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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/09/2019 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    Hey everyone, it's been a long time coming, but I'm finally ready to put up the results of what I've been working on over the season. I wanted to find a way to adjust a QB's play for what his defense does, and see how often a guy can overcome a bad performance from his defense, or likewise, fail to win even when the defense has a stellar game. In order to do that I needed a whole lot of data. Every single game a QB started or played most of the game (including postseason), the average amount of points a defense allowed in each year, and how often a QB won in those situations. So doing a lot of number crunching, and by examining the years in the Super Bowl Era, I came up with a list of 102 QB's, sorted by 4 separate eras marked by important rule changes or historical reasons. To qualify for this list, a QB must have had 90 starts (including postseason), or 80 starts in the dead ball era (14 game seasons meant I needed a little leeway). Starts in this case are games where the QB played most of or all of the game. (Tom Brady doesn't get credit for starting the game where Bernard Pollard broke his leg, for example). By having the data for all of the eras, you can find the expected win percentage of a QB in games where their defense played well, and the expected win percentage when their defense played poorly. This list is sorted by the player with the most wins above replacement in a 16 game season, to the player with the least. With all of that in mind, let's go ahead and start this list. Current List: Tier 7: Garbage (2 or more wins below the average starter a season) 102. Archie Manning (New Orleans Saints) (-2.886) Tier 6: Career Backup (1-2 wins below the average starter a season) 101. Chris Miller (Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams) (-1.335) 100. Jeff George (Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders) (-1.162) 99. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets, Bucs) (-1.123) 98. Steve DeBerg (San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Bucs and Kansas City Chiefs) (-1.055) 97. Norm Snead (Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants) (-1.028) Tier 5: Journeyman (0.5-1 wins below the average starter a season) 96. Jon Kitna (Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions) (-0.865) 95. Ron Jaworski (Philadelphia Eagles) (-0.841) 94. Vinny Testaverde (Tampa Bay Bucs, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets) (-0.807) 93. Jim Harbaugh (Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, and San Diego Chargers) (-0.790) 92. Ken O'Brien (New York Jets) (-0.743) 91. Kerry Collins (Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans) (-0.713) 90. Jim Everett (Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints) (-0.602) 89. Greg Landry (Detroit Lions) (-0.586) 88. Lynn Dickey (Green Bay Packers) (-0.533) 87. Steve Beuerlein (Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers) (-0.530) 86. Joe Ferguson (Buffalo Bills) (-0.507) Tier 4: Average (0.5 wins above to 0.5 wins below the average starter a season) 85. Aaron Brooks (New Orleans Saints) (-0.414) 84. Steve Bartkowski (Atlanta Falcons) (-0.413) 83. Daunte Culpepper (Minnesota Vikings) (-0.282) 82. Doug Williams (Washington Redskins) (-0.270) 81. Trent Dilfer (Tampa Bay Bucs and Baltimore Ravens) (-0.261) 80. Drew Bledsoe (New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys) (-0.253) 79. Richard Todd (New York Jets) (-0.249) 78. Jim Zorn (Seattle Seahawks) (-0.211) 77. Chris Chandler (Arizona Cardinals, Houston Oilers and Atlanta Falcons) (-0.117) 76. Jeff Blake (Cincinnati Bengals) (-0.110) 75. Jake Plummer (Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos) (-0.025) 74. Bernie Kosar (Cleveland Browns) (0.000) 73. Dan Pastorini (Houston Oilers) (0.051) 72. Jeff Garcia (San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.075) 71. Warren Moon (Houston Oilers, Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.081) 70. Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.091) 69. Brian Sipe (Cleveland Browns) (0.115) 68. Ken Anderson (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.147) 67. Jay Cutler (Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears) (0.165) 66. Bert Jones (Baltimore Colts) (0.218) 65. John Hadl (San Diego Chargers, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers) (0.238) 64. Boomer Esiason (Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets) (0.260) 63. Jim Plunkett (New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers and Oakland/L.A. Raiders) (0.286) 62. Jim Hart (St. Louis Cardinals) (0.294) 61. Craig Morton (Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Denver Broncos) (0.342) 60. Mark Brunell (Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins) (0.350) 59. Neil O'Donnell (Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets) (0.362) 58. Gus Frerotte (Washington Redskins, Lions, Broncos, Bengals, Vikings, Dolphins, Rams) (0.367) 57. Neil Lomax (St. Louis/Arizona Cardinals) (0.368) 56. Tommy Kramer (Minnesota Vikings) (0.375) 55. Dave Krieg (Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs) (0.379) 54. Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions) (0.412) 53. Marc Bulger (St. Louis Rams) (0.475) 52. Billy Kilmer (San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints and Washington Redskins) (0.476) 51. Jake Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) (0.483) Tier 3: Good (0.5-1 wins above the average starter a season) 50. Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals, Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals) (0.568) 49. Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) (0.591) 48. Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) (0.591) (1.266 without adjustment) 47. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) (0.608) 46. Bobby Hebert (New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons) (0.610) 45. Philip Rivers (San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers) (0.614) 44. Phil Simms (New York Giants) (0.639) 43. Roman Gabriel (Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.653) 42. Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans) (0.719) 41. Brad Johnson (Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Bucs) (0.722) 40. Dan Fouts (San Diego Chargers) (0.738) 39. Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys) (0.748) 38. Trent Green (Kansas City Chiefs) (0.821) 37. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) (0.840) 36. Jim McMahon (Chicago Bears) (0.875) (1.705 without adjustment) 35. Eli Manning (New York Giants) (0.884) 34. Michael Vick (Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles) (0.890) 33. Steve Grogan (New England Patriots) (0.989) Tier 2: Franchise QB (1-2 wins above the average starter a season) 32. Joe Namath (New York Jets) (1.002) 30t. Jay Schroeder (Washington Redskins and Los Angeles Raiders) (1.056) 30t. Joe Theismann (Washington Redskins) (1.056) 29. Steve McNair (Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans) (1.064) 28. Bob Griese (Miami Dolphins) (1.069) 27. John Brodie (San Francisco 49ers) (1.071) 26. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) (1.086) 25. Fran Tarkenton (Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants) (1.157) 24. Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.186) 23. Sonny Jurgensen (Washington Redskins) (1.219) 22. Rich Gannon (Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders) (1.234) 21. Dan Marino (Miami Dolphins) (1.407) 20. Len Dawson (Kansas City Chiefs) (1.451) 19. Randall Cunningham (Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings) (1.457) 18. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) (1.464) 17. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) (1.511) 16. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) (1.523) 15. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) (1.539) 14. Drew Brees (San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints) (1.777) 13. Brett Favre (Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings) (1.795) 12. Jim Kelly (Buffalo Bills) (1.841) 11. Kurt Warner (St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals) (1.873) 10. John Elway (Denver Broncos) (1.957) Tier 1: Legend (2 or more wins above the average starter a season) 9. Ken Stabler (Oakland Raiders, Houston Oilers and New Orleans Saints) (2.174) 8. Steve Young (Tampa Bay Bucs and San Francisco 49ers) (2.198) 7. Roger Staubach (Dallas Cowboys) (2.224) 6. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) (2.248) 5. Danny White (Dallas Cowboys) (2.284) 4. Joe Montana (San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs) (2.441) 3. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos) (3.065) 2. Daryle Lamonica (Oakland Raiders) (3.365) 1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) (3.532)
  2. 1 point
    Let's break this down further: QB: Jimmy G- QB39; complete bust. RB: Saquon Barkley- RB1; great pick RB: LeSean McCoy- RB39; complete bust. WR: Davante Adams- WR2; great pick. WR: TY Hilton- WR14; solid pick. TE: Delanie Walker- TE92; complete bust. K: Mason Crosby- K5- Solid pick. Def: Saints- DST13- Meh pick. Onto the Bench, those people "poised for future stardom": QB: Joe Flacco, QB31- bust. RBs: Chris Thompson, RB66- bust. Sony Michel: RB35- pretty much a bust came on a bit at the end. Aaron Jones- RB24- very up/down dude, did some work later on. Jordan Wilkins- RB75- bust. Austin Ekeler- RB25- had a couple weeks with Gordon hurt, other than that, a meh pick. WRs: Mike Williams, LAC, WR32- Unless you had the foresight to start him in the game Keenan Allen went down, pretty much a bust. Ted Ginn, WR115; complete bust. TE: OJ Howard TE14- Better than Walker, but still not good. So to sum up, your team has three top-5 players- one of which is a kicker, and just six top-20 players, three of which are defense, kicker, and a TE. You hit on Barkley, Adams, and Hilton... and that's pretty much it. You may have played the waiver wire well and done well, but your bench is complete and utter garbage, and you have zero depth... anywhere. Congrats on the self-own, bro.
  3. 1 point
    Man you are one salty bitch, peperroni nips. Saquon was great, but he didn't beat Gurley by much- and only in PPR- and that's only because Gurley was hurt two games. How'd Jimmy G do for ya? Or the vast majority of your bench? Aaron Jones is about the only good guy in there for fantasy purposes.
  4. 1 point
    99. Ryan Fitzpatrick (St. Louis Rams 2005-2006, Cincinnati Bengals 2007-2008, Buffalo Bills 2009-2012, Tennessee Titans 2013, Houston Texans 2014, New York Jets 2015-2016, Tampa Bay Bucs 2017-Current) 4th Place Bills Quarterback and 7th Place Jets Quarterback Career Record 51-72-1 (41.53%) 93rd out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense: 43-17-1 (71.31%) 76th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 8-55-0 (12.70%) 100th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 61/124 (49.19%) 66th out of 102 Wins above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-1.123) (-1.136 with 2018 data) I should tell you that my numbers are only up to 2017, so it is possible that Ryan Fitzpatrick may have improved slightly over the past season (or not, who can say), but for whatever it's worth, sir Ryan here definitely deserves to be on the bottom of these kinds of lists. As a journeyman he's become sort of a legend around the league for supplant teams QB's with decent but not spectacular play, and then crapping the bed once he gained a starting role. Despite being on 7 teams in his career, he never started more than 16 games for any other teams besides the Bills and the Jets, but still managed to put out 124 games played (and counting) in his illustrious career. However despite teams constantly taking chances on him, he's proven to be below average in getting his teams over the hump, even when his teams put out good defensive performances. He's one of the better examples of performing well below what his defense gives him, at least most of the other guys around him have had hideous defenses to work with, Fitzpatrick's have been only slightly below average, and that scoring defense is hindered further by Fitzpatrick's propensity to throw interceptions. It's sort of a miracle that teams need to keep going to the Fitzpatrick well, but he just keeps finding a way to get in there.
  5. 1 point
    100. Jeff George (Indianapolis Colts 1990-1993, Atlanta Falcons 1994-1996, Oakland Raiders 1997-1998, Minnesota Vikings 1999, Washington Redskins 2000-2001) 4th Place Colts Quarterback, 6th Place Falcons Quarterback and 8th Place Raiders Quarterback Career Record 43-78-0 (35.54%) 101st out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense 32-14-0 (69.57%) 79th out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense 11-64-0 (14.67%) 99th out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense 46/121 (38.02%) 95th out of 102 Wins above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-1.162) Ah, Jeff George. This is probably a name you were expecting early. Well wait no longer, the original Sex Cannon has arrived. From being the first overall pick in Indianapolis, he flamed out quickly after his first contract, ended up in Atlanta doing the same thing before bouncing around to a few teams before finally retiring in 2006. Although he hadn't even sniffed the field since 2001. The big highlight of his career was that he led the league in passing yards in 1997 and... that's it. Historically he's a statue with a big giant arm so while you might get a lot of yards, you also get a lot of sacks, interceptions and terrible terrible throws. He had a lot of character issues, blew up with a lot of his coaches, and is just one of those classic busts. Still, he managed to make 121 starts over his career, which is a lot more than a lot of first round QB's can say.
  6. 1 point
    So we have our TGP offseason highlight. Razor, I look forward to logging in every day to see this.
  7. 1 point
    102. Archie Manning (New Orleans Saints 1971-1982, Houston Oilers 1982-1983, Minnesota Vikings 1983-1984) 7th Place Saints Quarterback Career Record: 33-97-2 (25.76%) 102nd out of 102 Record in Games with Good Defense: 27-22-1 (55.00%) 102nd out of 102 Record in Games with Bad Defense: 6-75-1 (7.93%) 102nd out of 102 Percentage of Games with Good Defense: 50/132 (37.88%) 96th out of 102 Wins above Average Starter in a 16 Game Season (-2.886) Bringing up the rear in our historic list is a QB who never managed to have a winning record as a QB. While people do like to blame the misfortunes on the poor team around him, Archie was not a stalwart by any measure. As a QB he's never had a winning season, he's never made the postseason, and he's never been an hallmark of efficiency either. It honestly makes one wonder how he was able to start so many games for the Saints before finally being replaced. In addition to having the worst record out of all QB's in the study, he also has the worst record when his defense plays well, at just a few hairs above .500, and the worst record when the defense doesn't show up, winning just 6 games and snatching 1 tie in 82 outings. Archie's Wins above Average are so bad that the next player has a larger gap between him and Archie, than he does between him and the player in 67th. These are the kind of numbers you'd expect from a Nathan Peterman, or a DeShone Kizer... not a QB who played for 14 years in the league. If you're pointing towards good genes making his sons successful, it's probably all on their mother's side.
  8. -1 points
  9. -1 points
    BC went on a full on negging spree and used the entirety of his 10 downvotes today on me. Butthurt much, dude? Sorry you can't handle the truth lol.