RazorStar 4,025 Posted December 4, 2012 (edited) Interesting stuff here at this website. Basically they run a shit ton of simulation for each season, and get the percentages by calculating the results of those simulations. Using the Bill James "Pythagorean Theorem" and the flip a coin of method, they have two different sets of odds for the playoffs. I'm just posting the "smart" method they have. AFC: Houston: 98.0% Division Win, 2.0% Wild Card berth, 100% chance of Playoffs New England 100% Division Denver 100% Division Baltimore 83.5% Division Win, 13.5% Wild Card berth, 99.0% chance of playoffs Indianapolis 2.0% Division Win, 75.0% Wild Card, 77.0% chance of playoffs Pittsburgh 10.3% Division Win, 60.8% Wild Card, 71.2% chance of playoffs Cincinnati 6.2% Division Win, 40.2% Wild Card, 48.4% chance of playoffs New York Jets 2.7% Chance of Wild Card Buffalo 2.4% Chance of Wild Card Miami 0.9% Chance of Wild Card San Diego 0.4% chance of Wild Card Cleveland 0.1% chance of Wild Card Tennessee 0.1% chance of Wild Card NFC Atlanta 100% Division San Fran 84.3 Div, 14.3 WC, 98.6 playoffs Chicago 48.2 Div, 42.7 WC, 90.7 playoffs Green Bay 50.4 Div, 36.8 WC, 87.1 playoffs Seattle 15.6 Div, 63.0 WC, 78.6 playoffs New York Giants 52.1 Div, 15.8 WC, 67.9 playoffs Washington 28.6 Div, 7.2 WC, 35.8 playoffs Dallas 19.3 Div, 2.2 WC, 21.5 playoffs Tampa Bay 7.9% Wild Card Minnesota 1.4 Div, 5.4 WC, 6.8 playoffs St. Louis 0.1 Div, 2.7 WC, 2.8 playoffs New Orleans 2.0% Wild Card Detroit and Arizona, Philadelphia http://www.coolstandings.com/football/football_standings.asp?col=&sort=&run=719&sim=s&sn=2012&v=d Edited December 4, 2012 by RazorStar Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oochymp 2,393 Posted December 4, 2012 Tennessee 0.1% chance of Wild Card 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted December 4, 2012 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ramsftw3 1 Posted December 4, 2012 Interesting stuff here at this website. Basically they run a shit ton of simulation for each season, and get the percentages by calculating the results of those simulations. Using the Bill James "Pythagorean Theorem" and the flip a coin of method, they have two different sets of odds for the playoffs. I'm just posting the "smart" method they have. AFC: Houston: 98.0% Division Win, 2.0% Wild Card berth, 100% chance of Playoffs New England 100% Division Denver 100% Division Baltimore 83.5% Division Win, 13.5% Wild Card berth, 99.0% chance of playoffs Indianapolis 2.0% Division Win, 75.0% Wild Card, 77.0% chance of playoffs Pittsburgh 10.3% Division Win, 60.8% Wild Card, 71.2% chance of playoffs Cincinnati 6.2% Division Win, 40.2% Wild Card, 48.4% chance of playoffs New York Jets 2.7% Chance of Wild Card Buffalo 2.4% Chance of Wild Card Miami 0.9% Chance of Wild Card San Diego 0.4% chance of Wild Card Cleveland 0.1% chance of Wild Card Tennessee 0.1% chance of Wild Card NFC Atlanta 100% Division San Fran 84.3 Div, 14.3 WC, 98.6 playoffs Chicago 48.2 Div, 42.7 WC, 90.7 playoffs Green Bay 50.4 Div, 36.8 WC, 87.1 playoffs Seattle 15.6 Div, 63.0 WC, 78.6 playoffs New York Giants 52.1 Div, 15.8 WC, 67.9 playoffs Washington 28.6 Div, 7.2 WC, 35.8 playoffs Dallas 19.3 Div, 2.2 WC, 21.5 playoffs Tampa Bay 7.9% Wild Card Minnesota 1.4 Div, 5.4 WC, 6.8 playoffs St. Louis 0.1 Div, 2.7 WC, 2.8 playoffs New Orleans 2.0% Wild Card Detroit and Arizona, <0.1% Wild Card Philadelphia <0.1% Division http://www.coolstandings.com/football/football_standings.asp?col=&sort=&run=719&sim=s&sn=2012&v=d We have the best divisional record after beating the 49ers for the second time in three years and successfully sweeping the Cardinals. Beating the Seahawks in Centurylink Field with Russel Wilson being healthy will be tough, and I expect that Marshawn Lynch will run all over us. A side from all of this, our next thre opponents before we play the Seahawks are the Bills (5-7), the Vikings (6-6) and the Buccaneers (6-6) who are definitely beatable. Steven Jackson will finally break loose against the Bills, Sam Bradford will tear up the Buccaneers horrid pass defense and the game against the Vikings will really be 'Steven Jackson versus Adrian Peterson' not 'Christian Ponder versus Sam Bradford' actually. Do I think that we still have a blind chance at a wild card spot knowing that we have the tiebreaker over every team and that we're less than two games back with an easy schedule including the fact that the we play the team with the current sixth seed in the final week? Yes, I think that we have a good chance at silently making it in. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted December 5, 2012 Rams ain't making the playoffs, sorry breh. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241 Posted December 6, 2012 hm.... So we still have a chance... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted December 7, 2012 Why did that post of mine get so many props? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites