RazorStar

73. Dan Pastorini (Houston Oilers 1971-1979, Oakland Raiders 1980, Los Angeles Rams 1981, Philadelphia Eagles 1982-1983) 4th Place Oilers/Titans Quarterback Career Record 59-66-0 (47.20%) 79th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 44-11-0 (80.00%) 40th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 15-55-0 (21.43%) 89th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 55/125 (44.00%) 81st (T) out of 102 (+7) Wins Above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (0.051) Dan Pastorini, NFL QB, Mets draft pick, backup punter and a winning Drag Racer? What an odd set of skills. In any case, Pastorini was the QB of the Oilers for most of the 70's, but he didn't get off to a very good start, struggling in his first three seasons and going 5-25 in his first 30 games. Throwing more int's than TD's was expected in the era, but his raw numbers were pretty bad too. Still, the Oilers kept their faith in him, and the Oilers started to win games in the 70's once they settled on Bum Phillips as their head coach. The Oilers didn't start getting pieces around him until 1978, where investments in the offensive line and hall of famer Earl Campbell meant the Oilers finally made the playoffs. With a reputation for comebacks and 4th quarter heroics in 78 and 79, the Oilers made the AFC Championship game twice, but was dismantled by the Steel Curtain in both attempts. He was traded to the Raiders for Ken Stabler in 1980, but broke his leg after a few mediocre starts and was quickly replaced by Jim Plunkett, who happened to win a super bowl for the Raiders. He went to the Rams after that, but was benched after throwing 14 picks in 5 starts. He turned into a vintage age Nathan Peterman all of a sudden. He hung around the league as a backup before finally retiring in 1983, and moving to a profitable drag racing career. Yes, seriously. As an interesting trivia note, Pastorini was the first player to wear a flak jacket, so he gets to be the pioneer of something. Pastorini was a guy who when he had everything working for him, could run the ship smoothly. When there was something wrong, he would collapse and try to make things happen, but he was about as adept at that as I am at cooking french cuisine. He was the third overall pick in the 71 draft behind Archie Manning and Jim Plunkett, and is definitely the forgotten guy of the bunch, but he played a long time for the Oilers and was about the definition of what you'd expect from a QB in the 70's.

1. : (Trade with Arizona for 4th and 27th overall picks and a 2020 3rd Rounder) Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma Gruden gets his grinder! Screw Derek Carr, let’s take the midget who’d rather play baseball and interviewed poorly. This is just such a classic Gruden move that I’d be surprised if anything less happened. 2. : Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State Well Arizona is certainly going to regret trading down, Bosa provides an excellent rusher for the 49ers who need talented players across the board. Don’t be surprised if the 49ers look to trade down here if they like another DLine prospect, but I don’t think they catch the Cardinals or Jets for enough gas. 3. : Josh Allen, DE, Kentucky The Jets nab a pass rusher, the best friend of a young QB is a strong defense. Allen will help make sure they can get off the field on 3rd down, and maybe give them a slight hope at beating the Patriots once this season. 4. (From OAK): Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan Gary provides some great talent on the DLine for a team that really lacks it. They’ve got Chandler Jones and nothing else. Gary provides a real threat and they’re hoping the trade down pans out for them. 5. : Greedy Williams, CB, LSU This is to make up for not getting Minkah when they had the chance. Not that it’ll work out for them, but that’s just Bucs football for you. 6. : Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama Turns out the Giants don’t like any QB in this draft class enough to take them at 6. They’re gonna continue beefing up their offensive line, and run this offense through Saquon Barkley. They might put Williams at RT to start, or just switch Solder there, but either way he improves a much maligned OLine greatly. 7. : Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama Why does it feel like Alabama just has all the prospects every year? College football is a fucking joke. In any case Williams falls a little, but the Jags are probably going to dump Malik Jackson so he makes a good replacement there. Nick Foles will almost certainly be the QB there. 8. : Devin White, LB, LSU Monkey See, Monkey Do. The Lions saw what the Bears did with Roquan Smith and decided they wanted a piece of that. White looks like a can’t miss prospect, but I’d eat that with a side of Aaron Curry. 9. (Trade with Buffalo. 15 and 46 for 9 and 182): Drew Lock, QB, Mizzou Washington gets their QB to replace Alex Smith after his tremendous injury. Nick Foles wasn’t going there, so they get their highest guy on the board. They need to jump the Broncos for the pick, since Elway loves him some shitty QB’s. 10. : Byron Murphy, CB, Washington Failing to get his guy, the Broncos elect to go with BPA rather than reach for a guy after signing another's teams trash at the QB position. They didn’t want to do it for Allen or Rosen, I doubt they’d want to do it for Haskins or Daniel Jones. Murphy helps a weakened secondary start to get its legs back while Elway rolls with Flacco. 11. : Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State New Coach, new QB in Cincy. They may not have a defensive coordinator, but who cares? The Dalton era is done, and he’ll be finding a new home in 2019. Where will that home be exactly? I’ve got a few ideas… 12. : Noah Fant, TE, Iowa Fuck it, let’s go wild. Rodgers needs weapons and this year reeks of a Packers last gasp effort for relevance. Fant will immediately provide a legitimate tight end for the Bucks owner to throw to, and with them trading for Antonio Brown (44 this year, a second next year), they have all the weapons Rodgers could possibly need. 13. : Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson The Dolphins are gonna tank for Tua 2020, so rather than take a chance on Daniel Jones or some other QB, they grab a strong pass rusher to replace Robert Quinn, and try to build the roster for the right time to shine. 14. : Ed Oliver, DT Houston The Falcons continue to bolster their defense so they can actually not get outpaced by the high flying offenses in their division. I certainly expect Oliver to fall well out of the top 5 and land somewhere in the mid teens, early twenties. 15. : Montez Sweat, DL, Miss State The Bills want to get faster on defense, and while getting another piece for the offense would have been nice, it’s just not in the cards for this draft class. Sweat is a physical specimen and gives the Bills more threats on defense that they desperately need if they want to see the postseason again in Blot’s lifetime. 16.: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama Insurance in case they start getting real sick of Eric Reid. Because hey, you never know. 17. (Trade with CLE, 17 for 26 and 90): DeAndre Baker, CB, Georgia The Colts got fleeced by the Patrick Mahomes show in the postseason last year, and need to commit to dealing with that. Secondary woes have always been a problem in Indy, but adding a top flight corner in Baker should help to alleviate those woes. They’ve also been linked to Landon Collins in free agency, so that should give their secondary a major boost. 18. : Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson The Vikings need to get their edge back, so a guy like Wilkins should be the perfect fit for them. He’s big, versatile, and relentless. He’ll pair well with Linval Joseph, and keep Everson and Hunter free to pursue the QB. Or at least, that’s the plan. 19. : A.J Brown, WR, Ole Miss The Titans need another receiver to keep the heat off Corey Davis, who really developed into a threat this past season. If Davis is splitting them open, Brown is reaping the benefits of a spread out defense with his hands and YAC potential. 20. : Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama The Steelers don’t typically do a rotational back thing, but with all the issues they had with Bell, they have to realize that they need two backs in this league. Bell won’t play another down for them again, Antonio Brown is getting traded away (in this mock) and almost certainly won’t play for them again, so they need some offensive weapons as they transition out of the Big Ben era. 21. : (From SEA, 21 for 29 and 63): Jachai Polite, OLB, Florida The chiefs nail their Justin Houston replacement with a big trade up. The Seahawks seem incredibly averse to drafting early in the first round, if at all, so they trade down and continue to build resources. Polite provides an excellent rusher for a Chiefs team who needs a lot of defensive help. Patrick Mahomes scores 26 points a game, you should almost never lose with that kind of offensive production. 22. (From BAL, 22 and 86 for 27 and 65): Jawann Taylor, LT, Florida The Cardinals offensive line was abysmal. If they’re going to commit to Josh Rosen, they need to protect him. We always see one or two really good prospects fall this far, and usually one of the better teams scoops them up, so honestly I think the chances of the Cardinals seeing this line is nearly nonexistent, but fuck it, my mock, my rules. 23. : Andre Dillard, LT, Washington State DeShaun Watson got sacked 62 times last season, if the Texans want to make noise in the AFC, they need to protect their QB. Anything but an offensive lineman at this pick is probably a mistake, unless a guy like Nick Bosa fell to them for some ungodly reason. 24. (From CHI): D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss Now that they’ve got their QB of the future, it’s time to get him some weapons. Metcalf is a classic height weight speed Raiduhs pickup. And he’s gonna be a classic Raiders bust. 25. : Devin Bush, LB, Michigan Bush gives the Eagles a rangy sideline to sideline tackler who can provide support to a team that really needs it. He’ll help a lot with the checkdowns that the NFC East QB’s are sure to rely upon against that Eagles front. 26. (From IND): Dre’Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State Jones provides the third head for the Cerberus that is the Cleveland defensive line. Ogunjobi, Garrett and Jones should provide a wrecking ball for the Browns for which their opportunistic corners will lay the foundation for victory. 27. (From ARI, From OAK, From DAL): Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State The run the ball 50 times a game strategy is not going to work in the NFL for very long, and the Ravens need to diversify their offense if they want to dance on the big stage. Jackson needs to continue to develop as a quarterback, and having a number 1 option who can actually catch and run will go a long way (sorry Crabtree, you were garbage last year). 28. : Brian Burns, OLB, Florida State Can you feel the Burns? He’s gonna get into the first round, maybe even earlier than this.Burns give the Chargers rotational depth at a position they desperately need. 29. (From KC); T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa Seahawks grab themselves a 3 down tight end who can help steady the run game for the Hawks and give Wilson a weapon during his improv sessions. He can really hock it up there for him. Ha. Ha. Ha. 30. (From NO): Zach Allen, DE, Boston College Allen gives the Packers a real bully on their defensive front and the teeth they need if they want to make a real playoff push. 31. : Cody Ford, OT, Oklahoma The Rams have the luxury of not needing to start him immediately, but he moves well and should provide value as a swing tackle or guard early, and when Whitworth retires, he’ll be ready to step in at LT. 32. (Kinda surprised I didn’t slot a trade in here): Amani Oyuwariye, CB, Penn State Fuck it, they the goats. They can do whatever. QB's in flux and where they go: Andy Dalton: Washington to rejoin Jay Gruden, maybe lets Drew Lock develop behind him. Ryan Tannehill: Green Bay as a backup. Oof. Case Keenum: Houston as a backup. Daniel Jones: Denver in the second round Will Grier: Jacksonville as a 3rd or later round pick Blake Bortles: Tampa Bay as a backup Derek Carr: Unloaded to the Giants to compete with Eli for the starting job Teddy Bridgewater: Stays in New Orleans Tyrod Taylor: To the Ravens as a backup

74. Bernie Kosar (Cleveland Browns 1985-1993, Dallas Cowboys 1993, Miami Dolphins 1994-1996) 2nd Place Browns Quarterback Career Record 55-57-1 (49.12%) 71st out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 39-17-1 (69.30%) 80th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 16-40-0 (28.57%) 47th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 57/113 (50.44%) 63rd out of 102 (-12) Wins Above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (0.000) Bernie Kosar gets to be the definition of average in my giant sample size. Exactly (well it's off by a few hundred thousandths, but shhhh) 0 games above average. Kosar is more of a joke than an actual well regarded player, but the last time the Browns had a real modicum of success were the Schottenheimer / Kosar years where they would make the playoffs consistently, only to get beat out by the Broncos. The Drive, The Fumble, all at the expense of Kosar's Browns. If we take just his years in the 80's into account, Kosar would have probably ended up ranked in the top 20, and that's not a joke. If we just took Bernie Kosar in the 90's he would have been just barely ahead of Archie Manning with a rate of -2.502 games below average per season. The divide is so wide it's sort of unbelievable. However a combination of injuries and alcoholism took it's toll on Kosar, and Belichick wanted nothing to do with him after becoming head coach in 1991. He was traded to the Cowboys in 1993, and was able to win a super bowl as a backup, before wiling away the rest of his days as Dan Marino's backup in Miami. His defenses have never been spectacular, nor have they been abysmal, always towing the 50% line. Kosar was 13-20 in the 80's when his defenses played poorly, and he dropped to 3-20 in the 90's. He was 28-7-1 when his defenses played well in the 80's, and dropped to 11-10 when they played well in the 90's. He didn't get to be the best Browns QB on this list, but I won't lie to you when I say he was really damn close. However he just played too long after concussions and injuries and never could reclaim the magic of 5 straight playoff appearances in his first 5 seasons. Some players just weren't meant to have long careers, and Kosar was one of them.

The Legion of Boom definitely sticks out to me, Seattle had a period of 4 straight years with the best scoring defense in the league. Some of the others that come to mind were the 49ers from 2011-2013, Patrick Willis, Justin Smith and the rest of those studs all retiring or leaving at once really sunk their ship though. I mean I'm biased towards the 2015 Broncos, but that's because we literally carried the aging sack of crap that was Peyton Manning in his final season.

Who?

75. Jake Plummer (Arizona Cardinals 1997-2002, Denver Broncos 2003-2006) 5th Place Cardinals QB and 5th Place Broncos QB Career Record 72-71-0 (50.35%) 64th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 60-16-0 (78.95%) 43rd out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 12-55-0 (17.91%) 96th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 76/143 (53.15%) 44th out of 102 (-32) Wins above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-0.025) Jake the Snake Plummer is certainly a name that fuels nostalgia in my mind. In addition to being the last player on this list in the negatives, he's also the first long time Broncos QB to make it onto this list. His is basically a tale of two careers, but Jake Plummer never took the stage for the third act, choosing to retire in his prime. I have no doubt that if he had played even a season longer, he would been in the positives on this list. Plummer began his career as the second round pick of the Arizona Cardinals, who were a snake bitten franchise who needed a spark at the QB position that they never had. Unfortunately for them, Plummer didn't quite help them get over the hump, because they needed a lot more than just a QB. Still, he was able to drag the Cardinals to .500 records early on in his career, but slumped in 99 and 2000. He rebounded with efficiency and another .500 record in 2001, but in his last year in Arizona he struggled and was replaced by the rookie Josh McCown. He was often known for choking and throwing interceptions at the worst possible time, and while this trend continued in Denver, he wasn't the sole playmaker on the team so he could play proficiently when the pressure wasn't on his back. The Broncos made playoff appearances in 03 and 04, and while they were met with early exits the needle was trending up for them. In 2005 the Broncos made the playoffs at 13-3, Plummer had his most efficient season, and he and the Broncos ended the Patriots 11 game postseason winning streak... however Plummer choked big time against the Steelers in the AFC Championship game, the Broncos drafted his replacement in Jay Cutler, and after a mediocre 7-4 start, the Broncos decided to pull the plug on the Plummer experiment. He was traded to the Tampa Bay Bucs in 2007, but he decided that he would rather retire than play for Jon Gruden. And so he ended his career at the age of 32. Plummer is basically the guy you'd want if NFL games were only three quarters long. In games where his defenses showed up, (aka most of his Broncos career), he was proficient and deadly winning nearly 79% of his games. If his defense decided to take a nap... well he would throw some costly interceptions and end the game, his 12-55 record in those games is near the worst out of all QB's in this measure, and the reason why he ends up just a fraction below average.

78. Jim Zorn (Seattle Seahawks 1976-1984, Green Bay Packers 1985, Tampa Bay Bucs 1987) 5th Place Seahawks Quarterback Career Record 43-61-0 (41.35%) 95th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 28-10-0 (73.68%) 67th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 15-51-0 (22.73%) 78th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 38/104 (36.54%) 99th out of 102 (+21) Wins Above Average in a 16 Game Season (-0.211) What? The numbers are out of order? I fucked up? Impossible, it's just your imagination. I may have forgot to carry over the numbers from the first two seasons of Zorn's career but uh, don't worry we're back on track now. Good thing for meticulous double checks right? Something the real Zorn could have learned in his coaching career (See the swinging gate for more details). In any case, Zorn was the first quarterback for the expansion Seahawks, and his NFL career went a good deal better than the expansion Bucs' first QB in the same time period. Though, as the QB of an expansion franchise, the early road was rough and bumpy as he struggled to develop rapport, deal with a flimsy offensive line, and the defensive prowess of the Raiders, Broncos and Chiefs in that time period. However, he quickly found a connection with hall of famer Steve Largent, and the Seahawks started to take off by the end of the 70's, and strung together a few winning seasons. However the team was often outmatched, and Zorn could never break into the playoffs on his own, and only got a shot once the Seahawks handed over the reins to Dave Krieg in 1983. Zorn stayed the backup, but got a fair amount of playing time as a backup because Krieg had issues staying on the field. The only playoff game he got to play in was in relief of Krieg after he threw 3 interceptions in 9 passes, and he couldn't overcome that massive hole he was put in. He bounced around to a few different teams after the Hawks cut ties in 84, but he didn't get more than a spot start here or there, even taking a trip to Winnipeg for a season. As you'd expect from the QB of an expansion team, Zorn had some truly awful defenses. He wasn't the worst on this list, but honestly he was close enough. He got a lot of respect for grinding through some difficult times, and is still well beloved by old school Seahawks fans, even if he isn't breaking records on this list. He didn't stray too far from what you'd expect from a quarterback placed around here, he was just a tinge below the average marks in situations with good and bad defenses, he just had a lot more bad defenses on his part that he needed to overcome.

76. Jeff Blake (New York Jets 1992-1993, Cincinnati Bengals 1994-1999, New Orleans Saints 2000-2001, Baltimore Ravens 2002, Arizona Cardinals 2003, Philadelphia Eagles 2004, Chicago Bears 2005) 5th Place Bengals Quarterback Career Record 39-60-0 (39.39%) 96th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 21-11-0 (65.63%) 93rd out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 18-49-0 (26.87%) 56th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 32/99 (32.32%) 102nd out of 102 (+25) Wins above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-0.110) We're getting very close to the end of quarterbacks who finished just below average, and Jeff Blake provides an interesting case study on things I could maybe improve upon in my study, or tweaks for the future to adjust players with either really good defenses throughout their career, or in Blake's case really bad defenses. I'm not sure what exactly those adjustments would entail, but allow me to ramble a little bit about an underrated player. Jeff Blake, out of all the quarterbacks on this study comes out with the worst defenses on average. He only managed to make 99 starts, but only in 32 of them did his defense allow less than 21 points, which is just pathetic. Blake was the primary starter for the Bengals in the 90's, he was drafted by the Jets, but never really broke through in New York as a late round pick. He went to the Bengals to backup David Klingler (yeah, him), but eventually took the job after Klinger got hurt. He established great rapport with the offense, but his defenses were abysmal, and he was only able to win 39 games in his career. The Bengals never really bought into Blake, constantly trying to replace him with guys like Neil O'Donnell, ancient Boomer Esiason, and eventually first round pick Akili Smith in 1999. Blake ended up leaving to join the Saints afterwards, but found himself replaced by Aaron Brooks in his only winning season after he broke his foot, and he never got his job back. He bounced around as a backup to a lot of different teams, including starting most of the season for 2003 Cardinals, and almost won a super bowl as an Eagles backup in 2004, but he never really got a team to believe in him and his potential. The big dig on Blake is that his record wasn't impressive when his defense actually did show up. Though these were often defensive brawls with division rivals and the Bengals were woefully outmatched most of the time. He did do a lot to keep his team in a lot of games they had no business being in, the Bengals of the 90's were easily one of the worst teams of the decade, if not the worst. He was adept at extending plays and getting a lot of YPA, but he could never overcome his bad defenses. Still, despite all of that, he ended up just a hair below average, and ahead of some super bowl winning quarterbacks. He obviously never got a chance to play in the postseason.

77. Chris Chandler (Indianapolis Colts 1988-1989, Tampa Bay Bucs 1990-1991, Phoenix Cardinals 1991-1993, Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams 1994 and 2004, Houston Oilers 1995-1996, Atlanta Falcons 1997-2001, Chicago Bears 2002-2003) 6th Place Cardinals QB and 5th Place Oilers/Titans QB and 4th Place Falcons QB Career Record 68-76-0 (47.22%) 78th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 49-21-0 (70.00%) 78th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 19-55-0 (25.68%) 61st out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 70/144 (48.61%) 67th out of 102 (-11) Wins above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-0.117) I just want to say before starting this thing up, fuck Chris Chandler. If I had to point one player who made this study as difficult as possible, I'd point to ol glass bones here. Most QB's I only had to adjust 3-5 games for them. If they had a longer career, the number may have gone up to 7-9, maybe as high as 10, but more often than not I wasn't doing a lot of adjustments for starts. Chris Chandler needed 23 adjustments. He only started 144 games, no where near the top of these lists. He had a long ass career, that's for sure, but it was constantly mired by random injuries, so much so that he earned the nickname Crystal Chandelier. M Night Shaymalan made a movie about his evil twin called Unbreakable. Ok, that's enough about his durability, let's get into his ability. Chris Chandler was a journeyman, in every sense of the word. He managed to start for 7 different teams over his career, which is tied for the most in league history. He was a third round pick for the Colts in 1988, but after two hot and cold seasons, and the arrival of Jeff George he became a Buc for a year and a half before being traded to the Cardinals. he played most of the season in 1992 for them, but got injured early in 1994 and was replaced by Steve Beuerlein. He played for the Rams for one season in 94, splitting time with Chris Miller, before moving to the Oilers in 1995 where he acted as the bridge QB for Jeff Fisher and his team's move to Nashville. He actually managed to stay somewhat healthy in Houston, only missing 7 out of a possible 32 starts, and seems to inspire enough confidence to get a starting job on his 6th team, the Atlanta Falcons. And if his career had ended before he got to the Falcons, he would have never sniffed averaged, but he seemed to get healthier in his early 30's, and he managed to lead his team to a super bowl in 1998 after going 13-1 in the regular season, and knocking off the favoured Vikings in an offensive shootout, more remembered for Gary Anderson missing a kick than anything the Falcons did in that game. He wasn't able to capitalize on that success, but the Falcons kept him around until 2001 where he helped mentor Michael Vick. He ended his career going to the Bears, and having one last stint with the Rams before finally hanging it up. 1998 was the only season where he made the playoffs, he spent most of his time being a bridge quarterback for bigger and better players. If not for the portion of his career with the Falcons, Chandler may have ended up much closer to the bottom of this list. I don't think he would have supplanted Archie for last place or anything, but the dude was basically Proto Ryan Fitzpatrick but with injury issues. Teams kept taking a chance on him, and he kept doing mediocre jobs, his only winning seasons were his rookie year (where he handed off to Eric Dickerson a lot) and his insane 1998 season that really just came out of nowhere (and also he handed off the ball to Jamal Anderson a lot). His defenses were a shade below average, his play in games was a shade below average, and in the end, he ends up a shade below average. Chris Chandler won't be fondly remembered by many people... and I won't remember him fondly either. Actually running the numbers yields that Chandler would have tied with Jim Harbaugh if 1998 never happened. Wild.

What if we never benched Jake Plummer for Jay Cutler?

79. Richard Todd (New York Jets 1976-1983, New Orleans Saints 1984-1985) 4th Place Jets Quarterback Career Record 49-56-1 (46.70%) 83rd out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 37-14-0 (72.55%) 69th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 12-42-1 (22.73%) 79th (T) out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 51/106 (48.11%) 69th out of 102 (-10) Wins above Average starter in a 16 Game Season (-0.249) How odd, another AFC East QB right after this last one. Richard Todd, or as no one ever called him, Dick Toddy, was the Jets plans to replace their legendary soon to be hall of fame quarterback, Joe Namath in the 70's. He's also the beginning of the long line of mediocrity the Jets have come to expect at the position. For a while he held the record for most completions in a game with 42 (later broken by Bledsoe actually) and simultaneous most games with an interception in a season with picks in 15 of 16 games. He's had a game where he's had a passer rating of zero, and a game where he's had a perfect passer rating. The Jets made the playoffs twice in his career, once in 1981 losing to the Buffalo Bills in the wild card round after a 4 INT day. And once in 1982, making it all the way to the AFC Championship game before getting shut out by the Dolphins and capping it off with 5 interceptions. Once the Jets drafted Ken O'Brien the next off-season, the writing was on the wall for Todd, who had been embroiled in QB competitions before. And at the end of the 83 season, he was jettisoned out to New Orleans, where QB's went to die. He started 1984 as the starter there, but got pulled near the end of the season, and was down to being the third string QB in 1985. He had a brief stint as a Jets backup in 86, but never saw the field and was cut midway through the season. Todd's career arc is actually pretty similar to Bledsoe's in that he was remarkably inconsistent. However while Bledsoe was less effective at winning the easy games, Todd didn't quite win at the same rate against great defenses, in fact those were the games where he usually compiled his high interception totals. In the end, his inconsistency meant that he couldn't end much higher on this list but he did overcome a fair share of adversity in his career. Although the end result was slight underachievement, you can see the Jets have clearly had worse days than the Todd Era.

80. Drew Bledsoe (New England Patriots 1993-2001, Buffalo Bills 2002-2004, Dallas Cowboys 2005-2006) 4th Place Patriots QB and 2nd Place Bills QB and 6th Place Cowboys QB Career Record 100-97-0 (50.76%) 62nd out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 73-40-0 (64.60%) 95th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 27-57-0 (32.14%) 31st out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 113/197 (57.36%) 29th out of 102 (-51) Wins above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-0.253) Well we've got the first Patriot to fall, and it was the golden boy himself, Drew Bledsoe. This former first overall pick spent his entire career basically being a cannon. Completely immobile but could fire bombs anywhere down the field. He was famous for being in a lot of shootouts with Jim Kelly and Dan Marino. He had his fair share of success with the Patriots, making it to a super bowl in 1996 but coming up short against a stacked Packers squad. He got wrecked by Mo Lewis, and that started the legacy of a player we'll be seeing a lot further down the list. He was able to relieve mister Brady in the AFC Championship game against the Steelers and get a big win before conceding the starting job to Brady, taking a super bowl ring as a backup, and finding himself exiled to Buffalo. He started three seasons there, but unable to take the Bills to the promised land, they dumped him for their shining star of the 2004 draft class... JP Losman. Yeah, that's rough buddy. He ended up on the Cowboys where he started for 1 and a half seasons, but ended up getting benched at halftime and replaced by another player who will be showing up much later on this list in Tony Romo. At least two of the three guys who ended up replacing him turned out to do pretty well for their teams. Drew was known for three things when it came to his play. Slinging it down the field, throwing costly interceptions, and taking a whole lot of hits. He managed to be pretty resilient, only missing games due to injury once in his long career. He played in a lot of shootouts, and actually did really well in those games winning nearly 1/3rd of them which is incredible when the average is around 22% for QB's overall and is skewed high by basically 2-4 guys an era. However, his gambling style did lead him to lose a lot of games a steadier QB would win, going a miserable 73-40 in games with good defense, and basically ruining the great defenses he played with throughout his career. That number of good defenses kind of surprised me, but then you remember that Belichick and these dynasty Patriots inherited a lot of defensive talent, and the Bills and Cowboys happened to have some real stars in the years Bledsoe was there, like DeMarcus Ware, Terrence Newman, London Fletcher, Nate Clements, etc... So all in all, Bledsoe comes in a little bit below average, but that's more due to inconsistency than game managing like the previous two entries on this list.

Congrats man, saying sober is tough.

81. Trent Dilfer (Tampa Bay Bucs 1994-1999, Baltimore Ravens 2000, Seattle Seahawks 2001-2004, Cleveland Browns 2005, San Francisco 49ers 2006-2007) 4th Place Bucs QB and 3rd Place Ravens QB Career Record 61-56-0 (52.14%) 53rd out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 51-20-0 (71.83%) 73rd out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 10-36-0 (21.74%) 87th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 71/117 (60.68%) 19th out of 102 (-62) Wins above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-0.261) From one super bowl winning QB to another, Trent Dilfer is often remembered as the worst super bowl winning QB of all time. I don't disagree with that assessment in the slightest. Doug Williams may have finished a fraction worse by the raw numbers, but Williams spent a good chunk of his prime in the USFL, Dilfer doesn't have that excuse. Doug Williams also started his career on a Bucs team two years out of an expansion draft. Dilfer started his career on a Bucs team that had been around for nearly 20 years when he showed up. Dilfer's start in Tampa was miserable, he was a turnover machine, but by virtue of being a high draft pick, and a sheer lack of talent in Tampa, he got time to improve and settle for mediocrity as the Bucs defense developed into a legendary force with guys like Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks and John Lynch. He turned himself into a game manager, making safe throws, handing the ball off, and never rocking the boat... and thanks to the teams around him, that kind of pansy ass play worked. Trent Dilfer was never asked to win games, he was simply asked not to lose them, and he was a .500 QB for most of his time there. He never could get them over the hump and eventually Tampa got sick of him and decided to move on. Dilfer joined the Ravens in 2000 as a backup, and quickly got the start when Anthony Banks could not do a damn thing for them. Trent Dilfer may not have been good, but he could at least find a wide open Shannon Sharpe and hand the ball off to a wrecking ball in Jamal Lewis. And the Ravens defense... could do the rest as they carried him to a Super Bowl victory. His time in Baltimore was cut short after a season, and he spent his time as the backup to Matt Hasslebeck in Seattle, before going to Cleveland to become part of the hydra, before finally going to San Francisco to be the backup to wunderkind Alex Smith. He hung up the cleats in 2007 as the worst QB to ever win a super bowl. He was sub optimal when his defense did show up, and when they didn't he may as well not have even been on the field because he rarely helped pull his team out a clinch. He isn't the biggest underachiever when it comes to the strength of his defenses, but if he had played less games for Cleveland and San Francisco he probably would have been. He was quite fortunate to be the QB of two of the best defenses of the late 90's - early 00's and fortunate to break the 90 starts needed to get on this list after the terrible start to his career (seriously, he threw 18 picks to just 4 TDs in his first year starting). Still, he managed to be right around the league average and for a guy who looks more at home snorting meth out of his parent's bathtub, being a below average QB is really making a name for yourself. You're doing momma Dilfer proud, Trent.

Well by virtue of the way this list is curated, I expect you'll recognize most of the names on the list, the only ones that may lead to some doubts are the guys from the 70's and 80's who just sort of snuck onto the list.

82. Doug Williams (Tampa Bay Bucs 1978-1982, Washington Redskins 1986-1989) 5th Place Bucs QB and 8th Place Redskins QB Career Record 46-43-1 (51.67%) 56th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 36-16-1 (68.87%) 82nd out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 10-27-0 (27.03%) 55th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 53/90 (58.89%) 24th out of 102 (-58) Wins Above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-0.270) Oh hey, we've got the first Super Bowl winning starter on this list. Doug Williams certainly made history for the Redskins, being one of the three guys to win it during the Joe Gibbs era, and perhaps more important historically, being the first Black Quarterback to make that achievement. The funny thing is that Doug Williams wasn't originally going to be on this list for a lack of starts, but I said fuck it, he won a super bowl and he's close so it's worth a look. After doing my adjustments for relief games and playoff games, he actually did qualify for starts so lucky us hahaha. Doug's career is a tale in three acts and it's honestly quite an interesting one. He was drafted by the Tampa Bay Bucs by the recommendation of their offensive coordinator, one Joe Gibbs who loved what he saw out of him and wanted to make him into the Bucs franchise QB, after going through the hell that is the Gary Huff / Steve Spurrier... who the hell even are these guys battery that the Bucs suffered through early in their history. The Bucs made the playoffs three times in five years under his play, including a conference championship in his sophomore year. He was the lowest paid QB in the league and wanted to be 600k a season, but their owner at the time wanted nothing to do with that, so he quit the NFL and joined the USFL, making it so once again there were no black QB's in the NFL. He toiled in the soon to be defunct league until it collapsed in 1986, and rejoined Gibbs in Washington as the backup to Jay Schroeder. In 1987 he made magic happen in his games played, replacing Schroeder multiple times throughout the season and winning each game. Gibbs rode the hot hand in the postseason, and Williams became the first Black QB to win a super bowl. He stayed the starter in 88 but couldn't replicate the magic and was replaced soon after, and finally decided to hang up the cleats in 1989. As you can see, Williams had some incredible defenses in his career, between the Bucs getting their act together on defense in the early 80's, and the Redskins being the second best team of the 80's, Doug got to play with a lot of talent and was rather fortunate to have a hall of fame coach who liked him. His record when his defense showed up was well below expectations though, and he did tend to go invisible when the Bucs needed him the most. Still, he was a scrappy, intelligent player with a good arm, and he was an important part of NFL history.

83. Daunte Culpepper (Minnesota Vikings 1999-2005, Miami Dolphins 2006, Oakland Raiders 2007, Detroit Lions 2008-2009) 8th Place Vikings QB Career Record 42-58-0 (42.00%) 92nd out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 29-11-0 (72.50%) 70th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 13-47-0 (21.67%) 88th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 40/100 (40.00%) 91st out of 102 (+8) Wins above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-0.282) Who remembers Daunte Culpepper? Dude was going to be the next big thing in Minnesota, he and Randy Moss were going to live the dream and be the next Montana and Rice and that... never happened. Randy Moss still had a hell of a career, but Culpepper's career took a big nosedive post 2004. The Vikings made it to the NFC Championship in his first year starting in 2000, but the team could not repeat that success as Culpepper struggled in 2001 and 2002. He got it together in 2003 and 2004, throwing all over the field, using his legs to extend plays and make plays of his own and nearly had a MVP season in 2004 throwing for 39 TDs, 11 INTs and nearly 5000 yards. If his career continued on that track, he would have been a Vikings legend. Sadly things weren't meant to be. Moss was traded at the end of the 04 season because Joe Buck was disgusted by his mooning celebration, and Culpepper had to operate without the best WR in football. He was interception prone and sack prone in 2005, and halfway through the season he got his knee shredded on a nasty hit, and never was the same dual threat ever again after that hit. The whole love boat scandal happened not soon after, and Culpepper was gone from the Vikings. He ended up becoming a Dolphin, struggling there, getting hurt and getting benched. Then he joined the Raiders after Moss had just left, to be JaMarcus Russell's backup, but once again struggled with injuries and inconsistent play. He joined the Lions after a brief retirement, but just happened to be one of the guys who helped contribute to the Lions 0-16 campaign before getting hurt once again. Daunte's tale is one of two different careers, and it's so interesting to see just a dramatic divide between what could have been an all time great, and what ended up being a washed up Qb looking for his last semblance of glory. He's the first QB on this list so far to overachieve compared to his defensive ranking, but his record in either situation with his defense was not impressive and thanks to his prolonged career post 2004, he burned his chance of being considered an above average starter for his career.

Can't wait for the Patriots to 'overcome this adversity' and win another Super Bowl.

Josh Rosen was also in that draft class, so I mean... small mercies. They did wait 20 years to make the make postseason only to put up 3 points against the jags so that's pretty rough.

84. Steve Bartkowski (Atlanta Falcons 1975-1985, Los Angeles Rams 1986) 5th Place Falcons QB Career Record 59-67-0 (46.83%) 82nd out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 45-18-0 (71.43%) 75th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 14-49-0 (22.22%) 82nd out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 63/126 (50.00%) 64th (T) out of 102 (-20) Wins above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-0.413) The man, the myth, the legend. Steve Bartkowski was certainly 1 of these things for Falcons fans in the 70's and 80's. Another first overall pick, which is a common trend at this point, QB is the position most likely to be taken at that spot after all, he was drafted ahead of hall of famers like Randy White and Walter Payton. Expected to be the saviour of the franchise early on he was.... not to say the least. He suffered a knee injury in his second season (something of a common trend in his long career), and was benched in his third while the Gritz Blitz was doing its thing. It took until his 6th season in 1980 to finally throw for more touchdowns than interceptions, and he actually gave the Falcons a fair shot to win the NFC that year, but when it mattered the most, his defense let him down in his playoff attempt. The Falcons never really had another opportunity to make the postseason, (sneaking into the 16 team race in 1982 at 5-4 but being quickly dispatched by the Vikings), as Bartkowski wasted most of his defense's good years being hurt, or terrible, or out partying. He did get his career together in the second half, but by that time his defense had folded. He had very efficient seasons in his last two years in Atlanta, but went 3-13 in those seasons, ended up being released, and finished his career with the Rams as part of a QB battery with the rookie Jim Everett and the bridge QB Steve Dils (Yes, that's his name). His defenses were exactly average for his career, but as you can see by this list, he skews below average for long term starters overall. What that means is that typically QB's who have long careers have strong defenses to thank for that. Although that doesn't necessarily mean there is a correlation, but it's something to consider at least. If Bartowski had found his groove earlier in his career, perhaps he would have been a threat for the top 50 on this list, but his skills took a long time to polish and that puts him strictly in the average / below average category he finds himself in now.

85. Aaron Brooks (Green Bay Packers 1999, New Orleans Saints 2000-2005, Oakland Raiders 2006) 5th Place Saints QB Career Record 39-53-0 (42.39%) 91st out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 24-15-0 (61.54%) 99th(T) out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 15-38-0 (28.30%) 49th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 39/92 (42.39%) 85th out of 102 (0) Wins Above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-0.414) Aaron Brooks had a very weird trajectory for his career, and he's basically just Saints trivia at this point. His career was a very short 7 seasons, but he was the first QB to ever win a post season game for the Saints. While the Saints had made the postseason several times in the Dome Patrol era, they were bounced in the wild card each of the 4 times they showed up. Aaron Brooks led the Saints to the postseason in his rookie year, and outscored the Greatest Show on Turf in 2000 before folding to the Vikings in the divisional round. Brooks never tasted the playoffs again after that, but his play in his rookie season brought a lot of hope to Saints fans. However, the saints were plagued with poor defense for most of the 2000's, and Brooks could only keep the team around .500 before having a major collapse in 2005 that got him benched, got his coach Jim Haslett fired, and Sean Payton brought in. Drew Brees became a free agent, and Brooks' time in New Orleans was done in a rather ignominious fashion. He joined the Raiders the next season, but played musical chairs at the position with Andrew Walter and could never recover the magic he displayed early in his career. Brooks was released at the end of the season, and decided to hang them up at age 30. Brooks was a remarkably inconsistent player, his record when his defenses showed up to play was among the worst of all players in this study, and yet he had a knack for the dramatic, always seeming to match the offenses he faced, and playing a lot of games tight until the 4th quarter. However, he took a serious decline at 29, and it may have had something to do with being unable to adjust to losing his speed as he got older, and his teams lost 18 of his last 21 starts as a result.

And we're onto the last player in the Journeyman Rank. The guys from here on qualify as average. Behold, mediocrity! 86. Joe Ferguson (Buffalo Bills 1973-1984, Detroit Lions 1985-1987, Tampa Bay Bucs 1988-1989, Indianapolis Colts 1990) 3rd Place Bills QB Career Record 80-90-0 (47.06%) 80th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 59-28-0 (67.82%) 86th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 21-62-0 (25.30%) 66th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 87/170 (51.18%) 57th out of 102 (-29) Wins Above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-0.507) Joe Ferguson, aka the guy who handed the ball off to OJ Simpson had a long... very long career for the Bills. During his first 3 seasons in the league, he barely had to throw the ball more than 20 times a games, letting Juice do all the work. His fortunes changed around 1977 when he needed to become the centrepiece of the offense and sling it down field a lot more. Of course, the Bills got much worse as a result, toiling in mediocrity for most of the early live ball era. The Bills drafted Jim Kelly in 1983, but he went to go play in the USFL, so Ferguson got to start for a couple more seasons, but after an abysmal 1-10 showing in 1984, the Bills finally decided to move on. He bounced around as a backup in Detroit, Tampa and Indianapolis before finally hanging up the cleats in 1990. Ferguson's raw numbers for the era weren't very impressive but he stayed healthy, kept his TD:INT ratio around 1, and his completion percentage a shade above 50% for most of his prime, and he managed to have a long career, especially for the era he played in. Nobody will talk about Ferguson as one of the all time greats, but he was just a solid game managerwho was occasionally prone to a real stinker of a game from time to time. He was fortunate to play with OJ Simpson for most of the dead ball era which probably contributed to his long career, the game is a lot easier when you only have to throw 20 times a game. The Bills made the playoffs three times in his career, losing in the Divisional Round each time.

70's Steelers won on the back of one of the greatest defenses of all time, Swann and Stallworth were average compared to the other receivers of the era. The 49ers had two great QB's in their dynasty and an incredibly underrated scoring defense. Rice was a great piece, but the 49ers would have won all of those super bowls without him. The only super bowl the Colts won was the one where the defense decided to show up for the post season and Peyton decided not to choke against the Patriots that year. Harrison was notorious for going quiet in big playoff games, and Wayne wasn't much better in that regard. You need a team effort to win a super bowl and WR's simply contribute less than all of the other positions on the field barring special teamers by nature of their position. They don't see action unless the other guys are doing their job properly.

Dan Snyder, ya fuckstick.