AP rushing for 2,500 yards???

[Phins4life 271]

Just to further explain my point from earlier, here are all of the 2000 yard seasons we've seen out of a RB in NFL history and the way that they followed that season up:

 

- O.J. Simpson, 1973, 332 carries for 2003 yards at 6.0 YPC => 1974, 270 carries for 1125 yards at 4.2 YPC

 

- Eric Dickerson, 1984, 379 carries for 2105 yards at 5.6 YPC => 1985, 292 carries for 1234 yards at 4.2 YPC (missed 2 games)

 

- Barry Sanders, 1997, 335 carries for 2053 yards at 6.1 YPC => 1998, 343 carries for 1491 yards at 4.3 YPC

 

- Terrell Davis, 1998, 392 carries for 2008 yards at 5.1 YPC => 1999, 67 carries for 211 yards at 3.1 YPC (missed 12 games)

 

- Jamal Lewis, 2003, 387 carries for 2066 yards at 5.3 YPC => 2004, 235 carries for 1006 yards at 4.3 YPC (missed 4 games)

 

- Chris Johnson, 2010, 358 carries for 2006 yards at 5.6 YPC => 2010, 316 carries for 1364 yards at 4.3 YPC

 

-Adrian Peterson, 2012, 348 carries for 2097 yards at 6.0 YPC =>

 

The consistent dropoff in YPC is pretty astounding. The absolute best case in history was one full yard less per carry after the 2000 yard season, and the average has been 1.6. Now I understand that we're talking about a special player here, but if you want to try and tell me that he's so much better than guys in this list like Sanders, Dickerson, Davis, or Lewis that he's going to completely reverse what they were able to accomplish then I'm going to have to say that you're probably a prisoner of the moment.

 

It's interesting to note that Barry was the only guy who managed MORE carries than the previous season. But that may also have to do with zero improvement in the QB situation .

[KempBolt 498]

Same was probably said about Calvin Johnson and his 2000 yards

 

Another reason why this analogy holds no water- in 1995, when Jerry Rice set the record at 1848 yards, Steve Young attempted 447 passes. In 2012, when Calvin Johnson broke said record, Matthew Stafford attempted 727 passes.

 

This isn't to take anything away from Megatron's incredicle season, but the principle is simple that production is partially a function of opportunity. More pass attempts = more chances to gain yards.

 

Adrian Peteron, on the other hand, had 348 yard rushing attempts last season. That places him right around the average of 362 carries for 2000 yard rushers. So there isn't the disparity in opportunity between him and past running backs, like there is between Calvin Johnson and past receivers. If he somehow had a chance to carry the ball way more than past runners, there might be an argument that he can blow their numbers out of the water.

 

For AP to crack 2500 yards, he'd need to maintain his 6.0 YPC (which no 2000 rusher has come cloe to doing), while also breaking the record for most rushing attempts with 417. He isn't going to do either of those things.

Edited July 15, 2013 by KempBolt

[BC 331]

Get a guy who rushed for 2,000 and a guy who nearly received 2,000 and people will clamor for more. I'm pretty sure it would take the 18 game season.

[theMileHighGuy 656]

8 in the Box Myth

 

Figure of speech, no one actually puts 9 guys down on the line.

 

 

Unless you're the Steelers in the 2011 playoffs. :grinno:

[East495 55]

People listen when AP talks. NFL fans, Vikings fans and esp.. me! While AP's new goal is noble, does it sound like sheer lunacy? Because it would require dusting Dickerson’s mark by...nearly 400 yards. Consider that Peterson would need to average 156.25 rushing yards per game this year. He did average a still absurd 131.1 along with six yards per carry last year. So to raise that per game average by 25 yards? Its not impossible....Esp for AP!

[Dutch 874]

I say break Eric Dickerson's record first.