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RazorStar

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Everything posted by RazorStar

  1. RazorStar

    TGP Pickem week 3

    Thursday: Titans > Jags Sunday: Eagles > Lions Patriots > Jets Raiders > Vikings Chiefs > Ravens Colts > Falcons Packers > Broncos Cowboys > Dolphins Bengals > Bills Bucs > Giants Cardinals > Panthers 49ers > Steelers Seahawks > Saints Chargers > Texans Rams > Browns Monday: Redskins > Bears TB: 44
  2. RazorStar

    Razor's QB Rankings 2019

    Hello everyone, it's another year of this. Most of you are familiar with the general premise of what I do for these rankings, basing it solely on offensive efficiency. These stats are completion percentage, TD/ATT, TO/ATT, and Yards per Attempt, with sacks, rushing attempts and fumbles factored into the equation as well. For my numbers, a fumble counts as 1/2 of a turnover whether the offense ends up giving the ball away or not, as sometimes you have scenarios where a guy fumbles 15 times but never loses possession, while a guy who only fumbles 5 times and loses possession every time should not be punished more for variance. Any ties on my list are sorted by Yards per Attempt, as I find that is the best measure of determining a winning QB. We started week 1 with 3 absurdly impressive performances for QB's who had a lot to live up to with the season looming. Lamar Jackson was treated as just a runningback trying to play QB, Dak Prescott decided to bet on himself and go for a big contract rather than take a midlevel deal, and Patrick Mahomes needed to silence the doubters that he couldn't repeat an MVP caliber season. All of them have made great strides in silencing that narrative. The big stories otherwise include Kirk Cousins failing to qualify on attempts in a win, Gardner Minshew coming out of nowhere and looking like a beast against the Chiefs defense, and business as usual for Tom Brady and Drew Brees who are once again playing at a high caliber in their 40's. As this is week 1, there is still lots of room for these numbers to vary wildly, so take the early rankings with a grain of salt. They really don't start to form an accurate picture until the midway mark of the season, so keep that in mind. Week 1 Rankings 1. Dak Prescott 13 2. Lamar Jackson 14 3. Patrick Mahomes 17 4. Tom Brady 29 5. Derek Carr 30 6. Case Keenum 34 7. Carson Wentz 36 8. Gardner Minshew 41 9. Marcus Mariota 47 10. Drew Brees 49 11. Russell Wilson 52 12. Jacoby Brissett 54 13. Philip Rivers 55 14. Deshaun Watson 55 15. Eli Manning 65 16. Matthew Stafford 66 17. Joe Flacco 66 18. Andy Dalton 69 19. Matt Ryan 74 20. Josh Allen 74 21. Jimmy Garoppolo 82 22. Aaron Rodgers 83 23. Sam Darnold 88 24. Kyler Murray 92 25. Ryan Fitzpatrick 93 26. Cam Newton 94 27. Baker Mayfield 97 28. Ben Roeth 99 29. Jared Goff 100 30. Mitch Trubisky 104 31. Jameis Winston 112
  3. RazorStar

    Razor's QB Rankings 2019

    2019 QB Rankings Week 2 1. Lamar Jackson 10 (+1) 2. Dak Prescott 14 (-1) 3. Patrick Mahomes 15 4. Tom Brady 22 5. Russell Wilson 28 (+6) 6. Case Keenum 34 7. Jimmy Garoppolo 48 (+14) 8. Gardner Minshew 54 9. Matthew Stafford 57 (+7) 10. Marcus Mariota 57 (-1) 11. Drew Brees 58 (-1) 12. Jacoby Brissett 63 13. Josh Allen 64 (+7) 14. Carson Wentz 66 (-7) 15. Philip Rivers 67 (-2) 16. Derek Carr 69 (-11) 17. Joe Flacco 69 18. Andy Dalton 71 19. Deshaun Watson 73 (-5) 20. Aaron Rodgers 74 (+2) 21. Jared Goff 77 (+8) 22. Matt Ryan 81 (-3) 23. Kirk Cousins 83 (NR) 24. Sam Darnold 83 (-1) 25. Kyler Murray 89 (-1) 26. Eli Manning 90 (-11) 27. Baker Mayfield 95 28. Mitch Trubisky 96 (+2) 29. Jameis Winston 102 (+2) 30. Teddy Bridgewater 102 (NR) 31. Cam Newton 104 (-5) 32. Ben Roeth 105 (-4) 33. Ryan Fitzpatrick 124 (-8)
  4. RazorStar

    How many Hall of Famers are on your team?

    Should be on their way: Von Miller Outside shot but needs a lot of work: Bradley Chubb, Philip Lindsay Is the hall really dumb enough to let every guy in who wins a super bowl at QB: Joe Flacco No Chance: Basically everyone else
  5. RazorStar

    8values

    So I found one of those political compass type quizzes and I thought it was interesting enough to be considered worth posting. https://8values.github.io/index.html It's 70 questions and it rates you based on 4 axes, Economic, Diplomatic, State(Liberty v Authority), and Society (general progressiveness). Here were my results.
  6. RazorStar

    Week 2

    Cam Newton needs to retire, he's looked like one of the worst QB's in the league ever since his shoulder injury last season. Dude just doesn't have it anymore, and it doesn't seem like his game will adjust to his loss of athleticism. Bring on the Will Grier experiment
  7. RazorStar

    Razor's QB Rankings 2019

    enjoy it while it lasts.
  8. RazorStar

    Historical QB Rankings

    Hey everyone, it's been a long time coming, but I'm finally ready to put up the results of what I've been working on over the season. I wanted to find a way to adjust a QB's play for what his defense does, and see how often a guy can overcome a bad performance from his defense, or likewise, fail to win even when the defense has a stellar game. In order to do that I needed a whole lot of data. Every single game a QB started or played most of the game (including postseason), the average amount of points a defense allowed in each year, and how often a QB won in those situations. So doing a lot of number crunching, and by examining the years in the Super Bowl Era, I came up with a list of 102 QB's, sorted by 4 separate eras marked by important rule changes or historical reasons. To qualify for this list, a QB must have had 90 starts (including postseason), or 80 starts in the dead ball era (14 game seasons meant I needed a little leeway). Starts in this case are games where the QB played most of or all of the game. (Tom Brady doesn't get credit for starting the game where Bernard Pollard broke his leg, for example). By having the data for all of the eras, you can find the expected win percentage of a QB in games where their defense played well, and the expected win percentage when their defense played poorly. This list is sorted by the player with the most wins above replacement in a 16 game season, to the player with the least. With all of that in mind, let's go ahead and start this list. Current List: Tier 7: Garbage (2 or more wins below the average starter a season) 102. Archie Manning (New Orleans Saints) (-2.886) Tier 6: Career Backup (1-2 wins below the average starter a season) 101. Chris Miller (Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams) (-1.335) 100. Jeff George (Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders) (-1.162) 99. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets, Bucs) (-1.123) 98. Steve DeBerg (San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Bucs and Kansas City Chiefs) (-1.055) 97. Norm Snead (Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants) (-1.028) Tier 5: Journeyman (0.5-1 wins below the average starter a season) 96. Jon Kitna (Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions) (-0.865) 95. Ron Jaworski (Philadelphia Eagles) (-0.841) 94. Vinny Testaverde (Tampa Bay Bucs, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets) (-0.807) 93. Jim Harbaugh (Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, and San Diego Chargers) (-0.790) 92. Ken O'Brien (New York Jets) (-0.743) 91. Kerry Collins (Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans) (-0.713) 90. Jim Everett (Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints) (-0.602) 89. Greg Landry (Detroit Lions) (-0.586) 88. Lynn Dickey (Green Bay Packers) (-0.533) 87. Steve Beuerlein (Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers) (-0.530) 86. Joe Ferguson (Buffalo Bills) (-0.507) Tier 4: Average (0.5 wins above to 0.5 wins below the average starter a season) 85. Aaron Brooks (New Orleans Saints) (-0.414) 84. Steve Bartkowski (Atlanta Falcons) (-0.413) 83. Daunte Culpepper (Minnesota Vikings) (-0.282) 82. Doug Williams (Washington Redskins) (-0.270) 81. Trent Dilfer (Tampa Bay Bucs and Baltimore Ravens) (-0.261) 80. Drew Bledsoe (New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys) (-0.253) 79. Richard Todd (New York Jets) (-0.249) 78. Jim Zorn (Seattle Seahawks) (-0.211) 77. Chris Chandler (Arizona Cardinals, Houston Oilers and Atlanta Falcons) (-0.117) 76. Jeff Blake (Cincinnati Bengals) (-0.110) 75. Jake Plummer (Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos) (-0.025) 74. Bernie Kosar (Cleveland Browns) (0.000) 73. Dan Pastorini (Houston Oilers) (0.051) 72. Jeff Garcia (San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.075) 71. Warren Moon (Houston Oilers, Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.081) 70. Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.091) 69. Brian Sipe (Cleveland Browns) (0.115) 68. Ken Anderson (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.147) 67. Jay Cutler (Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears) (0.165) 66. Bert Jones (Baltimore Colts) (0.218) 65. John Hadl (San Diego Chargers, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers) (0.238) 64. Boomer Esiason (Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets) (0.260) 63. Jim Plunkett (New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers and Oakland/L.A. Raiders) (0.286) 62. Jim Hart (St. Louis Cardinals) (0.294) 61. Craig Morton (Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Denver Broncos) (0.342) 60. Mark Brunell (Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins) (0.350) 59. Neil O'Donnell (Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets) (0.362) 58. Gus Frerotte (Washington Redskins, Lions, Broncos, Bengals, Vikings, Dolphins, Rams) (0.367) 57. Neil Lomax (St. Louis/Arizona Cardinals) (0.368) 56. Tommy Kramer (Minnesota Vikings) (0.375) 55. Dave Krieg (Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.379) 54. Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions) (0.412) 53. Marc Bulger (St. Louis Rams) (0.475) 52. Billy Kilmer (San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints and Washington Redskins) (0.476) 51. Jake Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) (0.483) Tier 3: Good (0.5-1 wins above the average starter a season) 50. Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals, Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals) (0.568) 49. Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) (0.591) 48. Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) (0.591) (1.266 without adjustment) 47. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.608) 46. Bobby Hebert (New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons) (0.610) 45. Philip Rivers (San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers) (0.614) 44. Phil Simms (New York Giants) (0.639) 43. Roman Gabriel (Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.653) 42. Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans) (0.719) 41. Brad Johnson (Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.722) 40. Dan Fouts (San Diego Chargers) (0.738) 39. Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys) (0.748) 38. Trent Green (Kansas City Chiefs) (0.821) 37. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) (0.840) 36. Jim McMahon (Chicago Bears) (0.875) (1.705 without adjustment) 35. Eli Manning (New York Giants) (0.884) 34. Michael Vick (Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.890) 33. Steve Grogan (New England Patriots) (0.989) Tier 2: Franchise QB (1-2 wins above the average starter a season) 32. Joe Namath (New York Jets) (1.002) 30t. Jay Schroeder (Washington Redskins and Los Angeles Raiders) (1.056) 30t. Joe Theismann (Washington Redskins) (1.056) 29. Steve McNair (Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans) (1.064) 28. Bob Griese (Miami Dolphins) (1.069) 27. John Brodie (San Francisco 49ers) (1.071) 26. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) (1.086) 25. Fran Tarkenton (Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants) (1.157) 24. Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.186) 23. Sonny Jurgensen (Washington Redskins) (1.219) 22. Rich Gannon (Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders) (1.234) 21. Dan Marino (Miami Dolphins) (1.407) 20. Len Dawson (Kansas City Chiefs) (1.451) 19. Randall Cunningham (Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings) (1.457) 18. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) (1.464) 17. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) (1.511) 16. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) (1.523) 15. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.539) 14. Drew Brees (San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints) (1.777) 13. Brett Favre (Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings) (1.795) 12. Jim Kelly (Buffalo Bills) (1.841) 11. Kurt Warner (St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals) (1.873) 10. John Elway (Denver Broncos) (1.957) Tier 1: Legend (2 or more wins above the average starter a season) 9. Ken Stabler (Oakland Raiders, Houston Oilers and New Orleans Saints) (2.174) 8. Steve Young (Tampa Bay Bucs and San Francisco 49ers) (2.198) 7. Roger Staubach (Dallas Cowboys) (2.224) 6. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) (2.248) 5. Danny White (Dallas Cowboys) (2.284) 4. Joe Montana (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (2.441) 3. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos) (3.065) 2. Daryle Lamonica (Oakland Raiders) (3.365) 1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) (3.532)
  9. RazorStar

    8values

    Vin is the white bread of opinions.
  10. RazorStar

    TGP Pick 'Em Week 1

    Packers @ Bears (TNF) Rams @ Panthers Titans @ Browns Chiefs @ Jags Ravens @ Dolphins Falcons @ Vikings Bills @ Jets Redskins @ Eagles Colts @ Chargers Bengals @ Seahawks Lions @ Cards Giants @ Cowboys 49ers @ Bucs Steelers @ Pats (SNF) Texans @ Saints (MNF Game 1) Broncos @ Raiders (MNF Game 2) Tiebreaker (total points for MNF Game 2): 80
  11. RazorStar

    NFL Distribution Maps (Week 1)

    Bengals / Seahawks Rams / Panthers Mets/Yankees
  12. RazorStar

    Super Bowl LIV Picks

    Mahomes is going to have the Marino career where he never gets a fair shake at the big game because of the team around him. Eh let's go with something unexpected. >
  13. RazorStar

    I could use some advice.

    From what I hear, Missionary is the best position to get some kids.
  14. RazorStar

    Happy Birthday Razor.

    oh right... I'm older today. fuck.
  15. RazorStar

    I could use some advice.

    Your mental health is the best thing you can offer to a lot of these places. If you have better offers on the table, you should take them. From the sounds of it, this family is really nice, but they don't know what they're doing and seem like a serious risk to go under in a few months. The Restuarant business is a harsh mistress and even if they are offering you a lot, if you aren't enjoying the work you're only killing yourself in the long run. Obviously don't dump it in the trash right away, and see how that insurance adjuster interview works out for you. Some people are just douchier on text than they are in real life, but obviously you'll need to trust your judgment in that regard. Then from there I'd just go down the list of other employment opportunities you've got, from the ones you're interested in the most, to the least. The work you're doing right now sounds like a disaster though, and I'd try to get out once you have something stable lined up.
  16. RazorStar

    Trump Regime thread.

    Gabbard has the charisma of a pet rock, of course she didn't make it. Doesn't matter how sound your policies are if people don't like you.
  17. RazorStar

    Gun Control Poll

    I think the idea is you want to make it as difficult as possible for mass shootings to happen. Background checks are a must, and any seller that doesn't do it properly has just as much blood on their hands as the mass shooter. if you restrict the ammunition a private citizen is allowed to have at one time, you're less likely to have mass shootings. I'm not entirely sure how Red flag laws would work in practice, but it seems pretty dangerous to have family members apply for a situation like that, especially in abusive households. The major reason why shootings are so common in america is a matter of ease. If they aren't going to use a gun, they might use a bomb, or a knife, but those things are either easier to track, or easier to stop, or harder to execute. And that's really what it comes down to. Reduce the problem one step at a time, rather than imagine you'll solve everything at once. As for other major factors, everyone is 'mentally ill', that's not really an excuse in this day and age. You can easily claim that shit after the fact, so why does it matter. Violent media and bloodsport have existed forever, and restricting that by any degree will create blowback that creates a greater problem than the one you're trying to fix. America could try and fix the symptoms, or just wait till the cancer does it's job and kills the country properly.
  18. RazorStar

    2020 Democratic Primary Race

    After all, JD is rather violent. 😛
  19. RazorStar

    2020 Democratic Primary Race

    Oh, you're trolling again, gotcha.
  20. RazorStar

    2020 Democratic Primary Race

    France. You mean the country that guillotine'd their way to democracy? Bitch tell me when america gets as hardcore as that.
  21. RazorStar

    Play GM

    Ideally you try and bring him on longer term, but if he still wants a 2+2 after the 6th season, then you've effectively kept him on an extra two years. And it's important to note that having a Mahomes is far better than the alternative.
  22. RazorStar

    Play GM

    then the clear solution is to let him play out his 5th year, franchise tag him for the 6th, and then see if he still wants to do a 2+2 deal.
  23. RazorStar

    Play GM

    Start negotiations, make him the highest paid player in history if you have to, but secure him as long term as humanly possible. Otherwise trade him to Denver for peanuts, that seems like a good plan.
  24. MVP: Joe Flacco, because only QB's can win this award. Realistically, it'd be Von Miller going ham, or Philip Lindsay going for 2000 yards in a weak year for QB's. OPOTY: Philip Lindsay, because he should be the focal point of our offense. DPOTY: Von Miller, because he's a god damn beast. Comeback Player: Joe Flacco, coming back from being benched I guess. OROTY: Noah Fant, but every time i pick a TE to win it they die so... fuck, sorry Noah. DROTY: Justin Hollins? it probably won't happen.
  25. RazorStar

    2020 Democratic Primary Race

    I think it's far less likely, but we're talking about 1 percent to zero here.
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