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Phins4life

P4L's Stream of Consciousness: AKA The Random Musings of a Disgruntled Fins Fan

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I figure it's best to just have one thread I can throw all my random thoughts into rather than pollute the forum with dozens of different topics.  The biggest things on my mind at 2230 LST, when I should really be resting up for my promotion test tomorrow, are as follows:

The Tannehill dilemma:  I really respect him as a person and as a guy who's never seemingly been a locker room distraction.  He's a good dude with a good work ethic, and he's going to find a team.  Having said that, I concede it's time to dump the wasted money and continue the trend they already started by releasing Branch and Larson.  The answer, in my opinion, is not to pursue anyone in free agency.  No one there is really worth it.  I'm thrilled they didn't decide to flush away $20 million on Foles.  Don't get me wrong...he's easily the most clutch you'll see from a backup being paid like a starter.  Might be because he used to be a starter, but I digress...

No free agency.  The solution is simple.  When I first heard the growing hype around Murray, it wasn't hard to take Kingsbury's old quote and do the math.  Kyler's stock went way up once everyone found out he's a half inch taller than whatever the dreaded arbitrary height threshold is for "successful" NFL QB's, or that he didn't have tiny Trump hands.  So then I started wondering about Rosen...and then I heard analysts and pundits discuss it out loud and now I'm feeling pretty strongly about it.  Miami should trade for him.  Especially if the Cards are willing to accept the absurdly low price of a third rounder.  Miami could even sweeten the deal by offloading Parker to an Arizona offense that could use a little depth at WR.  Fitz won't be ageless forever.  Both guys get a fresh start on a team with a need at those respective positions.  And Miami cuts a solid amount of cap space with 2 personnel moves they were going to make anyway, while obtaining a potential franchise QB in the process.  And if he doesn't pan out,  Trevor Lawrence just so happens to be draft eligible the same year Rosen's rookie deal is up...unless I've done my math wrong.  There's almost no way Miami loses in this scenario, the way I see it.  Am I crazy?  I'm curious on other people's takes. 

Frank Gore and Cameron Wake : Wake is probably my favorite Dolphin since Marino.  I love his leadership, attitude and of course the fact that even at his age he's still an athletic freak of nature.  I'll be sad to see him walk away from Miami, but if I'm honest, there aren't many players in the NFL without a ring who deserve one as much as him.  I'd be thrilled to see him end up with a contender like LA or KC.  Maybe the Saints.  He upgrades the depth of basically any 4-3 line he ends up on.  Somebody will take him.  Maybe the Colts, now that I think about it.  They almost have enough money to buy a small country...they might as well spend some of it on a great leader with a solid pass rushing resume. Ballard is a freaking genius over there.  As for Gore, I hope the Fins re-sign him.  Not because they need his rushing talent (although they do), but because they need his veteran leadership on the offensive side of the ball, especially if they trade for the aforementioned Rosen.  Not to mention, it would just be really cool to watch him move up the all time rushing list while wearing Fins colors.  He won't come at a steep price, and I think it's a sound short-term investment.  

The Draft:  For the longest time, I hated it when Miami took a trench fighter in the first round.  Now, all I want is for them to stock up on offensive and defensive linemen.  It's like that moment when you grow up and actually appreciate all the socks and underwear you get for Christmas.  You just can't do without that stuff.  And dear God, does Miami need help on that O-line.  The only one worse last year was Arizona.  I'd hate to see Rosen get traumatized like that in back-to-back years.  He'd never be the same after that.  So if you're hearing me, football gods, I'll be more than happy if we end up with a guy like Williams, Taylor, Bradbury or any of the other first round graded big guys this year. 

That's enough out of me for now.  Gotta go bomb this test tomorrow.  Thanks for reading. 

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I don't think you grab a starter in free agency, but you grab someone to fill the roster spot who can play in a pinch. As for the Rosen move... I don't think the kid has it. He might be a talent, but I don't think he has the mental toughness to turn it around. if you're trading for him you're basically committing to a Jimmy Clausen / Johnny Manziel type of player. The best ploy is to tank this season for 2020, get Tua, and laugh all the way to the bank. Grab the best OLine or DLine prospect available in this draft and protect the battery that is Osweiler / Fales / whoever else ends up at the position this year. 

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3 hours ago, RazorStar said:

I don't think you grab a starter in free agency, but you grab someone to fill the roster spot who can play in a pinch. As for the Rosen move... I don't think the kid has it. He might be a talent, but I don't think he has the mental toughness to turn it around. if you're trading for him you're basically committing to a Jimmy Clausen / Johnny Manziel type of player. The best ploy is to tank this season for 2020, get Tua, and laugh all the way to the bank. Grab the best OLine or DLine prospect available in this draft and protect the battery that is Osweiler / Fales / whoever else ends up at the position this year. 

On Rosen, normally I would agree with you, except...tell me who among the available FA's would really be worth whatever price they are demanding, compared to stealing a first-rounder with 3 years left on his contract, whose guaranteed money has already been handled by the Cards?  And this could be done with a mid-round pick.  Even PFF still believes he has higher value than what Arizona is rumored to be asking.  They aren't the final arbiter on all things football, but they have pretty solid insights.  You have to admit that a clear-cut evaluation of Rosen after that overall shit show of a season is difficult to pull off.  Comparing him to Clausen and Manziel this early feels just that...too early...when you consider the line he played behind and the coaching he received.  And the drops...Jesus.  The Cards receivers had to be among the 5 worst groups in that category.  Look at the Seahawks game as a great example.  I'm not suggesting he's the answer, but I am suggesting that, financially speaking, he's worth the investment over trying to throw money at a guy like Bridgewater (health), Fitzpatrick (roller coaster) or Taylor (really?).  Not to mention, he would be coming to a team that has loaded up on guys from the Belichick tree.  That doesn't guarantee success, but I like to think O'Shea would have more luck helping to mold a young QB (that the Pats had expressed interest in) and fit him into a system that works and maximizes his potential.  Neither parties have much to lose. 

Which leads me to something else on my mind...I hate how loosely people use the word "tank" these days.  Yes, it generates catchy hashtags like Tank for Tua or Suck for Luck.  And yes, it is true Miami has been candid about their intent to rebuild, but that hardly means they're going to actively attempt to lose.  They are just going in knowing that it will be hard to win because of the youth and lack of experience on the field.  Two different strategies.  This isn't the NBA.  Win or lose, they're still going to see player development, for better or worse.  If anything, maybe grabbing Rosen for a cheap enough price kills both birds with one stone...we save cap space and he performs horribly, thus giving us a shot at Tua or Lawrence or whoever down the road.  Like I said...Miami pretty much wins all around in this case. 

Edited by Phins4life

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Oh, my choice for who you get in Free agency is... nobody. Just grab a dude. Not a good dude, just a dude. Geno Smith, David Fales, whatever can walk, breath, and can sign for nearly the vet minimum. and my honest feeling is that the Cardinals don't actually want Kyler Murray. This is all setting landmines, making people hype about nothing so that they can agitate the trade market a bit. The Cards need help everywhere, and I think it's way more likely they sit on Rosen for at least another season before pulling the plug, even if I personally think he won't amount to much.

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Latest and greatest topic on my mind:

The Browns, and how excited I am for them as a football fan in general.  And just how good Dorsey is at consolidating talent.  People can say what they want about his cap and personnel management styles in KC, but he's also the same guy responsible for helping to build the roster that nearly made the Super Bowl, so...there's that.  Now he's making his mark in Cleveland only 2 seasons in.  I'm still undecided on the Kareem Hunt move, partially because of the drama that got him in trouble in the first place.  But more so because I think Nick Chubb is just a better back, though maybe not the best receiver of the two.  He earned that starting role and I think he should have it in Week 1, regardless of Hunt's status.  Time will determine if that last opinion is correct or not.  Either way he still strengthens the depth, and definitely doesn't make that backfield any less talented. 

But anyway, seriously...first the Vernon trade, and now OBJ?   Again, time will tell if character concerns rear their heads, but Jesus.  They gave up a lot for him, but it still truck me as a pretty fair bargain for arguably the second or third best receiver in the game right now behind Brown (top 5 at the very least) who is just entering his prime.  But can he stay healthy?  Main thing is I feel like this move kind of solidifies the idea that the Giants are leaning heavily towards a rebuilding period, if they haven't already fully committed.  I had just kind of assumed Odell was an untouchable, but clearly not.  Between these 2 trades, the Giants now have a younger and cheaper option at safety (who might also give them better options in coverage than Collins), a good offensive lineman and a couple of top 100 picks, which I assume they will use on a WR (or T?) and maybe a defensive player(?).  I highly doubt they use their top pick on anything other than a QB, but I'm far from an expert.  I'm not totally sure what their most pressing needs are, seeing as how they have...quite a few.  But clearly, they will need to protect whoever their QB is going to be, and there is a lot of depth this year in the O-line class for them to choose from. 

Cleveland has obtained their bookend pass rusher to compliment Garrett for the time being, and now a true WR1 that tops off (in my opinion) a very strong and young receiver/tight end corps. Probably the best group in the AFCN, if not one of the best in the AFC as a whole.  Add in the fact that Landry and OBJ are great friends IRL, and I think the morale and chemistry on this squad is going to be solid.  This offense has a high ceiling, and now what I'm most interested to see is what Cleveland does in the Draft sans their 1st and and one of their 3rd round picks.  I would assume the primary focus will be on the front seven to help stop the run and rush the passer on a more consistent basis, and on the O-line.  According to PFF, Chubb had just about the worst distance to first contact average...which makes his rushing average that much more impressive.  Boosting that run blocking game can't do anything but make him that much scarier.  Maybe they get a new safety, or do they stick with Kindred/Randall as the likely duo?  The team's turnover differential last year was nothing short of impressive.  Lackluster offense shouldn't be a problem this year.  All things considered, if they can come anywhere near that turnover production this year along with an improved pass rush, is it out of the realm of possibility they make a push as deep as the Divisional round?  Further?

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Been a while since my last random musing, so in honor of the end of the pre-season and roster cuts, here are 13 bold(ish) predictions for the Miami Dolphins in a year bound to be filled with mediocrity:

1.  There will be at least 2 starting QB changes before the bye week.  Whoever is starting after the bye will be our guy till the end. 

2.  Due to injuries, one of the Dolphins rookie running backs (Gaskin/Laird) will have a breakout performance of 100+ scrimmage yards and at least 1 TD. 

3.  Preston Williams will finish the season in the top 10 for AFC OROTY votes.

4.  Albert Wilson will finish the season with more yards after contact than any Dolphins running back. 

5.  Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick will each finish the season with at least one 3-TD performance.

6.  Josh Rosen and Ryan FItzpatrick will also each finish the season with at least one 3-INT performance. 

7.  Miami QBs will take at least 70 sacks combined. 

8.  Sam Eguavoen will finish the season with 10 sacks or more. 

9.  Jerome Baker will finish the season with at least 5 sacks and 5 total forced turnovers. 

10.  Minkah Fitzpatrick will finish the season with more interceptions than Xavien Howard.  

11.  Miami will upset at least 1 playoff contender after the bye week.

12.  Jason Sanders will kick the 50+ yard game winner in that upset.

13.  Miami will not draft a QB with their first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft.  That honor will go to an OT. 

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How could they not draft a QB in 2020? If it were a bad year I get it, but between Tua, Herbert, and Fromm, one of them has to be a Dolphin, no?

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1 hour ago, SteVo said:

How could they not draft a QB in 2020? If it were a bad year I get it, but between Tua, Herbert, and Fromm, one of them has to be a Dolphin, no?

They just picked up a former first round QB who deserves more than one season behind a similarly shitty offensive line as he had in Arizona.  Giving him another year gives him a little more confidence and provides a better performance sampling for interested parties by the time his contract is up.  I would prefer an O-line rebuild for 2020, and target Trevor Lawrence in 2021 if Rosen hasn't progressed as desired.  It's not to say I don't like Tua...he's the only one I'd want from this class.  He's the most accurate and the most complete, albeit with a few flaws of his own. 

Additionally, I don't actually believe Miami will be drafting first.  I feel like that will go to Cincy, Washington or Oakland.  Top 5, yes.  Probably top 3.  But that means they may have to trade draft capital to move up for a QB I'm not 100% confident in.  Draft capital that would be better used shoring up the O-line.  And if they are drafting first, they'd be better served trading down to horde more picks, in my opinion.  Then they could maybe pick up a 2nd or 3rd round QB for a fraction of the cost to challenge Rosen in training camp and/or play the new backup.  

Basically I'd like to see Miami avoid the kind of situation the Colts found themselves in with Luck.  It ended up being too little, too late.  Investing in pass protection before investing in a franchise QB has always felt like a smarter move for me over the long haul.  We've waded through mediocrity for the last 2 decades.  What's 2 more seasons?

Edited by Phins4life
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I love the idea of building up the O-line first. But if the Dolphins love a QB in the draft and are in position to take one, you have to pull the trigger. You can always just start poor Rosen and save Tua/whoever until the OL is up to par.

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Perhaps.  It might be what they have in mind, to be honest.  It's just not how I'd do it.  But again, this isn't a knock on Tua's quality.  I just don't like the "throw stuff at the wall until it sticks" approach when it comes to drafting QBs.  I want to wait until I find the one that I'm convinced I shouldn't pass on.  For me, Tua isn't that guy. 

But in that vein, I'm also trying to put my faith in a scouting department that, up until the last 2 drafts, has been sketchy at best.  They haven't inspired much confidence in their player personnel assessments over the last 2 decades, as a rule. 

Edited by Phins4life

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