Bware's First Round Writeup

[BwareDWare94 723]

Looking forward, this year's playoffs look to be exciting in pretty much every series but whichever team plays the Heat. With this in mind, I will discuss each first round matchup with a specific format. I will openly admit that I don't know nearly as much about the Eastern Conference as I do the West, so if I say anything completely wrong about Eastern teams, let me know and I can edit the post. I'll start with getting the least interesting series out of the way.

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND

 

Miami Heat (1) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (8)

The Miami Heat have a first round punching bag coming to town in the Milwaukee Bucks. While the Bucks have two high scoring guards in Jennings and Ellis and a rising star in center Larry Sanders, they lack true superstar talent and just don't have the talent level or depth to compete with the star studded Heat.

 

Heat:

Maximum win total for series (MWT): 4, and they'll do it in 4.

X-Factor: LeBron. You know he'll show.

Wild Card: Chris Bosh. If he starts at Center and can pull Sanders away from the basket, he'll allow LeBron and Wade to wreak havoc in the paint.

 

Bucks:

MWT: 0

X-Factor: Larry Sanders. Can he control the paint well enough to at least allow Milwaukee to be competitive in a game or two?

Wild Card: Monta Ellis. If he goes off, we might have one or two interesting games.

 

This series is already over.

 

New York Knicks (2) vs. Boston Celtics (7)

The Knicks have been on a tear of late, and I fully expect that to continue against the depleted Celtics. The main advantage the Celtics have is a much better coach in Doc Rivers, but I don't think they have the pieces to knock off the Knicks in a 7 game series. I'm excited to see if the Celtics can surprise once again, but I just don't see it this time around.

 

Knicks:

MWT: 4

X-Factor: Carmelo. Can he stay hot?

Wild Card(s): Amar'e, if he can get on a roll. The more likely Wild Card is Tyson Chandler and his defense and rebounding.

 

Celtics:

MWT: 2

X-Factor: Garnett. The team's defense and spirit runs through him. He will take them above and beyond what appears to be their capability, but it won't be enough.

Wild Card: whoever tries (and likely fails) to defend Carmelo.

 

I'm thinking 4-1, Knicks

 

Indiana Pacers (3) vs. Atlanta Hawks (6)

The Hawks ought to be a punching bag for Indiana, but the Pacers have been playing so poorly lately that I just don't know how they'll perform. However, Frank Vogel is a hell of a coach and will get them going again. The Hawks could surprise and snag a few games, but I don't see it happening.

 

Pacers:

MWT: 4

X-Factor: Paul George. Can he replicate what he's done in the regular season?

Wild Card: David West. He needs to pick up the slack if George struggles.

 

Hawks:

MWT: 2

X-Factor: Josh Smith. He's their best player, and he needs to show it.

Wild Card: Horford. He's a hell of a player, but can he play with Hibbert as an undersized center? We'll see. We'll see.

 

This series is potentially exciting but I'm thinking 4-1, Pacers.

 

Brooklyn Nets (4) vs. Chicago Bulls (5)

This series is potentially ballistic with two teams we really don't trust going head to head. The Nets have some star power but are starting Reggie Evans. The Bulls have a star point guard who absolutely could be playing right now but for some reason has chosen to abandon his teammates for the season. The Bulls have been much better than we ever thought they'd be without Rose. Imagine what they could do if he just nutted up and suited up for the playoffs?

 

Bulls:

MWT: 4

X-Factor: Joakim Noah. He'll neutralize Brook Lopez and weaken the Nets from the get.

Wild Card: Derrick Rose. Suit up (in your game uniform) or Suit up! (in my best Barney Stinson voice). My guess is the latter.

 

Nets:

MWT: 4

X-Factor: Deron. He has to be big or the Nets will be gone

Wild Card: Brook Lopez. Can he rebound? We'll see.

 

I think the Nets pull this one off because the Bulls just won't be able to consistently compete without Rose. I'm thinking 4-2, Nets.

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND

 

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Houston Rockets (8)

There's a fun storyline here in James Harden, but this series is likely over as of last night around midnight central time when Houston shit the bed and lost to a barely there Lakers team. The Rockets are very capable of competing in every game and maybe stealing one or two, but they have no chance at upsetting the Thunder in round 1. No chance, whatsoever.

 

Thunder:

MWT: 4

X-Factor: Durant. He is their everything.

Wild Card(s): Westbrook. He can't be building a brick house out there, and I don't expect him to. Will he defer when he's off? There's also Kevin Martin. They need points off the bench and he should be able to provide.

 

Rockets:

MWT: 2

X Factor: Harden. He is their everything.

Wild Card: Greg Smith. I think he's quick enough to keep up with Ibaka, and I fully expect his size to give Serge some trouble.

 

 

This series is already over. 4-1, Thunder.

 

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

The Lakers are hot; the Spurs aren't. This could be an extremely interesting 2-7 series, and I fully expect at least 6 games. My gut says that without Kobe, the Lakers can't compete, but with a dominant center and several three point shooters, I think LAL might be better suited for this playoff run. They haven't all meshed, but they don't have to mesh to know how to spot up and shoot the ball.

 

Spurs:

MWT: 4

X Factor: Tony Parker. If he doesn't play as well as he has so far this season, the Spurs will lose.

Wild Card: Spurs shooters (Green, Neal, Leonard, etc). They either show up or the Spurs have to rely too much on their aging superstars.

 

Lakers:

MWT: 4

X Factor: Dwight Howard. He'll bring it.

Wild Card: Steve Nash. Let's see what he can do when he doesn't have to defer to Kobe all the time.

 

For some reason, I'm feeling the Lakers in this series. Here's my first round upset pick. Lakers, 4-3.

 

Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

Who knows what this series could bring, considering the absence of Gallinari and the potential absences of Lawson and Faried? The Warriors come into the series on a roll with a young, sharp shooting point guard and 3 very potent post players in Lee, Bogut, and Landry. At the same time, they are lacking in real playoff experience and I just don't know if they can compete with Denver if both Lawson and Faried can play.

 

Nuggets:

MWT: 4

X-Factor: Ty Lawson, but will he be himself?

Wild Card: Kenneth Faried. If he's healthy, they should be OK in the paint.

 

Warriors:

MWT: 4

X-Factor: Steph Curry. He has to be on, or the Warriors will be out, and quick.

Wild Card: Carl Landry. We know David Lee will produce, but the Warriors need bench points so Landry needs to return to early season form.

 

The only way the Warriors have a chance to win this is if they can steal game 1 or 2. I think they do, but I think Denver slowly gets healthy and wins it 4-3

 

Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5)

Neither team is on a roll, but between the two only Memphis has been consistent throughout the season. The Clippers had their long winning streak but then seemingly struggled for the rest of the season. They obviously have more star power, but since the Rudy Gay trade the Grizzlies have been a well oiled machine orchestrated by the very underrated Mike Conley. Without Rudy taking a bunch of terrible shots, the Grizzlies have been a better team.

 

Clippers:

MWT: 4

X Factor: Chris Paul. He's the main man.

Wild Card(s): DeAndre Jordan. He has to make himself useful by playing defense and rebounding. He can't be a liability on the court. There's also Jamal Crawford. Will his shots be falling?

 

Grizzlies:

MWT: 4

X Factor: Zack Randolph. He needs to be big or the Grizzlies will lose out quickly.

Wild Card(s): Ed Davis. When Zack is on the bench, Davis needs to handle Griffin. Best of luck. I also think Tayshaun Prince could help if his shot is falling.

 

I really don't know where to go with this one, but I'm leaning Grizzlies since they don't have Rudy Gay taking horrible shots anymore. I'm thinking 4-2 Grizzlies, but I wouldn't be surprised if this goes 7.

 

 

If you took the time to read this, let me know what you think and if it's well liked I might do this for each round going forward.

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

Enjoyable read, Bware. I agree with you everywhere except I think the Bulls take the series.

[Piggly Wiggly 960]

Brooklyn Nets (4) vs. Chicago Bulls (5)

This series is potentially ballistic with two teams we really don't trust going head to head. The Nets have some star power but are starting Reggie Evans.

Reggie Evans is the biggest B.A.M.F. in the NBA, though. Definitely my favorite Net by far.

 

While it'd be nice to see the Nets win their first playoff series since 2007, I also don't care to see them get fucking obliterated in four straight games by the Heat. So, I won't lose sleep if the Nets get eliminated by the Bulls and have the honor of getting hate fucked by the Heat in round 2.

 

What I will be pulling hard for is the Celtics to beat the Knicks. People shouldn't be surprised if the Knicks choke on their dicks in the 1st round, either. This is a team that has won ONE fucking playoff game since 2001. They get ahead of themselves in the regular season and then shit the bed in the postseason. That's the way the Knicks roll.

[JetsFan4Life 542]

Nice write-up Bware. Only thing is Amare won't be playing in the first round (pretty much definite).