SteVo's 2011 Mock Draft 4.0

[SteVo+ 3,702]

With Pro Days winding down and our calendars turned to April, we're getting close to draft day. Teams are scheduling visits with prospects, and draft stock continues to rise and fall for various players, and draft day grows nearer by the day. Having studied many scouting reports recently, I felt compelled to take this mock all the way through the second round. It gets a little convoluted because I'm not predicting trades (in this mock, anyway), but it's still a fun way to see where players might end up. So here it is, my fourth mock draft of the offseason.

 

The format is the same as usual: draft picks in the image below with numbered explanations below said image. I apologize if this is a little inconvenient or awkward; I complete my mocks in Microsoft Excel so this is the easiest way to transfer it.

 

 

1. This pick appears to have come down to a battle of the top quarterback prospects Newton and Blaine Gabbert, with A.J. Green and Marcell Dareus as dark horse candidates. I agree with the new regime, new quarterback line of thinking, and I believe that Carolina will choose Newton over Gabbert for his superior skill set, and because Gabbert has a lot of accuracy issues on his tape.

2. This pick is shaping out to be the easiest to predict in the entire draft. Denver doesn't seem prepared to take a quarterback here; they'll address their biggest need instead with one of the safest picks in the draft.

3. A lot of people are now mocking Von Miller to Buffalo with this pick, but I think Miller's talents would be somewhat wasted in a 4-3 defense. Then again, the Bills could take Miller and convert to the 3-4, or they could misuse his talent because, well, they're the Bills. Still, the silver lining for me is that I think Buffalo comes out of the first round with a quarterback. With Cam Newton off the board, Gabbert's their guy.

4. This pick comes down to arguably the two greatest prospects in this draft: Green and Patrick Peterson. Which will be higher on Cincinnati's board? I don't think it matters, because the Bengals don't strike me as a team that drafts their board; they'll go for need here. Word is that Cincinnati is confident they can re-sign Jonathan Joseph, which means that wide receiver is the bigger need. And we all know how much the Bengals love playmakers.

5. If Patrick Peterson falls to this pick, the Cardinals will have a tough decision to make. Getting a pass rusher is easily their biggest priority, but Peterson and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie would make a great cornerback tandem. This pick could very easily change before draft day, but right now I'll give Miller the edge.

6. I'm giving Cleveland Peterson for a few reasons: I can't stomach seeing the best prospect in the draft fall any farther, and GM Tom Heckert drafts his board. That means that Peterson is the pick over Robert Quinn. Also, it's not like cornerback isn't a need for the Browns. They have nobody next to Joe Haden; add Peterson to a defense that already has T.J. Ward and you have the potential for one of the best secondaries in football.

7. San Francisco needs secondary help something awful, and I could see them swapping picks with Cleveland or Arizona to make sure they get Peterson (if he falls). I think it's more likely, however, that the Niners stay put, because Amukamara seems a lock to fall to them, and if he does, it's a no-brainer. San Fran will look for a quarterback in round two.

8. I've been mocking Fairley to Tennessee for awhile, and now there's some buzz supporting it. Smokescreen? I don't think so. With his red flags, Fairley is a near-lock to fall to the Titans here, and he's too good a player at too big a need to pass up.

9. After some waffling, I've determined that Dallas will use their highest draft pick to address the offensive line. Smith is the physical, athletic type of lineman Jerry Jones likes. Any concerns about his ability to play left tackle are irrelevant because the Cowboys have Doug Free entrenched at left tackle; Smith would replace Marc Colombo at right tackle. Dallas will probably try to trade down a few spots before making this pick.

10. With so many needs, the Redskins need to just draft the best player available here, and that's Quinn. He projects as a rush linebacker in Washington's 3-4 defense. I could see the Skins trading down to acquire picks and then take a quarterback (Mike Shanahan is "reportedly" enamored with Jake Locker), but if they can't move down, I don't see them reaching for one.

11. The Texans would love for Prince Amukamara or Robert Quinn to fall, but since they're both gone, Houston must look elsewhere. Aldon Smith is a raw prospect with enormous potential and has drawn comparisons to DeMarcus Ware. Wade Phillips was hired as Houston's defensive coordinator this offseason. There's a pattern in there somewhere.

12. I can see Minnesota addressing their offensive line with Anthony Castonzo here, but I think Cameron Jordan is a highly underrated prospect who would be too good to pass up for Minnesota in this case. In the Vikings' 4-3 defense, Jordan would play defensive end, but has the size and the versatility to kick inside in nickel passages.

13. The Lions seem deadset on addressing the offensive line and protecting Matt Stafford, right? Wrong. Detroit drafts the highest player on their board, and if Jones falls to here, he'd be just that. And hey, if Detroit can't give Stafford some protection, they'll give him another weapon.

14. Julio Jones would have drawn consideration, but with him off the board, the Rams address their biggest need on the defensive line. Liuget is a very solid prospect who hasn't been talked about a lot, but he makes a whole lot of sense here.

15. With a lot of buzz regarding Mike Ingram's injuries and lack of big play ability, I'm now more confident than ever Miami will not take Ingram with this pick. I've been mocking Pouncey to them for awhile, and I'll stick with that. I'll also say the same thing I do in every mock: I see the Dolphins trading down above all; they are without a second-rounder and want to build up more picks.

16. Kerrigan makes a whole lot of sense for what GM Gene Smith looks for: lots of production in college, high character, good work ethic, and leadership qualities as a bonus. He's a safe pick and would fill a big need for the Jags. I strongly considered Christian Ponder and think he's still a good possibility because he fits the same profile, but I think injury concerns will keep him out of the first round.

17. This is the first of New England's four picks in the first two rounds. My guess is Bill Belichick will draft his board and slowly fill all of the Patriots' needs. In this case, right tackle may not be the biggest need, but Castonzo is way too big a steal to pass up.

18. The Chargers need a five-technique player, and they'd be very lucky to have Watt fall to them here. I wouldn't be surprised to see San Diego trade up to secure Watt from a team like New England who could also be interested in him.

19. Linebacker may be their biggest need, but the Giants don't like drafting them in the first round, and I don't see that changing this year. Instead I see the G-Men getting some youth on the offensive line. That starts here with Solder, an athletic player who has a chance to play left tackle.

20. Concern about Bowers has flared up in the wake of his awful Pro Day, and his draft stock appears to be plummeting. Still, I don't see any reason to be concerned about the knee; he just had a bad Pro Day. I don't think he'll fall out of the first round altogether, and he's a perfect fit for Tampa, a team who needs a defensive end as much as anybody.

21. Scott Pioli could go several different ways with this pick, but for now I'm sticking with my pick that he makes a slight reach to fill a void at nose tackle. I could definitely see an offensive lineman like Gabe Carimi here as well.

22. Wilkerson is getting a lot of buzz lately; it appears that the media is just now realizing how good of a prospect he is. As much as the Colts need defensive tackles, I'm sure Bill Polian's noticed the kid by now.

23. This pick makes sense for the Eagles in many ways. Carimi has drawn comparisons to Jon Runyan and fits perfectly into Andy Reid's style of offense. The Eagles like to convert tackles to guards so Carimi can start at right guard if he doesn't replace Winston Justice right away at right tackle.

24. I've been thinking Mark Ingram would stop falling at this point, but his aforementioned injury concerns and lack of big play ability will push him down a little farther. In the meantime, the Saints get another piece for their front seven in Clayborn, a prospect drawing mixed reviews from scouts.

25. Smith's character concerns seem to be pushing him down draft boards, but I'm still mocking him to Seattle--for now. I think the Seahawks will draft their highest rated player over major needs (as they did twice in the first round last year) and I think Pete Carrol would like the opportunity to give Smith a second chance.

26. I think the Ravens would love for a guy like Muhammad Wilkerson or Corey Liuget to fall to them, but it's not a big deal if neither does because Sherrod would be a great pick here. He could play left tackle from day one, and the Ravens could push Michael Oher to the right side.

27. There's been noticeable buzz about the Falcons trying to trade up for A.J. Green. Sounds very bold but I could definitely see it. If they don't trade up, however, GM Thomas Dimitrof is not going to reach for a receiver here; he'll take the best defensive player on his board. In this case I think that's Paea, a guy who made headlines for setting the bench press record but will sneak into the first round because he has the tape to back it up.

28. After getting an offensive tackle with their first pick, the Patriots address their biggest need here: pass rush. Ayers' draft stock has quietly dropped over the last few months, but I still think he's a first rounder, and a 3-4 rush linebacker might be the best position for him in the NFL.

29. The more I think about this pick, the more I think the Bears are going to make a slight reach for Benjamin Ijalana in an attempt to shore up their offensive line. But for now, the pick is Houston, who appears to be a first-round prospect again after several scouts (including Mike Mayock) claimed he had a questionable motor.

30. Rex Ryan has the Jets defense playing at an elite level, and he's been doing so without talented pass rushers. He can rely a little less on his scheme by drafting one here in Reed, a rising prospect who some think is a lock to in the first round.

31. I said in a previous mock that the Steelers tend to make picks that seem strange at first, but actually make a lot of sense and pan out. Williams fits that profile. He fits well into Pittsburgh's defensive scheme, his draft stock is rising at the right time, and he fills a big need in Pittsburgh's secondary.

32. The departure of Cullen Jenkins was expected, but Johnny Jolly's arrest makes defensive end a significant need for Green Bay. I know GM Ted Thompson doesn't draft for need (wisely), but I think Heyward would be the guy in this spot.

33. At the top of the second round now, the Patriots take the highest player on their board. The Heisman winner is well worth it at 33rd overall, and could make a very nice running tandem with Danny Woodhead.

34. If the Bills take a quarterback in the first round I expect the rest of their draft to focus on the defensive side. That starts here with Wilson, the closest thing to an impact linebacker as there is in this class. A second-rounder for a reason, but he's got the potential. If this seems like a bit of a reach, hey, it's the Bills.

35. And here we go, the second-round quarterbacks start coming off the board. A lot of people think Ryan Mallett is destined to go here as the Bengals don't care about character, but Locker is the better prospect and the better fit for Jay Gruden's offensive scheme.

36. As RazorStar did in our mock draft game, I could easily see the Broncos taking two defensive tackles with their first two picks. Ballard is one of my sleepers in this draft because I think he's a first-round prospect.

37. Cleveland needs a big play receiver badly, so I think Baldwin would be a great pick here in the second round. I don't get some of the scouts downplaying his ability; he's got the physical tools to be an elite playmaker and he doesn't have as many red flags as some have claimed.

38. The Cardinals draft their board, so after getting some pass rush with Von Miller in the first, Rudolph makes a lot of sense here. He's a first-round prospect who will ultimately fall because of the lack of value at the tight end position.

39. Here's another quarterback off the board. This is something of a shot in the dark--Tennessee could take any quarterback here--but I have a feeling Jeff Fisher will fall in love with Mallett's tangibles, as he did with Chris Johnson.

40. Dallas' cornerbacks were awful in 2010, but they had zero help over the top in Alan Ball. I think there's a very good chance they sign Michael Huff as a free agent, but since free agency will most likely occur after the draft, the playmaking Moore is the pick here.

41. If the Redskins don't take a quarterback in the first round (trading down or not), they'll definitely go for one here. I think Mike Shanahan would very much like either Jake Locker or Dalton, and only one of them is still on the board at this point.

42. If the Texans get a pass rusher in the first round, I expect this pick to be a nose tackle or a cornerback. Phil Taylor is long gone, so the pick is Harris, a guy whose stock has fallen because Michael Floyd ate him up, but you can't use that to negate the great season he had.

43. I think taking Kaepernick would be a good situation for Minnesota: he's a project they could develop, and in the meantime, they can give Joe Webb some playing time or trade for a stopgap veteran. In either case, there's no way I see Minnesota leaving this draft without a quarterback in the first two rounds.

44. Once again, the Lions draft the highest player on their board. Hard to say who that would be in this case but Wisniewski makes a lot of sense, especially since he would upgrade the offensive line, something Detroit did not do with their first pick of this mock.

45. I used to think the 49ers would have to trade up to grab Ponder, but now I believe injury concerns and inconsistent tape will drop him to this pick. He's an accurate passer, an ideal fit in the west coast offense that Jim Harbaugh is bringing to San Francisco.

46. After getting two talented defensive tackles, the Broncos get something of a best-player-available pick here in Hankerson, a prospect who will scare off a lot of teams with his drops, but still deserves to go in the second round.

47. The Rams got a defensive lineman with their first pick, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab another one here, but Leshore is very good value, and would be a nice future replacement for Steven Jackson.

48. With no first round pick, the Raiders are in a tough spot. They should be trying to get a quarterback out of this class but may have to trade up to do so. In this case, Stanzi is worth the pick. His decision making at Iowa was far from admirable but can be coached at the next level.

49. Here's another pedestrian pick for the Jaguars. Nothing too flashy, but a solid pick nonetheless. And hey, Hudson is a local product from Florida State.

50. Ijalana's stock has been skyrocketing as of late, and he may go much higher than this, but he makes a lot of sense for the Chargers, who have needed an upgrade at right tackle for years.

51. After Aqib Talib's arrest it became apparent that he may face jail time. That is a serious concern for the Bucs and it means they could make cornerback a much higher draft priority than they were initially anticipating. In that case, Dowling would be a great pick here, a talented press corner with plenty of upside.

52. Watkins is talented enough to go much higher than this, but his age (turns 27 in November) will make some teams balk. He seems a good fit for the Giants here, however, who have several aging offensive linemen. It wouldn't surprise me to see them target the offensive line with their first two picks, as I have them doing here.

53. The Colts could really use an impact outside linebacker. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have been causing havoc for opposing offenses for awhile, but how much better could they be if the Colts improved the front seven around them?

54. Mike Mayock thinks Austin's stock is rising to the point that he'll go in the first round. I don't think he's there yet, but he could be by the time draft day rolls around. In the meantime, he makes sense for the Eagles here. Philly would be perhaps wiser to take a cornerback here, but Andy Reid loves taking linemen when they're the highest player on his board.

55. Here's another sleeper for you. (Shout out to Sarge for drafting him in the mock draft game.) Little is an immensely talented receiver and apparently scouts are starting to notice. He makes sense for the Chiefs because Dwayne Bowe is terribly inconsistent and beyond Dexter McCluster (who may be more of utility guy), who do they have? Kevin Curtis? Chris Chambers?

56. As I pointed out during my breakdown of the NFC South, Saints offensive tackles Jermon Bushrod and Jon Stinchcomb gave up an insane amount of quarterback pressures in 2010. If the Saints want to keep Drew Brees in the pocket, they'd be wise to upgrade at tackle.

57. Here's another prospect who has quietly crept into the second round discussion. After mocking Jimmy Smith to the Hawks in the first round, drafting a defensive end would make a lot of sense here.

58. The Ravens need a receiver who can stretch the field. Smith would provide that instantly, as well as some help in the return game. He may have limited upside, but he's well worth the pick for Baltimore here.

59. I could see Atlanta getting Kyle Rudolph with their first pick (especially if they trade down), but if they don't they'll be on the lookout for Tony Gonzalez's replacement in round two. In a bad class of tight ends, Stocker fits the bill.

60. I considered Sam Acho as a second rookie pass rusher for the Pats, but they have Jermaine Cunningham in the wings. For now, House adds talent to the secondary and would pair nicely with Devon McCourty.

61. The Shawne Merriman era is long gone, and the Larry English era may never begin. San Diego could use another rush linebacker.

62. Nevis is another sleeper for me. He may have limited upside but he's got great tape and was very productive at LSU. He addresses maybe Chicago's biggest need at defensive tackle.

63. After getting a playmaker in the secondary, will the Steelers reach for an offensive lineman here? Hell no, they'll draft their board. At this point in this mock, it's anybody's guess who that would be but Cobb makes sense. After trading Santonio Holmes and realizing that Limas Sweed sucks, they have room to groom another young wideout.

64. Back-to-back receivers to close out the second round? Well yeah. The Packers could use another young receiver with Donald Driver aging and James Jones set to leave via free agency.

 

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Future Mock Drafts

I'll probably do mock draft 5.0 sometime between next weekend and the weekend after that, depending on how much changes during that time, and in that mock I'll be predicting trades. Then, either the night before or day of round one of the draft, I'll post mock draft 6.0, my final mock of the year.

[Purple Pride 4]

I hate this draft for the Vikings TBH. I think you know how I feel on DE from how much I have posted on you picking a DE in the past and Colin is probably the worst QB in this draft. I think he needs the most help coming out of college. Just my thoughts. Nice draft all around though.

[SteVo+ 3,702]

I hate this draft for the Vikings TBH. I think you know how I feel on DE from how much I have posted on you picking a DE in the past and Colin is probably the worst QB in this draft. I think he needs the most help coming out of college. Just my thoughts. Nice draft all around though.

 

I agree with you that the Vikings are high on whatever that DE's name is, otherwise they wouldn't have signed him to that contract. But I feel like with a potential lockout and free agency having not occurred yet, most teams will play it safe and just draft their boards. And, if the Vikings are going to take a tackle, they would need a left tackle, right? Since Phil Loadholt plays right tackle. Some scouts believe Anthony Castonzo is better suited as a right tackle. Do you really think the Vikes would reach for Nate Solder?

[Purple Pride 4]

TBH, I wouldn't mind reaching for Pouncey. I think everyone knows we need a Center and he could be that man. If someone like Prince or Tyron Smith. We could possibly (not saying even 20%) but if your saying Free Agency. Why not take Julio Jones ? Sidney Rice could be gone and Percy would be our only good wide out. Could you see that happening ?

[SteVo+ 3,702]

I believe I gave you guys Julio Jones in one of my earlier mocks. The Vikings could go a lot of ways; they're one of the tougher teams to mock for this year. I see them trading up or down, to be honest.

[Purple Pride 4]

I believe I gave you guys Julio Jones in one of my earlier mocks. The Vikings could go a lot of ways; they're one of the tougher teams to mock for this year. I see them trading up or down, to be honest.

+1 That is what I have been thinking, but you can't predict that until the draft hits.

[Packers Dynasty 2010 116]

Like GB picking a WR as we are going to need 1. I hope we are able to draft a WR and sign Jones. Allow drafted WR to be our #5 WR and eventually replace DD or allow Nelson to walk next offseason. Jernigan could be a good pickup cause his returning skills but I personally want GB to target a taller WR to complete our receiving core.

[Tridentdawgpound 1,043]

I wouldn't be all too happy with not having a DE/DT/LB after the first two rounds.

[SteVo+ 3,702]

I wouldn't be all too happy with not having a DE/DT/LB after the first two rounds.

 

Be prepared, because Heckert is gonna draft his board.

[Favre4Ever+ 4,476]

Call it a gut feeling. But we aren't taking Heyward. I think he will fall to Cleveland in the 2nd.

[Zack_of_Steel+ 3,014]

Don't think there's any way they draft another short receiver with their second pick. Ward, Wallace, Sanders, Brown, and then a second round pick on Cobb? Just don't see it.

 

Plus, the Steelers are notorious for drafting for need in the second round and often missing big. I think they'll go OL, DB, or DL there.

Edited April 9, 2011 by Zack_of_Steel

[Turry 755]

Though you didin't like houston going to chicago stevo ?

[SteVo+ 3,702]

Though you didin't like houston going to chicago stevo ?

 

Changed my mind. Though I have a feeling my next mock will have you guys taking Ijalana.

[HadenIsland23 42]

Love the CB/WR combo in the first two rounds!

[AllYouNeedIsLovie 377]

Love those first 2 rounds for the Bucs. Bowers is very talented and pass rush is our biggest need and we definately need a CB now with Talib in trouble.

[RANGA+ 1,210]

Even though Peterson would be the BPA at that point, I'd be surprised if the Browns actually took him, after taking Haden in the first last year. Though he really shouldn't fall past the Cards, as they should be going BPA at that position as well.

 

I like the Ponder pick in the second for the 49ers. He's really the only QB in this class I'd be happy with us drafting.

[Xaos 1]

Won't pick a defensive tackle in the first round (Falcons). We've got 3 young, good defensive tackles. Its one of our best spots. if Houston is still on the board, we're taking him.

[videofreak8 5]

One thing I don't see, Ingram falling to the Pats in the second

[DonovanMcnabb for H.O.F 2,241]

I'd be happy if we got Julio Jones, but I would be extremely disappointed if we spent both our 1st and 2nd round picks on offensive players. Especially with Bruce Carter available in the second.