The AFC West: A Positional Assessment

[KempBolt 498]

This is something that I put together on another forum which the mods promptly buried. Interested to see what people think.

 

I did one of these last year and it ended up being hilariously wrong (was high on KC, down on DEN; didn't think Manning would bounce back from injury). However these sort of things tend to be good fodder for offseason discussions. For the purposes of comparing teams with differing defensive schemes, I am dividing the defensive groups into Interior Defensive Linemen (4-3 DT's, 3-4 DE's and NT's), Pass Rushers (4-3 DE's and 3-4 OLB's), and Linebackers (4-3 LB's and 3-4 ILB's).

 

Quarterback: Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders

 

It's frustrating that Denver was able to obtain one of the league's best quarterbacks on the open market. Manning looks poised to take another step forward in 2013, and we can only hope that age catches up with him sooner rather than later. Rivers needs to return to form badly, but out of the remaining three he is the only one who has proven capable of carrying an offense. If he's back to his old self, he makes the Chargers competitive. Smith will make the Chiefs better, but not (IMO) very good. He can manage games with a good roster around him, but I doubt he gets them to the playoffs (let alone win games once there). Flynn is a question mark in Oakland. Assuming he wins the job, it's hard to know what to expect. But we do know that the supporting cast won't be much help.

 

Backfield: Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Raiders

 

Though he has very little depth behind him, Charles is a dynamic playmaker who has been pretty consistent (and is still young). Given the inconsistencies of the other young feature backs in the division, that's enough for me to give KC the nod. And while I was not fond of him as a prospect, Davis has an insteresting combination of size/speed. The Broncos lack a featured player, but they have a lot of good role players. McGahee is still effective between the tackles, Hillman looks like a good change of pace back, and Moreno is a decent utility back. I have little faith in Ball being anything special, but that remains to be seen. In San Diego, Mathews continues to struggle with injuries but is capable when healthy. Woodhead should provide a nifty change of pace, while Brown is still a capable 3rd down back. McFadden is the only back in the league who makes Mathews look consistent/healthy by comparison. While talented, his struggles combined with questionable depth are enough for me to list Oakland at #4.

 

Pass Catchers: Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders

 

Thomas, Decker, and Welker are enough in their own right to place Denver atop this category. They're each dangerous in a distinct way and can easily all be on the field at the same time. Tamme and Dreessen are unspectacular, but reliable at tight end (and it's still unclear if one of the youngsters will ever emerge here). In San Diego, the addition of Allen makes this group pretty deep. Despite lacking a true #1 at this point, Floyd, Alexander, Brown, and the aforementioned 3rd round pick should all be contributors. Gates can still make a difference in the red zone, and Green looks like he'll be a very dangerous weapon in due time. In Kansas City, they have Bowe and... hmmm. Neither Baldwin, McCluster, nor Moeaki have developed as hoped. This group might be better than this projection but someone other than Dwayne needs to show something. Overpaying Avery didn't impress me. In Oakland, Moore and Streeter have nicely complimentary skillsets but there just isn't enough behind them at either WR or TE for me to put them anywhere other than last.

 

Offensive Line: Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers

 

While there is no doubt that Denver's offensive line benefits greatly from Manning's pocket presence and quick release, the lack of any kind of true hole among the starting front five makes them the class of the division IMO. Clady and Franklin are very strong bookends, while Walton is the closest thing this group has to a weak link. With the losses of Ryan Lilja and Eric Winston, the Chiefs make have taken a small step back on the line despite the addition of Fisher. Albert will be around another year, but Allen struggled mightily at LG as a rookie. Not a bad group by any stretch, but a potential weakness at one spot makes them #2 in my book. Oakland has a couple of nice pieces in Veldheer and Wisniewski (and an interesting one in Watson), but two of the five spots can easily be classified as weaknesses at the moment. The Chargers still have a lot of work to do. Fluker and Rinehart figure to be nice pieces, but Hardwick is fading and the other two spots are still a mystery.

 

Interior Defensive Line: Chargers, Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders

 

Though depth could be an issue, Liuget, Reyes, and Thomas are all three young, explosive, and disruptive players in the middle of the defense. It's not unreasonable to think that all three could get better. The Broncos were very fortunate to get Williams in the draft this year, and he ought to team with Vickerson and Knighton to give the Broncos a nice three man rotation. Kansas City's defensive line is composed of solid, but one dimensional players. Jackson, DeVito, and Poe have all been decent run defenders so far in their careers but inadequate as pass rushers. The latter still has the upside to develop, but he has to go out there and actually do it. Walker and Sims were shrewd acquisitions on McKenzie's part in Oakland, but both are better off as rotational depth rather than starters.

 

Pass Rushers: Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Raiders

 

Hali and Houston are both capable of double digit sacks. And while depth is an issue, no one else in the division boasts a starting tandem of edge rushers like the Chiefs. Denver might look odd here at #2, but their best actual pass rusher techically fits into my "Linebackers" category. While RE is a question mark, Wolfe's rookie season means that it's likely that one of their starting spots is locked down long term. As much as I believe 2013 will be a breakout year for Ingram, I can't place SD at #2 until he starts producing. Johnson is our next best player, but he isn't very dynamic despite being a solid role player. Oakland looks poised to be very kind to opposing QB's for another season, with Houston being the only viable starter on the roster (and possibly a better fit inside).

 

Linebackers: Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders

 

This is a tough category to rank because each team has some nice pieces. While Denver's LB corps as a whole doesn't impress me much, Miller is arguably the 2nd best defensive player in all of football... so I can't put them anywhere else. Butler is an excellent young player for San Diego, who only figures to get better. Te'o figures to be a 3 down compliment next to him. Johnson is the only think stopping me from ranking KC dead last, as they don't have much aside from him. Nico Johnson will be, IMO, a two down player at best. McKenzie was brilliant on a limited budget with his linebacking corps this offseason, as Burnett, Maiava, and Roach are all solid veterans. The recent additions of Moore and Burris also mean there could be a future here. It's simply the lack of any one true difference maker that causes me to put the Raiders last.

 

Secondary: Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Raiders

 

Flowers, Smith, and Robinson are an excellent top trio of cornerbacks. If Berry can become more consistent, this group will be dangerous. Their only true issue at this point is at the safety spot across from Berry. In Denver, the aging Bailey still had a very strong regular season. Harris and Parker are solid compliments, and Moore actually made strides last year despite the playoff struggles. This secondary is actually quite similar to the Chiefs, but their #1 corner is significantly older and the general talent level is a little lower. San Diego's secondary has seen a major facelift this offseason and could potentially outplay this projection. Cox is among the division's best when he's healthy, while Wright has looked good in very limited opportunities. Weddle is the league's best safety for my money, and Gilchrist is an interesting candidate for the spot across from him. Poor Oakland once again rounds out the list. I am a big fan of Hayden, but he's a rookie at a tough position. Their best player in the secondary ought to be Branch, but he seemed to struggle getting the hang of Allen's defensive schemes. A lot of work to be done there for the Raiders.

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

This is a good list, I actually agree across the board. Welcome to the board.

[KempBolt 498]

This is a good list, I actually agree across the board. Welcome to the board.

 

Thanks! Tried to be as objective as possible.

[AllYouNeedIsLovie 377]

Great post. I think you are spot on with pretty much everything other than I'd take the Chargers RB's over the Broncos and the Chiefs WR's over the Chargers. Really hard to do the RB's though given all the injury troubles this division seems to have at the position.

[KempBolt 498]

Great post. I think you are spot on with pretty much everything other than I'd take the Chargers RB's over the Broncos and the Chiefs WR's over the Chargers. Really hard to do the RB's though given all the injury troubles this division seems to have at the position.

 

Yeah the RB position is a tough one to rate in this division.

 

I'm interested to hear your reasoning on the Chiefs' WR. Are you just really high on Bowe, or do you like their depth? I think the position will be a strength of the offense in 2013. Alexander, Floyd, Brown, and Allen should all realistically contribute significantly. Meachem sucked, but having him as your #5 is still pretty good.

[AllYouNeedIsLovie 377]

Yeah the RB position is a tough one to rate in this division.

 

I'm interested to hear your reasoning on the Chiefs' WR. Are you just really high on Bowe, or do you like their depth? I think the position will be a strength of the offense in 2013. Alexander, Floyd, Brown, and Allen should all realistically contribute significantly. Meachem sucked, but having him as your #5 is still pretty good.

 

Pretty much just really high on Bowe. He is a top 15 WR in the NFL, IMO and is really the only guy for both of these teams that has consistently proven to be a good WR (save last year). Definitely think the Chargers have a lot of potential at WR, but until they prove themselves, I'm going to have to go with the Chiefs.

[KempBolt 498]

Pretty much just really high on Bowe. He is a top 15 WR in the NFL, IMO and is really the only guy for both of these teams that has consistently proven to be a good WR (save last year). Definitely think the Chargers have a lot of potential at WR, but until they prove themselves, I'm going to have to go with the Chiefs.

 

I guess I'm just not quite as high on him. As of now, he is the best WR between the two teams, but I am so thoroughly unimpressed with the rest of their group that I can't see him alone rating higher than our depth.

[AllYouNeedIsLovie 377]

I guess I'm just not quite as high on him. As of now, he is the best WR between the two teams, but I am so thoroughly unimpressed with the rest of their group that I can't see him alone rating higher than our depth.

 

I liked Baldwin coming out of the draft and I still like his potential. Plus, they signed Donnie Avery, who can make for a solid slot guy behind Bowe and Baldwin.

[Dutch 874]

Dwayne Bowe is a top receiving talent in this league. Definitely top 15. The Chiefs have some pieces on offense. Jamaal Charles is arguably a top 5 RB in the league. The way he will be utilized is vital. Donnie Avery can work the slot but it ultimately comes down to Alex Smith and in big games (if the Chiefs have any( Reid's play calling. They have play makers on the defensive side of the ball as well. They have a pretty good paper team so far. Just have to see how it plays out on the field.

[KempBolt 498]

I liked Baldwin coming out of the draft and I still like his potential. Plus, they signed Donnie Avery, who can make for a solid slot guy behind Bowe and Baldwin.

 

Thought we weren't judging on potential?

[AllYouNeedIsLovie 377]

Thought we weren't judging on potential?

 

True lol. But either way, I just feel like the Chargers receiving corps is way too unproven to put ahead of the Chiefs when they have a guy like Bowe. Baldwin is only one guy and if he lives up to that potential, they will have a very scary receiving unit. I mean, even Donnie Avery has been pretty just as productive as anyone on the Chargers receiving corps.

[AL_Royalty 489]

I agree with almost everything here. Nice post man. The only thing that I have a problem with is how you could say the things about the Chiefs LB's that you said. You do realize that they had THREE PRO BOWL LINEBACKERS last season, right? Hali, Houston, and DJ are just a nasty trio.

 

I think by season's end the Chiefs will be an easy #2 in the receiver category, but just going off of past performance I can understand why you'd put SD over them. Cassel was a one read guy. It was either Bowe, a check-down, or a pick. None of the other pass catchers stood a chance.

[KempBolt 498]

True lol. But either way, I just feel like the Chargers receiving corps is way too unproven to put ahead of the Chiefs when they have a guy like Bowe. Baldwin is only one guy and if he lives up to that potential, they will have a very scary receiving unit. I mean, even Donnie Avery has been pretty just as productive as anyone on the Chargers receiving corps.

 

Floyd has been consistently more productive than Avery. Alexander put up better numbers through only 9 games last season. But I understand that I am basing a lot on Brown and Allen. But I think those two are safe bets. We'll have to wait and see.

[KempBolt 498]

I agree with almost everything here. Nice post man. The only thing that I have a problem with is how you could say the things about the Chiefs LB's that you said. You do realize that they had THREE PRO BOWL LINEBACKERS last season, right? Hali, Houston, and DJ are just a nasty trio.

 

I think by season's end the Chiefs will be an easy #2 in the receiver category, but just going off of past performance I can understand why you'd put SD over them. Cassel was a one read guy. It was either Bowe, a check-down, or a pick. None of the other pass catchers stood a chance.

 

Thank you sir.

 

Because half the division runs a 3-4 and half a 4-3, the way I divided things was a little funky. Denver and Oakland's ends got graded against KC and SD's OLB's under the heading of "pass rushers." Hali and Houston are the reason why I have you guys first under than designation.

 

SD and KC's ILB's then were graded against all of Denver and Oakland's linebackers. Which is why I have you guys 3rd in that category, because Derrick Johnson, while a stud, is the only player I like out of that group for Kansas City.

 

And oddly enough, I happen to believe that SD's receivers will be considered 2nd by season's end. What a coincidence!

Edited June 11, 2013 by KempBolt

[housemd 338]

Great post. And lol those mods on another forum

 

I'd just put the Chiefs receivers over Chargers ones. Everything else is perfect.

[Stewy 8]

I guess the only one that I have real problems agreeing with you on would be that of the Secondary. Not exactly sure how you can place the Chiefs over the Broncos. Champ Bailey yes is another year older but still proved to be a top 10 Corner in the NFL. He only allowed 1 touchdown during the regular season and that was with being lined up against the number 1 receiver every game. Chris Harris gave up the 5th fewest yards and tied for 9th in fewest receptions allowed. He lead both categories in the AFC West of any Corner while Champ was 2nd in fewest yards given up of any starting Corner that is now starting in the AFC West. So the Broncos have the top 2 corners in the AFC West in performance from last year. Then they added DRC who was a pro bowl Corner just a few years ago as the number 3 corner on the team. Moore minus his playoff game played better than Berry and the Broncos at the other safety spot have 3 guys with starting experience battling for the one spot.

 

I guess I would just like to see your reasoning behind why you think the Chiefs have the better overall group considering the stats favor the Broncos by a long margin at this time.

[KempBolt 498]

I guess the only one that I have real problems agreeing with you on would be that of the Secondary. Not exactly sure how you can place the Chiefs over the Broncos. Champ Bailey yes is another year older but still proved to be a top 10 Corner in the NFL. He only allowed 1 touchdown during the regular season and that was with being lined up against the number 1 receiver every game. Chris Harris gave up the 5th fewest yards and tied for 9th in fewest receptions allowed. He lead both categories in the AFC West of any Corner while Champ was 2nd in fewest yards given up of any starting Corner that is now starting in the AFC West. So the Broncos have the top 2 corners in the AFC West in performance from last year. Then they added DRC who was a pro bowl Corner just a few years ago as the number 3 corner on the team. Moore minus his playoff game played better than Berry and the Broncos at the other safety spot have 3 guys with starting experience battling for the one spot.

 

I guess I would just like to see your reasoning behind why you think the Chiefs have the better overall group considering the stats favor the Broncos by a long margin at this time.

 

All good points. Perhaps I let projection creep in too much on that category. I know all about Champ and Harris. But I think just the way Champ ended the year caused me to rate Flowers more highly. Which may or may not happen, but isn't a very fair way to do this I grant you.

 

And I'd agree that Harris is a better nickel than Robinson projects to be there. Also Moore was actually better than Berry, it's true. Though now Bruton might start so who knows what to expect there. I do believe that Smith is better than Carter. And if I was a Bronco fan, I'd be hoping for Carter to start over DRC, who was overrated at his best and straight up sucked for the last ~3 years.

[BJORN 679]

With Freeney, I would probably push SD into 2nd in pass rushing. Losing Ingram hurts....

[Stewy 8]

All good points. Perhaps I let projection creep in too much on that category. I know all about Champ and Harris. But I think just the way Champ ended the year caused me to rate Flowers more highly. Which may or may not happen, but isn't a very fair way to do this I grant you.

 

And I'd agree that Harris is a better nickel than Robinson projects to be there. Also Moore was actually better than Berry, it's true. Though now Bruton might start so who knows what to expect there. I do believe that Smith is better than Carter. And if I was a Bronco fan, I'd be hoping for Carter to start over DRC, who was overrated at his best and straight up sucked for the last ~3 years.

 

He was overrated in his time with the Eagles but remember Aso before he went to the Eagles was considered either the best or 2nd best corner in the league yet looked well below average going to the Eagles. In fact that whole defense looked below average all of a sudden. Usually when that happens it boils down to coaching not actual playing ability by the players.

 

I do think DRC will start over Carter as Carter had a couple of good games last year but he had some horrible ones as well. DRC seems to fall a lot into that same boat but he has bigger play ability with his size and speed so would still rather have him on the field. He is the one player I am most looking forward to as a Bronco fan that we added during FA so I guess I have him rated a bit differently than you do. At least at some point DRC showed he was Pro Bowl caliber in talent where Smith has never even come close to that level. I just expect more from DRC than I do from Smith this season.

[KempBolt 498]

He was overrated in his time with the Eagles but remember Aso before he went to the Eagles was considered either the best or 2nd best corner in the league yet looked well below average going to the Eagles. In fact that whole defense looked below average all of a sudden. Usually when that happens it boils down to coaching not actual playing ability by the players.

 

I do think DRC will start over Carter as Carter had a couple of good games last year but he had some horrible ones as well. DRC seems to fall a lot into that same boat but he has bigger play ability with his size and speed so would still rather have him on the field. He is the one player I am most looking forward to as a Bronco fan that we added during FA so I guess I have him rated a bit differently than you do. At least at some point DRC showed he was Pro Bowl caliber in talent where Smith has never even come close to that level. I just expect more from DRC than I do from Smith this season.

 

FWIW, I thought DRC was really overrated in Arizona as well. Big, athletic plays created a reputation of a shut down corner, even though he seemed to have a lot of negative plays as well.

[Stewy 8]

FWIW, I thought DRC was really overrated in Arizona as well. Big, athletic plays created a reputation of a shut down corner, even though he seemed to have a lot of negative plays as well.

 

That is fair. He is a risk taker and at times has definitely gotten himself burned. I guess I just expect with the coaching staff the Broncos have and their ability to coach up players especially on the defensive side of the ball that DRC will have a good season. If guys like Harris and Carter who were undrafted can come in and have a good year then I expect DRC to as well. Plus he won't be asked to cover number 1 receivers like he was in Arizona.

[KempBolt 498]

That is fair. He is a risk taker and at times has definitely gotten himself burned. I guess I just expect with the coaching staff the Broncos have and their ability to coach up players especially on the defensive side of the ball that DRC will have a good season. If guys like Harris and Carter who were undrafted can come in and have a good year then I expect DRC to as well. Plus he won't be asked to cover number 1 receivers like he was in Arizona.

 

The defensive backs coach under whom Carter and Harris went from undrafted free agents to productive NFL players is named Ron Milus. As of this season, he is the Chargers' defensive backs coach .

 

I don't think anyone can say why exactly he was let go in Denver, but he seemed to me to be a scapegoat for the poor performance of Bailey and Moore against Baltimore in the playoffs. I think he will be really good for San Diego.

[Stewy 8]

The defensive backs coach under whom Carter and Harris went from undrafted free agents to productive NFL players is named Ron Milus. As of this season, he is the Chargers' defensive backs coach .

 

I don't think anyone can say why exactly he was let go in Denver, but he seemed to me to be a scapegoat for the poor performance of Bailey and Moore against Baltimore in the playoffs. I think he will be really good for San Diego.

 

Actually reports were he was going to be let go before the playoff game incident even happened. He had been clashing with some of the players. I was more speaking to the fact that Fox and Del Rio are both known for being great defensive minds in the NFL. They both have a teaching mentality to their coaching methods and players have spoken very highly of that fact. When they brought in DRC to speak with him he said they spent the whole meeting showing him what he had been doing wrong and then explained how they were going to coach him up to improve on those things. He said that teaching mentality was a big reason he picked the Broncos.

[KempBolt 498]

Actually reports were he was going to be let go before the playoff game incident even happened. He had been clashing with some of the players. I was more speaking to the fact that Fox and Del Rio are both known for being great defensive minds in the NFL. They both have a teaching mentality to their coaching methods and players have spoken very highly of that fact. When they brought in DRC to speak with him he said they spent the whole meeting showing him what he had been doing wrong and then explained how they were going to coach him up to improve on those things. He said that teaching mentality was a big reason he picked the Broncos.

 

I'd be interested to see those reports if you've got them.

 

Would seem an odd hire for McCoy to make if that was the case, as he would have been around that strife and known more about it than anyone on the outside.

[KempBolt 498]

NVM... I found an article on it by the Denver Post that alludes to his style clashing with players. Still would be interested to know what exactly happened as Fox is the one that hired him, knew him coming into Denver, and McCoy- obviously knowing him- hired him right after he was let go. Makes me wonder if the problem was really one sided. I guess we'll see what he's worth depending on the Chargers' performance in the secondary.