Let's put this to bed. Give me Andrew Luck.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Speaking of difficult circumstances, it must have been really tough on Luck to have to face the easiest schedule of any team in the NFL last year. Russell Wilson is so dang lucky for getting to play the 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals defenses 6 times a year!

 

As for the people making the excuse that Luck's numbers are mediocre because he was forced to throw downfield so much, ahhh no....his stats on shorter distance throws are poor as well. Check out these numbers based on throwing distance.

 

Throws 1-10 yards passed line of scrimmage:

165/279, 59.1% completions, 1637 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs, 80.6 passer rating (25th best rating in NFL)

 

Throws 11-20 yards passed line of scrimmage:

77/162, 47.5% completions, 1302 yards, 4 TDs, 8 INTs, 62.8 passer rating (26th best rating in NFL)

 

As for downfield throws, Luck only attempted 3 more passes 31+ yards downfield than Russell Wilson did. Luck had 32 attempts and Wilson had 29. Luck's rating on those throws is actually slightly better than Wilson. Luck's is 75.3 and Wilson's is 72.8. Bottom line is that Luck's inefficiencies throwing the ball short to intermediate distances is why his numbers are so mediocre.

 

Careful, I tried this argument on page 4 and it got really complicating. ESPN's stats guys missed 11 of Luck's passes on the splits. So there's no legitimacy to your post.

[Minny 33]

Careful, I tried this argument on page 4 and it got really complicating. ESPN's stats guys missed 11 of Luck's passes on the splits. So there's no legitimacy to your post.

 

Haha thanks for the warning. I guess we'll have to assume all 11 of those attempts were deep downfield throws

[Jules 98]

Sheesh this thread still holding it's own I see. lol.

[Dutch 874]

Careful, I tried this argument on page 4 and it got really complicating. ESPN's stats guys missed 11 of Luck's passes on the splits. So there's no legitimacy to your post.

 

Lol, come on Dmac... That was after a string of your back to back to back contradictory post (that other people even pointed out) and then you posted stats that were incorrect. Only then, in that instance, I saw everything as implausible.

 

Haha thanks for the warning. I guess we'll have to assume all 11 of those attempts were deep downfield throws

 

Come on, you don't have to cosign like that lol. Don't let anyone plant seeds. Make your own assessment after you see my response. I'm always up for reasonable debate.

 

But to the point.

 

(I stepped away from keyboard for a while, came back and noticed you updated/edited your post; taken into consideration).

 

Speaking of difficult circumstances, it must have been really tough on Luck to have to face the easiest schedule of any team in the NFL last year. Russell Wilson is so dang lucky for getting to play the 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals defenses 6 times a year!

 

Great point. Luck had an easier schedule without a doubt. Russell Wilson also had to face higher caliber teams than Luck did as well. But again, Wilson's team in general is top notch. Don't get me wrong, Wilson definitely contributes to why the Seahawks are so good. But don't disregard how good Wilson's supporting cast is having the 3rd best rushing attack in the league (Lynch 3rd ranked RB in yards) and the #1 rated scoring defense in the league. In that tough division, those 6 games you are referring to, the Seahawks defense held their divisional opponents to an average of 13 points a game. Only one game did the Seahawks allow 20 points from a divisional opponent and even had a game with 6 turnovers that resulted in a shutout. The Seahawks went 3-3 in the division and something else that is also noteworthy is that Marshawn Lynch rushed for over 100 yards in each win; actually rushed for 100 yards 5/6 of those divisional games. Luck only had the privilege of having a RB rush over 100 yards once throughout the entire season. Something to consider.

 

Also, in case anyone decides to bring up Luck having 100 yard receiver(s) (only once did two receivers have over 100 yards), I think having a running game controlling the tempo and time of possession with a #1 scoring defense is way more effective then a pass heavy team (stops the clock frequently) with no running game and a bad defense. A precautionary preemptive rebuttal just in case.

 

As for the people making the excuse that Luck's numbers are mediocre because he was forced to throw downfield so much, ahhh no....his stats on shorter distance throws are poor as well. Check out these numbers based on throwing distance.

 

Throws 1-10 yards passed line of scrimmage:

165/279, 59.1% completions, 1637 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs, 80.6 passer rating (25th best rating in NFL)

 

Throws 11-20 yards passed line of scrimmage:

77/162, 47.5% completions, 1302 yards, 4 TDs, 8 INTs, 62.8 passer rating (26th best rating in NFL)

 

Also, his stats for 1-10 are: 174/285, 61.1%, 1709 yards, 13 TDs, 6 Ints.

 

11-20: 76/156, 48.7%, 1342 yards, 1 TD, 6 Ints.

 

My argument consisted of more then deep passes down the field in relation to Lucks efficiency. You addressed only one part of my argument. In regard to his efficiency, I also discussed the volume of passes he took behind one of the worse offensive lines in the league, not having the benefit of a running game like Wilson and RG3 and being a one dimensional passing team making it easier for defenses to attack and gameplan for the rookie. Luck was under way more duress than RG3 and Wilson being blitzed at an exceedingly higher rate, got pressured way more, and got hit the most times than any QB in the league behind that horrible offensive line. Luck was also getting the ball out faster [2.86s] than RG3 [3.01s] and Wilson [3.14s most in the league] for those who say he was holding onto the ball too long (which he did at times being a rookie but not as long as the other two). The difference in seconds may seem minimal, but over a course of 16 games and considering all of the averaged attempts also considering the volume of Lucks attempts (which was exceptionally higher than the other two), those seconds add up. All of these factors I have presented played a part in my stance because they all coincide with each other. Some disregard these factors. But after watching the games seeing how defenses relentlessly attacked and blitzed Luck knowing that their running game wasn't a factor, putting him under intense pressure, and considering the volume of passes being behind that horrible offensive line, those factors without a doubt played a part in his passing game. I'm not saying it's the end all making excuses for all his errand passes because he made bad passes on his own (even under no pressure at times), but I definitely saw the tangible effects of the pressure he was receiving.

 

As for downfield throws, Luck only attempted 3 more passes 31+ yards downfield than Russell Wilson did. Luck had 32 attempts and Wilson had 29. Luck's rating on those throws is actually slightly better than Wilson. Luck's is 75.3 and Wilson's is 72.8. Bottom line is that Luck's inefficiencies throwing the ball short to intermediate distances is why his numbers are so mediocre.

 

Update: I looked back and realized these numbers have already been mentioned and disputed. I DO believe the ineptitude of the talent around Luck is being exaggerated a bit by other posters.

 

I wouldn't put much stock into a stat with so low volume of attempts. One good or bad play could sway the stats totally in someones favor or misfortune. It's not much substance there to make a thorough evaluation off of so few attempts.

Edited August 6, 2013 by dutchff7

[Dutch 874]

Sheesh this thread still holding it's own I see. lol.

 

Good threads always have room for good and meaningful discussion

 

Ofcourse though, threads are only as good as the people who post in them and people have contributed some good quality post to keep this going.

[Jules 98]

Good threads always have room for good and meaningful discussion

 

Ofcourse though, threads are only as good as the people who post in them and people have contributed some good quality post to keep this going.

 

I understand. I had forgotten about the thread I think and saw it and was like:

 

Of course I can't blame people for discussing Luck and the Colts either considering how absolutely positively fantastically fascinating they and Luck are!!!

 

 

 

I enjoy the debates and all your analysis btw. This season will tell a lot too and I hope for improvements.

[Dutch 874]

I understand. I had forgotten about the thread I think and saw it and was like:

 

Of course I can't blame people for discussing Luck and the Colts either considering how absolutely positively fantastically fascinating they and Luck are!!!

 

 

 

I enjoy the debates and all your analysis btw. This season will tell a lot too and I hope for improvements.

 

Yes, I'm looking forward to seeing Luck next year as well. Well actually, all 3 of these QBs. I believe Luck and Wilson will continue progressing with their success. Wilson progression last year was the most visible from game to game. As far as RG3, I'm not sure if he will sustain the success he had last year. Especially considering if his playstyle doesn't change. I don't know if he would be able to hold up. However, I do believe he has talent, just slightly skeptical.

Edited August 6, 2013 by dutchff7

[Jules 98]

Yes, I'm looking forward to seeing Luck next year as well. Well actually, all 3 of these QBs. I believe Luck and Wilson will continue progressing with their success. Wilson progression last year was the most visible from game to game. As far as RG3, I'm not sure if he will sustain the success he had last year. Especially considering if his playstyle doesn't change. I don't know if he would be able to hold up. However, I do believe he has talent, just slightly skeptical.

 

That's pretty much much what I predicted on another forum a week ago or so. I said I have a good hunch on Luck and Wilson. That doesn't mean that RGIII can't shine either but like you said I am hesitant on his durability and also the Redskins IMO may be too stubborn to protect him more. I am also skeptical.

 

I do agree, Wilson showed the most IMPROVEMENT as the year went on. Luck seemed to regress at some point mid season IMO if I remember correctly with more interceptions even though he maintained his composure in the 4th quarter/clutch in several games that were within reach to win. (which I know many hate to hear the clutch thing again but it's true and can't be denied)

 

I guess only time will tell....I am sure everyone will be fine.

Edited August 6, 2013 by Jules

[UndecidedFrog 12]

Jules, I think the mid season regression you saw from Luck may have something to do with the additive factor of being sacked often (total for season 41 times) and being hit more often.

 

I think if you keep him clean, he will not regress.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Are there that many QBs that are going to get worse (or not get better, rather) if they aren't sacked? I mean, come on. Part of the job is how you handle the obstacles in front of you. Luck placed some of those obstacles in front of himself. He hurdled some and tripped over more.

[the Lions fan 19]

I have to say it is uninformed to rain praise on Pagano and criticise Arians when talking about Luck or last years Colts. Chuck was 2-2 at the reigns, Bruce was 9-3 and Bruce had to play clean up. You can't measure the team playing their hearts out, but Paganos games were arguably both easier and more important.

 

Was he deserving of the COTY award? That's a different subject.

[UndecidedFrog 12]

Are there that many QBs that are going to get worse (or not get better, rather) if they aren't sacked? I mean, come on. Part of the job is how you handle the obstacles in front of you. Luck placed some of those obstacles in front of himself. He hurdled some and tripped over more.

 

 

Generally, QBs play better if they aren't sacked.

Also, that does not detract from the fact that Luck endured a lot of sacks (top 3 sacked QBs) last season.

 

It is easy to put things together and project he will do better if his OL does better. Part of the job is to handle the obstacles in front of you. However, if the obstacles placed in front of you happens to be a bottom 3 ranked OL, paired with an OC/IHC whose offense was predicated on a penchant for long-developing down field passes, I think Luck did very well with what was placed in front of him.

[Minny 33]

Generally, QBs play better if they aren't sacked.

Also, that does not detract from the fact that Luck endured a lot of sacks (top 3 sacked QBs) last season.

 

It is easy to put things together and project he will do better if his OL does better. Part of the job is to handle the obstacles in front of you. However, if the obstacles placed in front of you happens to be a bottom 3 ranked OL, paired with an OC/IHC whose offense was predicated on a penchant for long-developing down field passes, I think Luck did very well with what was placed in front of him.

 

So you're just going to ignore the fact that a big reason for Luck's high sack totals is because he dropped back to pass so much? His sack% was 6.1%. The league average was 6.2%. So in actuality, Luck was sacked less per drop back than the NFL average.

[Dutch 874]

Just hit a shit ton more.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

Lol, come on Dmac... That was after a string of your back to back to back contradictory post (that other people even pointed out) and then you posted stats that were incorrect. Only then, in that instance, I saw everything as implausible.

 

You're the only one who called me out on any contradiction pertaining to Luck's inaccuracy. I literally said the same thing that Vikingsfan was pointing out and you started combine half of sentences together to call it out as contradictions. Claiming that half of the sentence tells you all you need to know.

 

Ngata's post on page #2 was based on a misunderstanding of the point of my post.

 

The season needs to start already...

Edited August 14, 2013 by DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F

[Dutch 874]

A little over a quarter into the season and so far Luck is playing great football. He may not have the gaudy passing numbers he had last year (in a more balanced offense) but he's taking care of the ball, he's more efficient and he's still making those eye popping throws. He's standing tall in the pocket with great poise, good pocket awareness and doing a great job stepping up into the pocket making some great clutch throws under pressure with games on the line. He also had a great 4th quarter comeback against Russel Wilson and his Seahawks yesterday and was probably the game of the year so far; in my opinion. It was a great game. I think it's safe to say that Luck is out performing RG3 and Russell Wilson at this point.

Edited October 7, 2013 by dutchff7

[Attyla the Hawk 197]

A little over a quarter into the season and so far Luck is playing great football. He may not have the gaudy passing numbers he had last year (in a more balanced offense) but he's taking care of the ball, he's more efficient and he's still making those eye popping throws. He's standing tall in the pocket with great poise, good pocket awareness and doing a great job stepping up into the pocket making some great clutch throws under pressure with games on the line. He also had a great 4th quarter comeback against Russel Wilson and his Seahawks yesterday and was probably the game of the year so far; in my opinion. It was a great game. I think it's more then safe to say that Luck is out performing RG3 and Russel Wilson at this point.

 

I thought Wilson and Luck were about as closely matched as possible:

 

 

Luck: 16/29 229yds 2td

Wilson 15/31 210yds 2td

 

Both teams are really built the same philosophically. I don't see a lot of separation between the two. The game was extremely close. Both QBs did enough to win. I'm pretty sure Colts fans were thinking Wilson had too much time left.

 

If anything, I felt that the comparison between the two was pretty dead even.

[Dutch 874]

 

A little over a quarter into the season and so far Luck is playing great football. He may not have the gaudy passing numbers he had last year (in a more balanced offense) but he's taking care of the ball, he's more efficient and he's still making those eye popping throws. He's standing tall in the pocket with great poise, good pocket awareness and doing a great job stepping up into the pocket making some great clutch throws under pressure with games on the line. He also had a great 4th quarter comeback against Russel Wilson and his Seahawks yesterday and was probably the game of the year so far; in my opinion. It was a great game. I think it's more then safe to say that Luck is out performing RG3 and Russel Wilson at this point.

 

I thought Wilson and Luck were about as closely matched as possible:

 

 

Luck: 16/29 229yds 2td

Wilson 15/31 210yds 2td

 

Both teams are really built the same philosophically. I don't see a lot of separation between the two. The game was extremely close. Both QBs did enough to win. I'm pretty sure Colts fans were thinking Wilson had too much time left.

 

If anything, I felt that the comparison between the two was pretty dead even.

 

 

I was talking about throughout the entire season.

 

Luck: 97/156 62.2%, 1144 yards, 7 TDs, 2 Ints: 2 Rushing TDs and 1 Fumble : 3 total turnovers

 

Wilson: 74/127 58.3%, 997 yards, 8 TDs, 4 Ints: 0 Rushing TDs and 3 Fumbles; 7 total turnovers

 

RG3: 106/170 62.4%, 1202 yards, 6 TDs, 4 Ints: 0 Rushing TDs and 1 Fumble: 4 total turnovers

 

 

Honestly, they are all pretty close but as of right now, Luck has the edge in my opinion. RG3 has been lighting it up and really only had 2 bad games. The 1st half against us and against the Lions not putting any points on the board but in his defense, his defense has played horribly. Still relatively close though.

 

As far as the game, they were definitely close statistically. Wilson did however add 102 yards on the ground which was awesome. Russell made a lot of his plays early in the game but what separated them was that Luck put points on the board in the 4th quarter to put his team ahead as to where Russell Wilson slowed down in the 4th quarter and threw an interception on what could have been a game winning drive with less then 2 minutes left. Luck turned it up and made some amazing plays in crunch time. This was truly an awesome game on both sides. To Wilson's credit, these are the situations that he usually wins.

Edited October 7, 2013 by dutchff7

[KempBolt 498]

A little over a quarter into the season and so far Luck is playing great football. He may not have the gaudy passing numbers he had last year (in a more balanced offense) but he's taking care of the ball, he's more efficient and he's still making those eye popping throws. He's standing tall in the pocket with great poise, good pocket awareness and doing a great job stepping up into the pocket making some great clutch throws under pressure with games on the line. He also had a great 4th quarter comeback against Russel Wilson and his Seahawks yesterday and was probably the game of the year so far; in my opinion. It was a great game. I think it's safe to say that Luck is out performing RG3 and Russell Wilson at this point.

 

I believe he's also had something like 5 passes complete inside the 5 yard line. IOW, he's very close to having several more touchdowns to his name. Which is just how it goes sometimes, but those things tend to balance out over time. Point being, we could see more impressive statistics from him as the season moves on.

[oochymp 2,393]

Honestly, they are all pretty close but as of right now, Luck has the edge in my opinion. RG3 has been lighting it up and really only had 2 bad games. The 1st half against us and against the Lions not putting any points on the board but in his defense, his defense has played horribly. Still relatively close though.

I actually thought RG3 played really well against the Lions overall, he just had two poorly timed mistakes (a pick in the redzone and a fumble on a slide attempt) he also had a deep TD dropped at the goalline by a receiver (wouldn't have been an easy catch by any stretch, but certainly catchable)

[Dutch 874]

 

Honestly, they are all pretty close but as of right now, Luck has the edge in my opinion. RG3 has been lighting it up and really only had 2 bad games. The 1st half against us and against the Lions not putting any points on the board but in his defense, his defense has played horribly. Still relatively close though.

I actually thought RG3 played really well against the Lions overall, he just had two poorly timed mistakes (a pick in the redzone and a fumble on a slide attempt) he also had a deep TD dropped at the goalline by a receiver (wouldn't have been an easy catch by any stretch, but certainly catchable)

 

 

So basically he almost had a big game but really had a bad one with costly turnovers?

[oochymp 2,393]

 

 

Honestly, they are all pretty close but as of right now, Luck has the edge in my opinion. RG3 has been lighting it up and really only had 2 bad games. The 1st half against us and against the Lions not putting any points on the board but in his defense, his defense has played horribly. Still relatively close though.

I actually thought RG3 played really well against the Lions overall, he just had two poorly timed mistakes (a pick in the redzone and a fumble on a slide attempt) he also had a deep TD dropped at the goalline by a receiver (wouldn't have been an easy catch by any stretch, but certainly catchable)

 

 

So basically he almost had a big game but really had a bad one with costly turnovers?

 

I wouldn't call it a bad one, I haven't looked at the stats but from my observation he played well overall with a couple of costly turnovers

[BC 331]

Russell Wilson may not have done well on one drive yesterday, but he's made key throws in the 4th quarter leading us to comeback victories against some pretty beast teams the last 2 years. He's had more success than he has failure. Remember our two offensive lineman that made the pro bowl? Okung and Max Unger? Yeah they are a huge reason if not THE reason we have converted only 5 of 26 third down conversions the last two games.

[Dutch 874]

Russell Wilson may not have done well on one drive yesterday, but he's made key throws in the 4th quarter leading us to comeback victories against some pretty beast teams the last 2 years. He's had more success than he has failure. Remember our two offensive lineman that made the pro bowl? Okung and Max Unger? Yeah they are a huge reason if not THE reason we have converted only 5 of 26 third down conversions the last two games.

 

Yeah, I accredited Russell Wilson for his late game heroics but you can't win them all.

[Dutch 874]