CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted April 30, 2014 By Jonathan Bales "Quarterbacks need to be tall. They need to be tall to see over the offensive and defensive lines. If you aren’t tall, you’re not going to have much of an opportunity to be a championship-caliber quarterback."That’s the popular opinion around the NFL, and I don’t buy it. Sure, extra height might help a quarterback in certain situations, up to a point. Given the choice between a 6’5” quarterback and a 6’0” quarterback with all other things being equal or unknown, I’ll take the taller one.But I don’t think height matters all that much, and certainly not to the extent that people believe, even though I’ve done studies showing taller quarterbacks have more NFL productivity and efficiency than shorter ones.How can that be? Well, I believe height is very strongly correlated with a trait that matters quite a bit for NFL quarterbacks—hand size. Tall quarterbacks typically have larger hands than shorter ones; if hand size were really important for passers, we’d expect the tallest ones to perform the best even if height doesn’t matter at all.To test this idea, I charted as many quarterback hand sizes and career NFL stats as I could. I found hand measurements for every quarterback who was drafted since 2008, but before that, it’s a crap shoot. Hand sizes weren’t recorded well before that time and there’s really no reliable source to find that data. Some pre-2008 quarterback hand sizes have been made public in various places, however, so I collected as much information as possible.To start, I considered only quarterbacks who were drafted from 2008 to 2012 and had their hands measured at the combine to be sure everything was standardized. Then, I charted both their approximate value (AV) per season (a good measure of their overall productivity) and their completion percentage.The latter stat is important because I believe larger hands allow quarterbacks to control the football and throw it accurately. If my hypothesis is correct, we should see passers with larger hands have a higher completion percentage.Comparing hand size with height, here’s the difference in the r-value (correlation coefficient—the strength of the relationship between x and y) for hand size/height and both AV/season and completion percentage. Basically, I just subtracted the r-value for the hand size correlation from that for the height correlation. If hand size is more strongly correlated with NFL quarterback success and accuracy than height, we’d expect the values to be positive.Both values are positive, and it’s not even that close. There’s a much stronger correlation between hand size and both approximate value and completion rate than there is between height and those stats.Short Quarterbacks Who ThriveIf hand size really matters more than height for quarterbacks, we’d expect two things to be true: over the long run, 1) tall quarterbacks with abnormally small hands will struggle and 2) short quarterbacks with abnormally large hands will thrive.Again, that’s going to be difficult to prove conclusively because there’s not a huge sample of hand measurements pre-2008, but there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence that this is the case. Looking back on the short quarterbacks who have excelled in the NFL, many of them have really big hands for their height.Consider that the NFL average for quarterback hand size is currently 9.6 inches. Well, some of the top “short” quarterbacks (6’2” or shorter) of the past decade have ridiculously large hands—Drew Brees (10.25 inches), Russell Wilson (10.25 inches), Brett Favre (10.38 inches). There are also countless tall quarterbacks with small hands who were drafted highly and failed to live up to expectations.Small-Handed Quarterbacks Who ExcelThere are some quarterbacks with small hands who have bucked the trend to play well in the NFL, too. But as I studied those quarterbacks, it became clear that the majority have one thing in common—mobility. Some of the top small-handed quarterbacks to play in the past decade include Michael Vick (historically small 8.5-inch hands), Colin Kaepernick (9.13 inches), Robert Griffin III (9.5 inches), Daunte Culpepper (9.5 inches), Aaron Rodgers (9.38 inches), and Tony Romo (8.86 inches).All of those passers are either runners or have well above-average mobility in the pocket. Romo is the least athletic by far, but even he has been able to work wizardry in the pocket at times to buy time for receivers.Thus, I think what we’re seeing here is that quarterbacks either need to have above-average hand size or above-average mobility to ultimately do what passers need to do to win—deliver the football with accuracy. If you aren’t going to be able to stand in the pocket and consistently throw the ball accurately like Peyton Manning, you better be able to move around, buying time to make those throws easier.When quarterbacks have both traits—like Russell Wilson, for example—it’s perhaps a really strong sign that they’re going to perform above expectations in the NFL.Acquiring Value in the DraftIf you talk to NFL quarterbacks, I think most would tell you that they throw through lanes, not over the top of the line. Tall quarterbacks have played well not because they can see over players who are often taller than them, but because height is obviously strongly correlated with hand size. Big height, big hands, big accuracy.You ever throw a small football and notice how much more accuracy and power you can generate? If I could throw with one of those tiny NERF footballs with the tail at the end, I’m pretty sure I’d be an NFL Hall-of-Fame quarterback. Just ridiculously deadly. Quarterbacks with huge hands like Brees and Wilson are playing with the equivalent of a NERF ball.Both of those quarterbacks are really interesting cases because they fell in the NFL draft—Brees to the second round and Wilson incredibly to the third—because they’re short. Brees is 6’0” and Wilson is 5’11”.Somewhat ironically, I think NFL teams (and us fantasy owners) can acquire value by actually targeting quarterbacks who are short but have large hands. They fall too far because teams are emphasizing the wrong trait.So why not just draft a tall quarterback with large hands? Aren’t all 10.25-inch hands the same?No. Remember, NFL teams are “paying” for height in quarterbacks, so tall quarterbacks with big hands are going to get drafted highly anyway. It’s for the wrong reason, but the big hands will still be priced into their draft slot, meaning there’s no discount available.Meanwhile, short quarterbacks with large hands typically offer value because they’re being downgraded for a characteristic (height) that probably isn’t nearly as important as teams think.And you know the fantasy owners in your league are drafting rookies based on how they were drafted in the NFL draft, so you too can acquire that same value on short quarterbacks with big hands. If you don’t believe me, just compare Wilson’s rookie fantasy draft position with Andrew Luck’s (or even Ryan Tannehill’s).I actually created a really simple formula to determine how much value a quarterback will likely offer in the draft: HS/H*100 (hand size divided by height multiplied by 100). The higher the result, the more likely the quarterback will be to offer value.In the 2012 NFL Draft, for example, Tannehill checked in at 76 inches tall with nine-inch hands. His “Jonathan Bales Hand Size and Height Comparison for Quarterbacks Who Can’t Pass Good and Who Wanna Learn to Do Other QB Stuff Good Too” value was 9 divided by 76 (0.1184) * 100, or 11.84.Compare that to Wilson, who was only 71 inches tall with 10.25-inch hands (10.25/71*100 = 14.44). That’s just an unbelievable difference, suggesting Wilson was bound to offer far, far more value than Tannehill.There are more things that go into being a quarterback than hand size, obviously, but when two prospects get drafted near one another, use the formula to see which one was more likely to drop too far, and thus offer value.Typically, we want quarterbacks who have hands of at least 9.5 inches, but preferably closer to 10 inches. There are of course exceptions to the rule, but the majority of those passers can also beat defenses with their legs. The more mobility a quarterback possesses, the more you can forgive a lack of elite hand size. If a quarterback is a statue in the pocket, he better have some big hands and a history of production in college.source: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/47036/311/exploring-qb-hand-size-----------------------------------------------------So basically this is what it concludes:• Hand size should be valued more than height • Shorter QBs with big hands can thrive• Mobile QBs can overcome small hand size• Immobile with small hands is a disasterI went ahead and used this guy's formula to show the results for the 2014 QB class. Keep in mind the order isn't who is the best QB of the class — just an opportunity to take advantage of underrated value. His formula doesn't take into account completion %, pocket poise/presence, NFL caliber arms, leadership, etc. So this is nothing more than showcasing guys who might offer a lot of hidden value in the draft much like Drew Brees and Russell Wilson did:Looks ugly right? Logan Thomas and Stephen Morris up top Again though, weigh this along with all the other stuff we know about these QBs like accuracy, ball placement, pocket poise/presence, NFL caliber arms etc. and see if there's any hidden value here. Thoughts? I'll offer mine later. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vin+ 3,121 Posted April 30, 2014 Jeff Mathews is gonna do things. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
butta54 371 Posted April 30, 2014 It is all pretty logical from a theoretical standpoint. The part you mentioned about QBs throwing through lanes and not over lineman is the key. Because a QB is throwing through a lane, the ones with less ball control (smaller hands) are effective when they are mobile because outside of the pocket the lanes are much more clear. Now in practice I don't trust any type of value system when it comes to the draft besides old-fashioned film evaluation, but height to me is a marginal advantage. As you said it shouldn't be valued as much as it is, but at the end of the day in certain situations having a higher trajectory is helpful especially in a league where they have finally taught the non-pass rushing lineman to just just up and block passing lanes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted April 30, 2014 Just to be clear I only wrote the very end of this post from the "--------------" and below, as well as use the guy's formula to make the table. But yeah, I thought obviously it was very on point. Also @ Vin, Mathews #3 overall let's do this. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241 Posted April 30, 2014 I think hand size does a better job of saying who's worse then who's better. Granted, bigger hand size can help a ton with accuracy, especially in adverse weather conditions. Also, Mr. Savage doesn't have hands... He has catcher mitts attached to his wrists. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vin+ 3,121 Posted April 30, 2014 Just to be clear I only wrote the very end of this post from the "--------------" and below, as well as use the guy's formula to make the table. But yeah, I thought obviously it was very on point. Also @ Vin, Mathews #3 overall let's do this. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wattafan 28 Posted May 1, 2014 Nice work dude. Doesn't Logan Thomas have chronic accuracy issues yet by the graphic, he has the biggest hands...? Perhaps he is just raw and needs a decent QB coach to help him with throwing mechanics. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
butta54 371 Posted May 1, 2014 Nice work dude. Doesn't Logan Thomas have chronic accuracy issues yet by the graphic, he has the biggest hands...? Perhaps he is just raw and needs a decent QB coach to help him with throwing mechanics. This Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted May 1, 2014 Nice work dude. Doesn't Logan Thomas have chronic accuracy issues yet by the graphic, he has the biggest hands...? Perhaps he is just raw and needs a decent QB coach to help him with throwing mechanics. Yeah like butta55 said. Also if you look at who Thomas had around him last year it was all freshman/sophomores who had no idea where to to go, what routes to run, that entire team was a travesty. It's still just an excuse though, and Thomas wasn't good enough to overcome that so he's obviously not that great of a player yet. But this is pointing out he's the best piece of clay to mold if you grab him in the middle to late rounds. That's why whoever it was that drafted Thomas in the mock draft game here I congratulated the value he got. If I'm gonna pick up a day 3 QB give me the guy with rare physical measureables so I can coach him up and see what can possibly come of him. If he doesn't pan out oh well it's just a day 3 pick, those don't pan out at a good % rate anyways. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Favre4Ever+ 4,476 Posted May 1, 2014 Really nice information and post. Put Brock Jensen on the list... Hall of Famer if I have ever seen one. +1 for OP. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted May 1, 2014 (edited) Really nice information and post. Put Brock Jensen on the list... Hall of Famer if I have ever seen one. +1 for OP. I can't find his hand size, if anyone does from a reputable source I'll enter him in. Edited May 1, 2014 by CampinWithGoatSampson Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
butta54 371 Posted May 1, 2014 (edited) Nice work dude. Doesn't Logan Thomas have chronic accuracy issues yet by the graphic, he has the biggest hands...? Perhaps he is just raw and needs a decent QB coach to help him with throwing mechanics. Yeah like butta55 said. Also if you look at who Thomas had around him last year it was all freshman/sophomores who had no idea where to to go, what routes to run, that entire team was a travesty. It's still just an excuse though, and Thomas wasn't good enough to overcome that so he's obviously not that great of a player yet. But this is pointing out he's the best piece of clay to mold if you grab him in the middle to late rounds. That's why whoever it was that drafted Thomas in the mock draft game here I congratulated the value he got. If I'm gonna pick up a day 3 QB give me the guy with rare physical measureables so I can coach him up and see what can possibly come of him. If he doesn't pan out oh well it's just a day 3 pick, those don't pan out at a good % rate anyways. I could have a two hour discussion on Logan Thomas. Maybe one of the most interesting prospects (hear that alot in this draft), because he does have rare size and if you've seen him run you know he knows how to use it. But beyond the typical dual threat college QB he has very good patience and progression when in the pocket. He is not going to lock on to one guy and run around until he is open, Thomas actually has shown the ability to line up against a defense with some standard route concepts, read the defensive coverage and take what they give him, The problem with Logan is that when the ball comes out I don't think anyone but Jesus knows where it's gonna end up going. He flashes the top level arm strength and accuracy to fit it in between a half-way rolled up car window and out the other side. And then he shows you he can throw it into a pool and miss the water. There can be a number of reasons, but sometimes people just aren't NFL caliber players and whatever team grabs him will already believe they know the problem...they have the solution....and they have the staff to execute fixing him. Edited May 1, 2014 by butta55 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wattafan 28 Posted May 1, 2014 Nice work dude. Doesn't Logan Thomas have chronic accuracy issues yet by the graphic, he has the biggest hands...? Perhaps he is just raw and needs a decent QB coach to help him with throwing mechanics. Yeah like butta55 said. Also if you look at who Thomas had around him last year it was all freshman/sophomores who had no idea where to to go, what routes to run, that entire team was a travesty. It's still just an excuse though, and Thomas wasn't good enough to overcome that so he's obviously not that great of a player yet. But this is pointing out he's the best piece of clay to mold if you grab him in the middle to late rounds. That's why whoever it was that drafted Thomas in the mock draft game here I congratulated the value he got. If I'm gonna pick up a day 3 QB give me the guy with rare physical measureables so I can coach him up and see what can possibly come of him. If he doesn't pan out oh well it's just a day 3 pick, those don't pan out at a good % rate anyways. I could have a two hour discussion on Logan Thomas. Maybe one of the most interesting prospects (hear that alot in this draft), because he does have rare size and if you've seen him run you know he knows how to use it. But beyond the typical dual threat college QB he has very good patience and progression when in the pocket. He is not going to lock on to one guy and run around until he is open, Thomas actually has shown the ability to line up against a defense with some standard route concepts, read the defensive coverage and take what they give him, The problem with Logan is that when the ball comes out I don't think anyone but Jesus knows where it's gonna end up going. He flashes the top level arm strength and accuracy to fit it in between a half-way rolled up car window and out the other side. And then he shows you he can throw it into a pool and miss the water. There can be a number of reasons, but sometimes people just aren't NFL caliber players and whatever team grabs him will already believe they know the problem...they have the solution....and they have the staff to execute fixing him. That's pretty much the way I saw it too. If he IS fixable, he could be pretty decent. Fortunately for my team, we have a guy who fancies himself as a bit of a QB fixer upper... :allhail: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241 Posted May 2, 2014 Really don't think there's any hope for Tom Savage. He's got career backup written all over him. I know all the cliches about anything is possible, and the draft is a crapshoot, blah blah blah, I just don't see it. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025 Posted May 2, 2014 Really don't think there's any hope for Tom Savage. He's got career backup written all over him. I know all the cliches about anything is possible, and the draft is a crapshoot, blah blah blah, I just don't see it. Someone who is as inaccurate and doesn't respond well to pressure/blitzing like Savage who is also already 24 years old... yeah, not looking good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites