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RazorStar

Razor's QB Rankings 2019

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Hello everyone, it's another year of this. Most of you are familiar with the general premise of what I do for these rankings, basing it solely on offensive efficiency. These stats are completion percentage, TD/ATT, TO/ATT, and Yards per Attempt, with sacks, rushing attempts and fumbles factored into the equation as well. For my numbers, a fumble counts as 1/2 of a turnover whether the offense ends up giving the ball away or not, as sometimes you have scenarios where a guy fumbles 15 times but never loses possession, while a guy who only fumbles 5 times and loses possession every time should not be punished more for variance. Any ties on my list are sorted by Yards per Attempt, as I find that is the best measure of determining a winning QB.

We started week 1 with 3 absurdly impressive performances for QB's who had a lot to live up to with the season looming. Lamar Jackson was treated as just a runningback trying to play QB, Dak Prescott decided to bet on himself and go for a big contract rather than take a midlevel deal, and Patrick Mahomes needed to silence the doubters that he couldn't repeat an MVP caliber season. All of them have made great strides in silencing that narrative. The big stories otherwise include Kirk Cousins failing to qualify on attempts in a win, Gardner Minshew coming out of nowhere and looking like a beast against the Chiefs defense, and business as usual for Tom Brady and Drew Brees who are once again playing at a high caliber in their 40's. As this is week 1, there is still lots of room for these numbers to vary wildly, so take the early rankings with a grain of salt. They really don't start to form an accurate picture until the midway mark of the season, so keep that in mind.

Week 1 Rankings

1. Dak Prescott 13
2. Lamar Jackson 14
3. Patrick Mahomes 17
4. Tom Brady 29
5. Derek Carr 30
6. Case Keenum 34
7. Carson Wentz 36
8. Gardner Minshew 41
9. Marcus Mariota 47
10. Drew Brees 49
11. Russell Wilson 52
12. Jacoby Brissett 54
13. Philip Rivers 55
14. Deshaun Watson 55


15. Eli Manning 65
16. Matthew Stafford 66
17. Joe Flacco 66
18. Andy Dalton 69
19. Matt Ryan 74
20. Josh Allen 74
21. Jimmy Garoppolo 82
22. Aaron Rodgers 83
23. Sam Darnold 88
24. Kyler Murray 92
25. Ryan Fitzpatrick 93
26. Cam Newton 94
27. Baker Mayfield 97
28. Ben Roeth 99
29. Jared Goff 100
30. Mitch Trubisky 104
31. Jameis Winston 112

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Gardner "Top Ten QB" Minshew.

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enjoy it while it lasts.

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On 9/11/2019 at 8:15 PM, RazorStar said:

enjoy it while it lasts.

Should be lasting another week. If not, your rankings are bad.

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2019 QB Rankings Week 2
1. Lamar Jackson 10 (+1)
2. Dak Prescott 14 (-1)
3. Patrick Mahomes 15
4. Tom Brady 22
5. Russell Wilson 28 (+6)
6. Case Keenum 34
7. Jimmy Garoppolo 48 (+14)
8. Gardner Minshew 54
9. Matthew Stafford 57 (+7)
10. Marcus Mariota 57 (-1)
11. Drew Brees 58 (-1)


12. Jacoby Brissett 63
13. Josh Allen 64 (+7)
14. Carson Wentz 66 (-7)
15. Philip Rivers 67 (-2)
16. Derek Carr 69 (-11)
17. Joe Flacco 69
18. Andy Dalton 71
19. Deshaun Watson 73 (-5)
20. Aaron Rodgers 74 (+2)
21. Jared Goff 77 (+8)


22. Matt Ryan 81 (-3)
23. Kirk Cousins 83 (NR)
24. Sam Darnold 83 (-1)
25. Kyler Murray 89 (-1)
26. Eli Manning 90 (-11)
27. Baker Mayfield 95
28. Mitch Trubisky 96 (+2)
29. Jameis Winston 102 (+2)
30. Teddy Bridgewater 102 (NR)
31. Cam Newton 104 (-5)
32. Ben Roeth 105 (-4)
33. Ryan Fitzpatrick 124 (-8)

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Early season qb rankings are the best. 

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Week 3 QB Rankings

1. Patrick Mahomes 13 (+2)
2. Dak Prescott 16
3. Tom Brady 21 (+1)
4. Russell Wilson 21 (+1)
5. Lamar Jackson 27 (-4)

6. Gardner Minshew 45 (+2)
7. Jacoby Brissett 46 (+5)
8. Deshaun Watson 50 (+11)
9. Drew Brees 54 (+2)
10. Jimmy Garoppolo 56 (-3)
11. Matthew Stafford 60 (-2)
12. Matt Ryan 61 (+10)
13. Philip Rivers 65 (+2)
14. Carson Wentz 65
15. Case Keenum 66 (-9)
16. Derek Carr 71
17. Kirk Cousins 73 (+6)
18. Teddy Bridgewater 74 (+12)
19. Aaron Rodgers 76 (+1)
20. Josh Allen 77 (-7)
21. Andy Dalton 79 (-3)
22. Marcus Mariota 82 (-12)
23. Jared Goff 85 (-2)

24. Jameis Winston 89 (+5)
25. Joe Flacco 89 (-8)
26. Mason Rudolph 89 (NR)
27. Mitch Trubisky 90 (+1)
28. Eli Manning 98 (-2)
29. Kyler Murray 99 (-4)
30. Luke Falk 99 (NR)
31. Cam Newton 107
32. Baker Mayfield 109 (-5)
33. Ben Roeth 110 (-1)
34. Josh Rosen 126 (NR)
35. Ryan Fitzpatrick 132 (-2)

 

It's a bit too early to say anything concise about this list, but it does look like Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are well on their way to duking it out for supremacy of both the AFC, and the MVP title. Following close behind are a few surprises and the ever steadfast Russell Wilson. Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott are currently rounding out the top 5, which is not something I thought I'd be saying this early into the season. However, three of these top five quarterbacks have had games against the Miami Dolphins, and they seem to be making an effort to try and be the worst team in NFL History.

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Week 4 QB Rankings:

1. Patrick Mahomes 15
2. Russell Wilson 17 (+2)
3. Dak Prescott 20 (-1)
4. Lamar Jackson 25 (+1)


5. Mason Rudolph 47 (+21)
6. Philip Rivers 50 (+7)
7. Daniel Jones 50 (NR)
8. Gardner Minshew 51 (-2)
9. Jacoby Brissett 52 (-2)
10. Jimmy Garoppolo 53
11. Tom Brady 53 (-8)
12. Kyle Allen 55 (NR)
13. Matthew Stafford 59 (-2)
14. Carson Wentz 60
15. Matt Ryan 66 (-3)
16. Marcus Mariota 66 (+6)
17. Deshaun Watson 66 (-9)
18. Derek Carr 66 (-2)
19. Aaron Rodgers 69
20. Jameis Winston 73 (+4)


21. Case Keenum 79 (-6)
22. Joe Flacco 83 (+3)
23. Teddy Bridgewater 84 (-5)
24. Jared Goff 88 (-1)
25. Mitch Trubisky 91 (+2)
26. Kirk Cousins 93 (-9)
27. Josh Allen 97 (-7)
28. Eli Manning 97
29. Baker Mayfield 99 (+3)
30. Kyler Murray 102 (-1)
31. Andy Dalton 107 (-10)
32. Cam Newton 109 (-1)
33. Ben Roeth 113
34. Josh Rosen 125

 

There are still quite a few dramatic moves this early in the season, as a lot of the players in the top 5 or so had their worst games of the fledgling season. Brady, Dalton, Cousins and DeShaun Watson are the big droppers this week, while Mason Rudolph, Philip Rivers and Marcus Mariota surge ahead a few spots in their absence. Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen also make their first appearances on this list, as Brees, Fitzpatrick and Luke Falk take a temporary reprieve from the rankings. The real question on everyone's minds is how long can Gardner Minshew stay among the top 10?

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So... one week performances still mean a lot this early on. There was a lot of movement this week, and we have a new number one QB in the mix. If I can recall, this is the first time Dangeruss has ever been number one on my efficiency rankings, he usually just skirted the top 5-10 most of the time. Deshaun Watson has taken a spot above Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford jumped 7 spots by virtue of having a bye week.

 

Week 5 QB Rankings

1. Russell Wilson 7 (+1)
2. Deshaun Watson 26 (+15)
3. Patrick Mahomes 28 (-2)
4. Dak Prescott 30 (-1)
5. Lamar Jackson 45 (-1)
6. Matthew Stafford 48 (+7)
7. Jimmy Garoppolo 49 (+3)
8. Tom Brady 49 (+3)
9. Mason Rudolph 49 (-4)
10. Gardner Minshew 52 (-2)
11. Teddy Bridgewater 55 (+12)
12. Matt Ryan 56 (+3)
13. Jacoby Brissett 57 (-4)
14. Derek Carr 62 (+4)
15. Carson Wentz 64 (-1)
16. Philip Rivers 65 (-10)
17. Kirk Cousins 67 (+9)


18. Marcus Mariota 70 (-2)
19. Jameis Winston 73 (+1)
20. Kyle Allen 73 (-8)
21. Aaron Rodgers 75 (-2)
22. Case Keenum 80 (-1)
23. Daniel Jones 81 (-16)
24. Joe Flacco 84 (-2)
25. Jared Goff 87 (-1)
26. Mitch Trubisky 87 (-1)
27. Kyler Murray 89 (+3)
28. Andy Dalton 96 (+3)
29. Josh Allen 97 (-2)
30. Eli Manning 103 (-2)
31. Cam Newton 105 (+1)
32. Baker Mayfield 112 (-3)
33. Josh Rosen 126 (+1)
34. Luke Falk 133 (NR)

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The rise of the dual threat QB

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The fun times are gonna be over after this week.

:welp:

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Uncle Rico stops for no man.

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Anyway, I didn't feel like making a new topic for it, but I've been working on something on the side. I wanted to create a metric that determined how effective offenses were with a certain person under center. Drives can only end so many different ways. A Touchdown, a field goal attempt, a punt, a turnover, a turnover on downs, the end of a half or a safety. I wanted to see just how often those circumstances came up depending on who was playing. Which offenses were punt prone? Which quarterbacks were the unluckiest, and which QB's turned it over the most by their own design? It's still a very rough idea, but so far, I've come up with this.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dN5KoykXE7sk6QqngBysr58SKGpo8Y30h99_pDpV3qg/edit?usp=sharing

The weighting for success rate is basically: Touchdowns = 1, Field Goals = 0.5, Missed Field Goals = -0.5, Punts = -0.5, QB Turnover = -1, Turnover on Downs = -1, Safety = -2, And turnovers by other skill positions or kneel down situations at end of halves were not counted towards it.

Some interesting things to note, at least early on:

Jimmy G has had the worst luck so far, having 8 of his 49 drives end on either missed field goals, or turnovers by other skill position players. Despite that, he's been one of the more successful operators otherwise.

Luke Falk is the king of punts, having 2/3rds of his drives end in such a fashion. The other players with at least 5 drives a game with over half their drives ending in punts are Marcus Mariota (56.36%), Mitch Trubisky (53.33%), and Aaron Rodgers (50.88%)

A success rate of 0% according to this, isn't the middle of the pack. It's probably a matter of the way my weighting system is designed, but the average actually tends to be around -5% or so. 

 

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Well it's another week down, and we're starting to see some patterns forming. The top 3-5 or so are starting to get set in stone with great performance week after week, and it is truly looking like the age of the dual threat QB, with Russell Wilson, Mahomes, Watson, Prescott and Jackson securing the top 5 spots. However as expected, as the rest of the league drops off with poor performances, you can see Tom Brady is slowly trying to sneak his way into the top 5 once again. Matt Ryan had an incredible performance, only to see it wasted by his defense. I'm sure if I looked at the boost the Falcons defense was giving players over the season it'd measure out as the worst defense this season. Kirk Cousins slaughtered the Eagles to jump 9 spots, Kyler torched the Dirty Birds to move up 7 spots, and Josh Allen rode the bye week to jump up 5 whole spots. On the flip side we had quite a few drops. Matt Stafford was disparaged by the offense kicking nothing but field goals on monday night to drop 6, The Saints had all of the answers for Gardner Minshew as he dropped to the middle of the pack. Jameis Winston threw 5 picks and had a fumble in a London Loss to the Panthers, and Daniel Jones kept his downward slide going against the vaunted Patriots Defense.

 

Week 6 QB Rankings:

1. Russell Wilson 6
2. Patrick Mahomes 24 (+1)
3. Deshaun Watson 30 (-1)
4. Dak Prescott 31
5. Lamar Jackson 38
6. Matt Ryan 41 (+6)
7. Tom Brady 44 (+1)
8. Kirk Cousins 47 (+9)
9. Mason Rudolph 51
10. Jimmy Garoppolo 54 (-3)
11. Jacoby Brissett 57 (+2)
12. Matthew Stafford 58 (-6)
13. Carson Wentz 58 (+2)
14. Teddy Bridgewater 58 (-3)
15. Derek Carr 59 (-1)
16. Gardner Minshew 65 (-6)
17. Aaron Rodgers 66 (+4)
18. Philip Rivers 67 (-2)
19. Kyle Allen 67 (+1)
20. Kyler Murray 69 (+7)
21. Case Keenum 70 (-1)

22. Joe Flacco 85 (+2)
23. Marcus Mariota 85 (-5)
24. Josh Allen 89 (+5)
25. Jameis Winston 90 (-6)
26. Mitch Trubisky 91
27. Jared Goff 97 (-2)
28. Daniel Jones 100 (-5)
29. Eli Manning 103 (+1)
30. Andy Dalton 103 (-2)
31. Cam Newton 105
32. Baker Mayfield 109
33. Josh Rosen 127

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No Fun League is back.

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Good news everyone! Kirk Cousins is dominating the league in efficiency again. All is right with the world again! Bad news. Matt Ryan drops six spots, breaks his ankle, and we had Matt Schaub play in an actual football game for the first time in nearly 6 years. More good news, Aaron Rodgers surged up 11 spots after beating the stuffing out of the [Location] Raiders, and Kyle Allen got to jump up 6 spots on his bye week. The 2018 rookie class is looking like a very mixed bag, with Lamar Jackson being the only member in the top 20, while Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield are all swirling the tank. YOU ALL CAN'T GET TUA.

 

Week 7 QB Rankings:

1. Russell Wilson 13
2. Patrick Mahomes 19
3. Dak Prescott 26 (+1)
4. Kirk Cousins 30 (+4)
5. Deshaun Watson 30 (-2)
6. Aaron Rodgers 35 (+11)
7. Lamar Jackson 40 (-2)
8. Matthew Stafford 47 (+4)
9. Tom Brady 49 (-2)
10. Jacoby Brissett 49 (+1)
11. Derek Carr 50 (+4)
12. Matt Ryan 53 (-6)
13. Kyle Allen 56 (+6)
14. Jimmy Garoppolo 58 (-4)
15. Teddy Bridgewater 58 (-1)
16. Carson Wentz 59 (-3)
17. Philip Rivers 61 (+1)
18. Gardner Minshew 67 (-2)
19. Kyler Murray 69 (+1)
20. Case Keenum 70 (+1)

21. Josh Allen 78 (+3)
22. Marcus Mariota 82 (+1)
23. Mitch Trubisky 82 (+3)
24. Jameis Winston 84 (+1)
25. Jared Goff 85 (+2)

26. Joe Flacco 103 (-4)
27. Andy Dalton 103 (+3)
28. Daniel Jones 103
29. Ryan Fitzpatrick 104 (NR)
30. Baker Mayfield 108 (+2)
31. Sam Darnold 119 (NR)
32. Josh Rosen 122 (+1)

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Bad week for the Allens, but other than that, there wasn't a lot of movement this week. Derek Carr, Jared Goff and Daniel Jones all tie for our highest risers going up 4 spots, while Josh Allen drops 5 after getting handled by the Eagles, and Kyle Allen drops 16 spots after getting utterly exposed by the 49ers defense. I was interested to see what the Panthers were when they faced a good team, and this is the result. 

Week 8 QB Rankings

1. Russell Wilson 14
2. Patrick Mahomes 20
3. Kirk Cousins 28 (+1)
4. Dak Prescott 29 (-1)
5. Deshaun Watson 30
6. Aaron Rodgers 31
7. Derek Carr 38 (+4)
8. Matthew Stafford 41
9. Lamar Jackson 41 (-2)
10. Jacoby Brissett 49
11. Tom Brady 50 (-2)
12. Matt Ryan 55
13. Mason Rudolph 57
14. Jimmy Garoppolo 60
15. Carson Wentz 60 (+1)
16. Teddy Bridgewater 60 (-1)
17. Philip Rivers 63
18. Gardner Minshew 64


19. Kyler Murray 73
20. Case Keenum 75
21. Jared Goff 82 (+4)
22. Marcus Mariota 85
23. Mitch Trubisky 86
24. Daniel Jones 89 (+4)
25. Jameis Winston 93 (-1)
26. Josh Allen 93 (-5)
27. Joe Flacco 102 (-1)
28. Andy Dalton 103 (-1)
29. Kyle Allen 103 (-16)
30. Baker Mayfield 109
31. Ryan Fitzpatrick 112 (-2)
32. Sam Darnold 122 (-1)
33. Josh Rosen 127 (-1)

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And just to indulge my curiosity, I wanted to see if I could determine the best pass defenses in the league by just how much a player drops or rises when facing off against them. We've only got half a season of data, but I like what I have for results so far. 

F2qX3KQ.png

Week 1 numbers are based on treating every player as 16th place before the game, and finding out how much the defenses kept them in check in those games. N/A's are games where the opposing QB didn't qualify for attempts, and BYEs should be self explanatory.

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There wasn't a lot of big shifts in the rankings this week, the cream continued to rise, and the shit continued to settle at the bottom of the toilet bowl. The biggest falls this week are Daniel Jones after having a three turnover performance against the Cowboys, and Mason Rudolph who had to play a tough game against a gritty Colts defense. The largest risers on the other hand are Jimmy Garoppolo after his amazing performance against the Cardinals on thursday night, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, who willed the Dolphins to victory against a team that may just actually be worse than them in the Jets. We've still got half a season to go, but it's looking like early on that the real front runner for best QB is mister horseshoe in his ass himself, Russell Wilson. The battle for second place will be pretty interesting too, once Mahomes recovers from his injury. No offense to Matt Moore, who is playing well in relief duty, but Mahomes makes magic happen.

 

Week 9 QB Rankings

1. Russell Wilson 14
2. Patrick Mahomes 22
3. Deshaun Watson 26 (+2)
4. Dak Prescott 28
5. Kirk Cousins 29 (-2)
6. Derek Carr 35 (+1)
7. Lamar Jackson 36 (+2)
8. Aaron Rodgers 41 (-2)
9. Matthew Stafford 45 (-1)
10. Jimmy Garoppolo 48 (+4)
11. Jacoby Brissett 51 (-1)
12. Ryan Tannehill 56 (NR)
13. Matt Ryan 58 (-1)
14. Tom Brady 61 (-3)
15. Philip Rivers 64 (+2)
16. Carson Wentz 64 (-1)
17. Teddy Bridgewater 64 (-1)
18. Mason Rudolph 66 (-5)
19. Kyler Murray 70


20. Gardner Minshew 77 (-2)
21. Case Keenum 79 (-1)
22. Jared Goff 85 (-1)
23. Marcus Mariota 88 (-1)
24. Josh Allen 91 (+2)
25. Mitch Trubisky 94 (-2)
26. Jameis Winston 95 (-1)
27. Ryan Fitzpatrick 102 (+4)
28. Andy Dalton 104
29. Daniel Jones 104 (-5)
30. Joe Flacco 105 (-3)
31. Kyle Allen 109 (-2)
32. Baker Mayfield 114 (-2)
33. Sam Darnold 123 (-1)
34. Josh Rosen 132 (-1)

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Week 10 is in the books, and all of the undefeated teams have fallen. The MVP race seems to be heating up as well, as my three favourites for the race are currently hoarding the top 3 spots. There weren't much in the way of big risers this week, as Drew Brees returning to the top 10 meant the rest of list shifted down just a little bit. However, big props to Lamar Jackson for completely invalidating the Bengals existence as he picked up his second perfect passer rating of the season. On the negative side, Jimmy G dropped 7 spots after facing down a stout Seahawks defenses in his first loss of the season. Philip Rivers dropped 5 spots as the Oakland Raiders defense figured him out and made him throw 3 picks that could have easily been 5 or 6. Lastly Jared Goff deserves a lot of credit for being most of the opposition team's reasons for scoring, and finding his favourite target Minkah Fitzpatrick more often than Cooper Kupp.

 

Week 10 QB Rankings:

1. Russell Wilson 15
2. Patrick Mahomes 20
3. Lamar Jackson 25 (+4)
4. Kirk Cousins 27 (+1)
5. Deshaun Watson 29 (-2)
6. Dak Prescott 30 (-2)
7. Derek Carr 41 (-1)
8. Aaron Rodgers 45
9. Matthew Stafford 46
10. Drew Brees 50 (NR)
11. Jacoby Brissett 52
12. Ryan Tannehill 53
13. Matt Ryan 59
14. Teddy Bridgewater 60 (+3)
15. Tom Brady 63 (-1)
16. Carson Wentz 67
17. Jimmy Garoppolo 69 (-7)
18. Kyler Murray 69 (+1)
19. Mason Rudolph 70 (-1)
20. Philip Rivers 75 (-5)
21. Gardner Minshew 78 (-1)
22. Case Keenum 79 (-1)

23. Josh Allen 92 (+1)
24. Marcus Mariota 95 (-1)
25. Mitch Trubisky 96
26. Jameis Winston 99
27. Jared Goff 100 (-5)
28. Daniel Jones 101 (+1)
29. Joe Flacco 107 (+1)
30. Ryan Fitzpatrick 110 (-3)
31. Kyle Allen 110
32. Andy Dalton 112 (-4)
33. Baker Mayfield 116 (-1)
34. Sam Darnold 122 (-1)
35. Josh Rosen 138 (-1)

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How many attempts is it gonna take for Foles to place?

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it's still something like 93 or so. He only threw 7 times before the Chiefs wrecked him.

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