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I figured this is where we would be headed. The kid had a bad Pro Day; it happens. If his knee checks out he should still be a lock to go in the first round. He might fall out of the top ten, but he won't fall out of the first entirely, as he has in some mock drafts.

With Pro Days winding down and our calendars turned to April, we're getting close to draft day. Teams are scheduling visits with prospects, and draft stock continues to rise and fall for various players, and draft day grows nearer by the day. Having studied many scouting reports recently, I felt compelled to take this mock all the way through the second round. It gets a little convoluted because I'm not predicting trades (in this mock, anyway), but it's still a fun way to see where players might end up. So here it is, my fourth mock draft of the offseason. The format is the same as usual: draft picks in the image below with numbered explanations below said image. I apologize if this is a little inconvenient or awkward; I complete my mocks in Microsoft Excel so this is the easiest way to transfer it. 1. This pick appears to have come down to a battle of the top quarterback prospects Newton and Blaine Gabbert, with A.J. Green and Marcell Dareus as dark horse candidates. I agree with the new regime, new quarterback line of thinking, and I believe that Carolina will choose Newton over Gabbert for his superior skill set, and because Gabbert has a lot of accuracy issues on his tape. 2. This pick is shaping out to be the easiest to predict in the entire draft. Denver doesn't seem prepared to take a quarterback here; they'll address their biggest need instead with one of the safest picks in the draft. 3. A lot of people are now mocking Von Miller to Buffalo with this pick, but I think Miller's talents would be somewhat wasted in a 4-3 defense. Then again, the Bills could take Miller and convert to the 3-4, or they could misuse his talent because, well, they're the Bills. Still, the silver lining for me is that I think Buffalo comes out of the first round with a quarterback. With Cam Newton off the board, Gabbert's their guy. 4. This pick comes down to arguably the two greatest prospects in this draft: Green and Patrick Peterson. Which will be higher on Cincinnati's board? I don't think it matters, because the Bengals don't strike me as a team that drafts their board; they'll go for need here. Word is that Cincinnati is confident they can re-sign Jonathan Joseph, which means that wide receiver is the bigger need. And we all know how much the Bengals love playmakers. 5. If Patrick Peterson falls to this pick, the Cardinals will have a tough decision to make. Getting a pass rusher is easily their biggest priority, but Peterson and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie would make a great cornerback tandem. This pick could very easily change before draft day, but right now I'll give Miller the edge. 6. I'm giving Cleveland Peterson for a few reasons: I can't stomach seeing the best prospect in the draft fall any farther, and GM Tom Heckert drafts his board. That means that Peterson is the pick over Robert Quinn. Also, it's not like cornerback isn't a need for the Browns. They have nobody next to Joe Haden; add Peterson to a defense that already has T.J. Ward and you have the potential for one of the best secondaries in football. 7. San Francisco needs secondary help something awful, and I could see them swapping picks with Cleveland or Arizona to make sure they get Peterson (if he falls). I think it's more likely, however, that the Niners stay put, because Amukamara seems a lock to fall to them, and if he does, it's a no-brainer. San Fran will look for a quarterback in round two. 8. I've been mocking Fairley to Tennessee for awhile, and now there's some buzz supporting it. Smokescreen? I don't think so. With his red flags, Fairley is a near-lock to fall to the Titans here, and he's too good a player at too big a need to pass up. 9. After some waffling, I've determined that Dallas will use their highest draft pick to address the offensive line. Smith is the physical, athletic type of lineman Jerry Jones likes. Any concerns about his ability to play left tackle are irrelevant because the Cowboys have Doug Free entrenched at left tackle; Smith would replace Marc Colombo at right tackle. Dallas will probably try to trade down a few spots before making this pick. 10. With so many needs, the Redskins need to just draft the best player available here, and that's Quinn. He projects as a rush linebacker in Washington's 3-4 defense. I could see the Skins trading down to acquire picks and then take a quarterback (Mike Shanahan is "reportedly" enamored with Jake Locker), but if they can't move down, I don't see them reaching for one. 11. The Texans would love for Prince Amukamara or Robert Quinn to fall, but since they're both gone, Houston must look elsewhere. Aldon Smith is a raw prospect with enormous potential and has drawn comparisons to DeMarcus Ware. Wade Phillips was hired as Houston's defensive coordinator this offseason. There's a pattern in there somewhere. 12. I can see Minnesota addressing their offensive line with Anthony Castonzo here, but I think Cameron Jordan is a highly underrated prospect who would be too good to pass up for Minnesota in this case. In the Vikings' 4-3 defense, Jordan would play defensive end, but has the size and the versatility to kick inside in nickel passages. 13. The Lions seem deadset on addressing the offensive line and protecting Matt Stafford, right? Wrong. Detroit drafts the highest player on their board, and if Jones falls to here, he'd be just that. And hey, if Detroit can't give Stafford some protection, they'll give him another weapon. 14. Julio Jones would have drawn consideration, but with him off the board, the Rams address their biggest need on the defensive line. Liuget is a very solid prospect who hasn't been talked about a lot, but he makes a whole lot of sense here. 15. With a lot of buzz regarding Mike Ingram's injuries and lack of big play ability, I'm now more confident than ever Miami will not take Ingram with this pick. I've been mocking Pouncey to them for awhile, and I'll stick with that. I'll also say the same thing I do in every mock: I see the Dolphins trading down above all; they are without a second-rounder and want to build up more picks. 16. Kerrigan makes a whole lot of sense for what GM Gene Smith looks for: lots of production in college, high character, good work ethic, and leadership qualities as a bonus. He's a safe pick and would fill a big need for the Jags. I strongly considered Christian Ponder and think he's still a good possibility because he fits the same profile, but I think injury concerns will keep him out of the first round. 17. This is the first of New England's four picks in the first two rounds. My guess is Bill Belichick will draft his board and slowly fill all of the Patriots' needs. In this case, right tackle may not be the biggest need, but Castonzo is way too big a steal to pass up. 18. The Chargers need a five-technique player, and they'd be very lucky to have Watt fall to them here. I wouldn't be surprised to see San Diego trade up to secure Watt from a team like New England who could also be interested in him. 19. Linebacker may be their biggest need, but the Giants don't like drafting them in the first round, and I don't see that changing this year. Instead I see the G-Men getting some youth on the offensive line. That starts here with Solder, an athletic player who has a chance to play left tackle. 20. Concern about Bowers has flared up in the wake of his awful Pro Day, and his draft stock appears to be plummeting. Still, I don't see any reason to be concerned about the knee; he just had a bad Pro Day. I don't think he'll fall out of the first round altogether, and he's a perfect fit for Tampa, a team who needs a defensive end as much as anybody. 21. Scott Pioli could go several different ways with this pick, but for now I'm sticking with my pick that he makes a slight reach to fill a void at nose tackle. I could definitely see an offensive lineman like Gabe Carimi here as well. 22. Wilkerson is getting a lot of buzz lately; it appears that the media is just now realizing how good of a prospect he is. As much as the Colts need defensive tackles, I'm sure Bill Polian's noticed the kid by now. 23. This pick makes sense for the Eagles in many ways. Carimi has drawn comparisons to Jon Runyan and fits perfectly into Andy Reid's style of offense. The Eagles like to convert tackles to guards so Carimi can start at right guard if he doesn't replace Winston Justice right away at right tackle. 24. I've been thinking Mark Ingram would stop falling at this point, but his aforementioned injury concerns and lack of big play ability will push him down a little farther. In the meantime, the Saints get another piece for their front seven in Clayborn, a prospect drawing mixed reviews from scouts. 25. Smith's character concerns seem to be pushing him down draft boards, but I'm still mocking him to Seattle--for now. I think the Seahawks will draft their highest rated player over major needs (as they did twice in the first round last year) and I think Pete Carrol would like the opportunity to give Smith a second chance. 26. I think the Ravens would love for a guy like Muhammad Wilkerson or Corey Liuget to fall to them, but it's not a big deal if neither does because Sherrod would be a great pick here. He could play left tackle from day one, and the Ravens could push Michael Oher to the right side. 27. There's been noticeable buzz about the Falcons trying to trade up for A.J. Green. Sounds very bold but I could definitely see it. If they don't trade up, however, GM Thomas Dimitrof is not going to reach for a receiver here; he'll take the best defensive player on his board. In this case I think that's Paea, a guy who made headlines for setting the bench press record but will sneak into the first round because he has the tape to back it up. 28. After getting an offensive tackle with their first pick, the Patriots address their biggest need here: pass rush. Ayers' draft stock has quietly dropped over the last few months, but I still think he's a first rounder, and a 3-4 rush linebacker might be the best position for him in the NFL. 29. The more I think about this pick, the more I think the Bears are going to make a slight reach for Benjamin Ijalana in an attempt to shore up their offensive line. But for now, the pick is Houston, who appears to be a first-round prospect again after several scouts (including Mike Mayock) claimed he had a questionable motor. 30. Rex Ryan has the Jets defense playing at an elite level, and he's been doing so without talented pass rushers. He can rely a little less on his scheme by drafting one here in Reed, a rising prospect who some think is a lock to in the first round. 31. I said in a previous mock that the Steelers tend to make picks that seem strange at first, but actually make a lot of sense and pan out. Williams fits that profile. He fits well into Pittsburgh's defensive scheme, his draft stock is rising at the right time, and he fills a big need in Pittsburgh's secondary. 32. The departure of Cullen Jenkins was expected, but Johnny Jolly's arrest makes defensive end a significant need for Green Bay. I know GM Ted Thompson doesn't draft for need (wisely), but I think Heyward would be the guy in this spot. 33. At the top of the second round now, the Patriots take the highest player on their board. The Heisman winner is well worth it at 33rd overall, and could make a very nice running tandem with Danny Woodhead. 34. If the Bills take a quarterback in the first round I expect the rest of their draft to focus on the defensive side. That starts here with Wilson, the closest thing to an impact linebacker as there is in this class. A second-rounder for a reason, but he's got the potential. If this seems like a bit of a reach, hey, it's the Bills. 35. And here we go, the second-round quarterbacks start coming off the board. A lot of people think Ryan Mallett is destined to go here as the Bengals don't care about character, but Locker is the better prospect and the better fit for Jay Gruden's offensive scheme. 36. As RazorStar did in our mock draft game, I could easily see the Broncos taking two defensive tackles with their first two picks. Ballard is one of my sleepers in this draft because I think he's a first-round prospect. 37. Cleveland needs a big play receiver badly, so I think Baldwin would be a great pick here in the second round. I don't get some of the scouts downplaying his ability; he's got the physical tools to be an elite playmaker and he doesn't have as many red flags as some have claimed. 38. The Cardinals draft their board, so after getting some pass rush with Von Miller in the first, Rudolph makes a lot of sense here. He's a first-round prospect who will ultimately fall because of the lack of value at the tight end position. 39. Here's another quarterback off the board. This is something of a shot in the dark--Tennessee could take any quarterback here--but I have a feeling Jeff Fisher will fall in love with Mallett's tangibles, as he did with Chris Johnson. 40. Dallas' cornerbacks were awful in 2010, but they had zero help over the top in Alan Ball. I think there's a very good chance they sign Michael Huff as a free agent, but since free agency will most likely occur after the draft, the playmaking Moore is the pick here. 41. If the Redskins don't take a quarterback in the first round (trading down or not), they'll definitely go for one here. I think Mike Shanahan would very much like either Jake Locker or Dalton, and only one of them is still on the board at this point. 42. If the Texans get a pass rusher in the first round, I expect this pick to be a nose tackle or a cornerback. Phil Taylor is long gone, so the pick is Harris, a guy whose stock has fallen because Michael Floyd ate him up, but you can't use that to negate the great season he had. 43. I think taking Kaepernick would be a good situation for Minnesota: he's a project they could develop, and in the meantime, they can give Joe Webb some playing time or trade for a stopgap veteran. In either case, there's no way I see Minnesota leaving this draft without a quarterback in the first two rounds. 44. Once again, the Lions draft the highest player on their board. Hard to say who that would be in this case but Wisniewski makes a lot of sense, especially since he would upgrade the offensive line, something Detroit did not do with their first pick of this mock. 45. I used to think the 49ers would have to trade up to grab Ponder, but now I believe injury concerns and inconsistent tape will drop him to this pick. He's an accurate passer, an ideal fit in the west coast offense that Jim Harbaugh is bringing to San Francisco. 46. After getting two talented defensive tackles, the Broncos get something of a best-player-available pick here in Hankerson, a prospect who will scare off a lot of teams with his drops, but still deserves to go in the second round. 47. The Rams got a defensive lineman with their first pick, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab another one here, but Leshore is very good value, and would be a nice future replacement for Steven Jackson. 48. With no first round pick, the Raiders are in a tough spot. They should be trying to get a quarterback out of this class but may have to trade up to do so. In this case, Stanzi is worth the pick. His decision making at Iowa was far from admirable but can be coached at the next level. 49. Here's another pedestrian pick for the Jaguars. Nothing too flashy, but a solid pick nonetheless. And hey, Hudson is a local product from Florida State. 50. Ijalana's stock has been skyrocketing as of late, and he may go much higher than this, but he makes a lot of sense for the Chargers, who have needed an upgrade at right tackle for years. 51. After Aqib Talib's arrest it became apparent that he may face jail time. That is a serious concern for the Bucs and it means they could make cornerback a much higher draft priority than they were initially anticipating. In that case, Dowling would be a great pick here, a talented press corner with plenty of upside. 52. Watkins is talented enough to go much higher than this, but his age (turns 27 in November) will make some teams balk. He seems a good fit for the Giants here, however, who have several aging offensive linemen. It wouldn't surprise me to see them target the offensive line with their first two picks, as I have them doing here. 53. The Colts could really use an impact outside linebacker. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have been causing havoc for opposing offenses for awhile, but how much better could they be if the Colts improved the front seven around them? 54. Mike Mayock thinks Austin's stock is rising to the point that he'll go in the first round. I don't think he's there yet, but he could be by the time draft day rolls around. In the meantime, he makes sense for the Eagles here. Philly would be perhaps wiser to take a cornerback here, but Andy Reid loves taking linemen when they're the highest player on his board. 55. Here's another sleeper for you. (Shout out to Sarge for drafting him in the mock draft game.) Little is an immensely talented receiver and apparently scouts are starting to notice. He makes sense for the Chiefs because Dwayne Bowe is terribly inconsistent and beyond Dexter McCluster (who may be more of utility guy), who do they have? Kevin Curtis? Chris Chambers? 56. As I pointed out during my breakdown of the NFC South, Saints offensive tackles Jermon Bushrod and Jon Stinchcomb gave up an insane amount of quarterback pressures in 2010. If the Saints want to keep Drew Brees in the pocket, they'd be wise to upgrade at tackle. 57. Here's another prospect who has quietly crept into the second round discussion. After mocking Jimmy Smith to the Hawks in the first round, drafting a defensive end would make a lot of sense here. 58. The Ravens need a receiver who can stretch the field. Smith would provide that instantly, as well as some help in the return game. He may have limited upside, but he's well worth the pick for Baltimore here. 59. I could see Atlanta getting Kyle Rudolph with their first pick (especially if they trade down), but if they don't they'll be on the lookout for Tony Gonzalez's replacement in round two. In a bad class of tight ends, Stocker fits the bill. 60. I considered Sam Acho as a second rookie pass rusher for the Pats, but they have Jermaine Cunningham in the wings. For now, House adds talent to the secondary and would pair nicely with Devon McCourty. 61. The Shawne Merriman era is long gone, and the Larry English era may never begin. San Diego could use another rush linebacker. 62. Nevis is another sleeper for me. He may have limited upside but he's got great tape and was very productive at LSU. He addresses maybe Chicago's biggest need at defensive tackle. 63. After getting a playmaker in the secondary, will the Steelers reach for an offensive lineman here? Hell no, they'll draft their board. At this point in this mock, it's anybody's guess who that would be but Cobb makes sense. After trading Santonio Holmes and realizing that Limas Sweed sucks, they have room to groom another young wideout. 64. Back-to-back receivers to close out the second round? Well yeah. The Packers could use another young receiver with Donald Driver aging and James Jones set to leave via free agency. ------------------------ Future Mock Drafts I'll probably do mock draft 5.0 sometime between next weekend and the weekend after that, depending on how much changes during that time, and in that mock I'll be predicting trades. Then, either the night before or day of round one of the draft, I'll post mock draft 6.0, my final mock of the year.

I have a ton of faith in Nolan; I just wonder if he's thinking too big for this movie. (Watch this be even better than The Dark Knight now.)

I have a feeling this movie is gonna suffer from Spider-Man 3 syndrome...

Yeah it seems like Peterson as a prospect is better than Revis was, but he's not better than Champ Bailey was when he came out in 1999.

Miami Dolphins GM: RazorStar Players Selected: 10 Trades Made: 0 Draft Moves: -Drafted NT Dan Williams 12th overall -Drafted WR Damian Williams 43rd overall -Drafted DE/OLB Koa Misi 73rd overall -Drafted SS Larry Asante 110th overall -Drafted WR Mike Williams 173rd overall -Drafted CB Joshua Moore 174th overall -Drafted TE Tony Moeaki 179th overall -Drafted OT Adam Ulatoski 212th overall -Drafted WR Freddie Barnes 219th overall -Drafted TE Andrew Quarless 252nd overall (compensatory pick) Tampa Bay Buccaneers GM: GoodellFTL Players Selected: 11 Trades Made: 0 Draft Moves: -Drafted DT Gerald McCoy 3rd overall -Drafted WR Arrelious Benn 35th overall -Drafted CB Patrick Robinson 42nd overall -Drafted DE Greg Hardy 67th overall -Drafted HB LeGarrette Blount 101st overall -Drafted WR Dezmon Briscoe 153rd overall -Drafted SS Harry Coleman 172nd overall -Drafted OT Drew Davis 210th overall -Drafted WR Chris McGaha 217th overall -Drafted DE Will Tukuafu 232nd overall -Drafted CB Brian McCann 253rd overall (compensatory pick)

2010 Mock Draft Game Winners 1st place: RazorStar - Miami Dolphins 2nd place: GoodellFTL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3rd place: DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F - Detroit Lions Honorable Mentions1 FartWaffles - Houston Texans Rodgers2Driver - Tennessee Titans SteVo - Indianapolis Colts Tridentdawgpound - Atlanta Falcons Vindifference - Jacksonville Jaguars 1These teams averaged a 3.00 GPA or higher according to the graders of TGP. Listed alphabetically according to GM username.

Yeah, it's part of the nature of the beast. We could vote on this (the 2010 game) next year and probably get different results. More players will pan out, players we thought were going to be pan out will fizzle, etc. Also congratulations to everyone, especially Razor and NBB, who dominated.

TROLLOLOLOLOLOLOL

I have no outstanding complaints. Best 2011 mock posted on TGP to date. Well done, sir.

Had fun putting this together, Purple. I think it turned out pretty good too.

An interesting mock, though I have a lot of little complaints here and there. Instead of listing every pick I disagree with I'll try to point out my outstanding gripes. -Even if Nick Fairley had no red flags and was worthy of being a top 3 pick, the Bills wouldn't be considering him. I'd say that pick is a toss-up between Blaine Gabbert and Von Miller. -The Lions will draft the highest player on their board, and at 13th overall, that is definitely not going to be Brandon Harris. At this point I'd say Harris is a stretch to even be drafted in the first round at all. -I realize that the Akeem Ayers pick makes a lot of sense for the Giants, but it's not happening. The Giants don't take linebackers in the first round, and BLUE will back me up on that one. -Good job on the Eagles pick. You nailed it. -There is no way Cameron Jordan falls all the way down to 24th overall. He's a top 15 prospect and will not escape the first twenty picks. -Bruce Carter in the first round? Not sure that will happen, though I applaud you for being different.

Al Davis saw what I did with the Raiders in our mock draft and liked it.

The following picks have both been confirmed by their respective GMs. With pick #173, the Seattle Seahawks select Pierre Allen, DE, Nebraska. With pick #174, the San Francisco 49ers select Jerrard Tarrant, FS, Georgia Tech. The Tennessee Titans (AirMcNair) are now on the clock.

I'll be going to as many games of that series as I can, which is to say any game that's on a Tuesday, Thursday, or Sunday night. Maybe my odds are slim...

SCREENS OF SMOKE

I don't think they should break bank for the guy because of the value at the position, but signing the best free agent available who plays the position of biggest need would be a good move for Miami for obvious reasons.

Via auto-pick, the Bills select DT Martin Parker. The Cleveland Browns (Trident) are on the clock.

Get the fuck outta here.

Changed my mind. Though I have a feeling my next mock will have you guys taking Ijalana.

Be prepared, because Heckert is gonna draft his board.

I believe I gave you guys Julio Jones in one of my earlier mocks. The Vikings could go a lot of ways; they're one of the tougher teams to mock for this year. I see them trading up or down, to be honest.

I agree with you that the Vikings are high on whatever that DE's name is, otherwise they wouldn't have signed him to that contract. But I feel like with a potential lockout and free agency having not occurred yet, most teams will play it safe and just draft their boards. And, if the Vikings are going to take a tackle, they would need a left tackle, right? Since Phil Loadholt plays right tackle. Some scouts believe Anthony Castonzo is better suited as a right tackle. Do you really think the Vikes would reach for Nate Solder?

49ers - 21 Bears - 16 Bengals - 10 Bills - 18 Broncos - 13 Browns - 9 Buccaneers - 9 Cardinals - 10 Chiefs - 19 Colts - 12 Dolphins - 10 Falcons - 15 Giants - 12 Jaguars - 10 Lions - 9 Packers - 20 Panthers - 9 Patriots - 10 Raiders - 6 Ravens - 9 Redskins - 8 Saints - 10 Seahawks - 8 Steelers - 16 Texans - 10 Titans - 10 Vikings - 7