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RazorStar

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Everything posted by RazorStar

  1. RazorStar

    TGP March Madness

    Practically all chalk bracket is in.
  2. With the 78th pick, the Denver Broncos select: Justin Layne, CB, Michigan State
  3. RazorStar

    The Superhero Thread

    I am the law.
  4. Well that makes this easy. With the 71st pick in the 2019 NFL draft the Denver Broncos select Clayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern
  5. RazorStar

    Historical QB Rankings

    66. Bert Jones (Baltimore Colts 1973-1981, Los Angeles Rams 1982) 2nd Place Colts QB Career Record 46-50-0 (47.92%) 75th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 31-10-0 (75.61%) 58th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 15-40-0 (27.27%) 54th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense (42.71%) 84th out of 102 (+18) Wins above Average in a 16 Game Season (0.218) It's time for another blast from the past, and we're looking at the guy who had to succeed Johnny Unitas today. Bert was a first round pick for the Colts in 1973, just three years removed from their super bowl victory over the Dallas Cowboys. No longer the top dogs in their division, they had to compete with the fierce Dolphins and their stifling defense and the Buffalo Bills' powerful rushing attack headed by OJ Simpson. He took his lumps in his first two seasons, going 2-11 in 13 starts before really taking the reins of the AFC East in 1975, leading the Colts to three straight 10 win seasons, putting up incredible passing numbers for the Dead Ball Era and even winning the MVP award in 1976. Each postseason appearance was met by a one and done, as the Steelers took him out of the game in his first appearance, then picked him off twice and put up 40 points in their second appearance. In his third, he was stuck in a tight overtime matchup with the Oakland Raiders, but came up short as the Raiders closed the game out in the classic Ghost to the Post game. Things were set to be looking up for the Colts... but Jones got his shoulder shredded in 1978, and never was the same guy, missing most of the 78 and 79 season due to injuries. He wasn't the same guy in the 80's, his injuries had slowed him down, he threw a lot more interceptions, and he got sacked a lot more. He went 8-22 in his last 30 games with the Colts, and ended his career as a Ram, playing 4 games before finally hanging up the cleats due to a neck injury. Bert Jones is a famous what if story in the league, and Bill Belichick gives him a lot of credit as one of the best pure passers he's ever seen. Jones had a very short prime in the league, but he was dynamic despite all of the adversity he dealt with in his career. His defenses rank in the bottom 20 for all of the guys in this study, and he still managed to nearly pull off a .500 record. He was only one of three QB's in the 70's to throw for a 100+ passer rating, and the other two guys will be making appearances on this list later, don't worry. He may not have taken the Colts to a championship like his predecessor, but considering the Colts various attempts to find that glory, he was a very good successor to Unitas' legacy.
  6. RazorStar

    Historical QB Rankings

    Hey everyone, it's been a long time coming, but I'm finally ready to put up the results of what I've been working on over the season. I wanted to find a way to adjust a QB's play for what his defense does, and see how often a guy can overcome a bad performance from his defense, or likewise, fail to win even when the defense has a stellar game. In order to do that I needed a whole lot of data. Every single game a QB started or played most of the game (including postseason), the average amount of points a defense allowed in each year, and how often a QB won in those situations. So doing a lot of number crunching, and by examining the years in the Super Bowl Era, I came up with a list of 102 QB's, sorted by 4 separate eras marked by important rule changes or historical reasons. To qualify for this list, a QB must have had 90 starts (including postseason), or 80 starts in the dead ball era (14 game seasons meant I needed a little leeway). Starts in this case are games where the QB played most of or all of the game. (Tom Brady doesn't get credit for starting the game where Bernard Pollard broke his leg, for example). By having the data for all of the eras, you can find the expected win percentage of a QB in games where their defense played well, and the expected win percentage when their defense played poorly. This list is sorted by the player with the most wins above replacement in a 16 game season, to the player with the least. With all of that in mind, let's go ahead and start this list. Current List: Tier 7: Garbage (2 or more wins below the average starter a season) 102. Archie Manning (New Orleans Saints) (-2.886) Tier 6: Career Backup (1-2 wins below the average starter a season) 101. Chris Miller (Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams) (-1.335) 100. Jeff George (Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders) (-1.162) 99. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets, Bucs) (-1.123) 98. Steve DeBerg (San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Bucs and Kansas City Chiefs) (-1.055) 97. Norm Snead (Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants) (-1.028) Tier 5: Journeyman (0.5-1 wins below the average starter a season) 96. Jon Kitna (Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions) (-0.865) 95. Ron Jaworski (Philadelphia Eagles) (-0.841) 94. Vinny Testaverde (Tampa Bay Bucs, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets) (-0.807) 93. Jim Harbaugh (Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, and San Diego Chargers) (-0.790) 92. Ken O'Brien (New York Jets) (-0.743) 91. Kerry Collins (Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans) (-0.713) 90. Jim Everett (Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints) (-0.602) 89. Greg Landry (Detroit Lions) (-0.586) 88. Lynn Dickey (Green Bay Packers) (-0.533) 87. Steve Beuerlein (Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers) (-0.530) 86. Joe Ferguson (Buffalo Bills) (-0.507) Tier 4: Average (0.5 wins above to 0.5 wins below the average starter a season) 85. Aaron Brooks (New Orleans Saints) (-0.414) 84. Steve Bartkowski (Atlanta Falcons) (-0.413) 83. Daunte Culpepper (Minnesota Vikings) (-0.282) 82. Doug Williams (Washington Redskins) (-0.270) 81. Trent Dilfer (Tampa Bay Bucs and Baltimore Ravens) (-0.261) 80. Drew Bledsoe (New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys) (-0.253) 79. Richard Todd (New York Jets) (-0.249) 78. Jim Zorn (Seattle Seahawks) (-0.211) 77. Chris Chandler (Arizona Cardinals, Houston Oilers and Atlanta Falcons) (-0.117) 76. Jeff Blake (Cincinnati Bengals) (-0.110) 75. Jake Plummer (Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos) (-0.025) 74. Bernie Kosar (Cleveland Browns) (0.000) 73. Dan Pastorini (Houston Oilers) (0.051) 72. Jeff Garcia (San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.075) 71. Warren Moon (Houston Oilers, Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.081) 70. Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.091) 69. Brian Sipe (Cleveland Browns) (0.115) 68. Ken Anderson (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.147) 67. Tier 3: Good (0.5-1 wins above the average starter a season) Tier 2: Franchise QB (1-2 wins above the average starter a season) Tier 1: Legend (2 or more wins above the average starter a season)
  7. RazorStar

    Historical QB Rankings

    Ok let's do an actual writeup for Jay Cutler because there are a few things I'd like to note about him. First of all, those numbers are just straight up nice. .500 winning record, exactly 75 games with a good defense and 75 games with a bad defense. The reason why being straight down the middle like this is simply because the divide for average points can't be set on a non-whole number, so the average QB actually only wins 49% of their games when their defenses are perfectly even, at least in the Golden Age of Passing. but yeah, all in all, Cutler ends up being basically what the baseline is for the average QB in my study and it's pretty sweet. Cutler started out his career being the guy expected to take Mike Shanahan's team over the top, since Jake Plummer failed in the role in 2005. Problem was, the Broncos may have been too quick to act, dumping Plummer the second they lost two games in a row. Cutler became the starter in the last 5 games of 2006, and carried the role for a few seasons, but could never get the Broncos over .500 so they fired Shanahan. Josh McDaniels wanted nothing to do with the 4th year QB so he jettisoned him to Chicago, and his star receiver to Miami. Cutler took the Bears to the postseason in his second season in Chicago, and took them to the AFC championship game, but suffered an unfortunate injury and the Bears could not overcome his loss and fell to the eventual SB champion Packers. Cutler never got another chance at the postseason with the Bears, suffering an injury in 2011 and having the backups lose 5 of the last 6 games of the season, and in 2012 they missed the postseason on tiebreakers. By that point the rest of the Bears defense crumbled around them and they were stuck in rebuild mode until Cutler decided to retire in 2016. The retirement didn't last long, as Cutler got a call to play for the Dolphins by his former offensive coordinator Adam Gase. He played there for a season, did his usual don't care fare before retiring into the sunset. Or whatever that reality show he's on is called.
  8. The New York Jets select: Mike Weber, RB, The Ohio State University
  9. RazorStar

    2019 TGP Mock Draft (Discussion Thread/Sign-ups)

    Bradbury is a really good pick, I think he'll be a top centre in this league with a few reps.
  10. RazorStar

    Historical QB Rankings

    67. Jay Cutler (Denver Broncos 2006-2008, Chicago Bears 2009-2016, Miami Dolphins 2017) 4th Place Broncos QB and 2nd Place Bears QB Career Record 75-75-0 (50.00%) 65th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 57-18-0 (76.00%) 56th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 18-57-0 (24.00%) 74th (T) out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense (50.00%) 64th (T) out of 102 (-3) Wins above Average in a 16 Game Season (0.165) I don't care to do a writeup.
  11. With the 41st pick the Denver Broncos select: Zach Allen, DE, Boston College The Broncos need to rebuild their identity and it starts in the trenches.
  12. RazorStar

    2019 TGP Mock Draft (Discussion Thread/Sign-ups)

    I feel like the trade worked well for both of us. I valued Taylor pretty highly but figured I could wait a little bit longer before pulling the trigger. And getting Nick Bosa for the Jets feels like a huge steal.
  13. RazorStar

    Historical QB Rankings

    68. Ken Anderson (Cincinnati Bengals 1971-1986) 4th Place Bengals Quarterback Career Record 91-81-0 (52.91%) 49th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 72-21-0 (77.42%) 48th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 19-60-0 (24.05%) 73rd out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 93/172 (54.07%) 39th out of 102 (-29) Wins Above Average in a 16 Game Season (0.147) All hail the 70's Porn Stache man. Ken Anderson had a long and illustrious career with the Bengals, and is often on the cusp of several hall of fame discussions because of the numbers he put up in the early 80's, and his role in turning the West Coast Offense to a offensive mainstay in the league for a long time. Because you see, Bill Walsh's offense didn't originate with Joe Montana and Dwight Clark, no the roots of his offensive gameplan were planted in Ohio. As a student of the game, he developed the WCO to work around a QB who didn't have a big arm in Virgil Carter, but Ken Anderson was the guy who really took his philosophies to the fore. Anderson led the league in completion percentage in 4 of his seasons, including 1982 where he held the league record for nearly 30 years with a 70.6% completion (since broken 4 times by Drew Brees, and once by Sam Bradford of all people). You would think a player with a resume like that would be a lot higher, however for all the ups in Anderson's career, there were a fair share of downs to even it out. While Anderson found success early in his career as a beneficiary of Walsh's offensive scheme, with Paul Brown retiring and Walsh leaving, (instead of just inheriting the job from Brown because of a petty feud) Anderson struggled under different offensive coordinators, and was finding the ball in the hands of opposing players more often than not. It wasn't until 1981 where Anderson got the rails back on track and returned to the promise he showed so early in his career. A fun fact is that he was almost benched for the season, because he got pulled in week 1 after throwing a couple picks, and his replacement Turk Schonert stormed back and won the game. Forrest Gregg decided to stick with Anderson, and he never looked back, leading the Bengals to a 12-4 record, an AFC Central title, and a super bowl appearance... against his former offensive coordinator Bill Walsh. The Bengals offense stalled early, and couldn't overcome a 20 point halftime deficit against the new dynasty 49ers. Anderson had his record setting completion percentage year in 1982, but the Bengals were bounced early after being drubbed by the Jets, and Anderson struggled for the next two years before being replaced by Boomer Esiason in 1985. Anderson is a fascination QB from a historical point of view, combining the cerebral vision and scrambling ability evident in so many of the great WCO QB's to ever play the game. He really serves as the blueprint for what you would look for in a Quarterback back in the days when the WCO was the new hotness. Some of those traits are still evident in today's spread game, but a quarterback who can operate with the entire width of the field is always an asset for teams. As for his placement on this list, Anderson's high certainly net him a lot of points, but he had some drastic lows as well. A career of peaks and valleys will put you near the middle of the pack, and that's unfortunately where Anderson ends up. He had a lot of games with strong scoring defenses as well which can be a hindrance on these rankings if you aren't winning consistently because of them. His win rates with good and bad defenses skewed pretty much towards the average starter, or just a little bit better than, so he doesn't end up in the same stratosphere as a lot of guys in the hall of fame who crowd the top of the list. All in all, a talented player, a fascinating discussion point, and a very slightly above average winner.
  14. RazorStar

    '18-'19 NBA Season Thread

    I thought the LeLakers would sneak in as the 8th seed, but you know this is the first time in LeBron's career he's actually had more than one or two teams as competition in his conference.
  15. RazorStar

    2019 TGP Mock Draft (Discussion Thread/Sign-ups)

    Yeah, I'm a big fan of the Dillard pick, that's for sure. If Jawaan wasn't waiting for me at 13 (I had a feeling he would be though), I probably would have taken Dillard myself.
  16. RazorStar

    Historical QB Rankings

    Memebers of the Hydra don't count. (I generally like having a guy play a full 16 games for a team before considering him as a QB on that team)
  17. RazorStar

    Historical QB Rankings

    69. Brian Sipe (Cleveland Browns 1974-1983) 1st Place Browns Quarterback Career Record 57-54-0 (51.35%) 59th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 39-19-0 (67.24%) 91st out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 18-35-0 (33.96%) 23rd out of 102 Percentages of Games with Good Defense 58/111 (52.25%) 49th out of 102 (-20) Wins Above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (0.115) And just like that, the Browns are out of representatives on this list. The woes of having a team with all of their success pre super bowl era. Brian Sipe's career started off on a very bumpy road. As a 12th round pick in 1974, Sipe wasn't expected to do much with the role, but found time as a reliever in his first couple of seasons, but neither he nor the team was very good at the time. He was better than his contemporaries, but Sipe struggled to outscore opposing offenses early on, and didn't really start getting the knack of things until 1977 where he developed a reputation as a comeback artist. He was very interception prone, but so many of the QB's in the 70's were, it's not surprising. The end of the dead ball era changed things for Sipe, as he started to really develop his tools as a passer, and even won an MVP award in 1980 for his role as the leader of the Kardiac Kids. However, a team on the verge of a heart attack will eventually die, and Sipe's lone playoff appearance was ended by an untimely pick, only known in Browns lore as Red Right 88. The Browns never got another chance with Sipe, his game breaking heroics could only do so much when those same traits were the reason why they ended up down in the first place. Eventually, at the end of the 83 season, Sipe was benched for McDonald, and never returned to the NFL. He bounced around the USFL for a couple of seasons before leaving football forever. Sipe was something of a 4th Quarter QB, perhaps the progenitor of the legacy continued by guys like John Elway and Eli Manning. Someone who was rough in the first three quarters, but got his act together for the 4th and made amazing plays seem routine. However sometime Sipe dug the hole too deep, or he couldn't get the heroics to work at the right time, which is why he was so awful when his defense actually did their jobs every now and again. The Browns may not have had great defenses in his time, but they were average, and you'd expect to win a few more games than Sipe did. The counterpoint is that he was in the top quarter when his defense gave up more than an average amount of points, and that's why he balances out as a hair above average. The Sipe giveth, and the Sipe taketh away. That means no more Browns for the rest of the list!
  18. RazorStar

    Historical QB Rankings

    70. Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers 2005-2012, Kansas City Chiefs 2013-2017, Washington Redskins 2018-Current?) 5th Place 49ers QB and 6th Place Chiefs QB Career Record 90-67-0 (57.32%) 36th out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 79-23-0 (77.45%) 47th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 11-44-0 (20.00%) 92nd out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 102/157 (64.97%) 9th out of 102 (-61) Wins Above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (0.091) (0.042 with 2018 in the books) Alex Smith. The saviour that never was. Few QB's have had the maligned start Alex Smith was subject to. He and Rodgers were the top two guys in their class, and the general consensus was that Aaron Rodgers was the correct choice to go first overall, but first year head coach, and OC Mike McCarthy liked Alex Smith a little bit more, and they took a chance on the small school guy who was a little bit more raw. Well, I can't say it worked well for Nolan, but Mike McCarthy got to win a super bowl with the other QB in this draft class, so onions to that. Smith spent his first few seasons battling injuries, having difficulty reading defenses, and throwing a lot of misinformed picks, leading to the 49ers being a revolving door at the position for the 00's. Trent Dilfer, Troy Smith, Shaun Hill, JT O'Sullivan and I swear there was someone else I'm failing to remember all took starting time when Smith was there. However, things changed for Smith once he got an offensive minded head coach. Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary couldn't get anything out of Smith, but Harbaugh could. Smith may take the definition of game manager, but his mobility in the pocket was utilized properly by Harbaugh, and conservatism combined with a smothering defense put the 49ers in the conference championship in 2011, only falling short in overtime thanks to a Kyle Williams muffed punt. Things were looking up for Smith in 2012 as they retained their stars and got even better... but he got concussed in the middle of the season, and his job was taken by the phenom Colin Kaepernick. Smith hadn't quite shed his bust label despite one and a half successful, efficient seasons under Harbaugh, so no one really batted an eye when Kaepernick took over, and drove the 49ers to a Super Bowl, falling just short to Ray Lewis' retirement tour. Smith was done in San Fran after that, as Kaep was supposed to be their QB of the future, and Smith went to Kansas City to thrive under new head coach Andy Reid. He put up 5 winning seasons with the Chiefs, undoing pretty much all of the bad juju of his first 6 seasons in San Fran, but once again found himself replaced by a new young gun who looks like he's going to take over the league. Despite making the playoffs 4 times, Smith was only able to win one game for them. He might have been subject to two of the worst defensive collapses in post season history, and two losses suffered under Andy Reid clock management.txt but no one remembers that. He went to Washington after his stint in KC, and his Redskins career may have been cut painfully short by the worst injury I've seen since Monica Seles got stabbed on the tennis court. Smith's career is largely defined by the great defenses he's had. Even when his career was just starting out, the 49ers were a very hard nosed team with strong secondaries and linebackers. When Smith was getting it together in the Harbaugh era, the 49ers ranked among the best in the league on Defense. When he went to the Chiefs, they played astoundingly well, with great pass rushers, a strong front 7, and an incredibly safety in the back end. Smith's defenses are so good that he ranks among the top 10 on this list, which makes him a pretty big underachiever when you think about it. But this list takes the entire scope of his career into account, and his first six years were incredibly weak. Smith's career probably ranks as a tragedy, considering the amount of misfortune he's suffered, but despite all that has happened to him, he has a solid career and one to be proud of.
  19. The Denver Broncos select: Jawaan Taylor, LT, Florida
  20. Oh, my choice for who you get in Free agency is... nobody. Just grab a dude. Not a good dude, just a dude. Geno Smith, David Fales, whatever can walk, breath, and can sign for nearly the vet minimum. and my honest feeling is that the Cardinals don't actually want Kyler Murray. This is all setting landmines, making people hype about nothing so that they can agitate the trade market a bit. The Cards need help everywhere, and I think it's way more likely they sit on Rosen for at least another season before pulling the plug, even if I personally think he won't amount to much.
  21. RazorStar

    2019 TGP Mock Draft (Discussion Thread/Sign-ups)

    A trade has been announced: Broncos Receive 13 and 78 Dolphins Receive 10 and 148
  22. RazorStar

    Historical QB Rankings

    71. Warren Moon (Houston Oilers 1984-1993, Minnesota Vikings 1994-1996, Seattle Seahawks 1997-1998, Kansas City Chiefs 1999-2000) 3rd Place Oilers QB and 7th Place Vikings QB and 4th Place Seahawks QB Career Record 105-105-0 (50.00%) 65th (T) out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 80-28-0 (74.07%) 64th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 25-77-0 (24.51%) 70th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 108/210 (51.43%) 54th out of 102 (-17) Wins Above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (0.081) Huh? What the fuck Razor? Warren Moon this low? I demand a redo, your list is busted, everything is wrong! This is one of the spots that requires a bit of explanation, so let me try my best, because Warren Moon definitely had an interesting career. Like Garcia before him, he wasn't deemed the right fit for the NFL coming out of college, and found the CFL and Edmonton Eskimos calling his name. This wasn't because he was too small, like Garcia and Doug Flutie were thought to be, no this was just the league not wanting to take a chance on Black quarterbacks in the 70's. So he spent 6 years in the CFL, winning 5 Grey Cups in his first 5 seasons, and the Most Outstanding Player award in his 6th. After that ludicrous success, the NFL came knocking as his former head coach in the CFL though 'damn this guy is really good, let's get him in Houston'. And so Moon's legacy begun. However, the NFL is a different beast, and Moon struggled to pull of victories in his first three seasons. His personal numbers were spectacular, but his defenses were often giving up 27+ points a game, so he started his career 12-33. He flashed potential, but it wasn't until Jerry Glanville got a hold of him in 1986 that he was able to utilize Moon's skillset to it's greatest potential. They started having winning seasons in 1987, Moon started compiling his passing records, and they spent the next 6 years as postseason mainstays who could never get over the hump. Whether it was due to the greatest comeback of all time, rifts between coaches and players, defensive collapses, or offensive collapses, something always went wrong in the postseason. At the end of the 93 season, the Oilers decided to part ways with their franchise QB at age 37. He went to the Vikings where he played decently for a couple of seasons before getting hurt and benched for Brad Johnson. Deciding not to take a paycut to be his backup, he found his way to Seattle for two seasons, before spending the twilight of his long career as a backup in Kansas City. Moon's story is a lot of what ifs. If you were just to take his 7 year prime in the NFL between 1987-1993, Moon would shake up among the top 20 in this list, I have no doubt. However, Moon didn't get his first foray into the NFL until he was 28, and he didn't get his first winning season in the league until he was 31. Most quarterbacks have a lot more success earlier in their careers than that, but Moon basically did all of his work in his 30's and a little bit in his early 40's as well. Of course, that doesn't count him dominating the CFL, because of course a guy with an arm like that dominated the CFL. He started 210 games, which is 10th most on my list, and the only players ahead of him are hall of famers, future hall of famers, and Vinny Testaverde. The argument could be that he played for too long, and that's why he ended up being just a hair above average on this list, why his career record is .500, and why his defenses were just a shade above average. Nonetheless, Moon had a very fruitful career, but this list took the whole scope of it, not just his incredible prime. You'll find that there are some players on this list who only played in their primes who got to stay a lot higher than Moon did.
  23. RazorStar

    Trump Regime thread.

    Public Assassination?
  24. RazorStar

    Last Poster Wins!

    You are on thin ice my pedigree chum, and I will be beneath it when it breaks. So fuck off!
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