Russia and Crimea

[southgadawg 52]

I will readily admit that this is a touchy situation...to begin with I doubt seriously we (the American public) have all the facts. I will say that it doesn't surprise me that Russia has went into Crimea with troops. There are stronger Russian ethnic ties there compared to some of the other parts of the Ukraine as well as the resources and infrastructure there is important to Russia (major ports on the Black Sea for instance). Obama claimed before hand there would be significant costs for Russia if they sent in their military which is now happening. I think Obama has very little cards that he can or will play. Once again Putin has shown that he cares little what the 'rest of the world' thinks and is being aggressive any chance he gets. The biggest thing I am afraid of is that other countries (most notably North Korea) will continue to downgrade their opinion of this current administration and perhaps start something major. I have no real clue what we should do about the situation (if anything) but I feel as something have started rolling that may end up becoming an avalanche of events over the course of time.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/russias-upper-house-approves-putins-military-intervention-plan-n41861

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/russias-upper-house-approves-putins-military-intervention-plan-n41861

 

http://news.msn.com/world/russia-sent-several-hundred-troops-into-ukraine-us-official?ocid=ansnewrel1

Edited March 1, 2014 by southgadawg

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Well you don't need to worry about North Korea, they can't do shit. They're the kid who talks a lot, puffs his chest out, but has a glass jaw and can't dent a pillow.

 

One thing the administration has shown is they are easily trolled (see Julian Assange, see Edward Snowden.) Trolled as in they easily could of not made those leaks such a globally big deal, all they had to do was come out address the leaks and acknowledge they have learned about how these programs went wrong in certain areas and that they were going to put a stop to it and deal with those at fault swiftly (even if they weren't going to, just saying it makes you look better than you would by feeding it and thus making it a big global deal and making yourself look even worse and tyrannical.)

 

Snowden was like shooting ducks in a pond for Putin's administration, they swooped in and waved him around like a huge "L" by the U.S. to parade and mock them with. They're continually making a fool of the Obama administration and seizing every opportunity they can to do so.

 

Fact remains Russia still ain't shit without China though. They're married if they want to flex any influence to match the U.S. But they're definitely making the administration look like clowns. Nothing serious will come of it any time soon, it's just winning P.R. points at this stage.

[OSUViking 505]

Fact remains Russia still ain't shit without China though. They're married if they want to flex any influence to match the U.S. But they're definitely making the administration look like clowns. Nothing serious will come of it any time soon, it's just winning P.R. points at this stage.

 

More like the other way around. A lot of China's modern weaponry systems are either direct rip-offs of Russian technology or are developments from them.

 

Anyway, regardless of Russia's international presence relative to the United States or China, this is right on their border. The balance tilts in favor of Russia here. It's kind of nerve-racking that we are actually somewhat close to a major war in the Ukraine, and hardly anyone around here knows about it. People can't be non-nonchalant about this. A major player in Europe has occupied the land of another major player in Europe. This isn't Russia invading Georgia. People care about the Ukraine, and the Ukraine has some geopolitical pull in Europe.

[CampinWithaMissingPerson 2,025]

Yeah I guess me talking about NK then going into Russia/China was worded badly but I was more talking about China's economic power. Common knowledge they been using old Cold War Russian military vehicles like MIGs and other weapons for awhile. Also like you said, the Chinese are notorious for counterfeiting and copying off everyone else — usually ending in a shittier version. Hell they make fake EGGS there. It's like they can't design anything of their own they have to copy

Edited March 1, 2014 by CampinWithGoatSampson

[OSUViking 505]

^Pretty much. However, we can't diminish Russia's economic influence, either. They supply natural gas to all of Europe, and it gives them major leverage. The whole reason this became an issue is because the Ukraine was faced with a decision of a pro-EU trade agreement or a great natural gas deal with Russia. They chose the latter.

[OSUViking 505]

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=287_1393605865

 

Russian choppers in Crimea. They look like Mi-24s, to me.

[Guest Phailadelphia]

Russia doesn't want to go to war over this anymore than the US or EU does. Not saying this isn't a big deal because it kinda is, but I don't think anyone is going to war over it.

[OSUViking 505]

Russia doesn't want to go to war over this anymore than the US or EU does. Not saying this isn't a big deal because it kinda is, but I don't think anyone is going to war over it.

 

We can't say for sure. If it does get that far, (I don't mean to sound like an agitator) then a very large-scale war in Eastern Europe is a likely possibility. The upcoming referendum is going to leave one side very mad, so I think given the extreme tensions that could lead to further in-fighting among Ukrainians.

 

Russia is kind of doing what it did with South Ossettia here.

[southgadawg 52]

I am not saying we should do anything militarily but to be honest when does it stop? It seems that there is a lot of political turmoil in the US right now and we have very little political clout I think with much of the world anymore. This enables Russia or any other aggressor nation to seize assets whenever they get the opportunity. I wonder also what the EU is thinking. There are certainly a lot of factors that we don't know yet and things will become clearer with time...but at what costs?

[OSUViking 505]

I do think we need to take a stand. If NATO mobilizes, Russia doesn't really have a choice but to back down.

 

Also, Russians have air defenses, naval infantry, special forces, and armor out-and-about. Not just in the base, they have them on the streets of Crimea.

 

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=2eb_1393694328

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b53_1393699552

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d6d_1393682466

[Bucman 891]

Go Russia.

[southgadawg 52]

The UN security Council is meeting about the situation...my biggest concern is that Russia is a permanent member on that Council and I am not mistaken holds a veto vote. Of course I am not sure of how it all works either:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/01/un-security-council-to-hold-open-televised-meeting-on-growing-crisis-in-ukraine/

 

Also President Obama has reportedly told Putin that this may harm Russia's standing in the International Community. For some reason I think Mr. Obama is dreadfully out of touch with what motivates Putin...I don't think he cares a bit about what the world thinks about him or Russia's standing in the international community.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/u-s-suspends-role-russia-g8-summit-after-obama-putin-n42116

 

At this time however unless the EU is the one pushing it I think Russia has made off with Crimea and no one is going to do much about it.

[OSUViking 505]

The course of action that I think the US should take is to mobilize with its allies in NATO and Europe. If the West shows balls against Russia for once under Putin, then he will have no choice but to back down. He's already made himself look like the aggressor. If he escalates it after the West puts its cards down, the war will be on him.

 

This isn't a pretty situation. Russia really has no business being anywhere but its base in Sevastopol, yet it landed 2,000 reinforcements and has moved armored and mobile air defenses throughout Crimea. The video I saw seemed to display either S-300s or S-400s, though I would put my money on the former given the situation. I don't see any situation where we come out of this situation without severe tensions with Russia for years. Best case scenario, we get them to pull out of Crimea but relations never recover, in my opinion. Worse case? Warfare between NATO and Russia in Eastern Europe, which might not be a war that NATO could win. I only see said war escalating to nuclear if NATO somehow pushes Russia back into its own borders and decides to cross, but we can't tell with Putin. He could pull the nuclear option at the first sight of defeat.

 

This is part of the problem with decades of pointless wars and aggression against meaningless nations. I, as a pretty anti-interventionist person, truly believe that this is something we should show up for. If it escalates to war, I don't think we should sit this one out. Ukraine may be poor, but they are a major player in Eastern Europe. However, the US is understandably war-weary from the Middle East. It's terrible, really.

 

Either way, unless Russia invades and completely overruns the Ukraine, whatever Russia doesn't have after this crisis will likely join NATO. Wouldn't surprise me if NATO rushes to push Georgia in, either. However, Obama doesn't have a good track record with Putin, so what we should do to put Russia in its place likely isn't what we will do.

[Guest Phailadelphia]

There are better options than military mobilization.

[OSUViking 505]

There are better options than military mobilization.

 

I really don't think so. Russia knows we won't react, so they aren't going to bend to diplomatic or economic pressure.

 

EDIT: If Russia decides to pull-out and compromise with Ukraine, it will be because Russia wants to do so. NOT because Obama sent a few strongly-worded letters and condemnations.

Edited March 2, 2014 by OSUViking

[southgadawg 52]

There are better options than military mobilization.

First I won't say that there AREN'T better options than military mobilization but I clearly don't see them.

 

Secondly Phail if you are sure that there are better options then why don't you share your knowledge with us and educate us on why you feel that the options you have give are the best ones.

 

This is a friendly discussion about a real world tragedy and hopefully something peaceful will come of it but I admittedly am pessimistic about those chances at the moment.

[Thanatos 2,847]

Why are we concerned with Russia taking over Crimea?

 

I am not willing to bluff, if that's what you guys are saying, and send troops to the border of Russia.

 

What if Putin calls the bluff and engages? I don't know if the US wins a war with Russia at this time. Russia is one hell of a military power and this would be fought on their doorstep. Are we willing to take that risk over Crimea?

[ATL_Predator+ 1,196]

No way we could even fathom a war with Russia. As a member of the US military...the cutbacks are significant...not just in numbers...but in equipment and technology as well.

 

We are in a transition phase in the military now that the war in Afghanistan is to be over by years end. There really isn't anything we can do if Russia did do something.

[southgadawg 52]

No way we could even fathom a war with Russia. As a member of the US military...the cutbacks are significant...not just in numbers...but in equipment and technology as well.

 

We are in a transition phase in the military now that the war in Afghanistan is to be over by years end. There really isn't anything we can do if Russia did do something.

I have to agree with this....we are not totally a toothless tiger but America's ability to engage enemies on multiple fronts and to even thinking about facing a major power in what used to be called a conventional war is VERY limited.

[Guest Phailadelphia]

 

There are better options than military mobilization.

 

I really don't think so. Russia knows we won't react, so they aren't going to bend to diplomatic or economic pressure.

 

EDIT: If Russia decides to pull-out and compromise with Ukraine, it will be because Russia wants to do so. NOT because Obama sent a few strongly-worded letters and condemnations.

 

 

 

 

There are better options than military mobilization.

First I won't say that there AREN'T better options than military mobilization but I clearly don't see them.

 

Secondly Phail if you are sure that there are better options then why don't you share your knowledge with us and educate us on why you feel that the options you have give are the best ones.

 

This is a friendly discussion about a real world tragedy and hopefully something peaceful will come of it but I admittedly am pessimistic about those chances at the moment.

 

 

Hit them where it hurts. The Russian economy is extremely oligarchical. Those oligarchs' money is in European banks and assets. Start revoking & banning visas and implement bank sanctions.

 

Renew the efforts to install a US missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

 

Strengthen Western powers bordering Russia, ie. Georgia, Poland, etc.

 

This doesn't have to escalate to military mobilization. But on that front, the idea that the US suddenly lacks military clout under Obama make zero sense to me. If there's anyone in this scenario that lacks political and military clout, it's Russia, which exposed itself by invading Ukraine without any justifiable reasons. It's the shit we read about in 18th and 19th century history books. That isn't going to work in the 21st.

Edited March 2, 2014 by Phailadelphia

[OSUViking 505]

No way we could even fathom a war with Russia. As a member of the US military...the cutbacks are significant...not just in numbers...but in equipment and technology as well.

 

And Russia can't afford a war with us. That is the whole point of mobilizing. We put them in a situation they literally cannot afford.

 

 

 

We are in a transition phase in the military now that the war in Afghanistan is to be over by years end. There really isn't anything we can do if Russia did do something.

 

There is plenty we could do. Poland has already moved around some of its armor near the border. You're right in saying the US alone can't do shit, but if NATO actually does its job for once Russia will have no logical choice but to back down.

Why are we concerned with Russia taking over Crimea?

 

I am not willing to bluff, if that's what you guys are saying, and send troops to the border of Russia.

 

What if Putin calls the bluff and engages? I don't know if the US wins a war with Russia at this time. Russia is one hell of a military power and this would be fought on their doorstep. Are we willing to take that risk over Crimea?

 

 

No. No one outside of Russia cares about Crimea, really, because Russia has a base there that allows them to think their Black Sea Fleet is significant. The problem here is that Russia has made it clear that it will move into Eastern Ukraine if it sees it fit. NATO has a lot of concentration in the area with Poland, Turkey, Romania, etc. They aren't necessarily huge powers, but they provide enough logistical ease that it would allow NATO to engage in Ukraine. Russia can't afford this war - literally - either.

[OSUViking 505]

 

Hit them where it hurts. The Russian economy is extremely oligarchical. Those oligarchs' money is in European banks and assets. Start revoking & banning visas and implement bank sanctions.

 

Renew the efforts to install a US missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

 

Strengthen Western powers bordering Russia, ie. Georgia, Poland, etc.

 

This doesn't have to escalate to military mobilization. But on that front, the idea that the US suddenly lacks military clout under Obama make zero sense to me. If there's anyone in this scenario that lacks political and military clout, it's Russia, which exposed itself by invading Ukraine without any justifiable reasons. It's the shit we read about in 18th and 19th century history books. That isn't going to work in the 21st.

 

 

Russia has far more political and economic leverage that it can pull than Europe does by revoking financial interests of Russian politicians. If they shut off the gas lines to Europe, then they will suffer severely.

 

What you're suggesting is also essentially the beginning of a new cold war, which is a likely possibility at this stage. However, if Russia moves into Eastern Ukraine NATO mobilization needs to be an option. At that point, mobilization would be the only thing that tells Russia that they can't do what they want in Eastern Europe.

 

However, I agree that we should expand NATO and fortify it. Georgia should be admitted, and so too should the Ukraine if the pro-EU faction remains in power after the elections. Something tells me, however, that if said faction remains in power and doesn't compromise with the pro-Russia factions, we will be back to square one. Something that concerns me is the reported connection between the Euromaidan Protests and various far-right militant/political groups (such as Right Sector) in Ukraine.

[Guest Phailadelphia]

Sanctions lead to war, but military mobilization doesn't?

 

I'll have to disagree with you on Russia's leverage. Shutting off gas lines hurts them too. If Russia had any leverage they would have used it. Invasion of Ukraine was an admission that they both lack leverage and lack any sort of viable 21st century foreign policy strategy.

 

We're vastly overrating Russia here, IMO.

[OSUViking 505]

Sanctions lead to war, but military mobilization doesn't?

 

I'll have to disagree with you on Russia's leverage. Shutting off gas lines hurts them too. If Russia had any leverage they would have used it. Invasion of Ukraine was an admission that they both lack leverage and lack any sort of viable 21st century foreign policy strategy.

 

We're vastly overrating Russia here, IMO.

 

I don't recall saying they would lead to war. If my wording suggested that, I apologize. I meant to say that sanctions will likely result in a new cold war. However, pretty much the majority of outcomes result in a new cold war or in a completely new dynamic in Russian-Euro/American relations (and not a good dynamic). I will say this, though, that I don't think sanctions will be nearly as effective as mobilizing forces. Can we agree to disagree on this?

 

Russia would hurt, but they've used it as leverage before. They use it as leverage against the Ukraine, specifically. Most of Europe is heavily dependent upon Russia's natural gas, with the exception being France because close to 80% of their energy is produced by fission reactors. I also think that their invasion of Crimea shows that they [think] they know they can get away with this. Obama and Kerry's comments thus far have been pretty hollow statements, especially since NATO wouldn't even consider mobilization (at least this was reported). I think this is Putin playing hardball and adamantly believing he will get away with it, rather than him not knowing how to play global politics.

[Guest Phailadelphia]

Russia is no longer on our level, so I don't think "Cold War II" is an apt prediction. I don't think this could escalate to a World War either. Russia is largely on their own here. China has no interest in stepping on our toes and North Korea is a small dog--all bark, no bite.