2014 Prospects- Who ya got?

[Attyla the Hawk 197]

It's not particularly deep. Going in, there are maybe 2 guys considered first round type players.

 

It looks like it could be a 2009/2010 type draft class. Over under for 1st rounders probably at 2.5. Probably one QB will have a breakout year and possibly crash the party.

 

If you're picking in the teens, you'll likely have to look at getting another Ponder-like prospect again and hope that he develops after he's on the team better than the guy you took in 2011.

 

The problem you'll face, is that the demand for QBs is going to increase sharply in 2014. A great many teams are going to be reintroduced to the QB feeding trough:

 

Likely picking early:

 

1. Jacksonville

2. Tennessee (same situation as Minnesota)

3. Cleveland

4. Arizona

5. Oakland

6. Philadelphia

 

Likely middle third picks:

 

1. New Orleans

2. Pittsburgh

3. Minnesota

4. Kansas City

 

Likely picking late

 

1. New England

2. Denver

3. Houston

4. Green Bay

 

 

There are a number of teams that are in the market or in Minnesota's predicament. Most will not take a first round QB. But a lot would take a 2nd round guy. Many on this list have taken multiple day 3 QBs in the last 4 years and predictably failed (Philadelphia, Arizona, Cleveland). These teams have been looking to solve their long term QB situation for half a decade. The fact they are all consistently floundering in the bottom 10 of the NFL year in and year out is no coincidence. I would expect all of these teams to take a QB if one is a first round grade if they were smart. Of course, these franchises are where they are for a reason. So they just as likely won't.

 

Beyond the needy teams though, there are a whole host of top tier clubs who have been neglecting the QB position for a long time. Teams who are generally forward thinking. Teams who probably can't afford to keep letting the Daltons/Kaepernicks/Freemans of the draft slide on by their board and maintain their quality of play.

 

Green Bay is a team that likes to pick QBs every other year or so. They've departed from this since they drafted Flynn/Brohm. Coleman was picked last year, but I think regardless if he beats Graham Harrell out -- I think Green Bay will be looking to get another Aaron Rodgers type prospect on the roster. Harrell or Coleman to be the primary back up. Some stud prospect to ride pine. Not saying they will. But I do think the 'clock' on whether to take a QB in round 1 to develop has started. The Packers understand that you can't wait until you need a QB to be in the market. If a round 1 quality guy hits their pick I think they'll take it in any of the next 3-5 years.

 

There are a lot of teams that should be in the market. Not just the desperate enough to reach type teams. But a lot of hedge/insurance teams. Look at the risk/return of 2nd day and 3rd day picks. Teams can (actually almost assuredly DO) go 5+ years of taking guys in that range with nothing to show for it. These next 4 drafts are going to be key to whether perennial powers like Denver/New England/New Orleans/Pittsburgh stay in contention or tear it all down and rebuild from scratch.

 

Minnesota is going to have company if they decide they need to move on. It looks like close to half the league could be in the market for QBs in the first 4 rounds. And it's probably only going to get worse over the next 3 seasons.

[KempBolt 498]

This question is directed at Kemp/Sampson:

 

Is the 2014 draft class deep with quarterback talent? I have skepticism about whether Ponder will deliver or not, which makes me think this may be his last year and we will end up in the teens for next year's draft. Are there some solid QB talents that could make a different within a few years that we could pick up in the mid-first round?

 

I would say yes, it's relatively deep. Especially compared to last season. My very preliminary tiers of QB's for 2014 look like this:

 

Tier 1: Guys who can be considered legit candidates for the #1 overall pick.

 

-Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville: He stands all by himself at the top IMO. Has that rare combination of acumen, arm talent, and athelticism. He's tough, he's smart, he's accurate, and he beats you first and foremost from the pocket. If he shows progress in 2013, then he may be the best QB prospect I've seen this decade not named Andrew Luck.

 

Tier 2: Top 16 picks.

 

-Tajh Boyd, Clemson: Solid athlete and a really great deep ball thrower. His touch on passes 15+ yards down the field is rare for a college QB. If he can tighten up his delivery, I think he goes top 5.

 

-A.J. McCarron, Alabama: Unfairly compared to previous game manager types at Alabama. Love the accuracy and ball placement. Concerns about arm strength are overblown- doesn't possess a canon, but neither do a lot of great NFL QB's.

 

Tier 3: Guys who probably go late 1st or 2nd round, but could vault with a good season.

 

-Stephen Morris, Miami: Always had the size, arm, and athletic ability, but the mental side of the game needed to show up. Seemed to start happening for him late in 2012 and expected progress could really get him noticed in 2013.

 

-Bryn Renner, UNC: Very underrated passer who has made all of the progressions expected of him. Looks on track for the 1st round to me.

 

-Derek Carr, Fr. State: Great numbers and performance so far. Will need to prove in predraft work that level of competition isn't a factor.

 

-Aaron Murray, Georgia: Excellent arm talent who needs to become a better decision make for 1st round consideration.

 

-Johnny Manziel, Texas AM: Needs to show more ability from the pocket and not just as a scrambler, but he has the arm. Maturity concerns are mounting. He definitely has the widest range of possible draft slots- anywhere from high first to mid-round IMO.

 

Tier 4: Likely post 2nd round players who could make great projects.

 

-David Fales, SJSU: Timing and accuracy are very good traits. Arm strength a concern.

 

-Logan Thomas, Va. Tech: Surpremely talented, but has a ton of ground to make up on the mental side of the game.

 

-Zach Mettenberger, LSU: Production inexplicably bad given his talent and the bevvy of good supporting players around him.

 

-Pete Thomas, N.C. State: A sleeper favorite of mine. Legit NFL talent who had to sit out a year after transferring from Colorado State.

[OSUViking 505]

Given that list, which do you think would be a good fit for the Vikings if Ponder fails?

[KempBolt 498]

Given that list, which do you think would be a good fit for the Vikings if Ponder fails?

 

Bridgewater is the obvious answer for anyone that needs a QB.

 

But asides from him, I'd say Boyd, Morris, or Murray. I think the Vikings should prioritize deep ball accuracy, because that would be very useful in a PA heavy passing attack.

Edited July 17, 2013 by KempBolt

[KempBolt 498]

Validating to see someone who knows much more than I do voice the same concerns over Van Noy:

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/cfb/131849/kyle-van-noy

 

NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah lists BYU senior OLB Kyle Van Noy as the 48th best player in college football.When considering where other evaluators list Van Noy, typically in the top 20 draft-eligible prospects, this is a bit of a surprise (but not in a negative way). "Van Noy has a lot of "on-air" production (but he is) 236 lbs and not very strong," Jeremiah tweeted. "I didn't see a dynamic pass rusher... more of a blitzer. He's better suited to play off the line of scrimmage."

 

Unless his game is drastically different in 2013, I think Van Noy is going to need to play 4-3 OLB.

[KempBolt 498]

Given that list, which do you think would be a good fit for the Vikings if Ponder fails?

 

Here are Daniel Jeremiah's top 5 senior QB's if you're interested:

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/cfb/130806/aj-mccarron

 

NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah ranks Alabama's A.J. McCarron as the No. 2 senior QB.McCarron comes in behind Clemson's Tajh Boyd, who is listed at No. 20 overall. McCarron, No. 26 overall, just hedges out UNC's Bryn Renner at No. 27. Fresno State's Derek Carr checks in at No. 32 with San Jose State's David Fales at No. 33. We are very surprised that Miami's Stephen Morris was not included.

 

I really like Jeremiah because he has NFL scouting experience and he won't rate a player unless he's actually watched him play (as opposed to Kiper and McShay, who give "reports" on everybody and some of them they obviously have never watched play football).

 

I'm not surprised that he left Morris off. Most of the optimism over him is due to his stellar final 4 games of the season, but on the whole he was hit and miss last year. If he picks up the way he left off, I'm sure he'll make future lists.

 

http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/player/415/1032640/passing/gamelog.html

[Piggly Wiggly 960]

Tier 2: Top 16 picks.

-A.J. McCarron, Alabama: Unfairly compared to previous game manager types at Alabama. Love the accuracy and ball placement. Concerns about arm strength are overblown- doesn't possess a canon, but neither do a lot of great NFL QB's.

 

McCarron isn't John Parker Wilson, but he's not exactly miles ahead (in terms of talent) of Greg McElroy. He is a game manager, just a glorified one, though. Not sure how the fuck he was considered a Heisman candidate at one point last season... guess that's what happens when the Bama hype is out of control.

 

Bottom line, he's a 3rd/4th round pick at best.

[KempBolt 498]

 

McCarron isn't John Parker Wilson, but he's not exactly miles ahead (in terms of talent) of Greg McElroy. He is a game manager, just a glorified one, though. Not sure how the fuck he was considered a Heisman candidate at one point last season... guess that's what happens when the Bama hype is out of control.

 

Bottom line, he's a 3rd/4th round pick at best.

 

I disagree. His arm strength is merely OK, but his accuracy, ball placement, anticipation, pocket presence and progressions are way ahead of both of those guys. If he continues to make progress as a senior after losing 3 first round offensive lineman, I think he'll be solidly in the 1st round conversation and has a chance to be a good starter at the next level. Here's McCarron's junior season held up against McElroy's:

 

221/314, 67.2%, 2933 yards, 9.3 YPA, 30 TD, 3 INT's

 

198/325, 60.9%, 2508 yards, 7.7 YPA, 17 TD, 4 INT's

 

I think that the "game manager" label will be lazily applied to him by a lot of people who just remember the last couple QB's to come out of the program. The tape tells a different story.

[OSUViking 505]

Thanks for the input on the QBs, guys. I have another question:

 

I recently purchased a Sports Illustrated: Big Ten Edition from the store to read the Gopher section. Here's what they had to say about Gopher NT Ra'shede Hageman (Senior).

 

"The senior's combination of raw talent and unchecked passion makes him the most feared playmaker on Minnesota's defense and a likely first-round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft."

 

What are your takes on that? Are they exaggerating? Is he still a potential starter in the future, and possibly an early rounder?

 

Also, they brought up that Minnesota had the 12th ranked pass defense in the nation last year. Obviously, this was likely because of a pathetically weak schedule, but it also shows we do have some talent in our secondary; they brought up two key players: Brock Vereen and Derrick Wells. Could anyone analyze these two and project what round they would go in?

[KempBolt 498]

I haven't watched any Golden Gopher games in a while. But I have Hageman ear marked as a guy I want to see, so whenever that happens I'll tell you what I think. I can tell you that that magazine you were reading is def not the only publication that really likes him.

[OSUViking 505]

I haven't watched any Golden Gopher games in a while. But I have Hageman ear marked as a guy I want to see, so whenever that happens I'll tell you what I think. I can tell you that that magazine you were reading is def not the only publication that really likes him.

 

Holy shit; someone from the Gophers potentially being noticed!

[KempBolt 498]

Holy shit; someone from the Gophers potentially being noticed!

 

Eric Decker all over again.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

QBs for me:

 

Tier 1

 

• Teddy Bridgewater, LOU

 

Tier 2

 

• David Fales, SJSU

 

• Tajh Boyd, CLE

 

Tier 3

 

• Stephen Morris, MIA

 

• Bryn Renner, UNC

 

Tier 4

 

• Marcus Mariota, ORE

 

• A.J. McCarron, ALA

 

• Johnny Manziel, TAM

 

Tier 5

 

• Aaron Murray, UGA

 

• Zach Mettenberger, LSU

 

• Tyler Russell, MSU

 

• Jeff Mathews, COR

 

• Keith Price, UW

 

Tier 6

 

• Logan Thomas, VT

 

• Derek Carr, FrSt

 

So if the Vikings are picking in the teens, picking up a Stephen Morris would be great. If teams let Fales fall, that'd be an absolute steal. I'm not worried about Fales' arm strength because it's an easily fixable mechanics issue. He doesn't rotate his trunk, thus not using his body when he throws so he's essentially been throwing with all arm to this point. Much how Aaron Rodgers fixed a mechanics issue to suddenly increase "arm strength", Fales can do the same.

 

Oh yeah, Derek Carr is bust city. Can't believe people are hyping this guy. Blaine Gabbert 2.0. Jittery QB, poor footwork, no poise, zero pocket awareness. He can get on a roll sporadically with first read passes, but all in all, no shot in the NFL imo.

[BJORN 679]

-Zach Mettenberger, LSU: Production inexplicably bad given his talent and the bevvy of good supporting players around him.

He should (better) be good this year...LSU is loaded at WR.

Edited July 20, 2013 by BJORN

[Attyla the Hawk 197]

Thanks for the input on the QBs, guys. I have another question:

 

I recently purchased a Sports Illustrated: Big Ten Edition from the store to read the Gopher section. Here's what they had to say about Gopher NT Ra'shede Hageman (Senior).

 

"The senior's combination of raw talent and unchecked passion makes him the most feared playmaker on Minnesota's defense and a likely first-round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft."

 

What are your takes on that? Are they exaggerating? Is he still a potential starter in the future, and possibly an early rounder?

 

 

Most DTs really come into their own in their senior year. Not unlike offensive linemen.

 

Right now, I'd have to say he's probably in the 50 to 75 overall range. He can go up or down from there pretty dramatically

 

Few notes I have on him:

 

1. Quick off the snap. He's got explosive quickness. Frequently the first player out of his stance.

2. Good pursuit and drive

3. Good anchor. Able to take on double teams and hold ground.

4. Good pad level.

5. Explosive power/bull rush

 

Things that worry:

 

1. Explosive get off doesn't produce any advantage. He needs to improve his hand/arm fighting. He gets into his guy and then just gets stuck there.

2. Lack of idea of what to do. His technique is not developed. He has a good bull rush, but nothing else.

3. Needs to have more awareness. He is befuddled by misdirection and on many occasions seems to pick a gap only to open a running lane.

 

 

He has great athleticism. I honestly think he'd make a good end or 3 technique. He can completely overpower players with his strength and leverage. But in order to do that he needs to develop other aspects of his game. Right now he's like a pitcher that can throw high 90s but has no curve or changeup. His ability to stuff a double team makes him a NT in college. But he shows more effectiveness in space. Particularly if he can get a couple steps into a rush before unleashing his bull rush move.

 

This is a big year for him. Physically, he's a first round talent no question. Skill wise he isn't. He shows a lot of Sheldon Richardson -- fiery competitor who makes a lot of plays downfield in pursuit. He doesn't have Richardson's skills however. In my opinion, he has a higher ceiling than Sheldon, but his floor is comparatively low at this point. He is a bigger/faster prospect than Richardson. But he needs to add technique. At this point, he can't separate/disengage from blocks and that precludes him from the first round discussion for most teams.

 

He's a guy to watch closely. DTs often pop late. He could easily make a bit for top 10 if he refines his game and can produce as a pass rusher.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

QBs for me:

 

Tier 1

 

• Teddy Bridgewater, LOU

 

Tier 2

 

• David Fales, SJSU

 

• Tajh Boyd, CLE

 

Tier 3

 

• Stephen Morris, MIA

 

• Bryn Renner, UNC

 

Tier 4

 

• Marcus Mariota, ORE

 

• A.J. McCarron, ALA

 

• Johnny Manziel, TAM

 

Tier 5

 

• Aaron Murray, UGA

 

• Zach Mettenberger, LSU

 

• Tyler Russell, MSU

 

• Jeff Mathews, COR

 

• Keith Price, UW

 

Tier 6

 

• Logan Thomas, VT

 

• Derek Carr, FrSt

 

So if the Vikings are picking in the teens, picking up a Stephen Morris would be great. If teams let Fales fall, that'd be an absolute steal. I'm not worried about Fales' arm strength because it's an easily fixable mechanics issue. He doesn't rotate his trunk, thus not using his body when he throws so he's essentially been throwing with all arm to this point. Much how Aaron Rodgers fixed a mechanics issue to suddenly increase "arm strength", Fales can do the same.

 

Oh yeah, Derek Carr is bust city. Can't believe people are hyping this guy. Blaine Gabbert 2.0. Jittery QB, poor footwork, no poise, zero pocket awareness. He can get on a roll sporadically with first read passes, but all in all, no shot in the NFL imo.

 

 

You might as well combine tier 4 with tier 5. Lol.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Dug a lil deeper and got a little higher or lower on some guys. Updated list:

 

Tier 1

 

• Teddy Bridgewater, LOU

 

Tier 2

 

• David Fales, SJSU

 

• Stephen Morris, MIA

 

• Tajh Boyd, CLE

 

Tier 3

 

• Marcus Mariota, ORE

 

• A.J. McCarron, ALA

 

• Johnny Manziel, TAM

 

• Jeff Mathews, COR

 

Tier 4

 

• Bryn Renner, UNC

 

• Aaron Murray, UGA

 

• Zach Mettenberger, LSU

 

• Tyler Russell, MSU

 

• Keith Price, UW

 

• Brett Hundley, UCLA

 

Tier 5

 

• Logan Thomas, VT

 

• Derek Carr, FrSt

[OSUViking 505]

Where would Braxton Miller fit if he were to declare?

[Bay 2,003]

Where would Braxton Miller fit if he were to declare?

 

Tier 4 at best.

[McTater 28]

Josh Stewart, Wr. Oklahoma State.

 

Not for sure he'll come out a year early, but if he does I see him going in the second round.

 

 

Kid has pure speed.

 

 

He kind of reminds me of Percy Harvin.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Miller is in a tough spot because I don't see him going any higher then 4th if he declares this year. He's got the physical tools of a superstar but he just isn't that good of a QB. The issue with him is all mental... And footwork...

 

But if he goes back to school for his senior year he's gonna be coached by a known pro QB coach killer.

 

Either way he'd need an insane amount of work/help to become anything other then another great college QB to flop in the NFL.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Made a mistake on my update, had Aaron Murray and McCarron mixed up, and forgot to add Devin Gardner and Blake Bortles:

 

Tier 1

 

• Teddy Bridgewater, LOU

 

Tier 2

 

• David Fales, SJSU

 

• Stephen Morris, MIA

 

• Tajh Boyd, CLE

 

Tier 3

 

• Marcus Mariota, ORE

 

• Devin Gardner, MICH

 

• Blake Bortles, UCF

 

• Aaron Murray, UGA

 

• Jeff Mathews, COR

 

• Johnny Manziel, TAM

 

Tier 4

 

• Bryn Renner, UNC

 

• A.J. McCarron, ALA

 

• Zach Mettenberger, LSU

 

• Tyler Russell, MSU

 

• Keith Price, UW

 

• Brett Hundley, UCLA

 

Tier 5

 

• Logan Thomas, VT

 

• Derek Carr, FrSt

 

Where would Braxton Miller fit if he were to declare?

 

Don't see him as a QB in the NFL.

Edited August 10, 2013 by CampinWithGoatSampson