What are the odds your team makes the playoffs?

[RazorStar 4,025]

Interesting stuff here at this website. Basically they run a shit ton of simulation for each season, and get the percentages by calculating the results of those simulations. Using the Bill James "Pythagorean Theorem" and the flip a coin of method, they have two different sets of odds for the playoffs. I'm just posting the "smart" method they have.

 

AFC:

Houston: 98.0% Division Win, 2.0% Wild Card berth, 100% chance of Playoffs

New England 100% Division

Denver 100% Division

Baltimore 83.5% Division Win, 13.5% Wild Card berth, 99.0% chance of playoffs

Indianapolis 2.0% Division Win, 75.0% Wild Card, 77.0% chance of playoffs

Pittsburgh 10.3% Division Win, 60.8% Wild Card, 71.2% chance of playoffs

Cincinnati 6.2% Division Win, 40.2% Wild Card, 48.4% chance of playoffs

New York Jets 2.7% Chance of Wild Card

Buffalo 2.4% Chance of Wild Card

Miami 0.9% Chance of Wild Card

San Diego 0.4% chance of Wild Card

Cleveland 0.1% chance of Wild Card

Tennessee 0.1% chance of Wild Card

 

NFC

Atlanta 100% Division

San Fran 84.3 Div, 14.3 WC, 98.6 playoffs

Chicago 48.2 Div, 42.7 WC, 90.7 playoffs

Green Bay 50.4 Div, 36.8 WC, 87.1 playoffs

Seattle 15.6 Div, 63.0 WC, 78.6 playoffs

New York Giants 52.1 Div, 15.8 WC, 67.9 playoffs

Washington 28.6 Div, 7.2 WC, 35.8 playoffs

Dallas 19.3 Div, 2.2 WC, 21.5 playoffs

Tampa Bay 7.9% Wild Card

Minnesota 1.4 Div, 5.4 WC, 6.8 playoffs

St. Louis 0.1 Div, 2.7 WC, 2.8 playoffs

New Orleans 2.0% Wild Card

Detroit and Arizona,

Philadelphia

 

http://www.coolstandings.com/football/football_standings.asp?col=&sort=&run=719&sim=s&sn=2012&v=d

Edited December 4, 2012 by RazorStar

[oochymp 2,393]

Tennessee 0.1% chance of Wild Card

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

[ramsftw3 1]

Interesting stuff here at this website. Basically they run a shit ton of simulation for each season, and get the percentages by calculating the results of those simulations. Using the Bill James "Pythagorean Theorem" and the flip a coin of method, they have two different sets of odds for the playoffs. I'm just posting the "smart" method they have.

 

AFC:

Houston: 98.0% Division Win, 2.0% Wild Card berth, 100% chance of Playoffs

New England 100% Division

Denver 100% Division

Baltimore 83.5% Division Win, 13.5% Wild Card berth, 99.0% chance of playoffs

Indianapolis 2.0% Division Win, 75.0% Wild Card, 77.0% chance of playoffs

Pittsburgh 10.3% Division Win, 60.8% Wild Card, 71.2% chance of playoffs

Cincinnati 6.2% Division Win, 40.2% Wild Card, 48.4% chance of playoffs

New York Jets 2.7% Chance of Wild Card

Buffalo 2.4% Chance of Wild Card

Miami 0.9% Chance of Wild Card

San Diego 0.4% chance of Wild Card

Cleveland 0.1% chance of Wild Card

Tennessee 0.1% chance of Wild Card

 

NFC

Atlanta 100% Division

San Fran 84.3 Div, 14.3 WC, 98.6 playoffs

Chicago 48.2 Div, 42.7 WC, 90.7 playoffs

Green Bay 50.4 Div, 36.8 WC, 87.1 playoffs

Seattle 15.6 Div, 63.0 WC, 78.6 playoffs

New York Giants 52.1 Div, 15.8 WC, 67.9 playoffs

Washington 28.6 Div, 7.2 WC, 35.8 playoffs

Dallas 19.3 Div, 2.2 WC, 21.5 playoffs

Tampa Bay 7.9% Wild Card

Minnesota 1.4 Div, 5.4 WC, 6.8 playoffs

St. Louis 0.1 Div, 2.7 WC, 2.8 playoffs

New Orleans 2.0% Wild Card

Detroit and Arizona, <0.1% Wild Card

Philadelphia <0.1% Division

 

http://www.coolstandings.com/football/football_standings.asp?col=&sort=&run=719&sim=s&sn=2012&v=d

 

We have the best divisional record after beating the 49ers for the second time in three years and successfully sweeping the Cardinals. Beating the Seahawks in Centurylink Field with Russel Wilson being healthy will be tough, and I expect that Marshawn Lynch will run all over us. A side from all of this, our next thre opponents before we play the Seahawks are the Bills (5-7), the Vikings (6-6) and the Buccaneers (6-6) who are definitely beatable. Steven Jackson will finally break loose against the Bills, Sam Bradford will tear up the Buccaneers horrid pass defense and the game against the Vikings will really be 'Steven Jackson versus Adrian Peterson' not 'Christian Ponder versus Sam Bradford' actually. Do I think that we still have a blind chance at a wild card spot knowing that we have the tiebreaker over every team and that we're less than two games back with an easy schedule including the fact that the we play the team with the current sixth seed in the final week? Yes, I think that we have a good chance at silently making it in.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Rams ain't making the playoffs, sorry breh.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

hm.... So we still have a chance...

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Why did that post of mine get so many props?