

 

Mack is an interesting prospect. I like his consistency which separates him in my estimation from Ziggy Ansah of last year. He should get an invite to the senior bowl and that will be crucial for him, just as it was for Ansah and Fisher last season. I like the fact that against inferior competition (and against top notch competition when the schedule features that) he is consistently good. Right now, he'll go high, but I kind of see him similar to Sio Moore of last year's draft. Moore lit up the combine athletically and Mack is going to have to do the same. Moore was a consistent OLB who I really hoped Seattle would get but knew they wouldn't based on need and the knowledge that they were moving Irvin to the OLB position.

 

I believe Mack will be over drafted. He's not the same quality of prospect that Alex Ogletree was, and he has to really kill the combine to be equal to Moore. I see a 45-75 overall range pick when I see Mack. That's not bad. That's a day 1 starter in the NFL. I could see him going in the first round, as there is a general lack of pass rushing talent this year and it's a skill that is frequently drafted high. But more likely he ends up early in day 2. If he's an OLB, then he will be contending with Mosley, Barr and Van Noy. The first 2 I think go ahead of Mack. Generally, you don't see a lot of OLBs go in round 1. It will be hard to forecast him as a day one player as a result. Senior Bowl and Combine will have to work heavily in his favor. He doesn't have the speed in my estimation to push him round 1.

 

I'd bang the drum for Vic Beasley as a better mid/late first round pass rusher. He's lighter than Mack and will likely need to bulk up significantly or switch positions. He has outstanding quickness and burst and can leverage that into power cleanly in his pass rush.

[KempBolt 498]

Irvin's first step is lightning. That's not Mack's game from what I've seen. And Mack's strength has looked better this year than it did in 2012. He's developed a bull rush that has been working. And his functional speed is there, regardless of how he times. He can run a 4.7 as long as his 10 yd split is good.

 

I don't like the Ogletree comp. Apples and oranges in style and function. Ogletree is/was in the Daryl Washington mold. Sio Moore is a good comp though. Loved him coming out and thought the Raiders got a steal when they drafted him. Actually thought about using that as the NFL comparison, but I didn't want to compare him to a rookie who most people aren't going to be very familiar with.

 

I think the 45+ range is a fair assessment if his first step isn't very good. But that's what I'm still trying to ascertain and I don't think I'll be able to until the pre-draft stuff. But if it's there, then you're talking about a 1st round prospect all the way. His arms also appear long on tape, which will be important for him and helpful given the way he uses them. Given the type of athlete he appears to be in all other facets, I'd be surprised if he didn't have a good first step when allowed to rush pocket passers. It was pretty clear that most of the time he "rushed" Miller (outside of a handful of plays), his assignment was containment.

 

Barr is definitely head and shoulders above Mack. Mosley probably irrelevant as they'll appeal to different teams for different reasons. I prefer Mack to Van Noy, who looks like a 4-3 OLB only... never rushes as a down lineman that I've seen and isn't physical enough to be a regular rusher IMO (as opposed to a blitzer). Love Beasley. Interested in him, but haven't finished watching.

 

Right now, my rough rankings of pass rushers would look something like:

 

1. Clowney
2. Barr
3. Murphy
4. Beasley
5. Mack
6. Lynch
7. Jeffcoat

But with Mack having the potential to move up as I get to see more.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

This kid out of Baylor, Shawn Oakman is really intriguing. Don't be surprised when he's flying up the boards come draft prep time.

 

 

Powerful hands. Athletic, burst to shoot the gap and disrupt and penetrate. Huge frame, will only get stronger. Basketball background. Playing TE in HS.

 

^Knocks the LT on his ass

 

[Attyla the Hawk 197]

Great find. I just got through one of the Baylor games on my DVR this week and was MASSIVELY impressed. Couldn't stop focusing on him.

[KempBolt 498]

I was just reading about Oakman on another forum. Very impressive player.

 

I'm also glad to see that Jeffcoat is starting to heat back up as he gets further removed from injury. He's going to end up playing himself back into the top 40. And he could end up on the high end of that too.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Also since i touched on an underrated guy, and overrated guy right now to me is Michael Sam of Mizzou. He's put up huge sack numbers this year (might be mistaken but he might lead the nation.)

 

 

Lacks length, and when he does get separation he lacks enough burst (enough, he has some) and bend to close the deal against adequate tackle play. He ends up getting washed out because of this. A lot of sacks are result of bad tackle play (he goes against the RT — often the less talented of the tackles and is matched up with them exclusively), or being surrounded by a lot of talent on the line (I actually think he's the 2nd or even 3rd best DE on Mizzou, with Shane Ray being the best.)

 

He does however show some pass rush savvy as in going outside a lot to set up the OT then suddenly shooting inside and his best instances of pressure are when he does this because the length and bend are no longer needed going that route. But since I see him being pretty much useless going outside in the NFL this might not even matter against good tackles.

 

When I watch him I can't help but be reminded of Jarvis Jones. Another guy who put up huge sack numbers but I was very down on due to almost the same exact issues. I don't think however he'll be as hyped as Jones was in the draft simply because this is the first year he's really put up these types of eye popping stats so I'm sure scouts will be more weary about a possible one year wonder — as well as their eyes being captured by the guy opposite of him in Shane Ray. But just like casual fans thought Jarvis Jones was a top 5 talent, some will look at his numbers and catapult him where he shouldn't be.

[KempBolt 498]

This is what I wrote about Sam on another forum:

 

Michael Sam is a tough prospect for me to get a read on. I've only watched his Vanderbilt game so far, but in that contest he spent about 80% of the game anywhere from the 5 all the way inside to the 1. Early on, he was almost never even heads up on the tackle, let alone outside of him. The pressure he brought from the interior is nice and all, but probably not translatable. I want to see edge rush ability. He had 3 nice edge rushes late in that game once they finally started moving him outside. Not sold, but intrigued.

I'll call one thing right now: 50% of Chargers fans will write him off immediately because he's 6'2" 255 and wears #52. Too reminiscent of a current first round pass rusher bust.

 

He showed some different things in the Georgia game. Has a nice little hesitation move that he uses to work outside-in. That seems to work pretty well. But on the outside, he's a work in progress. And I can't really tell if he has the athleticism to get there. He needs to dip his shoulder more and present a smaller target to the offensive lineman-- get that body lean a little more pronounced. As it is, the arc he runs is too deep and the offensive linemen just pushes him wide around the pocket. In the NFL, against QB's who are adept at stepping up, that will get him nowhere.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Well damn, that's pretty much exactly what I saw too. Good eyes, sir.