Jaws QB Countdown

[AL_Royalty 489]

He wasn't ranked last though. He's ranked ahead of Weeden and Tannehill, but behind Luck and Wilson. Given that he has the most uncertainty coming off any injury, and those two ahead of him had superb seasons themselves, I'd say that's fair.

First day here at TGP? You CLEARLY haven't heard. THE LUCKZ IZ TURRIBLAH!!!! He shouldn't even be a QB in the NFL. He should be backing up Tebow in NE if he wants a real shot at playing in THIS league.

 

This is pretty much how most of the folks around here regard Luck. It's like that whole underpants gnome logic.

 

Step one: lolESPNsucks

 

Step two: ESPN Likes Andrew Luck

 

Step three: ???

 

Step four: Luck Sucks

[Jules 98]

[RazorStar 4,025]

<_ luck was below average last season with flashes of being good. i.e. a lot rookie qb his more comparable ryan tannehill than robert griffin who broke the mold in terms efficiency. russell wilson game improved efficiency as well when you include games like dismantling bills and cardinals late year it hard to say i seen be that dominant yet. if want rank players on future potential can high list have no reason believe he won improve new coordinator but we talking about what they currently shown isn better tony romo or wilson. even jay cutler philip rivers.>

 

He needs to time to prove that. Because you never know, he could end up being the next Rick Mirer.

[Crash 105]

^ I have no response for this comment. I guess lay off the sauce?

Edited July 12, 2013 by Crash

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

<_< Luck was below average last season with flashes of being good. I.e. A lot of rookie QB's. His season was more comparable with Ryan Tannehill than Robert Griffin, who broke the mold in terms of QB efficiency. Russell Wilson's game was improved in efficiency as well, when you include games like the dismantling of the Bills and Cardinals late in the year, it's hard to say I've seen Luck be that dominant yet. If you want to rank players on future potential, Luck can be high on the list, I have no reason to believe he won't improve with a new coordinator, but if we're talking about what they've currently shown, Luck isn't better than Tony Romo, or Robert Griffin, or Russell Wilson. Or even Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers.

 

He needs to time to prove that. Because you never know, he could end up being the next Rick Mirer.

 

Luck was running the most complex system in the history of the NFL, deliberately designed for a QB to fail. He has to throw over half of his passes with his eyes closed and on one leg.

 

To go along with the Colts signing and drafting some of the worst football players ever... Give him the wrong plays to study during the week so he can make adjustments on the go. His defense digs him into insurmountable deficits, and his linemen drop to the floor on all his dropbacks which happen to all be 7 step drops.

 

There's no way anyone can overcome all those adversities and still single handily carry his team to 11 wins, let alone a rookie. Luck was easily one of the best QBs in the league last year, the pre-draft hype actually undervalued how good he is considering the things he did last year.

Edited July 12, 2013 by DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F

[KempBolt 498]

 

This is probably the best thing I've ever seen. I can't stop looking at it.

[RazorStar 4,025]

So now that all of those problems are fixed, the Colts are gonna go 16-0 right?

 

Don't give the guy too much credit now...

[Jules 98]

So now that all of those problems are fixed, the Colts are gonna go 16-0 right?

Don't give the guy too much credit now...

 

Yep you got it.

 

Pretty much a lock now.

 

And your favorites, Luck and Peyton will meet up in the AFC title game. And hug when the game is over and Peyton will declare international Andrew Luck day to celebrate.

 

Of course the Colts will win. Since Manning is a secret government agent we sent to ruin Denver in the playoffs. Everyone in the Colts organization is in on it and everyone knows in Indiana that in 2011 Manning officially gave up football and was recruited by the shadow government. He just goes through the motions now of football working for the Denver Broncos collecting an extra pay check.

 

As for Luck? He was created in a lab by Archie Manning and Oliver Luck in Germany back in the day. The secret was to have him have a modestly successful statistical rookie season in order not to set off too many alarm bells. Although the 11 wins might have been an accident. It was supposed to be 10 but the Lions blew it too much.

 

When Luck went to Berlin recently it was to recharge him for next season and the latest plan. I heard he even skipped over to Russia and visited Putin and Snowden for a night on the town and he tried on Krafts Super Bowl ring.

 

[Jules 98]

I just read on another forum that Wilson came in at #12 after RGIII at #13. And Kaepernick is #11.

http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releases/2013/07/2013-jaws-qb-countdown/

 

 

You know what this means? A certain rookie QB from last year has yet to be ranked.

 

 

Be prepared. Be prepared.

 

Edited July 13, 2013 by Jules

[FartWaffles 1,857]

Trying to figure out what Jaworski's been drinking to think that Matt Schaub is a Top 10 quarterback...

[KempBolt 498]

Trying to figure out what Jaworski's been drinking to think that Matt Schaub is a Top 10 quarterback...

 

I don't expect much out of Jaws as a rule.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Trying to figure out what Jaworski's been drinking to think that Matt Schaub is a Top 10 quarterback...

 

 

Fart is that dude >

 

Yeah that's ridiculous. I mean Schaub's solid, smart guy, but really just an average QB. Middle of the pack, solid QB, nothing more, nothing less. Surround him with weapons to throw to or maybe have the defense or running game absolutely go hammer and he'll maybe get past the 2nd round

[AllYouNeedIsLovie 377]

Jaws has Flacco in his top 5... LOL.

[AL_Royalty 489]

I don't expect much out of Jaws as a rule.

I don't either, but I mean really: who would you put over him? Please, for the love of God, don't mention Rivers. I'll completely leave him out of this one if you will.

 

I personally don't think that any of the rookies should have been ahead of him after just one year, though I have no problem with Luck being in the top ten. After that though, who's better than Schaub that was ranked behind him? Dalton, who Schaub outperformed in the playoffs? Cutler, who throws picks like rocks at a which stoning? A case could be made for Romo I guess, but we all know that getting into the playoffs repeatedly gives a guy a little more pub.

 

When there are only 32 starting QB's in the league, being #10 isn't really all that special. Top five and you're doing something. Start lol'ing then guys.

[KempBolt 498]

I don't either, but I mean really: who would you put over him? Please, for the love of God, don't mention Rivers. I'll completely leave him out of this one if you will.

 

I personally don't think that any of the rookies should have been ahead of him after just one year, though I have no problem with Luck being in the top ten. After that though, who's better than Schaub that was ranked behind him? Dalton, who Schaub outperformed in the playoffs? Cutler, who throws picks like rocks at a which stoning? A case could be made for Romo I guess, but we all know that getting into the playoffs repeatedly gives a guy a little more pub.

 

When there are only 32 starting QB's in the league, being #10 isn't really all that special. Top five and you're doing something. Start lol'ing then guys.

 

I'd personally rate Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton ahead of him with Josh Freeman, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson all in the conversation to be ahead of him as well (and if not, to soon pass him up).

 

And my original comment on Rivers' ranking is that it's fine with me given what happened last year- I'm just confident he'll outplay it.

[AL_Royalty 489]

I'd personally rate Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton ahead of him with Josh Freeman, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson all in the conversation to be ahead of him as well (and if not, to soon pass him up).

 

And my original comment on Rivers' ranking is that it's fine with me given what happened last year- I'm just confident he'll outplay it.

That's all pretty fair I suppose, but I've always been a believer that a more than competent QB who is under center for a team that's consistantly "in the hunt" is a pretty big thing, which would probably be that main reason that I put him over guys like Romo and Stafford.

 

As for Cam, he's certainly physically gifted. I have no doubt that he'll be right there, but after just two years of under .500 ball I'm not ready to hand him the keys just yet.

 

Personally, had it not been for the SUPERB playoff performance of Flacco last postseason, I'm not sure I'd have him in my top ten at all. There'd be conversation, but ultimately he's been the cause of a lot of the Raven's losses, as well as their wins. Maybe I'm hatin' because I think he's a douche, too, but that's how I feel.

 

Schaub may not be the game-changing winner that Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees are, but he's not the throw-forcing bag of inconsistent crazy that the other guys I've touched on have proven to be when shit gets real.

[KempBolt 498]

It's not exactly like Schaugb was a world beater in the playoffs. His % was good, but that'll happen when the offense runs through the running game. His YPA was in the toilet and he threw 2 picks to go along with his 2 scores.

 

But I put much less into W-L. Yes, normally good QB's win a lot and bad ones don't- but exceptions exist. So supporting or criticizing a guy based on that isn't necessarily valid.

[AL_Royalty 489]

It's not the only important thing, but it's definitely an important thing. There are countless examples, but Eli is the first one that springs to mind. If he doesn't win two rings, he probably isn't even in most people's top ten. Be it as it may, he did, and now he's got a legit shot at Canton.

 

People still think that Vince Young was a good QB way back win. His stats were garbage, and he looked like shit most of the time. Still, he had one hell of a win-loss record. It matters. After all, Herm Edwards might not have been a great coach, but he was spot on with at least one thing he said: "You play.... To win... THE GAME!"

[KempBolt 498]

It's not the only important thing, but it's definitely an important thing. There are countless examples, but Eli is the first one that springs to mind. If he doesn't win two rings, he probably isn't even in most people's top ten. Be it as it may, he did, and now he's got a legit shot at Canton.

 

People still think that Vince Young was a good QB way back win. His stats were garbage, and he looked like shit most of the time. Still, he had one hell of a win-loss record. It matters. After all, Herm Edwards might not have been a great coach, but he was spot on with at least one thing he said: "You play.... To win... THE GAME!"

 

I admit that it matters to a lot of people. But it just doesn't matter that much to me.

[Minny 33]

I'm a big believer in the passer rating when evaluating quarterbacks, mainly because passer rating differential has over a 90% correlation to wins. In other words, whichever team's quarterback has a higher passer rating during the game, that team wins about 90% of the time. What better way to evaluate quarterbacks then by using a statistic that translates highly to wins?

 

But as we all know, a quarterback's schedule can greatly influence the type of numbers they put up. For example, Sam Bradford faced the toughest slate of defenses of any QB in the NFL last year, mainly due to having to face the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals defense 6 times. The defenses he faced last year allowed an average passer rating of 80.5. Then you have Matt Ryan, who faced the easiest slate of defenses in the NFL last year, while facing defenses like the Saints, Buccaneers, and Panthers within his division. The defenses he faced gave up an average of a 91.0 passer rating. So what I did to rank the quarterbacks, was I took each quarterbacks passer rating, and I subtracted it from the average passer rating allowed by the defenses that the QB faced that year. It helps level the playing field between QBs with drastically different difficulties in schedules. After doing the calculations, this is how the QBs were ranked.

 

1. Aaron Rodgers (+23.6)

2. Alex Smith (+22.0)

3. Russell Wilson (+17.6)

4. Colin Kaepernick (+17.5)

5. Peyton Manning (+17.0)

6. Tom Brady (+16.9)

7. Robert Griffin III (+13.2)

8. Ben Roethlisberger (+8.3)

9. Matt Ryan (+8.1)

10. Drew Brees (+7.9)

11. Matt Schaub (+5.1)

12. Tony Romo (+4.5)

13. Sam Bradford (+2.1)

14. Kevin Kolb (+1.1)

15. Joe Flacco (+0.6)

16. Philip Rivers (+0.6)

17. Andy Dalton (-0.1)

18. Eli Manning (-0.3)

19. Ryan Fitzpatrick (-0.5)

20. Christian Ponder (-1.2)

21. Carson Palmer (-1.5)

22. Cam Newton (-1.7)

23. Matthew Stafford (-2.4)

24. Jay Cutler (-4.5)

25. Michael Vick (-7.1)

26. Ryan Tannehill (-7.3)

27. Blaine Gabbert (-8.2)

28. Josh Freeman (-8.2)

29. Andrew Luck (-9.5)

30. Nick Foles (-10.8)

31. Jake Locker (-11.5)

32. Brandon Weeden (-14.8)

33. Chad Henne (-15.1)

34. Mark Sanchez (-16.2)

35. Matt Cassel (-18.7)

Edited July 19, 2013 by Minny

[AL_Royalty 489]

I admit that it matters to a lot of people. But it just doesn't matter that much to me.

Fair enough. To each their own.

[lordnate 6]

I'm a big believer in the passer rating when evaluating quarterbacks, mainly because passer rating differential has over a 90% correlation to wins. In other words, whichever team's quarterback has a higher passer rating during the game, that team wins about 90% of the time. What better way to evaluate quarterbacks then by using a statistic that translates highly to wins?

 

But as we all know, a quarterback's schedule can greatly influence the type of numbers they put up. For example, Sam Bradford faced the toughest slate of defenses of any QB in the NFL last year, mainly due to having to face the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals defense 6 times. The defenses he faced last year allowed an average passer rating of 80.5. Then you have Matt Ryan, who faced the easiest slate of defenses in the NFL last year, while facing defenses like the Saints, Buccaneers, and Panthers within his division. The defenses he faced gave up an average of a 91.0 passer rating. So what I did to rank the quarterbacks, was I took each quarterbacks passer rating, and I subtracted it from the average passer rating allowed by the defenses that the QB faced that year. It helps level the playing field between QBs with drastically different difficulties in schedules. After doing the calculations, this is how the QBs were ranked.

 

1. Aaron Rodgers (+23.6)

2. Alex Smith (+22.0)

3. Russell Wilson (+17.6)

4. Colin Kaepernick (+17.5)

5. Peyton Manning (+17.0)

6. Tom Brady (+16.9)

7. Robert Griffin III (+13.2)

8. Ben Roethlisberger (+8.3)

9. Matt Ryan (+8.1)

10. Drew Brees (+7.9)

11. Matt Schaub (+5.1)

12. Tony Romo (+4.5)

13. Sam Bradford (+2.1)

14. Kevin Kolb (+1.1)

15. Joe Flacco (+0.6)

16. Philip Rivers (+0.6)

17. Andy Dalton (-0.1)

18. Eli Manning (-0.3)

19. Ryan Fitzpatrick (-0.5)

20. Christian Ponder (-1.2)

21. Carson Palmer (-1.5)

22. Cam Newton (-1.7)

23. Matthew Stafford (-2.4)

24. Jay Cutler (-4.5)

25. Michael Vick (-7.1)

26. Ryan Tannehill (-7.3)

27. Blaine Gabbert (-8.2)

28. Josh Freeman (-8.2)

29. Andrew Luck (-9.5)

30. Nick Foles (-10.8)

31. Jake Locker (-11.5)

32. Brandon Weeden (-14.8)

33. Chad Henne (-15.1)

34. Mark Sanchez (-16.2)

35. Matt Cassel (-18.7)

 

I like passer rating with a few exceptions.

 

Pass attempts. Passer rating in and of itself is really just an average. It just combines several stats to get that average. The problem with averages, is that attempts tend to give out diminishing returns. If you pass the ball 40 times a game, you'll most likely have a lower passer rating than if you throw the ball 25 times a game. Now, it still correlates to wins, as a QB that doesn't throw the ball much normally wins. Most teams follow the philosophy, "pass to get the lead and run to seal the deal." If your QB has low pass attempts and your team isn't winning, chances are the HC doesn't trust him with the ball.

 

The only other thing to consider with passer rating and QBs, is that passer rating is not 100% determined by the QB. If the QB hits a RB on a screen pass and the RB runs for a 50 yard TD, it counts the same as if the QB completes a 50 yard pass down field in the end zone. A QB with better players around him will have a better passer rating.

 

Looking at your list, I doubt any expert would put Alex Smith ahead of Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Alex Smith benefited from both of my reasons passer rating is flawed. He played on one of the best teams in the league and he had very low pass attempts per game. His passer rating over-rates him, probably more than any other QB in the league. You can see, that Colin Kaepernick had very similar results. Russell Wilson was on a very similar team and also was highly rated. Its hard for me to imagine that 3 of the top 4 QBs in the league were in the same division and two were on the same team. That would be an extreme rarity.

 

IMO, passer rating is fairly close, but you have to adjust for several things. Its very hard to rate supporting cast accurately, so that adjustment is hard. I'm sure with some studying your could figure out how much to adjust for pass attempts per game.

[Jules 98]

Flacco in the top 5.

 

Flacco.

 

 

:wub:

[Versace 3]

Drew Brees @ 6th .. WTF

[KempBolt 498]

A high passer rating and wins are both by-products of a good QB. But either or both can still exist even if the QB isn't good.