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oochymp

Luckiest and Unluckiest teams in the NFL

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If Texans were lucky they would have won that OT against Dallas and also won that close one against the Colts.

Luck to me is overall, not just half a season - for example, Indianapolis Colts had Peyton Manning and then sucked for just one season, and look who was available to them in the draft. They will have the services of an elite QB for 25 years while some teams have never had one.

I guess you could say Texans got lucky with Watt, but 10 other teams bypassed him.

Yep, sour grapes.

 

He did say that the Texans have been both the recipients of being lucky and being unlucky, just more lucky then the opposite...

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Luckiest team is obviously the Raiders. Getting such good play out of your rookie class, and still heading towards the #1 overall pick? Fuhgettabawdit.

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Luckiest team is obviously the Raiders. Getting such good play out of your rookie class, and still heading towards the #1 overall pick? Fuhgettabawdit.

Do you think they take Mariota?

They may sit on Carr another season yet imo.

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so I got curious and ran the numbers for Belichick's Patriots to see if there was any evidence regarding the randomness of close games. I picked the Belichick Patriots for a few reasons, he's been there for a long time, so there's consistency with a large sample size, he's also among the best coaches of the last decade or so and has had one of the best QBs of the past decade or so, meaning that those teams have all of the advantages you could ask for in close games, and I chose to base it on Belichick's time because that's easier than figuring out when Brady was or was not in the game, anyway here is the record by season (including playoffs) in games decided by 7 points or less:

 

2000: 3-7

 

2001: 7-3

 

2002: 3-2

 

2003: 9-1

 

2004: 3-1

 

2005: 5-1

 

2006: 6-3

 

2007: 3-1

 

2008: 3-2

 

2009: 3-4

 

2010: 4-1

 

2011: 5-3

 

2012: 4-4

 

2013: 7-4

 

2014: 2-0

 

 

Total: 67-37

 

that gives those teams wins in 64.4%, they've only been below .500 in close games in two of those 15 seasons, once in a 5-11 season in 2000, and if you throw out that 2000 season, which was Belichick's first season in New England and the only pre-Brady season included (you can throw out 2008 if you want, but at 3-2 that season it's not gonna have much impact) that number jumps up to 68%, either the Patriots have been lucky for the last fifteen years or results in close games aren't actually random

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